Cold Spell Discussion cont: Tuesday, Wednesday - more heavy snow risk

darkman2 · 21-02-2010 12:05pm #1

Next days to watch are Tuesday and Wednesday. The far South of the country may escape with just rain but the rest of the country is at risk of some heavy snowfall (far more then last night). Discuss the prosects.

GFS has prospects further North over Ulster whilst the ECM has it further South principally over Leinster. UKMO has a happy medium. Things will chop and change over the next 24hrs but big potential on Tuesday/Wednesday.

Bicycle · 21-02-2010 12:15pm

Sadly it would appear that the "No Snow Zone" over Limerick continues to remain in spite of us no longer having a "Great Defender"

Enjoy the snow, those of you who have it.

DOCARCH · 21-02-2010 12:24pm

Looking really interesting atm but another close call, probably another nowcast situation (as ever).

BTW DM2, love the way you say the south may 'escape' with just rain!

Some sort of consolation for them? Like how could anybody want snow?

Danno · 21-02-2010 12:33pm

The last fax chart posted above would be of serious concern as the 528dam line is too far north, especially with a system that comes up from the south.

If the centre of that low was shunted further east, effectivley closing the Biscay route and drawing in air from France via England, Wales then us, I'd be a little more confident...

Unless the models come up with something better, then i'd say no to this one DM2.

Danno · 21-02-2010 12:40pm

The BBC Weather for The Week Ahead will feature within the Country Tracks program around 11.45am to 11.50am (in around 5 or 10 minutes) on BBC1 today. Sky Channel 141.

Redsunset · 21-02-2010 12:57pm

poor country track forecast

darkman2 · 21-02-2010 1:15pm

redsunset wrote: »

poor country track forecast

I would not take too much notice of that. It's a marginal situation with a few miles being the difference between rain and snow. The 00z GFS, for example, had widespread snowfall Wednesday night and the ECM does not agree with the UK Met Office on the posistioning of Low Pressure which makes a really big difference to the prospects.

Looks like either way Ulster is gauranteed a hammering on Tuesday and Wednesday.

BTW the 06z GFS, whilst it brings snow for a time to many areas on Tuesday, is actually on the mild side of the ensembles (the thick green line). The average (the thick white line) indicates more wintry conditions then the op run.

Redsunset · 21-02-2010 1:22pm

Oh i know its not gospel and will swing to and fro and will end up being a nowcast i feel.

As for the north like you said,the UKMO sure have some confidence for wintryness.

Northern Ireland: Co Antrim
Co Armagh
Co Derry
Co Down
Co Fermanagh
Co Tyrone
Heavy Snow Wed 24 Feb
There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting parts of the UK. Rain spreading north may turn to snow and has the potential to give accumulations of more than 15 cm of fresh snow in places.
Issued at: 1042 Sat 20 Feb

ch750536 · 21-02-2010 1:30pm

darkman2 wrote: »

Next days to watch are Tuesday and Wednesday. The far South of the country may escape with just rain but the ...

What do you mean, escape?

darkman2 · 21-02-2010 1:39pm

ch750536 wrote: »

What do you mean, escape?

They could have a more pleasant commute to work on Wednesday then areas further North.;)

darkman2 · 21-02-2010 1:42pm

redsunset wrote: »

Oh i know its not gospel and will swing to and fro and will end up being a nowcast i feel.

As for the north like you said,the UKMO sure have some confidence for wintryness.

Northern Ireland: Co Antrim
Co Armagh
Co Derry
Co Down
Co Fermanagh
Co Tyrone
Heavy Snow Wed 24 Feb
There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting parts of the UK. Rain spreading north may turn to snow and has the potential to give accumulations of more than 15 cm of fresh snow in places.
Issued at: 1042 Sat 20 Feb

This is what the UKMO shows precip and temperature rise. Clearly North Leinster and Ulster in the firing line. But further south too. Places like Dublin for example - alot of precipitation and temperatures 1 - 3C.

U72-594.GIF?21-06

But it will change over the next few runs. Risk could be further South or further North.

Min · 21-02-2010 1:43pm

Hope we escape, I hope Dublin doesn't get snow either since that would be a national disaster

That said, we had snow last night while in Kilkenny city they had none, so one never knows.

