Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

2013Lara · 21-01-2019 1:12am

First hard frost I've seen in a long time. Coastal Wicklow. Cars and grass covered.

Gaoth Laidir · 21-01-2019 1:15am

-2 °C at Athenry and Custume Barracks, Athlone, at midnight. A host of -1s too.

sdanseo · 21-01-2019 1:23am

Just in from the pub (terrible plan on a Sunday, I recommend against).

Windows freezing on cars already all the way home.

Definitely an ice scraper day tomorrow.

Donegal Storm · 21-01-2019 1:30am

What a beautiful night tonight, rare we get such a clear and calm night on a full moon

wing52 · 21-01-2019 1:50am

Donegal Storm wrote: »

What a beautiful night tonight, rare we get such a clear and calm night on a full moon

A blood moon, no less! M.t. cranium says 5.15 am for the best view.

Andrew00 · 21-01-2019 2:07am

First real proper frost here in Galway all winter. Freezing out

gozunda · 21-01-2019 2:31am

Briefly dropped to -2 c. Now - 1.5 ...

highdef · 21-01-2019 2:42am

-3c exactly in rural North Kildare

SleetAndSnow · 21-01-2019 8:12am

Cars covered in thick ice here in cork city for the first time t8£ winter.

M.T. Cranium · 21-01-2019 8:20am

My short cut to mobility on mornings like this -- take along some hot water in a container of your choice, start the vehicle, put on the full defrost at max heat, wait about half a minute, then slowly pour your hot water over the centre of the windscreen working out to the edges. Squirt the fluid on the (hopefully completely) thawed windscreen and expect about 1-2 minutes of foggy views before it clears up with the heat coming on. The alternative is to spend twice as long scraping, you probably don't want to run your vehicle all through that but if that's what you normally do, this will save a bit on the old carbon footprint and such. Don't use fluid instead of the hot water, it will run off onto your paint or the ground which is not so great. Sometimes I do cheat and mix a bit of fluid in with the hot water but that's at temperatures lower than you have now.

Lucreto · 21-01-2019 9:03am

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

My short cut to mobility on mornings like this -- take along some hot water in a container of your choice, start the vehicle, put on the full defrost at max heat, wait about half a minute, then slowly pour your hot water over the centre of the windscreen working out to the edges. Squirt the fluid on the (hopefully completely) thawed windscreen and expect about 1-2 minutes of foggy views before it clears up with the heat coming on. The alternative is to spend twice as long scraping, you probably don't want to run your vehicle all through that but if that's what you normally do, this will save a bit on the old carbon footprint and such. Don't use fluid instead of the hot water, it will run off onto your paint or the ground which is not so great. Sometimes I do cheat and mix a bit of fluid in with the hot water but that's at temperatures lower than you have now.

I never use hot water. If there is even a small crack in the glass it could shatter. Believe me it has happened. Poured hot water on the windscreen heard a massive bang and my windscreen was on the driver seat.

If it's really cold it could refreeze and be back to square one.

Fortunately I love scraping the frost off the car.

Monkeynut · 21-01-2019 9:14am

I run the car for 5 mins on full blast. Hoping the car is still there when i come back. I have been lucky so far.

KingdomRushed · 21-01-2019 9:31am

Shocking weekend for model watching. The Friday 12z were so promising until the ECM came out and pissed on the parade.

This has been a hobby of mine for some time but to be honest, this winter has been the most difficult to discern any sort of long term outlook from the model output.

For what it’s worth, it is looking like another shot at cold in 7-10 days time, but to be honest I’m too fatigued to place any faith on it.

odyboody · 21-01-2019 9:40am

Lucreto wrote: »

I never use hot water. If there is even a small crack in the glass it could shatter. Believe me it has happened. Poured hot water on the windscreen heard a massive bang and my windscreen was on the driver seat.

If it's really cold it could refreeze and be back to square one.

Fortunately I love scraping the frost off the car.

