Thursday/Friday: Lightning Storms, Flash Flooding Event Thread

Davaeo09 · 25-06-2020 9:20am

lovely morning here in kilkenny

very warm already

Gaoth Laidir · 25-06-2020 9:23am

Don't be focusing too much on precipitation forecasts as rainfall can sometimes evaporate before reaching the ground with elevated storms.

Met Éireann's aviation chart for 12Z shows an area C covering all of Ireland and extending southeastwards down over Land's End and NW France. A trough is shown over Brest, moving northwestwards at 30 knots.

Weather description for this area is as follows:

Generally fine, but isolated (occasional near troughs) heavy showers/thunderstorms with hail, Cb bases 3000-6000 ft, and isolated coastal fog.

bazlers · 25-06-2020 9:25am

Meteorite58 will come in with a haymaker of a prediction soon and the rollercoaster goes up again

John.Icy · 25-06-2020 9:27am

squarecircles wrote: »

the damp squids

cant wait to piss all of this thread later,regardless of what materialises,like people did with the storms in the west last week.

Are you well?

Pretty much everyone looked on in envy of the storms last week out West. There was no pissing all over the thread, widespread acknowledgement of how incredible some of those storms seemed.

Your continued anger on this forum towards people in the East is frankly weird. It's just weather. Lighten up.

Comhrá · 25-06-2020 9:28am

SouthWesterly wrote: »

Am I right in saying this is a non event for the SW.

Sadly I'd say you're right. In years of watching this sort of set-up with a humid southeasterly flow and our proximity to the Atlantic, I can't really ever recall significant thunderstorms developing in the Southwest of the country. At best, storms usually develop no further west than the Limk/ Tipp border. Maybe an isolated cell may pop up somewhere west of that line, but that's the most I'd expect.

These storms from Spanish plumes usually run east of a line from say, Waterford to east Mayo so west Munster will miss out as usual. Hope I'm wrong though!

lawred2 · 25-06-2020 9:30am

gorgeous morning here in North County Dublin

What time is this weather change?

The One Doctor · 25-06-2020 9:31am

lawred2 wrote: »

gorgeous morning here in North County Dublin

What time is this weather change?

8-10pm and on.

lawred2 · 25-06-2020 9:32am

The One Doctor wrote: »

8-10pm and on.

grand - should get a full day out of this sun then

SouthWesterly · 25-06-2020 9:41am

Davaeo09 wrote: »

lovely morning here in kilkenny

very warm already

Where else would people moan about something they can't control.

Overcast day in North Kerry. 19.2C
998 hpa. NNE wind 1.7 m/s

Muscles Schultz · 25-06-2020 9:47am

The question needed to be asked - I’m driving from Dunmore East at 8pm to Dublin Airport to take a flight to Kerry to collect a dog for my one legged mother.....will it be safe to do so?

Storm 10 · 25-06-2020 9:51am

Hate to throw a spanner in the works

From Met Eireann

Tonight will be very mild and humid, with further scattered heavy and
thundery downpours and with a risk of hail and spot flooding. The risk of
thunderstorms is greatest in Ulster and Connacht

Davaeo09 · 25-06-2020 9:57am

Storm 10 wrote: »

Hate to throw a spanner in the works

how has it moved so far north?

lawred2 · 25-06-2020 10:03am

Storm 10 wrote: »

Hate to throw a spanner in the works

Saw BBC weather earlier that had some sort of concentrated cell hitting east coast directly... Dublin was bang in the middle.

Didn't seem to go near Connacht

Storm 10 · 25-06-2020 10:07am

Seems to be showers developing to the South West

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

Gaoth Laidir · 25-06-2020 10:14am

Midnight radiosonde from Brest, NW France, shows a very strong cap above an elevated mixed layer. Plenty of CAPE there if it can be overcome, but a surface temperature of around 28 degrees would be needed to have a go at it. Most unstable layers are around 950 and 825 hPa.

Kermit.de.frog · 25-06-2020 10:16am

Storm 10 wrote: »

Hate to throw a spanner in the works

Met Eireann:

The risk of
thunderstorms is greatest in Ulster and Connacht

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GM-e46xdcUo

Wine Goddess · 25-06-2020 10:21am

Midnight radiosonde from Brest, NW France, shows a very strong cap above an elevated mixed layer. Plenty of CAPE there if it can be overcome, but a surface temperature of around 28 degrees would be needed to have a go at it. Most unstable layers are around 950 and 825 hPa.