DOCARCH · 21-02-2010 1:54pm

Sorry misread post above - no comment!

21-02-2010 1:58pm

darkman2 wrote: »

This is what the UKMO shows precip and temperature rise. Clearly North Leinster and Ulster in the firing line. But further south too. Places like Dublin for example - alot of precipitation and temperatures 1 - 3C.

But it will change over the next few runs. Risk could be further South or further North.

The country tracks forecast on BBC one had rain for everywhere south of Ulster and bits of north connaught.
Any class of an East wind coming in off the irish sea with no real cold source and with a positive dewpoint will ensure rain in Dublin below 800ft asl.

21-02-2010 2:04pm

redsunset wrote: »

poor country track forecast

Indeed.
What darkman2 is not taking into account is that winds from the irish sea with no lengthy cold surface feed,will bring in positive dewpoints.
Thinking otherwise I'm sad to say is dreaming.

Remember the famous sunday snow in the early january spell, that cork got but we didn't get on the East?
Twas a lot colder then than it is now and it rained due to the positive dewpoints/warmer air advection from the irish sea ie no real cold source left.

Lets not let dreaming over rule basic weather science.

That low pressure going a few 10's of miles north or south of where it is will change who gets snow on high ground and 20 miles plus inland but it will not make a half worth of difference on the coast in the East.

patneve2 · 21-02-2010 2:14pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Indeed.
What darkman2 is not taking into account is that winds from the irish sea with no lengthy cold surface feed,will bring in positive dewpoints.
Thinking otherwise I'm sad to say is dreaming.

Remember the famous sunday snow in the early january spell, that cork got but we didn't get on the East?
Twas a lot colder then than it is now and it rained due to the positive dewpoints/warmer air advection from the irish sea ie no real cold source left.

Lets not let dreaming over rule basic weather science.

That low pressure going a few 10's of miles north or south of where it is will change who gets snow on high ground and 20 miles plus inland but it will not make a half worth of difference on the coast in the East.

You also have to take into account the fact that SSTs are about 1.5 to 2 degrees colder now than in the Jan cold spell (m2 Buoy is @ 7.6 degrees).

darkman2 · 21-02-2010 2:17pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Indeed.
What darkman2 is not taking into account is that winds from the irish sea with no lengthy cold surface feed,will bring in positive dewpoints.
Thinking otherwise I'm sad to say is dreaming.

Remember the famous sunday snow in the early january spell, that cork got but we didn't get on the East?
Twas a lot colder then than it is now and it rained due to the positive dewpoints/warmer air advection from the irish sea ie no real cold source left.

Lets not let dreaming over rule basic weather science.

That low pressure going a few 10's of miles north or south of where it is will change who gets snow on high ground and 20 miles plus inland but it will not make a half worth of difference on the coast in the East.

Nonsense. Im well able to read the charts and take all factors into account. For example if you don't think the ECM charts above would bring an appreciable amounts of snow to Eastern coastal counties then I don't think you are reading the charts properly and seem unfamiliar with the dynamics surrounding a frontal event. We don't need a cold air source - the cold air is already over us and that won't change until the fronts clear through - which won't happen incidentally. Dew Points should remain around 0C generally or a little below. (Away from Southern and maybe Southeastern areas but that's uncertain)

Min · 21-02-2010 2:17pm

Snow risk this week - south and east according to Evelyn.

21-02-2010 2:35pm

darkman2 wrote: »

Nonsense. Im well able to read the charts and take all factors into account. For example if you don't think the ECM charts above would bring an appreciable amounts of snow to Eastern coastal counties then I don't think you are reading the charts properly and seem unfamiliar with the dynamics surrounding a frontal event. We don't need a cold air source - the cold air is already over us and that won't change until the fronts clear through - which won't happen incidentally. Dew Points should remain around 0C generally or a little below.

Even Evylyn just now mentioned "away from the coasts" darkman2.

I see so you think that the less cold air coming in off the sea with higher dewpoints is somehow going to magically deliver snow when colder 850's last january [the day cork got its snow as it had a land breeze] delivered rain?

I'd like to borrow your magic wand please with all due respect because thats what I'll need

The risk is for high ground and well inland.

