Epsom Derby 2019

Andrew00 · 16-05-2019 12:55pm

How could you a back Japan with this drift on him? Don't think it'll be winning today anyway and I'd say the lads at Ballydoyle know that

PhuckHugh22 · 16-05-2019 1:22pm

PP have a market on who Ryan Moore will ride. I think they were giving 15/8 about AVD. Would have made him more of an even money shot tbh.

Mostly Harmless · 16-05-2019 1:37pm

Think 9/1 Japan looks massive myself, likely more caused by strength behind a few others and doubt most at Ballydoyle are particularly interested in the betting value of a horse in a race such as this.

Francie Barrett · 16-05-2019 2:08pm

Andrew00 wrote: »

How could you a back Japan with this drift on him? Don't think it'll be winning today anyway and I'd say the lads at Ballydoyle know that

I wouldn't be afraid of a Ballydoyle horse drifting from 4's to 8's. The short priced ones just before the off on the other hand, I wouldn't touch....

The Tetrarch · 16-05-2019 3:13pm

John Gosden has mentioned other races for Too Darn Hot, and it looks like he is out of the English Derby.
I got very lucky, was watching the wrong TV channel, then I switched to ITV4, the horses were in the stall for the Dante, and seconds later they were running.

The auld Derby market is in turmoil.

tryfix · 16-05-2019 3:24pm

The Tetrarch wrote: »

John Gosden has mentioned other races for Too Darn Hot, and it looks like he is out of the English Derby.
I got very lucky, was watching the wrong TV channel, then I switched to ITV4, the horses were in the stall for the Dante, and seconds later they were running.

The auld Derby market is in turmoil.

The 2 market leaders aren't even entered in the Derby and there's no knowing what ones of O'Brien's will have improved by Derby week.

Slattsy · 16-05-2019 5:55pm

Happy enough with that run from Japan. Going by the drift you'd have to think he was only 50% ready. Another few furlongs and a drop of rain and he'll be there or thereabouts.

The Tetrarch · 19-05-2019 5:14pm

I've had a small bet on Circus Maximus, the Dee Stakes winner, at 36+.
He is by Galileo out of a 115 rated mare who won at 8f four times in Group/Listed.
He has 2 wins from 5 starts, and is entered in the English Derby.

1st race: hampered and finished 5th of 23
2nd race:won a maiden 8f heavy
3rd race: 3rd in the Autumn Stakes 8f good/firm behind Persian King (French 2000 Guineas winner 2019) and Magna Grecia (English 2000 Guineas winner 2019)
4th race: 4th beaten 1 length behind Magna Grecia 8f Group 1 good/soft
5th race (2019): won the Dee Stakes (Listed) at Chester by 1 1/4 lengths

Of course he is not a certain runner.

Mostly Harmless · 19-05-2019 5:20pm

AOB suggesting Sir Dragonet may go to Chantilly instead of Epsom in interview at Naas there. Nothing decided yet though.

IAMAMORON · 19-05-2019 5:50pm

It sounds like the pre Derby waffle season has begun in earnest...

I can't see Mr. Magnier not sending his best chance to Epsom. The French Derby is only over 10 1/2 f, it doesn't make any sense.

Andrew00 · 19-05-2019 5:52pm

They're trying to get a better price on Sir Dragonet so the stable lads and lasses can get on

akelly02 · 19-05-2019 6:03pm

Andrew00 wrote: »

They're trying to get a better price on Sir Dragonet so the stable lads and lasses can get on

Scutter

IAMAMORON · 19-05-2019 6:13pm

The only scenario I see Sir Dragonet not running at Epsom would be if the ground was too firm. Telecaster looks like he is a top of the ground horse, they could be worried about him outstaying Sir Dragonet on firm ground.

I don't think Aidan O'Brien is too concerned about the stable staff getting on either. They will have plenty of opportunities this summer to get a nice price horse over the line without having to worry about winning the Epsom Derby.

WicklowBrave · 19-05-2019 6:15pm

Makes sense tbh. Having to shell out 20k or whatever it is when they already have Broome, AvD and others. I know 20k is pocket change to the lads but it’s ridiculous they have to pay it nonetheless. Those trials should be win and you’re in. Likely to get soft ground at Chantilly aswell whereas probably come up like a road at Epsom. Having a Prix Du Jockey Club on his CV instead of ‘the’ Derby won’t do his prospective stallion career any harm either the way the Derby is going. A G1 over 10f be a bonus if anything as long as he can back it up for the rest of the season in the Irish Derby, ICS, Arc etc.