Met Eireann forecasting 29c in Firhouse by 5pm. We could definitely make it!

JCX BXC · 25-06-2020 10:27am

Wine Goddess wrote: »

Met Eireann forecasting 29c in Firhouse by 5pm. We could definitely make it!

Is that their hourly forecast for your location.

Always overestimates high temperatures, knock 2-3°c minimum off every time it forecasts temperatures like that.

Slashermcguirk · 25-06-2020 10:30am

Why would met eireann get it so wrong when Ireland weather is their only focus

JCX BXC wrote: »

Is that their hourly forecast for your location.

Always overestimates high temperatures, knock 2-3°c minimum off every time it forecasts temperatures like that.

Paso Fino · 25-06-2020 10:32am

Very hot and muggy when I was out at 8am - house is roasting, even with every window open - I need a fan!!

Danno · 25-06-2020 10:38am

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Midnight radiosonde from Brest, NW France, shows a very strong cap above an elevated mixed layer. Plenty of CAPE there if it can be overcome, but a surface temperature of around 28 degrees would be needed to have a go at it. Most unstable layers are around 950 and 825 hPa.

Forecasts are for 28c in places today.

At 10am (9UTC) it was at 20.2c in Durrow with a wet bulb of 17.4c.

Some "popcorn" cloud about - similar to what was over Dublin last evening.

Also GL - you'll be glad to know I put out a spare MAX thermometer into direct sunlight this morning - just to see!

Little snowy old me · 25-06-2020 10:43am

Met Eireann now calling it for Ulster and Connaught. I'm going to get on with my day. It's a non event for Dublin and the east coast. This is not doom and gloom, this is based on their forecast.

lolie · 25-06-2020 10:43am

DOCARCH wrote: »

Expect nothing and then you will not be disappointed.

Exacly, thats my thinking on thunderstorms.
Expect nothing and anything is a bonus, he/she has started that crap in this thread already.

Gaoth Laidir · 25-06-2020 10:44am

Here is the upper forcing (divergence, shown by the +) that will hopefully help cool upper levels and increase CAPE values later this afternoon and evening. There is a corresponding boost in vertical motion at 500 hPa (pink area in the Irish Sea), probably also aided by the Welsh terrain, but not so much over Ireland. Hopefully we'll see some action but I'd prefer to be seeing a lot more activity happening over Biscay now. The next few hours are key.

Kermit.de.frog · 25-06-2020 10:47am

Some models, in fact most now delay storms with heavy rainfall to the early hours of the morning in the east but storms with little or no rainfall prior. This is not actually that unusual with a plume like this - you can have lightning flashing all round and literally no rain reaching the surface. The lightning would be particularly high in elevation but still packs a visual punch.

It's disconcerting at first but it's quite a show all the same.

The last example I can think of was some time in the late 90's but I can't remember the year because I was too young - maybe 97 something like this occurred in Dublin.

If anyone remembers let us know. It was spectacular and very memorable.

The One Doctor · 25-06-2020 10:56am

I remember it happening in 2000.

Kermit.de.frog · 25-06-2020 11:00am

The One Doctor wrote: »

I remember it happening in 2000.

Maybe i'm way out on the year. The lightning was relentless - never seen anything like it before prior but very little rainfall.

Definitely something you'd remember.

Strangegravy · 25-06-2020 11:01am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Some models, in fact most now delay storms with heavy rainfall to the early hours of the morning in the east but storms with little or no rainfall prior. This is not actually that unusual with a plume like this - you can have lightning flashing all round and literally no rain reaching the surface. The lightning would be particularly high in elevation but still packs a visual punch.

It's disconcerting at first but it's quite a show all the same.

The last example I can think of was some time in the late 90's but I can't remember the year because I was too young - maybe 97 something like this occurred in Dublin.

If anyone remembers let us know. It was spectacular and very memorable.

I remember something like this in Shannon when I was younger, my Dad brought me up along the river, loads of lightening flashing above us in the clouds, but no rain or thunder. Would have been maybe late 80's or early 90's.

Was surreal at the time.

Kermit.de.frog · 25-06-2020 11:05am

That's another thing I forgot to mention - no audible thunder - despite lightning every few seconds.

Captain_Crash · 25-06-2020 11:12am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

That's another thing I forgot to mention - no audible thunder - despite lightning every few seconds.