Takeshi_Kovacs · 21-02-2010 2:39pm

Do ye think higher ground in southwest will get more snow, there's a substantial thaw on at the moment, especially on sunnier slopes. I am hoping to get out next weekend and do some hiking, and would be nice if there was some left.

JanuarySnowstor · 21-02-2010 2:40pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Indeed.
What darkman2 is not taking into account is that winds from the irish sea with no lengthy cold surface feed,will bring in positive dewpoints.
Thinking otherwise I'm sad to say is dreaming.

Remember the famous sunday snow in the early january spell, that cork got but we didn't get on the East?
Twas a lot colder then than it is now and it rained due to the positive dewpoints/warmer air advection from the irish sea ie no real cold source left.

.

I think your pbly right, the air isnt cold enough midweek to prevent coastal areas of the East seeing rain. Uppers would want to be at -10 not flirting -5's, with thickness's also margnal. I would think the North midlands is at risk, that's about it.
Also Dublin city holds in a little heat which was demonstrated last night when places like Swords and Naas got a lot more than Dublin city.

As for the South, we are the wrong side of marginal all week with little chance of falling snow. Bitterly cold nights to come though which sums up this incredible Winter i.e freezing cold yet very little snow!

Min · 21-02-2010 2:41pm

Met Eireann seem to be using charts with white for snow now, maybe I missed them before but yeah it looks like snow for inland areas of the east and south.

darkman2 · 21-02-2010 2:52pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Even Evylyn just now mentioned "away from the coasts" darkman2.

I see so you think that the less cold air coming in off the sea with higher dewpoints is somehow going to magically deliver snow when colder 850's last january [the day cork got its snow as it had a land breeze] delivered rain?

I'd like to borrow your magic wand please with all due respect because thats what I'll need

The risk is for high ground and well inland.

No, she did not mention, "away from the coasts" - even if she did I don't particularly need to pay attention to what she says anyway considering the charts are right in front of us.

The setup coming is very different to the one you are referencing. Firstly SST's are at the lowest point of the year. Secondly the rotation is taking precipitation out of the UK where it will also be snowing. Thirdly 850 temps of -4 or lower are all that are required in a frontal event as things like evaporative cooling take place. You want to reference an event - then take a look at the 1982 statistics. If that was progged tomorrow you would no doubt be talking about the wind off the sea. 850 temps where -4 generally and sub -5 to the North. The temperatures progged in the Irish Sea by the UKMO are 2 or 3 degrees in the North Irish Sea, 4 or 5C further South. 2 or 3C and sub zero dew points over the sea is not magically going to turn the snow from Britain back to rain like a click of a finger. It may be different closer to where you are as SST's may be slightly higher there (again it's very uncertain) but here the UKMO progs temps 1 - 3C, Irish Sea temps 2 or 3C and 850's at -4 along with persistent precipitation. Not that I think the UKMO is cert to come off. All the models are contradictory to some extent atm. So in this case this argument is elementary because things are so marginal as regards posistioning that a few miles here or there is the difference. But I don't support this theory of yours that a wind off the Irish sea automatically = no snow. Clearly it does not. And probrably won't on Tuesday either especially further North up the coast.

66-574.GIF?21-6

Just using GFS there as example of why BB is wrong with automatic assumptions about Dew Points in the Irish Sea. Of course it is very possible we could end up the wrong side of marginal - but equally possible things will favour snow even more.

nacho libre · 21-02-2010 2:55pm

Evelyn has it on the cold side all week. still it wouldn't surprise me if in fact the fronts come further north than anticipated and it gets relatively milder.. though i think it's safe to say we won't see double figures anytime soon.

anyway glad to see some of the people who were snow starved got to see some sneachta last night.

Su Campu · 21-02-2010 3:02pm

darkman2 wrote: »

No, she did not mention, "away from the coasts" - even if she did I don't particularly need to pay attention to what she says anyway considering the charts are right in front of us.

That's a bit of an arrogant statement, don't you think?

21-02-2010 3:09pm

Darkman2.. in january 1982,temperatures in Britain especially most of wales off which we were getting a fast gale force surface feed were sub zero.

We don't have that this week.
It's a crucial difference.
What we do have is a circulation that runs up through rain in southern Britain,runs through snow in colder central Britain and then gets remodified whilst crossing the irish sea.

