Malaysia Airlines flight MH370-Updates and Discussion

knucklehead6 · 08-03-2014 4:14pm

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

Isn't there reports that the slick is 10/15 miles long. That either indicates the plane was in trouble for a while or was discarding fuel. If it exploded and dropped out of the sky there would be no long trail, no? But why was there no communication?

10 to 15 miles long is not exactly a huge distance. Drift patterns could easily allow for 10 miles over the timeframe since the plane went missingg

Dude111 · 08-03-2014 4:15pm

AlanMcC23 wrote:

This isnt looking good at all

No it isnt......

Its all very sad!!

Sully · 08-03-2014 4:15pm

An additional person on that flight list is alive and well, according to media reports on the Guardian Live Blog.

The latest is an Austrian, who had his passport stolen two years ago in Thailand.

Kavs8 · 08-03-2014 4:15pm

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

Isn't there reports that the slick is 10/15 miles long. That either indicates the plane was in trouble for a while or was discarding fuel. If it exploded and dropped out of the sky there would be no long trail, no? But why was there no communication?

Because it's basics physics the wreckage along with oil would drop out of the sky and in nearly all cases they land near each other. A trail of 10/15 miles would be an indication they are together even though the distance is quite large, an explosion would see wreckage land in lots of directions and as the oil has only been found it can't be discredited, it would make discovery of black boxes which have now no signal apparently very difficult as the wreckage would be dispersed within the ocean. Let's just hope (sounds wrong I know) that there was a different reason for this accident and that the boxes and passengers are recovered.

I do believe at this stage however with the oil slicks, it seems to have entered the water intact.

08-03-2014 4:16pm

Sully wrote: »

A third person on that flight list is alive and well, according to media reports on the Guardian Live Blog.

The latest is an Austrian, who had his passport stolen two years ago in Thailand.

I know about the Austrian and the italian, who is the third?

thanks.

Penny Tration · 08-03-2014 4:17pm

Sully wrote: »

An additional person on that flight list is alive and well, according to media reports on the Guardian Live Blog.

The latest is an Austrian, who had his passport stolen two years ago in Thailand.

Three stolen passports?!

This is getting very worrying

Sully · 08-03-2014 4:17pm

Jake1 wrote: »

I know about the Austrian and the italian, who is the third?

thanks.

Edited original post just as you replied, I was mistaken on the third.

bkehoe · 08-03-2014 4:17pm

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

Isn't there reports that the slick is 10/15 miles long. That either indicates the plane was in trouble for a while or was discarding fuel. If it exploded and dropped out of the sky there would be no long trail, no? But why was there no communication?

Ocean currents would disperse oil quickly. The slicks were probably seen 12 hours after the accident; plenty of time for them to stretch for miles.
I'd take the presence of slicks and especially the fact there's 2 to imply that there was at least some of the aircraft structure intact at point of impact as the fuel would probably not make it to the ocean, and evaporate long before if there was a major high altitude explosion which had ruptured the tanks.

Thrill · 08-03-2014 4:18pm

Austrian passport story now also confirmed. It was stolen two years ago.

Austrian Foreign Ministry spokesman Martin Weiss confirmed that a name listed on the manifest matches an Austrian passport reported stolen two years ago in Thailand. Weiss would not confirm the identity.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_ITALY_MALAYSIA_PLANE_?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2014-03-08-10-05-26

YbFocus · 08-03-2014 4:19pm

Sully wrote: »

Edited original post just as you replied, I was mistaken on the third.

I was like "As bad as two are, the third would have been the nail in the coffin"

Two is still very bad, I see that and the loss of comms and immediate dissapearence of the plane as two very big factors that point towards what I'd fear being the cause here.