WicklowBrave · 19-05-2019 6:19pm

Actually only clocked he probably has to be supplemented for the French Derby aswell although I don’t know what the cost is? So yeah who knows lmao.

Andrew00 · 19-05-2019 6:22pm

I think the supplementary fee is 85k not 20k which doesn't make sense as u say when they have enough firepower anyway to win it

WicklowBrave · 19-05-2019 6:23pm

Andrew00 wrote: »

I think the supplementary fee is 85k not 20k which doesn't make sense as u say when they have eniugh firepower anyway to win it

Is it 85k?? Jesus. Dunno where I got the 20k from, think that’s for the Champion Hurdle haha.

IAMAMORON · 19-05-2019 6:26pm

The other really telling item re Sir Dragonet is that neither Paddy Power or Boyles will price him up for the Arc.

https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/international/prix-de-larc-de-triomphe-2019/winner

I usually don't get too involved with Antepost betting, but he won't be 20/1 with Ladbrokes for the Arc after either Derby. No way.

supremenovice · 19-05-2019 6:52pm

It will be interesting to see if Madhmoon and Line of Duty will be declared for the Irish Guineas tomorrow or held back for Epsom

Andrew00 · 19-05-2019 7:15pm

I think the French Derby would be a good race for Madhmoon to go for. 10f right up his street but looks like they'll go to Epsom.

He's a proper good horse and I think he'll win a group race of some sort this year

The Tetrarch · 19-05-2019 7:36pm

The Tetrarch wrote: »

I've laid Sir Dragonet (3.6/1) and Too Darn Hot (4.63/1) for the English Derby, and anything else that comes into a ridiculously short price will get the same treatment.

:cool:

The Tetrarch · 19-05-2019 7:48pm

Aidan O'Brien has 25 horses in the English Derby of the 97 entries.
John Gosden has 14 horses in the English Derby.

The chances of them supplementing horses must be slim.
My guess is Tadcaster will not be supplemented.

WicklowBrave · 19-05-2019 8:02pm

Madhmoon goes to Epsom according to KP and he has a huge chance. He will stay the trip on his head I’m convinced of that. He will prob find one the Ballydoyle nags too good on the day though.

Anthony van Dyck only turned 3 today I noticed. He is still very much the one for me. His performances in those 2yo 7f races were outstanding when you consider he was only in those races because Ballydoyle had nothing else. 1.25l defeat to Quorto is outstanding form when he really needed a mile as a 2yo. Will improve a stone from his Lingfield run. He’s a superior horse to Broome as is Madhmoon.

UrbanFret · 19-05-2019 8:06pm

WicklowBrave wrote: »

Is it 85k?? Jesus. Dunno where I got the 20k from, think that’s for the Champion Hurdle haha.

I believe it is and always has been 10% of the winners purse.

tryfix · 19-05-2019 8:52pm

Of course the Derby picture is still as clear as mud with the big trials out of the way.

I'd prefer Sir Dragonet's chances around the bends of 12f at Epsom to his chances against Persian King in the 10 1/2f Jockey Club.

Maybe Coolmore have another Epsom winner ready as far as they are concerned, maybe it'll rain and Sir Dragonet will head to Epsom. Maybe Telecaster will run or he won't run, Gosden could even change his mind about running Too Darn Hot like he did last year with Roaring Lion in last year's 2,000 Guineas.

It's a game of darts this year... and the Oaks picture isn't any clearer.

supremenovice · 19-05-2019 9:49pm

Bangkok could be a great feel good story considering the connections to the Leicester City tragedy last year. De Sousa on board too, he is due a Classic win.
The horse himself has beaten Telecaster too, so the form is there.

