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24-06-2020, 22:06   #1
Kermit.de.frog
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Thursday/Friday: Lightning Storms, Flash Flooding Event Thread





Could be a memorable event tomorrow evening and overnight for many and deserves it's own thread.

It should all kick off around early afternoon with elevated storms developing in the southeast, from then on the atmosphere gets ever more unstable and storms breaking out widely through the evening with increasing intensity leading to spectacular scenes for some.

Most places can expect to see lightning either over head or in the distance but perhaps midlands and northwest might go a little beyond the storms elsewhere in terms of intensity.

We'll be keeping an eye on potential multi-cellular storm development too which is possible and could enhance conditions just about anywhere in the at risk zones.

National warning is currently yellow

Thursday evening until Friday sunrise are peak conditions



Areas most at risk:

East Connaught, Leinster, Ulster and East Munster

Warning of disruption:

Lightning, flash flooding

Irritant warning:

"I can't sleep"

Hot tomorrow in places with temperatures up to 28c, highest in the eastern half of the country.


Keep an eye on the storm thread for more technical discussion

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/show...58601&page=114


Last edited by Kermit.de.frog; 24-06-2020 at 22:41.
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24-06-2020, 22:38   #2
munsterlegend
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Kermit do you mean East Munster instead of West Munster? Would make more sense.
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24-06-2020, 22:42   #3
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Kermit do you mean East Munster instead of West Munster? Would make more sense.
ha! Yes
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24-06-2020, 23:00   #4
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I would dearly love to see an MCS again. It's an awesome sight.

Fully prepared for this to be a total flop though.
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24-06-2020, 23:02   #5
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Fully prepared for this to be a total flop though.




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24-06-2020, 23:36   #6
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So Liverpool could be crowned champions tomorrow with thunderstorms outside, if Carlsberg did Thursdays.......
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24-06-2020, 23:46   #7
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This this evening's radiosonde from Brest, NW France, the source of tomorrow evening's airmass up along the east coast. Strongly capped, with no SBCAPE and only slight MUCAPE from around 850-900 hPa. Uplift from the upper trough will be needed to cool upper lapse rates and overcome the cap tomorrow.

Surface dewpoints in the region are currently in the range 16-18 °C. I would say this will be the max we will acheive tomorrow too.



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25-06-2020, 00:03   #8
Kermit.de.frog
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Things look to be a lot juicier by tomorrow evening.

Quite the opportunity to exploit, very rarely do we get this potential.






Last edited by Kermit.de.frog; 25-06-2020 at 00:07.
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25-06-2020, 00:05   #9
km79
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Looks like mayo is going to miss all the “fun” !
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25-06-2020, 00:06   #10
Larbre34
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So Liverpool could be crowned champions tomorrow with thunderstorms outside, if Carlsberg did Thursdays.......
And they knock out the satellite telly....?
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25-06-2020, 00:07   #11
chris2007
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Is Dublin in the firing line
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25-06-2020, 00:09   #12
Gaoth Laidir
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The next frame in the WRF MUCAPE map is completely off the wall and totally unrealistic.

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25-06-2020, 00:09   #13
Kermit.de.frog
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Is Dublin in the firing line
Yes, very much so.

With the hit and miss proviso given the nature of showery pulses. But you have a very big chance of seeing lightning either overhead or close at some point over the next 36 hours.
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25-06-2020, 00:10   #14
Larbre34
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Is Dublin in the firing line
Yep.

But unlike anything else; snow, frontal rain, wind storms, a few kilometres either way could make a massive difference.
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25-06-2020, 00:10   #15
Larbre34
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Is Dublin in the firing line
Yep.

But unlike anything else; snow, frontal rain, wind storms, a few kilometres either way could make a massive difference.
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