Calina · 08-03-2014 4:20pm

Roger_007 wrote: »

There seemed to have been a lot of confusion over several hours about this accident, particularly about where the plane went missing. This seems to be the case every time a plane goes missing, particularly over water, and there is always speculation about whether the 'black' boxes can be recovered.
I cannot understand why the black box data is not relayed via satellite back to a central computer on a continuous real-time basis up to the point of loss of contact. That way the accident position could be immediately pinpointed and rescue efforts could me made without searching hundreds of square miles of ocean.
There would also not be such an imperative to find the black boxes to establish the cause of the accident.
Is there any need for black boxes anymore, other than as a backup device?

I would be careful about speculating in this direction. I strongly suspect that certain people knew reasonably where the plane disappeared. FlightRadar had a reasonably accurate view on it compared to comments now and I'd be stunned if the aircraft itself wasn't regularly and automatically reporting back to base. So I would be pretty sure that Malaysian either knew or were able to get their hands on a last known position report relatively quickly. In my view, you perhaps are mixing up a technical problem with a communications problem. One of the key issues appears to have been whether they had crossed out of Malaysian airspace or not and it seems to have been in the zone where they might have done that. I would not necessarily say that we don't appear to have known where the plane was, but that communications appear to have been chaotic.

With respect to the constant streaming data, it would be an ideal solution although it's probably dependent on a number of factors, a key one of which is getting a standard in place for it which would be uniformly used. As it is, we tend to know where a lot of modern aircraft are in the air already depending on local available coverage. In Europe, FlightRadar 24 is very good at this, and it looks like they may have been pretty much on the ball here too.

That being said, you also need to remember that even if we can pin point where the plane ran into problems, we need to know a) the weather and b) the behaviour of currents. Drift can be a problem here as well in terms of locating the aircraft. And depth is a massive issue in some cases although reportedly, in this case, depths of ca 100m max are being reported so probably not as hard to locate as the Air France one a few years back was.

I'd also have to add - one last thing - the black boxes are important but the other thing which contributes massively to air accident cause analysis is the state of the aircraft itself. You just can't be certain of the cause of an aircrash on the basis of the contents of the two data recorders and they contribute to finding the aircraft.

Incidents like this one really concern me though - the big thing with them is without the aircraft, we have no guarantee of identifying the cause. A massive amount is contributed to air safety by carrying out these investigations. We can't just rely on some data and hope it tells us what went wrong because if nothing else, usually it's a combination of things rather than an immediately obvious straight failure.

08-03-2014 4:20pm

reports that Vietnam detects signal from missing Plane.

The plane lost communication two hours into the flight in Vietnam's airspace at 1:20 a.m. (18:20 GMT Friday), China's official Xinhua News Agency said. Vietnamese website VN Express said a Vietnamese search and rescue official reported that signals from the plane were detected about 120 nautical miles (140 miles; 225 kilometers) southwest of Vietnam's southernmost Ca Mau province.

http://abclocal.go.com/wls/story?section=news/national_world&id=9458786

theKillerBite · 08-03-2014 4:26pm

Jake1 wrote: »

I know about the Austrian and the italian, who is the third?

thanks.

If they are both European passports, it wouldn't make sense that it could be local Chinese or Malaysian terrorists??

EI-DOR · 08-03-2014 4:32pm

If they are both European passports, it wouldn't make sense that it could be local Chinese or Malaysian terrorists??

Exactly. Doesn't add up. So no point speculating over the Passports at the minute!

Tigerandahalf · 08-03-2014 4:32pm

No reports of wreckage so far on the water so perhaps the plane was intact when it hit the water.

Reoil · 08-03-2014 4:34pm

YbFocus wrote: »

Two passport inconsistencies is getting worrying.

In Asia, I would consider this to be normal rather than irrational.

Calina · 08-03-2014 4:36pm

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

No reports of wreckage so far on the water so perhaps the plane was intact when it hit the water.

I have doubts about that depending on how fast it came down; it would have almost certainly had serious damage on impact leading to wreckage.