Pour hot water on roof first and let run onto windscreen, this minimizes ant thermal shock and still gets the job done

KingJeremy · 21-01-2019 9:41am

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Shocking weekend for model watching. The Friday 12z were so promising until the ECM came out and pissed on the parade.

This has been a hobby of mine for some time but to be honest, this winter has been the most difficult to discern any sort of long term outlook from the model output.

For what it’s worth, it is looking like another shot at cold in 7-10 days time, but to be honest I’m too fatigued to place any faith on it.

It always seems to be 7-10 days time

getting fatigued too at this stage. Not even a decent frost this morning in my part of the country *sigh*

Kamili · 21-01-2019 9:50am

KingJeremy wrote: »

It always seems to be 7-10 days time getting fatigued too at this stage. Not even a decent frost this morning in my part of the country *sigh*

I have to agree here - I didn't say it before on here because I think I would have been slated, but have felt it all along.. I don't think we will get much if any snow at all this winter. Everything has been 7-10 days out then never happens, rinse and repeat all winter.

Had a very hard frost overnight though. Got up at 4.50am to watch the eclipse. Even though it was clear the ice in the air at higher levels made it look a little fuzzy.

Was glad to see it and get back into my warm bed for an hour afterwards. Its the last lunar eclipse until May 2021..

KingdomRushed · 21-01-2019 10:13am

Kamili wrote: »

I have to agree here - I didn't say it before on here because I think I would have been slated, but have felt it all along.. I don't think we will get much if any snow at all this winter. Everything has been 7-10 days out then never happens, rinse and repeat all winter.

Had a very hard frost overnight though. Got up at 4.50am to watch the eclipse. Even though it was clear the ice in the air at higher levels made it look a little fuzzy.

Was glad to see it and get back into my warm bed for an hour afterwards. Its the last lunar eclipse until May 2021..

Who knows we might see another lunar eclipse before we see snow lmao

Calibos · 21-01-2019 10:22am

I stopped paying much attention when I read a few weeks ago about the snow on the beaches in Athens and the Skiing opportunities in the Golan Heights in Syria. I dont think we've ever had Snow the same Winter season as the beaches in Athens. Im sure its no coincidence as it probably implies Siberian High pressure and jetstream tracks pushing the Siberian cold further south and East than usual putting us too far west of the western edge of the extreme cold and allowing the Atlantic to dominate us.

I also have to admit that I dont want it if its like Feb/Mar 2018's snow. Incredibly selfish and quite literally 'my back yardish' but on Bray Seafront it never amounted to more than about 2 inches of slushy snow thanks to the high winds blowing in salty sea spray (natures antifreeze) along with the snow. Less than a kilometer inland and 100m up by which distance/height the Salt had precipiated out of the airflow and you then had Bray Head environs with lanes filled with 2m snowdrifts and most inland Bray back gardens with at least a foot of snow. 2010 didnt amount to much right on the Seafront either maxing out at 5 inches until it compressed/setttled down to 2 inches but it least it was dry snow and crisp beautiful weather to go along with it. Wasnt in Bray for 1982 but got buried in Firhouse so the high water/Snow mark for me in Bray is still 1987 when we had over a foot of snow on the Seafront.

Kamili · 21-01-2019 10:38am

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Who knows we might see another lunar eclipse before we see snow lmao

I actually think you might be right there :P:cool:

sryanbruen · 21-01-2019 11:13am

Up to this point, we have just been extremely unlucky (or very lucky depending on your point of view) in not receiving cold or snow. We've seen the scenes in Autumn 2018 in North America and in central Europe in January. One of the biggest culprits in my opinion is the North Atlantic SST profile.

January is looking like it will end up milder than I anticipated back at the end of November with the forecast as it has been quite cloudy. I said a close to average January if a little bit on the chilly side, might be around a degree or so above average by the end of the month.