The Tetrarch · 20-05-2019 10:26am

Days between previous race and English Derby win
Year Winner Days
1988 Kahyasi 25
1989 Nashwan 32
1990 Quest for Fame 29
1991 Generous 32
1992 Dr Devious 32
1993 Commander in Chief 20
1994 Erhaab 20
1995 Lammtarra 302
1996 Shaamit 217
1997 Benny the Dip 24
1998 High-Rise 28
1999 Oath 30
2000 Sinndar 27
2001 Galileo 27
2002 High Chaparral 27
2003 Kris Kin 30
2004 North Light 24
2005 Motivator 23
2006 Sir Percy 28
2007 Authorized 16
2008 New Approach 14
2009 Sea the Stars 35
2010 Workforce 23
2011 Pour Moi 28
2012 Camelot 28
2013 Ruler of the World 23
2014 Australia 35
2015 Golden Horn 23
2016 Harzand 55
2017 Wings of Eagles 23
2018 Masar 28

Average 42 (27)
Median 28 (27)
(if you remove the two at 217 and 302 days)

How do the 2019 entries stack up?
Win Days Derby 2019
1 14 Western Australia
1 16 Japan; Humanitarian; Line Of Duty; Logician
2 20 Anthony Van Dyck (21); Broome; Pablo Escobar; South Pacific (21); Sovereign
5 23 Circus Maximus; Mohawk
2 24 Norway
1 25
3 27
5 28 King Of Change; Madhmoon
1 29
2 30
3 32
2 35 Bangkok (36)
1 55 Kasaman (44); Sydney Opera House
1 217 Mount Everest (244)
1 302

Just in case he runs I put €14.87 at odds of 401.06 on King Of Change.
He stayed on well for second at 66/1 in the English 2000 Guineas.
He is by Farhh who had Dee Ex Bee 2nd in the 2018 Derby.
The dam of King Of Change was a 6f horse.

The Tetrarch · 21-05-2019 12:11pm

It looks like Sir Dragonet will be supplemented for the English derby.

longshotvalue · 21-05-2019 2:48pm

Norway = Wings of Eagles Part 2.

Not as obvious as Wings, but not out of the question.

PhuckHugh22 · 21-05-2019 2:57pm

Lads stop worrying yer minds. AVD wins this. He was all the rage in the antepost last year and has only enhanced his claims since then. Throw out the Breeders cup run.
He should be favourite and id nearly say he will go off favourite.

tryfix · 21-05-2019 5:41pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Norway = Wings of Eagles Part 2.

Not as obvious as Wings, but not out of the question.

He's a place prospect for sure, there was a lot to like about how he ran on in the Vase and O'Brien has been careful to point out that his horses have deliberately not been trained hard for their trials this year, so most of them could come on in leaps and bounds.

I don't think Norway has the physique at this stage of his career to win a big race like the Derby, his brother Ruler Of The World was physically impressive looking at this stage of his career and Wings Of Eagles always had a quality physique. Norway already looked lean in the Vase, if he's going to blossom into a world beater it should take more than a few weeks for the transformation.

In the Vase Sir Dragonet was bigger, stronger, faster and showed that he had the kind of X-factor that wins Derbies. I'd like to think there was a non O'Brien trained horse with that kind of potential as a value alternative to the O'Brien dart-fest. When O'Brien goes mob handed it's usually not a great sign of confidence from Coolmore. If there is going to be a Derby winner outside of the O'Brien stable it ain't jumping out of the field, yet.

akelly02 · 21-05-2019 10:28pm

Lads this sir dragonet is the biggest talking horse in ages.

For my money van dycke is Moore’s mount and no 1 hope

WicklowBrave · 22-05-2019 12:25am

Hon the Dycke.

APOB said today he has 8 for the race but I fear Anthony might be the one they bring to Chantilly. They might be happy to leave Sir Dragonet at Epsom to beat his stablemates. They were running AvD over 7 as a 2yo and they might fancy going to France where he would get a lot of kudos if he went over and beat Persian King. Also, APOB has never won the PdJC so it would make sense for them tbh. We’ll see.

Slattsy · 22-05-2019 11:28am

Bit crazy to think they could run all 8.

How many are currently in the race, 20+ I assume? Could be messy coming round tattenham corner, I'd be avoiding whatever Moore is on

Slattsy · 22-05-2019 12:02pm

I'll be sticking with Japan, even though he's now same price as I took ap. Still think he has a massive chance, though would not like very fast ground for him.

The Tetrarch · 22-05-2019 12:39pm

It looks like there are 19 still in the race, or expected to be.
Alfaatik; Anthony Van Dyck; Bangkok; Broome; Cape Of Good Hope; Circus Maximus; Hiroshima; Humanitarian; Japan;
Line Of Duty; Madhmoon; Mohawk; Norway; Pablo Escobarr; Private Secretary; Sir Dragonet; Sovereign; Surfman; Telecaster

I got out an old Nick Mordin book in which he lists characteristics of previous English Derby winners.