Kavs8 · 08-03-2014 4:37pm

Clear evidence so far is how the transponder abruptly stopped receiving altitude and speed information which it send out before quickly ceasing, altitude changed from 35,000ft and speed dropped from 468kts both to 0 within one minute, that would suggest data to the transponder was suddenly cut - there are all sorts of possibilities that could cause such a thing. I wouldn't rule out terrorism. I wouldn't say it is at the same time.

Tigerandahalf · 08-03-2014 4:39pm

Kavs8 wrote: »

Clear evidence so far is how the transponder abruptly stopped receiving altitude and speed information which it send out before quickly ceasing, altitude changed from 35,000ft and speed dropped from 468kts both to 0 within one minute, that would suggest data to the transponder was suddenly cut - there are all sorts of possibilities that could cause such a thing. I wouldn't rule out terrorism. I wouldn't say it is at the same time.

Is the transponder on the tail wing?

Reoil · 08-03-2014 4:39pm

If there has been no wreckage found so far and they know the general area of the last known location of the plane, then that would suggest that the plane was intact when it crashed.
If it was a bomb or structural damage then the debris should be pretty easy to locate as is would be pretty wide-spread.

fr336 · 08-03-2014 4:40pm

Reoil wrote: »

If there has been no wreckage found so far and they know the general area of the last known location of the plane, then that would suggest that the plane was intact when it crashed.
If it was a bomb or structural damage then the debris should be pretty easy to locate as is would be pretty wide-spread.

So what could we be looking at then?

08-03-2014 4:41pm

UPDATE [10:22pm]: Ships from Vietnam are about 130km from the site. Reports say they will reach in 1 1/2 to 2 hours time. Source (Vietnamese).

heres a link for yahoo malaysia, they seem to be on top on things news wise.

http://my.news.yahoo.com/mas-aircraft-goes-missing--says-airline-023820132.html

flight radar co founder
had this to say.

Mikael Robertsson, cofounder of FlightRadar24, which tracks about 120,000 flights per day with 3,000 receivers around the world, said the last transmission it recorded from the flight was at 35,000 feet. While it’s possible the plane veered into an area too far away from receivers to track it, he said that was unlikely.

“In this case, we have quite good coverage,” he said. “We had a very good stable signal and it just disappeared …. I don’t want to speculate, but something very sudden happened.” FlightRadar representatives also said they believed the plane had lost radar contact about 40 minutes into the flight, not two hours as the airline said.

Kavs8 · 08-03-2014 4:47pm

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

Is the transponder on the tail wing?

In a 777 I have no idea, possibly the forward electronics bay - but let me give my own input on possible scenarios;

Fire - They would have notified someone if they had a fire.

Engine Failure - no big deal.

Cabin fire - Would have declared emergency.

So what ever it was, it was spontaneous and abrupt, for a 777 with no history of such incidents that is worrying and the lines of enquiry reduce further.

Sully · 08-03-2014 4:52pm

Excuse my ignorance but if the flight went off radar within 40mins, why did ATA or whomever respond so late? Is it normal procedure to wait until the flight is expected to land before declaring an emergency?

Fred Swanson · 08-03-2014 4:52pm

This post has been deleted.

Tigerandahalf · 08-03-2014 4:53pm

Kavs8 wrote: »

In a 777 I have no idea, possibly the forward electronics bay - but let me give my own input on possible scenarios;

Fire - They would have notified someone if they had a fire.

Engine Failure - no big deal.

Cabin fire - Would have declared emergency.

So what ever it was, it was spontaneous and abrupt, for a 777 with no history of such incidents that is worrying and the lines of enquiry reduce further.

Is it possible for a pilot/person to disengage communication equipment if they had access to the cockpit? Thus for the flight to go sort of incognito?

Kavs8 · 08-03-2014 4:56pm

Sully wrote: »

Excuse my ignorance but if the flight went off radar within 40mins, why did ATA or whomever respond so late? Is it normal procedure to wait until the flight is expected to land before declaring an emergency?

