Winter 20/21 - General Discussion

We're not going to get much snow this year are we?, do you think?

It was snowing in Ireland already in the last couple of weeks and the forecast is for very cold from Christmas to new year. It has hardly been a very mild December so far??

daniel_t1409 wrote: »

Doubt we'll get snow. This winter is just going to continue being mild and wet. I am thinking of starting a spring thread already.

Sorry if i sound depressing, it's just the most likely outcome

daniel_t1409 wrote: »

Doubt we'll get snow. This winter is just going to continue being mild and wet. I am thinking of starting a spring thread already.

Sorry if i sound depressing, it's just the most likely outcome

You do have a valid reason for believing that this winter will likely continue mild and wet as that is a fairly familiar scenario in this country. It is our regular default position. Cold weather enthusiasts will know that so much has to fall in place for a significant wintry outbreak here and only very little has to go wrong for the Atlantic to assert it's mild influence.
I will not be wishing away the winter thread away yet however as I agree with Slashermcguirk, that it has not been overly mild so far this December. In fact, I saw a fresh dusting of white on the very top of Nephin which is the highest mountain near me on my way home this afternoon. Last Saturday, there was still the very odd remnant of white still left on it's upper slopes from the previous snowfall of nine days before.
Some of our eastern posters reported ice days earlier in the month and we have had patches of freezing fog also. There is also the potential brewing for a shot of cold air around the Christmas period so if you like cold, the start of this winter has not been the worst. I know the reality is that our climate is fairly unspectacular with regards to extremes and those of us who are drawn to a weather forum often have to live off slim pickings. As some posters have said recently, at times there does not seem to be much to separate our winters and summer but I personally am still keeping my optimism that this winter might deliver a fall of snow somewhere. My expectations of it are of course limited. I think most who like the white stuff would be content with a couple of inches of it.
Maybe with a bit of luck, you might get another chance over the next few weeks to take another nice snowy snap like you posted from 2018 recently. Keep the spring thread on hold just yet!:)

Latest charts means last forecast is changed...no wonder met eireann have a diiferent forecast everyday...sure if we followed what the charts show everyday we wouldn't have a clue either:pac:

Hooter23 wrote: »

Latest charts means last forecast is changed...no wonder met eireann have a diiferent forecast everyday...sure if we followed what the charts show everyday we wouldn't have a clue either:pac:

The Irish weather is notoriously unpredictable.

If I were MET E I'd never give a forecast for more than 5 days in advance - it's subject to too much change and just continually makes them look like fools to the public (even if it's not their fault).

mcburns07 wrote: »

Not sure if this is the right place to post this, but the snow in NYC should be interesting over the next 24 hours.

This fella is doing a live stream walkabout of the city and the snow is accumulating quite quickly already. Heaviest snow expected from 3am our time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lk4a1-von_U&ab_channel=ActionKid

He's finished streaming, here's another guy. Really coming down in NYC!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pBC7c1x6WzA

18z GFS was not very interesting so may as well enjoy somebody else's fun.

carltonleon wrote: »

So jealous !!!! I know we would come to a standstill if that happened here but it would be lovely (in my opinion before I get slaughtered by the non cold lovers)....

It happened here in March 2018

NY is at a standstill too, public transport was cancelled and people were advised to avoid travel. Kids online schooling too.

It's a bit of a myth that other places handle snow and ice better than us. Unless you live somewhere that is permanently frozen for the winter, you can only react to what happens when it happens.

Danno wrote: »

Everyone on this forum today wishing...

The scenes from New York.....soooo jealous!!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MmbusuWW09k

This is not too much to ask surely for the 25th ; )

Although i do believe January will bring the goods big time.

Not like this here (live)..

Serious lack of updates on today’s models. I guess that means people are not confident of any snow over the next week to 10 days then. It still looks quite cold and seasonable to me. Maybe slightly milder from 27th but that could flip back to cold. Too far out anyway. Christmas Eve and Day look cold and mainly dry.

lostweekend3 wrote: »

Serious lack of updates on today’s models. I guess that means people are not confident of any snow over the next week to 10 days then. It still looks quite cold and seasonable to me. Maybe slightly milder from 27th but that could flip back to cold. Too far out anyway. Christmas Eve and Day look cold and mainly dry.

I've stopped posting coz I don't know what to post! Models keep flipping. ECM still ok out to Xmas day as things stand

The 18z GFS really went on a tear opening up the floodgates to arctic cold after Christmas. Although usually not as reliable as its other times of day, the 18z GFS would have had some benefit of late breaking data after the massive interior northeast U.S. snowstorm. That of course will anchor a cold pattern over the eastern U.S. for some time to come, probably on the whole not a positive given the usual teleconnections, but I've noticed in my research that cold in the eastern half of the U.S. and parts of eastern Canada will correlate better with west European cold the later into the winter you get. By early February there is almost a 1:1 correspondence, December is entirely random, January somewhere in between.

We won't know with much certainty how things are really going to go after the 22nd until the storm gets out into the middle of the ocean and models get a better handle on its complex evolution (already a two-part system, could break up into three parts). At least there is some optimism about wintry synoptics being in the mix at a stage of winter where you don't want to see raging zonality holding the fort, because it seems like late December sets the template for most of January in most years. Changes of pattern seem to come mostly around 21st-24th Dec and late Jan into early Feb.