For this Winter to end up colder than average, a severe or significantly cold February must happen which I thought was not likely, in my forecast.

sryanbruen wrote: »

Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies

The Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue to show this strange profile of cold-warm-cold-warm in the North Atlantic with the cold anomalies forming the shape of a horseshoe which has been the case since Spring generally. This is not favourable for a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) going strictly by the SSTs alone as they would have to be warmer around Greenland to do so. In case you do not know, the NAO is an index showing the difference in mean sea level pressure between the Icelandic Low and Azores High, two elements which make up the normal zonal pattern for western Europe. A positive NAO involves both of these elements being strong and normally translate to mild, wet conditions in Winter time whilst a negative NAO involves both of these elements either being weak or sometimes, non-existent as the pattern can completely reverse, which usually translate to cold conditions in Winter. This is not always the case with either side of the NAO index as there have been instances of cold conditions with positive NAO just as much as mild conditions with negative NAO. Every Winter since and including 2013-14 has had a positive NAO which has been one of the reasons why Winter hasn't been particularly cold recently and sometimes, record mild or wet as such happened in 2013-14 and 2015-16. Summer has been the opposite for most years since 2007 with every Summer since bar 2013 and now 2018 having a negative NAO. In fact, Summer 2018 was record breakingly positive. Will Winter 2018-19 see a similar flip to negative NAO? Not very likely given the Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies though not impossible. I did an analogue on Winters following very positive NAO Summers and in fact, the signal was strong for an Atlantic driven Winter. Therefore from this point of view, there is an increased chance of a mild, wet Winter.

sryanbruen · 21-01-2019 11:13am

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Who knows we might see another lunar eclipse before we see snow lmao

That made my day :pac: .

Artane2002 · 21-01-2019 11:51am

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Who knows we might see another lunar eclipse before we see snow lmao

Maybe, I've seen two lunar eclipses since July and zero snow!

Billcarson · 21-01-2019 12:27pm

Calibos is right about the likes of Greece getting snow. It just doesn't seem to bode well for us. As much as I was hoping for a cold spell due to the ssw what happened in Greece was at the back of my mind as I saw it as a poor sign for us.

The Greeks ended up stealing our winter yet again.

squarecircles · 21-01-2019 12:52pm

depressing outlook

OUTLOOK ... This pattern of largely cold (modified rather than severe cold) and briefly milder interludes will continue the following week, according to most guidance. Timing is not that reliable so far in advance but the next cycle of brief milder weather should occur around mid-week with the following colder spell later in the week near the end of January. There is always going to be some risk of severe cold developing as the guidance is only approximately reliable in this situation. If that does happen, then some risks of heavier snow would arise, but in this modified cold pattern, the snow is likely to be fleeting and mostly (although not always) confined to hilly areas.

irishrover99 · 21-01-2019 12:54pm

Lovely calm day out again.
Bit colder than i'd like but no rain or wind so can't really complain.
Perfect conditions for been on the bike.
Only 10 days left of January:)

Loughc · 21-01-2019 12:56pm

Looks like the dream is over!

YanSno · 21-01-2019 12:59pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

A few stations (especially in the UK) send up 18Z balloons (see "Sondages obs altitude" in meteociel) but even 12Z data will be fed into the 18Z analysis as there is a 9-hour data acquisition window in 4DVAR. At least it's 9 hours for the ECM, not sure how long for the GFS.

I was referring to Gfs, balloons are sent up for 0z & 12z forecast. As you said they feed off data from previous.

JCX BXC · 21-01-2019 12:59pm

This thread is like a roundabout. It really is.

To be honest it seems more like a bar conversation where nobody really listens to eachother but talks anyway.

pistolpetes11 · 21-01-2019 1:00pm

All the EC monthly forecasts and everything else that was showing blocking this winter would make it very disappointing for us not to get a real blast of wintry weather .

All them charts in future should probably be in the FI thread as they would appear to be complete fantasy at this stage .

Billcarson · 21-01-2019 1:00pm

The snow starved Irish of winter 2018/19 left to feed on scraps .

Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

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