For example with AF447 we heard about 6hrs after the event, I have no idea why they release it so late, but when a plane disappears of radar there is a minimum time I believe of 20 minutes of trying to contact the flight before a full emergency and recovery operation is declared. MAS in my own opinion have been very forth-coming with information, they previously had a 777 incident where both ADIRUs or IRS (navigation equipment) failed, the flight landed safely but this incident was worrying, it is possible they believed this was the problem - but eventually they did release details coupled with the fact the accident happened sometime after 1am in Malaysia, MAS released details after 7am which seems quick IMHO.

Kavs8 · 08-03-2014 4:57pm

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

Is it possible for a pilot/person to disengage communication equipment if they had access to the cockpit? Thus for the flight to go sort of incognito?

You can but there will always be a radar blip, as was the case in 9/11 - this flight disappeared from radar.

Fred Swanson · 08-03-2014 5:02pm

This post has been deleted.

Thrill · 08-03-2014 5:02pm

The view of the oil slick from a Vietnamese Air Force aircraft

http://nypost.com/2014/03/07/malaysia-airlines-loses-contact-with-plane-carrying-239/?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=NYPTwitter&utm_medium=SocialFlow

Kavs8 · 08-03-2014 5:03pm

Fred Swanson wrote: »

Could have they disabled the transponder so there would be no radar blip?

Nope that's not possible, definitely not on secondary radar which I believe they have in that area.

Tigerandahalf · 08-03-2014 5:05pm

I was reading that this was a flight after midnight. So similar to the Air France flight. One of the pilots could have been on a rest/sleep break away from the cockpit.
Does flightradar track through radar or GPS? If it hadn't been seen on radar for 40 mins what technology are flightradar using?

Kavs8 · 08-03-2014 5:08pm

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

I was reading that this was a flight after midnight. So similar to the Air France flight. One of the pilots could have been on a rest/sleep break away from the cockpit.
Does flightradar track through radar or GPS? If it hadn't been seen on radar for 40 mins what technology are flightradar using?

Flight was less then 6hrs long, only two flight deck crew.

Flightradar tracks using radar by getting access to the transponder code know as ADS-B.

Tigerandahalf · 08-03-2014 5:10pm

Kavs8 wrote: »

Flight was less then 6hrs long, only two flight deck crew.

So only 2 in total in the cockpit?

Kavs8 · 08-03-2014 5:11pm

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

So only 2 in total in the cockpit?

Indeed and a highly experienced captain.

EI-DOR · 08-03-2014 5:11pm

So only 2 in total in the cockpit?

Indeed!!

Calina · 08-03-2014 5:11pm

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

I was reading that this was a flight after midnight. So similar to the Air France flight. One of the pilots could have been on a rest/sleep break away from the cockpit.
Does flightradar track through radar or GPS? If it hadn't been seen on radar for 40 mins what technology are flightradar using?

http://www.flightradar24.com/how-it-works

Worth noting that Vietnam and Malaysia are, timewise, an hour apart. I have the impression there is a lot of confusion over the exact timeline which may be linked to that.

regards

Kavs8 · 08-03-2014 5:18pm

Calina wrote: »

http://www.flightradar24.com/how-it-works

Worth noting that Vietnam and Malaysia are, timewise, an hour apart. I have the impression there is a lot of confusion over the exact timeline which may be linked to that.

regards

Flight was scheduled to depart Kuala Lumpur at 00:35 local, arriving in Beijing at 06:30 local.

The flight departed at 00:41 local (16:41 GMT) and was off radar by 01:20 local Malaysia time or 00:20 local time in Vietnam (17:20 GMT).

Kavs8 · 08-03-2014 5:28pm

In what to me is the most surreal news ever, CNN's Business Traveller were filming both the Captain and First Officer of this flight on 19 February on a 777-200 from Hong Kong to Kuala Lumpur - Both looked like really nice lads.

http://edition.cnn.com/video/data/2.0/video/us/2014/03/08/newday-quest-malaysia-plane-search.cnn.html

Tigerandahalf · 08-03-2014 5:28pm

From what I'm reading on that flightradar site there seems to be quite a lot of difference between tracking system on different airplanes.
Is there not a single system (GPS) between plane, satellite and air traffic control?