Eveylyn did mention away from coasts and she's said that to be realistic.

Heres the air temps over Britain today before the irish sea gets to work on them

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=united%20kingdom&wuSelect=WEATHER

Cardiff is 7c which is a hell of a difference from the daytime surface feed of january 1982.

Like should be compared with like.

JanuarySnowstor · 21-02-2010 3:10pm

Su Campu wrote: »

That's a bit of an arrogant statement, don't you think?

I didn't hear her say "away from coasts" and if she did she was clearly talking about Southern areas. Met Eireann have been proved wrong time and time again and the likes of us have been right so why shouldn't he and we be arrogant!

I think BB has a fair assesment but who knows, certainly not Met Eireann imo

darkman2 · 21-02-2010 3:11pm

Su Campu wrote: »

That's a bit of an arrogant statement, don't you think?

Not at all. She is using the exact same charts as us. Certain people on here, at this stage, should be well capable of making forecasts without having to go near the media at all. It actually makes me laugh when people say "the Eagle" said this....."Evelyn" said that.....as if it means something. It means nothing because if you can read the charts - they are right there in front of you and it is very easy to come to your own conclusions often in far more detail then any media broadcast.

JanuarySnowstor · 21-02-2010 3:14pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Darkman2.. in january 1982,temperatures in .

Heres the air temps over Britain today before the irish sea gets to work on them

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=united%20kingdom&wuSelect=WEATHER

Cardiff is 7c which is a hell of a difference from the daytime surface feed of january 1982.

Like should be compared with like.

In all fairness that temp has been taken in likely sunny conditions, middle of the day. With heavy ppn they would likely be 1-2C
I agree it looks very marginal throughout the week, but darkman's has a point in that there is potential for snow. I think somewhere between both your views lies the truth!

darkman2 · 21-02-2010 3:15pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Darkman2.. in january 1982,temperatures in Britain especially most of wales off which we were getting a fast gale force surface feed were sub zero.

We don't have that this week.
It's a crucial difference.
What we do have is a circulation that runs up through rain in southern Britain,runs through snow in colder central Britain and then gets remodified whilst crossing the irish sea.

Eveylyn did mention away from coasts and she's said that to be realistic.

Heres the air temps over Britain today before the irish sea gets to work on them

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=united%20kingdom&wuSelect=WEATHER

Cardiff is 7c which is a hell of a difference from the daytime surface feed of january 1982.

Like should be compared with like.

It's much more complex then what your making out. I will tell you what. The simplist way to know is to wait till Tuesday and we will see who is right and who is wrong. If, things don't change radically, and we end up with an Easterly or Northeasterly and rain then I will gladly admit to being wrong.

JanuarySnowstor · 21-02-2010 3:16pm

darkman2 wrote: »

Not at all. She is using the exact same charts as us. Certain people on here, at this stage, should be well capable of making forecasts without having to go near the media at all. It actually makes me laugh when people say "the Eagle" said this....."Evelyn" said that.....as if it means something. It means nothing because if you can read the charts - they are right there in front of you and it is very easy to come to your own conclusions often in far more detail then any media broadcast.

I rarely watch the weather now since we have access to the charts.
They are nearly always working on old models, though I do find the beeb very accurate and got last nights ppn and timing frightenly accurate!!

Su Campu · 21-02-2010 3:17pm

darkman2 wrote: »

Not at all. She is using the exact same charts as us. Certain people on here, at this stage, should be well capable of making forecasts without having to go near the media at all. It actually makes me laugh when people say "the Eagle" said this....."Evelyn" said that.....as if it means something. It means nothing because if you can read the charts - they are right there in front of you and it is very easy to come to your own conclusions often in far more detail then any media broadcast.

Weather forecasting is a lot more than just reading charts.

darkman2 · 21-02-2010 3:19pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I rarely watch the weather now since we have access to the charts.
They are nearly always working on old models, though I do find the beeb very accurate and got last nights ppn and timing frightenly accurate!!

I agree. Hence why I very rarely watch or listen to any forecast aswell. We don't need to in reality.

JanuarySnowstor · 21-02-2010 3:21pm

Su Campu wrote: »

Weather forecasting is a lot more than just reading charts.