Rule 1: All but one of the last 24 Derby winners who made their debuts before the last week of July of their two-year-old season went on to reach the first four in a Group race at two.
Pass: Alfaatik; Anthony Van Dyck; Bangkok; Broome; Cape Of Good Hope; Circus Maximus; Hiroshima; Humanitarian; Japan;
Line Of Duty; Madhmoon; Mohawk; Norway; Pablo Escobarr; Private Secretary; Sir Dragonet; Sovereign; Surfman; Telecaster
Fail: Pablo Escobarr
(I gave a pass to horses where this did not apply i.e. they did not race before the end of July as a 2yo)

Rule 2: If raced at two won over 7f+
Pass: Alfaatik; Anthony Van Dyck; Broome; Cape Of Good Hope; Circus Maximus; Humanitarian; Japan; Line Of Duty; Madhmoon; Mohawk; Norway; Pablo Escobarr; Sir Dragonet; Sovereign; Surfman; Telecaster
Fail: Bangkok; Hiroshima; Private Secretary

Rule 3 After winning a maiden never lost outside Group level
Pass: Alfaatik; Anthony Van Dyck; Bangkok; Broome; Cape Of Good Hope; Circus Maximus; Hiroshima; Humanitarian; Japan; Line Of Duty; Madhmoon; Mohawk; Norway; Private Secretary; Sir Dragonet; Sovereign; Surfman; Telecaster
Fail: Pablo Escobarr;

Rule 4 UK Debut after June at Newbury or Newmarket (obviously this does not apply to Irish horses (n/a)
Pass: Anthony Van Dyck; Bangkok; Broome; Cape Of Good Hope; Circus Maximus; Hiroshima; Humanitarian; Japan; Madhmoon; Mohawk; Norway; Sir Dragonet; Sovereign; Telecaster
Fail: Alfaatik; Line Of Duty; Pablo Escobarr; Private Secretary; Surfman;

That leaves a lot of horses who passed the four tests.
I decided to introduce two extra rules of my own
Rule 5: won at 10f+ as a 3yo
Rule 6: won a Group race

Rule 5: won at 10f+ as a 2yo
Pass: Anthony Van Dyck; Bangkok; Broome; Cape Of Good Hope; Circus Maximus; Hiroshima; Humanitarian; Private Secretary; Sir Dragonet; Surfman; Telecaster
Fail: Alfaatik; Japan; Line Of Duty; Madhmoon; Mohawk; Norway; Pablo Escobarr; Sovereign

Rule 6: won a Group race
Pass: Anthony Van Dyck; Bangkok; Broome; Japan; Line Of Duty; Madhmoon; Mohawk; Sir Dragonet; Telecaster
Fail: Alfaatik; Cape Of Good Hope; Circus Maximus; Hiroshima; Humanitarian; Norway; Pablo Escobarr; Private Secretary; Sovereign; Surfman

That leaves four horses who pass all six tests (or the tests did not apply e.g. they did not run as 2yos)
Anthony Van Dyck; Broome; Sir Dragonet; Telecaster

Another test is did they win 50+% of their races
Anthony Van Dyck 4/8
Broome 3/7
Sir Dragonet 2/2
Telecaster 2/3

Doubts about the four
Anthony van Dyck:
He beat Pablo Escobar in the Lingfield Derby Trial.
Pablo Escobar failed 5 of the 6 tests for a Derby winner above.
Before that Anthony van Dyck was beaten in his three previous races.
Broome:
He won his two races in 2019 well.
A little concern is he beat the same horses twice (Sovereign; Pythion; Guaranteed) and he appears better with give in the ground.
Sir Dragonet:
He is very hard to assess.
He has won his two races easily, but both were on soft.
His pedigree says the Derby should suit.
Bangkok beat Telecaster 1 1/4 l in March 2019 and beat Technician 1 1/4 l in April.
Sir Dragonet beat Technician 14 1/2 l in May.
Technician had won over 12f in April.
Telecaster:
He had a hard race in the Dante Stakes which is only 16 days before the Derby. He was beaten by Bangkok in a 10f maiden in 2019.
Bangkok had failed to win in three races as a 2yo, 7f, 7f, 8f.
Telecaster is not entered in the Derby.

