Winter 20/21 - General Discussion

Goldfinch8

daniel_t1409 wrote: »

Ugh, I hate the long evenings in the summer. Just feels weird for it to be 22:00 and still bright outside. Don't mind the early mornings though, love getting up early to watch sunrise .

I have to say that I am the opposite and love those long evenings in June when the twilight lingers long in the northwestern sky. On a clear night, you might be lucky and have the added bonus of some noctilucent clouds brightening up the northern horizon into the wee hours.
I don't mind the winter as such and love the prospect of a snow chase though they rarely come to fruition. There is no logic to why I like it but I think it is the inner child in me that still loves that hypnotic trance of watching snowflakes fall at night as they are lit up by an outside light.
It is the blue skies that I probably like the most in any season. Cold, crisp, frosty weather will do me nicely in the winter and even though we are no strangers to rain here in the west, I really despise those grey days of rain that we can get in the winter when the temperature remains around 4 or 5 degrees.
If I could cherry pick a few days, I would take the weather that we had at the end of last May and over the June bank holiday weekend. That was glorious!

Oscar Bravo

Goldfinch8 wrote: »

I have to say that I am the opposite and love those long evenings in June when the twilight lingers long in the northwestern sky. On a clear night, you might be lucky and have the added bonus of some noctilucent clouds brightening up the northern horizon into the wee hours.
I don't mind the winter as such and love the prospect of a snow chase though they rarely come to fruition. There is no logic to why I like it but I think it is the inner child in me that still loves that hypnotic trance of watching snowflakes fall at night as they are lit up by an outside light.
It is the blue skies that I probably like the most in any season. Cold, crisp, frosty weather will do me nicely in the winter and even though we are no strangers to rain here in the west, I really despise those grey days of rain that we can get in the winter when the temperature remains around 4 or 5 degrees.
If I could cherry pick a few days, I would take the weather that we had at the end of last May and over the June bank holiday weekend. That was glorious!

fully agree

daniel_t1409

Wow, I'm the only one who doesn't really like the long evenings in summer? I don't mind it being bright until 8-9pm, but after 10pm it just seems too late to be bright. Or maybe I'm having bad memories of this year's awful summer.

Dickie10

aw i absolutley love the long summer nights, espically going out for beers on a sturday night or sun evening in summer , glorius sitting in a beer garden of a pub in high summer at 9pm and still broad daylight and maybe 17/18 celcius. thats heaven. Actually when i retire i paln on going to nz or australia from october to april and never seeing a winter again. its actually due to get brighter by 1 min per day from dec 16th. i always feel after paddys day the back is broke on winter, it cant throw much at you after that as day length has it beat.up to paddys day though nothing is ever off the table. dont forget on april 1st each year its bright til after 8:30pm

Artane2002

daniel_t1409 wrote: »

Wow, I'm the only one who doesn't really like the long evenings in summer? I don't mind it being bright until 8-9pm, but after 10pm it just seems too late to be bright. Or maybe I'm having bad memories of this year's awful summer.

I like the long evenings in summer but I also like the late sunrises in winter. I'm not keen on sunrise being so early during summer, sometimes I go to sleep after the sun is up during summer which I don't enjoy doing.

daniel_t1409

I will say that you don't know what you're missing if you've never been up at sunrise in summer. It's incredible with the birdsong, everything is still quiet, and just watching it get brighter. Sadly I never got to do it this year because of the s*** weather but I would highly recommend it.

Sunny morning in wexford currently.

Thelonious Monk

I always hate if you have friends around and you're having beers etc then someone opens a curtain and there's blinding sun and the panic sets in as people realise they need to go home. In winter you can be at a party till 6am and go home and it still doesn't feel bad as it's pitch black.

pauldry

Very dense fog here today. Dont see that mentioned on forecast

JCX BXC

pauldry wrote: »

Very dense fog here today. Dont see that mentioned on forecast

Where are you? Sligo is it?

ZX7R

Gonzo wrote: »

Chistmas is not a write off yet as it is still 2 weeks away and plenty can change over the next week, however the charts have become more uneventful with each run and we have a fairly average to mild Atlantic setup between now and the 21st of December. Perhaps over time the jet will dip futher southwards to allow us into the colder air nearer to Christmas. For now all is still to play for but so far the mild and Atlantic is winning despite the blocking that is set up and forecast to strength over the next week with an increasingly negative NAO and AO.





We also have a warming taking place that looks to fall just short of a SSW, this may or may not affect us come January, only time will tell. it appears this warming won't be enough to completely split the PV, it will stretch it somewhat and maybe displace it further south so not really a proper SSW.



Compared to last winter and the winter before that at least we have a few building blocks in place but none of it looks convincing enough to summon a beast in time for Christmas or the run up to the New Year.

The warming in the cart is going to be affected by the positioning of the Russian high.
Two weeks ago polish forecasting agency released there long range weather forecast.
They were forecasting this warming and basically said the Russian high will dictate what will happen.
Two main scenarios.
The Russian high will push further north and east bringing a near direct northerly blast to eastern and central Europe
This would be a very snowy picture for central Europe as you would have a feed of moisture been steered up from the south meeting the cold air from the north.
Or the high will start to move east and more southern bringing a north east blast.
Both are cold and snowy for eastern and central Europe although this would also bring much colder temperatures
But for Ireland the second would be more preferable as an easterly would be easier sourced.

Supercell

In the short term the fax charts look like the Atlantic is back in full control to my eye, thats hard to shift. My money at this point is on a mild wet and probably stormy xmas period. Hope thats wrong.