And people who get paid for doing it should give it their best effort, not go on the 9 0'clock weather using the morning's ECM charts etc.
We are all amateurs on here and as far as I can see do a better job, albeit ramping the cold a bit!

darkman2 · 21-02-2010 3:23pm

Su Campu wrote: »

Weather forecasting is a lot more than just reading charts.

Yes, of course it is, but the charts are the end product after a complex system of analysis. TV forecasts are simply presentational for the masses, not complicated, because they don't need to be. They are not overly useful in the context of the wide variety of information openly available online.

Su Campu · 21-02-2010 3:24pm

I don't think I've ever seen a global pattern like this, with a practically straight polar jet and complete absence of Rossby waves. :eek:

darkman2 · 21-02-2010 3:25pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

And people who get paid for doing it should give it their best effort, not go on the 9 0'clock weather using the morning's ECM charts etc.
We are all amateurs on here and as far as I can see do a better job, albeit ramping the cold a bit!

In fairness, the BBC is somewhat better updated from the UKMO a number of times a day.

21-02-2010 3:34pm

I find it disappointing,the dissing of an experienced qualified,university educated in the field meteorologist like Evylyn here.
The fact that people think that the UK met office don't change their forecast run to run if necessary or base it on one from time to time is also disappointing.

Noaa openly discuss which run they use / which model they think is performing best at the time.

Su Campu · 21-02-2010 3:36pm

darkman2 wrote: »

In fairness, the BBC is somewhat better updated from the UKMO a number of times a day.

So are Met Éireann

darkman2 · 21-02-2010 3:42pm

Su Campu wrote: »

So are Met Éireann

No, they don't. They use the 00z ECM until the following 00z ECM, occasionally dipping into that other model they use for short range, HIRLAM. Completely inadequate in this day and age.

BB nobody is dissing any particular forecaster in Met Éireann. Simply being realistic about an organisation that leaves alot to be desired in it's service to the public which we pay for. It's completely inadequate. Look at the Iceland Meteorlogical Agency - that is what Met Éireann should be asspiring to emulate, without Earthquake analysis of course.

The UK do change their forecasts (daily), of course, but you can hardly compare the UK Met Office to Met Éireann in terms of incompetency in public relations (though the UKMO do have their own issues with supposed AGW).

WolfeIRE · 21-02-2010 3:47pm

Some heavy precip heading my way. very slow moving

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/

Temp is 3c.

Su Campu · 21-02-2010 3:48pm

darkman2 wrote: »

No, they don't. They use the 00z ECM until the following 00z ECM, occasionally dipping into that other model they use for short range, HIRLAM. Completely inadequate in this day and age.

.

Met Éireann DO use the UKMO and have a cooperative agreement with Exeter. Unless that's changed in the last year or so.

darkman2 · 21-02-2010 3:56pm

Su Campu wrote: »

Met Éireann DO use the UKMO and have a cooperative agreement with Exeter. Unless that's changed in the last year or so.

I have never seen them use UKMO data charts - im not aware of any agreement with them other then co operation through the ECMWF and on bouy's and data and the like. Met Éireann have a short range model they contribute to development with the Nordic States AFAIK. That's what they use for short range. It's uselessness illustrated wonderfully last night once again incidentally.

jasperok · 21-02-2010 3:57pm

hey wolfire
How long will that take to come our way?
Also dows anyone know what the chance of icey roads are for the next few days? in the clare area? Ikeep on seeing predictions on yr.no for -4 etc but no ice on the rooad then in the morning...

Su Campu · 21-02-2010 3:59pm

They use HIRLAM, ECMWF, UKMO and DWD. Read this

WolfeIRE · 21-02-2010 4:01pm

jasperok wrote: »

hey wolfire
How long will that take to come our way?
Also dows anyone know what the chance of icey roads are for the next few days? in the clare area? Ikeep on seeing predictions on yr.no for -4 etc but no ice on the rooad then in the morning...

those road surface temps would be about right for 8am jasperok. this is a great guide for you. ennis is included http://www.nra.ie/RoadWeatherInfo/Map/data/htm/WeatherTable.htm