I’ve seen that in Florida countless times, but never here! Might it have something to do with strong winds aloft and being upwind from the cell??

stevek93 · 25-06-2020 11:12am

I am getting a sicking headache with this mugginess

I am working at home in the southern part of the house.

esposito · 25-06-2020 11:14am

Captain_Crash wrote: »

I’ve seen that in Florida countless times, but never here! Might it have something to do with strong winds aloft and being upwind from the cell??

Yep seen it in Florida - known as an electrical storm if I’m not mistaken

Kermit.de.frog · 25-06-2020 11:16am

I think the models at this stage are better dumped in favor of now casting on observations but Hirlam has most storms hugging the east coast and effecting Wicklow, Dublin, Meath, Louth, Wexford...as well as storms through the north midlands to the northwest.

The reality is this could develop a multitude of ways.

Banana Republic. · 25-06-2020 11:17am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

That's another thing I forgot to mention - no audible thunder - despite lightning every few seconds.

The storm recently in Waterford was something I never experienced before with hardly any thunder and the heft of the rain when it came was crazy plus added the Gardaí were running around our street in the heavier weather looking for someone following as n attempted break in, flashing lights and flashing skies Some kinda awesome

Comhrá · 25-06-2020 11:25am

stevek93 wrote: »

I am getting a sicking headache with this mugginess I am working at home in the southern part of the house.

Well, just go and lie down for a while over in the west wing then.

pad199207 · 25-06-2020 11:25am

Just tipping 22°c in Kildare now with 80% humidity

pad199207 · 25-06-2020 11:25am

Just tipping 22°c in Kildare now with 80% humidity

PukkaStukka · 25-06-2020 11:26am

The One Doctor wrote: »

I remember it happening in 2000.

And 1986

harr · 25-06-2020 11:34am

Lovely morning here on the Laois / kildare border just hitting 23° and a very light breeze..
I see a certain Facebook weather page issued a purple weather warning yesterday not content with his usual red ..

nacho libre · 25-06-2020 11:37am

Little snowy old me wrote: »

Met Eireann now calling it for Ulster and Connaught. I'm going to get on with my day. It's a non event for Dublin and the east coast. This is not doom and gloom, this is based on their forecast.

This is unusual, you usually are very optimistic. In these situations thunderstorms can occur in places that they aren't necessarily forecasted to. Also with the east forecast to be sunny, with quite warm and humid conditions into this evening, this heating may well storm development later on. It maybe the case that you miss out on seeing lightning in your area, but i'd be confident you'll at least see some in the distance night sky.

Storm 10 · 25-06-2020 11:40am

Very warm and sticky in Galway with no wind, real headache weather

The One Doctor · 25-06-2020 11:49am

Warm and windy in North Co Dublin.

Say my name · 25-06-2020 11:55am

Wexford - home to thunderstorms and tornadoes.

And strawberries.

Paso Fino · 25-06-2020 11:56am

Dublin airport METAR reporting 20 degrees with a DP of 15 and 73% humidity - how people manage to live in warm/hot countries I don't know!

:pac:

Danno · 25-06-2020 11:56am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Some models, in fact most now delay storms with heavy rainfall to the early hours of the morning in the east but storms with little or no rainfall prior. This is not actually that unusual with a plume like this - you can have lightning flashing all round and literally no rain reaching the surface. The lightning would be particularly high in elevation but still packs a visual punch.

It's disconcerting at first but it's quite a show all the same.

The last example I can think of was some time in the late 90's but I can't remember the year because I was too young - maybe 97 something like this occurred in Dublin.

If anyone remembers let us know. It was spectacular and very memorable.

I remember one lin the mid-late 90s, no thunder just crazy high up lightning.

squarecircles · 25-06-2020 11:57am

Irelands tornado alley as it were.:pac:

squarecircles · 25-06-2020 11:58am

Say my name wrote: »

Wexford - home to thunderstorms and tornadoes.

And strawberries.

irelands tornado alley as it were :pac:

geminiman63 · 25-06-2020 11:59am

Don't forget the new potatoes here, famous country wide :pac:

IvySlayer · 25-06-2020 11:59am

Anyone remember 2003 I think in October? Lightning/thunder started from morning and lasted well into the night.

pad199207 · 25-06-2020 12:00pm

Say my name wrote: »

Wexford - home to thunderstorms and tornadoes.

And strawberries.

Thunderstorms, Tornadoes, Sunshine, Strawberries, Beaches.... I could go on but I won’t derail the thread

Thursday/Friday: Lightning Storms, Flash Flooding Event Thread

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