Kavs8 · 08-03-2014 5:33pm

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

From what I'm reading on that flightradar site there seems to be quite a lot of difference between tracking system on different airplanes.
Is there not a single system (GPS) between plane, satellite and air traffic control?

All you need to know is this aircraft by law carries a transponder that transponder in turns transmits information including the aircraft's position, height, vertical speed, speed, track, the actual transponder code, the aircraft type and the routeing of the plane.

In addition to this, if the transponder malfunctions the flight can still be traced on secondary radar, albeit without lots of information - With a plane missing from radar that usually signifies the worst.

What will be of very big significant interest is what messages if any were sent via the ACARS system from the flight to Malaysia Airlines.

Popoutman · 08-03-2014 5:35pm

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

Is there not a single system (GPS) between plane, satellite and air traffic control?

GPS is not a tracking system - it's a means of obtaining a position. It's possible to use that information afterwards in a tracking system.

GPS is good, but generally not to be relied on completely as it does have its flaws. Very useful all the same!

djmcr · 08-03-2014 5:36pm

Sully wrote: »

Excuse my ignorance but if the flight went off radar within 40mins, why did ATA or whomever respond so late? Is it normal procedure to wait until the flight is expected to land before declaring an emergency?

See this re Alerting Service that ATC provides, there are a number of phases that follow in relation to uncertainty of aircraft missing depending on the phase of the flight

djmcr · 08-03-2014 5:39pm

Kavs8 wrote: »

All you need to know is this aircraft by law carries a transponder that transponder in turns transmits information including the aircraft's position, height, vertical speed, speed, track, the actual transponder code, the aircraft type and the routeing of the plane.

In addition to this, if the transponder malfunctions the flight can still be traced on secondary radar, albeit without lots of information - With a plane missing from radar that usually signifies the worst.

A/C can be tracked using primary radar which operates totally independently of the target aircraft

Kavs8 · 08-03-2014 5:40pm

djmcr wrote: »

A/C can be tracked using primary radar which operates totally independently of the target aircraft

Indeed however without transponder information it becomes significantly more difficult to track on primary then on secondary as was the case in 9/11 I believe?

djmcr · 08-03-2014 5:43pm

Kavs8 wrote: »

Indeed however without transponder information it becomes significantly more difficult to track on primary then on secondary as was the case in 9/11 I believe?

But with primary radar, aircraft, if still there it can be tracked with primary radar (within radar head limits)whilst with secondary if all systems fail onboard ATC has no information

Kavs8 · 08-03-2014 5:45pm

djmcr wrote: »

But with primary radar, aircraft, if still there it can be tracked with primary radar (within radar head limits)whilst with secondary if all systems fail onboard ATC has no information

Ah ok thanks for that, just wondering it's been reported the system in Vietnamese airspace changed from primary to secondary in order to meet regulations recently, if everything failed then they would have had nothing right?

Stinicker · 08-03-2014 5:48pm

I am very concerned about everything I have read so far and to me it is looking more and more like a terrorist attack to me right now. There is a large islamic insurgency problem in Southern Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and in Mindanao in the Philippines. Added to last weeks attacks in Kunming Train Station I am leaning towards this being an attack against China and with an added mix of enough Westerners to give these sickos the global attention which they seek.

djmcr · 08-03-2014 5:49pm

Kavs8 wrote: »

Ah ok thanks for that, just wondering it's been reported the system in Vietnamese airspace changed from primary to secondary in order to meet regulations recently, if everything failed then they would have had nothing right?

If they only had secondary and all systems onboard failed then they shouldnt have anything as secondary radar depends on a return from the aircraft.

Tigerandahalf · 08-03-2014 5:49pm

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/missing-malaysia-airlines-flight-live-3219331

Malaysia Airlines flight MH370-Updates and Discussion

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