My guess is
1. Sir Dragonet
2. Broome

famagusta · 22-05-2019 12:47pm

What odds Aidan to train the first five home?

akelly02 · 22-05-2019 1:45pm

The Tetrarch wrote: »

It looks like there are 19 still in the race, or expected to be.
Alfaatik; Anthony Van Dyck; Bangkok; Broome; Cape Of Good Hope; Circus Maximus; Hiroshima; Humanitarian; Japan;
Line Of Duty; Madhmoon; Mohawk; Norway; Pablo Escobarr; Private Secretary; Sir Dragonet; Sovereign; Surfman; Telecaster

I got out an old Nick Mordin book in which he lists characteristics of previous English Derby winners.

Rule 1: All but one of the last 24 Derby winners who made their debuts before the last week of July of their two-year-old season went on to reach the first four in a Group race at two.
Pass: Alfaatik; Anthony Van Dyck; Bangkok; Broome; Cape Of Good Hope; Circus Maximus; Hiroshima; Humanitarian; Japan;
Line Of Duty; Madhmoon; Mohawk; Norway; Pablo Escobarr; Private Secretary; Sir Dragonet; Sovereign; Surfman; Telecaster
Fail: Pablo Escobarr
(I gave a pass to horses where this did not apply i.e. they did not race before the end of July as a 2yo)

Rule 2: If raced at two won over 7f+
Pass: Alfaatik; Anthony Van Dyck; Broome; Cape Of Good Hope; Circus Maximus; Humanitarian; Japan; Line Of Duty; Madhmoon; Mohawk; Norway; Pablo Escobarr; Sir Dragonet; Sovereign; Surfman; Telecaster
Fail: Bangkok; Hiroshima; Private Secretary

Rule 3 After winning a maiden never lost outside Group level
Pass: Alfaatik; Anthony Van Dyck; Bangkok; Broome; Cape Of Good Hope; Circus Maximus; Hiroshima; Humanitarian; Japan; Line Of Duty; Madhmoon; Mohawk; Norway; Private Secretary; Sir Dragonet; Sovereign; Surfman; Telecaster
Fail: Pablo Escobarr;

Rule 4 UK Debut after June at Newbury or Newmarket (obviously this does not apply to Irish horses (n/a)
Pass: Anthony Van Dyck; Bangkok; Broome; Cape Of Good Hope; Circus Maximus; Hiroshima; Humanitarian; Japan; Madhmoon; Mohawk; Norway; Sir Dragonet; Sovereign; Telecaster
Fail: Alfaatik; Line Of Duty; Pablo Escobarr; Private Secretary; Surfman;

That leaves a lot of horses who passed the four tests.
I decided to introduce two extra rules of my own
Rule 5: won at 10f+ as a 3yo
Rule 6: won a Group race

Rule 5: won at 10f+ as a 2yo
Pass: Anthony Van Dyck; Bangkok; Broome; Cape Of Good Hope; Circus Maximus; Hiroshima; Humanitarian; Private Secretary; Sir Dragonet; Surfman; Telecaster
Fail: Alfaatik; Japan; Line Of Duty; Madhmoon; Mohawk; Norway; Pablo Escobarr; Sovereign

Rule 6: won a Group race
Pass: Anthony Van Dyck; Bangkok; Broome; Japan; Line Of Duty; Madhmoon; Mohawk; Sir Dragonet; Telecaster
Fail: Alfaatik; Cape Of Good Hope; Circus Maximus; Hiroshima; Humanitarian; Norway; Pablo Escobarr; Private Secretary; Sovereign; Surfman

That leaves four horses who pass all six tests (or the tests did not apply e.g. they did not run as 2yos)
Anthony Van Dyck; Broome; Sir Dragonet; Telecaster

Another test is did they win 50+% of their races
Anthony Van Dyck 4/8
Broome 3/7
Sir Dragonet 2/2
Telecaster 2/3