That precip will affect a line north west from Lissycasey to Ennis to Gort. Very slow moving. Will be a wintry mix but nothing to get to excited about unless you are on top of Mount Callan or Slieve Elva.

darkman2 · 21-02-2010 4:10pm

Su Campu wrote: »

They use HIRLAM, ECMWF, UKMO and DWD. Read this

They might use UKMO charts in house but I have never seen UKMO charts on a televised forecast from Met Éireann - have you? Or a DWD forecast? It's always HIRLAM and ECM charts. There is nothing stopping anybody from looking at charts from any model. (HIRLAM charts are available on wetterzentrale btw). But if they do have an agreement to be able to publish and use UKMO charts I have never seen them do it. And if that is the case then we really don't need Met Éireann at all. We can just get rid of it and let the UKMO do our forecasts.

Su Campu · 21-02-2010 4:21pm

darkman2 wrote: »

They might use UKMO charts in house but I have never seen UKMO charts on a televised forecast from Met Éireann - have you? Or a DWD forecast? It's always HIRLAM and ECM charts. There is nothing stopping anybody from looking at charts from any model. (HIRLAM charts are available on wetterzentrale btw). But if they do have an agreement to be able to publish and use UKMO charts I have never seen them do it. And if that is the case then we really don't need Met Éireann at all. We can just get rid of it and let the UKMO do our forecasts.

We (or at least I) was talking about what models they use for guidance when making their forecasts - which charts they display on RTE are of no importance. I seem to remember seeing Evelyn using UKMO (labelling it as such) on a transmission once but stand to be corrected on that. But in any case it's not important, as their work is done at that stage and the charts are purely there for window dressing in most cases. To say they get a whole forecast wrong because they only display two models on the TV is laughable

darkman2 · 21-02-2010 4:33pm

I have no issue with Met Éireann using a variety of models - we use even more here and that's confusing enough but my issue is the service they give to the public. The website is a joke for example. I don't see what the harm is in sticking up some ECM synoptic and temperature charts for example like other websites do. There is not enough information on the Met Éireann website. The television forecasts, whilst I appreciate they go further then most other broadcasters in terms of timeline, are often incorrect although the average viewer will not realise it. They are incorrect because they consistently use 00z charts throughout the day and don't put up the 12z updates. It's the same on the radio bulletins. I cannot understand why that is. It is a major bug bear of mine. The warnings - the warnings are completely inadequate and how many times have Met Éireann failed to give appropriate warnings last year? Then there are all the other occasions of simply wrong outlooks. Im tiring talking about it. It's the incompetency that get's to me.

Anyway back OT. 12z charts coming out soon so we may have a better idea where we stand in relation to Tuesday.

12z GME is the first out

That's more like what we want to see for Tuesday/Wednesday....

21-02-2010 4:54pm

Eveylyns exact words,I've just re watched it on the farming forecast were "Turning to snow further inland".
Thats away from the coast in anyone's parlance.
She said that in the context of the rain system moving up over the country and in the context of the East in particular.
The guidance she was using in the putting together of that forecast was no doubt telling her that the main thrust of the system based on the models she had available [at the time] was going into the UK.I've no doubt the guidance included the big three.

As for the graphics used on the tv forecasts,I'll have to say that I'm on su campu's side here in that Glasnevin will be sharing any information the UK met and others have.
We will have to be advecting colder air than I'm see'ing currently likely to be available tuesday for coastal snow in the East and that means in Dublin,you'll need to be at Lamb doyles or above or nearby for results.
It's a possibility for sure that even there will have rain and if something changes turning things colder,that we all will see snow.
Right now,I'm going for coastal sleety rain.

If I'm to be convinced otherwise something will have to change.
My opinion is based on,looking at the runs,looking at various tv forecasts and my experience of past events over a few decades of weather watching.
I think if I'm wrong something will have to have changed.

darkman2 · 21-02-2010 4:59pm

12z GFS is more progressive then the European models bringing much milder air into the Southern half of the country on Wednesday with some snow ahead of rain. Not great. Winds go Southerly in fact. Really only Northern parts of Ulster getting appreciable snowfall. Wait to see what the UKMO has later and the ECM.

Cold Spell Discussion cont: Tuesday, Wednesday - more heavy snow risk

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