Doubts about the four
Anthony van Dyck:
He beat Pablo Escobar in the Lingfield Derby Trial.
Pablo Escobar failed 5 of the 6 tests for a Derby winner above.
Before that Anthony van Dyck was beaten in his three previous races.
Broome:
He won his two races in 2019 well.
A little concern is he beat the same horses twice (Sovereign; Pythion; Guaranteed) and he appears better with give in the ground.
Sir Dragonet:
He is very hard to assess.
He has won his two races easily, but both were on soft.
His pedigree says the Derby should suit.
Bangkok beat Telecaster 1 1/4 l in March 2019 and beat Technician 1 1/4 l in April.
Sir Dragonet beat Technician 14 1/2 l in May.
Technician had won over 12f in April.
Telecaster:
He had a hard race in the Dante Stakes which is only 16 days before the Derby. He was beaten by Bangkok in a 10f maiden in 2019.
Bangkok had failed to win in three races as a 2yo, 7f, 7f, 8f.
Telecaster is not entered in the Derby.

My guess is
1. Sir Dragonet
2. Broome

Van dycke didn’t win at 10f + as a 2 yr old ?

IAMAMORON · 22-05-2019 1:51pm

famagusta wrote: »

What odds Aidan to train the first five home?

I would wait until the final decs and then do a trifecta or quad pick etc. This will give a better return than any bookie will. I doubt they will run five anyway.

PhuckHugh22 · 22-05-2019 1:56pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I would wait until the final decs and then do a trifecta or quad pick etc. This will give a better return than any bookie will. I doubt they will run five anyway.

I seen somewhere it may have been PP but it was 10/1 for AOB 1-2-3 or 11/4 for 1-2.

Thought it was plenty short enough on the 1-2-3 anyway.

IAMAMORON · 22-05-2019 2:03pm

PhuckHugh22 wrote: »

I seen somewhere it may have been PP but it was 10/1 for AOB 1-2-3 or 11/4 for 1-2.

Thought it was plenty short enough on the 1-2-3 anyway.

I would prefer to do a trifecta with the tote tbh. In saying that i would be worried about the competition as well.

It is hard enough backing the winner, never mind the first 3 home !!

The Tetrarch · 22-05-2019 2:14pm

akelly02 wrote: »

Van dycke didn’t win at 10f + as a 2 yr old ?

Oops, that should read as a 3yo

That leaves a lot of horses who passed the four tests.
I decided to introduce two extra rules of my own
Rule 5: won at 10f+ as a 3yo
Rule 6: won a Group race

Rule 5: won at 10f+ as a 2yo
Pass: Anthony Van Dyck; Bangkok; Broome; Cape Of Good Hope; Circus Maximus; Hiroshima; Humanitarian; Private Secretary; Sir Dragonet; Surfman; Telecaster
Fail: Alfaatik; Japan; Line Of Duty; Madhmoon; Mohawk; Norway; Pablo Escobarr; Sovereign

The Tetrarch · 22-05-2019 2:20pm

I'n not saying those rules are foolproof, or that I eliminated horses correctly using those rules.
There are always exceptions.
Rules for fools, guides for the wise.

The Tetrarch · 22-05-2019 2:34pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I would prefer to do a trifecta with the tote tbh. In saying that i would be worried about the competition as well.

It is hard enough backing the winner, never mind the first 3 home !!

You can do a Trifecta with Tote UK through Betfair.
It is a good bet if you have done your analysis.
It is best to do a few combinations.
Some years they have a guaranteed pot (10k or 20k).

OK, here is the aftertiming.
I went to Epsom in 2002.
I knew High Chaparral was the winner before I went there.
After he won the Derrinstown he came into the unsaddling not in the slightest out of puff. He was ready.
I did not back him for the Derby, but did a Euro 100 double Kazzia 4/1 Oaks and High Chaparral 9/4 Derby.
On the night before the race in the hotel I split the Derby into A, B, C horses and the no hopers.
I did 12 x GBP 2 trifectas, and has the 1,2,3 in correct order, paying GBP 292.90 for GBP 1 (received GBP 484.40 for the GBP 2 stake).
High Chaparral was my banker in all the bets except one where I put Hawk Wing first.

I had 1,2,4 twice in the Oaks to a GBP 5 stake. Painful as the div in one was over 200/1.

I think in 2019 it will be Broome and Sir Dragonet with one from Circus Maximus, Mohawk, Japan.

PhuckHugh22 · 22-05-2019 2:55pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I would prefer to do a trifecta with the tote tbh. In saying that i would be worried about the competition as well.

It is hard enough backing the winner, never mind the first 3 home !!

A combination tricast on 8 runners(which Aidan has entered at the moment)(before taking into account Sir Dragonet) would cost 336 times your stake. Granted all of these will not run.
You can do a tricast if you want but it is a very different bet when a trainer has more than the 3 runners.

I think the price is poor enough myself but it is not the same as how what you are saying above.

The Tetrarch · 22-05-2019 3:05pm

PhuckHugh22 wrote: »

A combination tricast on 8 runners(which Aidan has entered at the moment)(before taking into account Sir Dragonet) would cost 336 times your stake. Granted all of these will not run.
You can do a tricast if you want but it is a very different bet when a trainer has more than the 3 runners.

I think the price is poor enough myself but it is not the same as how what you are saying above.

I was talking about trifectas, which is picking the 1,2,3 in the correct finishing order.
You say tricast which I think might be 1,2,3 in any order.

I would not do all possible combinations of eight runners.
My A pick was High Chaparral
My B pick was Hawk Wing
My C picks were half a dozen other runners who might place. (C,D,E,F,G,H)

Trifectas
A,B,C - A,B,D - A,B,E - A,B,F - A,B,G - A,B,H (GBP 2 each)
A,C,B - A,D,B - A,E,B - A,F,B - A,G,B - A,H,B (GBP 1 each)
B,A,C - B,A,D - B,A,E - B,A,F (GBP 1 each)
Something like the above, picking my A choice always in 1st or 2nd, and others to finish in 3rd spot. And betting more with A in 1st spot.

If you are fairly certain of the winner then all you are doing in a Trifecta is picking horses for 2nd and 3rd.
The dividend can be big on a Trifecta, but it is a difficult task.

PhuckHugh22 · 22-05-2019 3:08pm

The Tetrarch wrote: »

I was talking about trifectas, which is picking the 1,2,3 in the correct finishing order.
You say tricast which I think might be 1,2,3 in any order.

I would not do all possible combinations of eight runners.
My A pick was High Chaparral
My B pick was Hawk Wing
My C picks were half a dozen other runners who might place. (C,D,E,F,G,H)

Trifectas
A,B,C - A,B,D - A,B,E - A,B,F - A,B,G - A,B,H (GBP 2 each)
A,C,B - A,D,B - A,E,B - A,F,B - A,G,B - A,H,B (GBP 1 each)
B,A,C - B,A,D - B,A,E - B,A,F (GBP 1 each)
Something like the above, picking my A choice always in 1st or 2nd, and others to finish in 3rd spot. And betting more with A in 1st spot.

If you are fairly certain of the winner then all you are doing in a Trifecta is picking horses for 2nd and 3rd.
The dividend can be big on a Trifecta, but it is a difficult task.

Maybe you are confused i was talking to the other poster about a price that was offered by a bookmaker for AOB to train the first 3 home.

The Tetrarch · 22-05-2019 3:09pm

PhuckHugh22 wrote: »

Maybe you are confused i was talking to the other poster.

I was a bit.

IAMAMORON · 22-05-2019 3:43pm

PhuckHugh22 wrote: »

A combination tricast on 8 runners(which Aidan has entered at the moment)(before taking into account Sir Dragonet) would cost 336 times your stake. Granted all of these will not run.
You can do a tricast if you want but it is a very different bet when a trainer has more than the 3 runners.

I think the price is poor enough myself but it is not the same as how what you are saying above.

I wouldn't be putting 8 different combinations for starters. You can't make money carpet bombing the bookies, they still get the angle.

Hypothetically speaking, if I pick 4 runners on a quadcast it would cost 4x3x2x1= 24 units?

A tricast would be 3*2*1 = 6 units

Correct me if I am wrong here?

PhuckHugh22 · 22-05-2019 3:55pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I wouldn't be putting 8 different combinations for starters. You can't make money carpet bombing the bookies, they still get the angle.

Hypothetically speaking, if I pick 4 runners on a quadcast it would cost 4x3x2x1= 24 units?

A tricast would be 3*2*1 = 6 units

Correct me if I am wrong here?

Strictly speaking you have arrived at the right number.
So a couple of points.

If you are reffering to a Tricast with 4 selections it is still called a tricast.

So as you say a tricast with multiple selections would be like this.
With X number of selections.
(X)*(X-1)*(X-2)

So for 6 selections it would be.
6*5*4=120 combinations

Epsom Derby 2019

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