YanSno

YanSno wrote: »

Looks like High Pressure will dominate for the next 7 days. It will be dry, cold and frosty during the night with fog in places. HP is trying to retrograde over Greenland if that happens chances of a north or north easterly is possible but i don't think this will happen due to a tropical disturbance around Bermuda which will nudge the HP either to our west or over Ireland bringing in westerly winds. Looking further down the analogue and the rest of the winter my predictions are that our weather will be dominated with Low pressure piling in from the west with colder interlude. It will be fairly zonal for most of this winter and it could get very stormy around end of December into the new year. Chances of a cold and snowy period could happen around end of January into February. Let's see how this pans out.

Looks like the conveyor belt is fully functional as predicted

Storm 10

I see MT has mentioned a storm for next week any updates

Gonzo

Supercell wrote: »

In the short term the fax charts look like the Atlantic is back in full control to my eye, thats hard to shift. My money at this point is on a mild wet and probably stormy xmas period. Hope thats wrong.

at this stage it's starting to look like any hope of a decent easterly or north-easterly in time for Christmas is off the table. We will probably end up with a very Atlantic driven mild and wet Christmas or in no man's land with 7 or 8C and dry. My money is on the Atlantic, the conveyor belt looks like it's back big time for the forseeable future.

King of Spades

Gonzo wrote: »

at this stage it's starting to look like any hope of a decent easterly or north-easterly in time for Christmas is off the table. We will probably end up with a very Atlantic driven mild and wet Christmas or in no man's land with 7 or 8C and dry. My money is on the Atlantic, the conveyor belt looks like it's back big time for the forseeable future.

That’s a shame. A white Christmas would have cheered a lot of people up this year, just as the sun did in Spring during the first lockdown.

Although I presume the forecast can still change as it’s 2 weeks away?

pauldry

Its a shame alright and the cold pools we need are getting further and further away by the year coz of Climate Change. There is a cold pool that comes down from Greenland from time to time and thats all we can really tap into for snow at this time I think.

Later in February and March the Continent sometimes provides a few small opportunities. I think most people accept now that cold spells dont last long here anymore (even in 2018 it was 3 or 4 days) but it would be nice to get a snowy morning on Christmas Day. Cant we tamper with the charts and make it snow?

Gonzo

King of Spades wrote: »

That’s a shame. A white Christmas would have cheered a lot of people up this year, just as the sun did in Spring during the first lockdown.

Although I presume the forecast can still change as it’s 2 weeks away?

it can still change but at the moment nothing is lining up to open the freezer in our direction within the next 2 weeks. No mid Atlantic ridge stretching up to Greenland, high pressure close to Spain and low pressures barreling in one after another off the Atlantic into north-western Europe. The Siberian high is also due to push back well into interior Russia away from the NE of Europe.

The run up to Christmas is now looking mild especially for the European continent with winds up from the south or south-west. Away from high ground in Scandinavia and the Alps, there looks to be very little if any snow throughout Europe over the next 2 weeks unless there is a sudden change in the models very soon.

nacho libre

pauldry wrote: »

Its a shame alright and the cold pools we need are getting further and further away by the year coz of Climate Change. There is a cold pool that comes down from Greenland from time to time and thats all we can really tap into for snow at this time I think.

?

While significant snow events were seemingly more frequent in the past, they usually lasted no more than 3 or 4 days. The notable exceptions being December 2000, December 2009 and 2010. Even the potent northerlies, which as you mentioned seem to be a thing of the past, rarely lasted a week.

As regards the longer term outlook, the ec46 and glosea updates are not very encouraging at all if you want a beast from the east. The glosea 5 update is interesting because they were suggesting a possible split vortex in January. Whether that has been revised, or it's that they do not see it working out in our favour is not certain.

It's not all doom and gloom, in a cold zonal pattern some parts of the country may well see snow at times, but we are unlikely to get ice days with substantial accumulations of snow.

sryanbruen

nacho libre wrote: »

While significant snow events were seemingly more frequent in the past, they usually lasted no more than 3 or 4 days. The notable exceptions being December 2000, December 2009 and 2010. Even the potent northerlies, which as you mentioned seem to be a thing of the past, rarely lasted a week.

As regards the longer term outlook, the ec46 and glosea updates are not very encouraging at all if you want a beast from the east. The glosea 5 update is interesting because they were suggesting a possible split vortex in January. Whether that has been revised, or it's that they do not see it working out in our favour is not certain.

It's not all doom and gloom, in a cold zonal pattern some parts of the country may well see snow at times, but we are unlikely to get ice days with substantial accumulations of snow.

Stratospheric signals remain the same as far as I can see, minor wave-1 displacements with the SPV flatlining in a relative weak state rather than be obliterated altogether. Any chances of a split be after the New Year in my opinion.

As for the troposphere level.. looks like a classic misfortune for Europe of being on the milder side of the blocking to me.

jirafa

How likely is a white Christmas this year? 11/12/2020.

Met Office - Weather

Alex and Aidan discussed the chances in their '3 Minute Met' feature in Weather Studio Live (Episode 93).

The forecast and any weather warnings within this video are accurate at time of recording.

Oneiric 3

Goldfinch8 wrote: »

I have to say that I am the opposite and love those long evenings in June when the twilight lingers long in the northwestern sky. On a clear night, you might be lucky and have the added bonus of some noctilucent clouds brightening up the northern horizon into the wee hours.
I don't mind the winter as such and love the prospect of a snow chase though they rarely come to fruition. There is no logic to why I like it but I think it is the inner child in me that still loves that hypnotic trance of watching snowflakes fall at night as they are lit up by an outside light.
It is the blue skies that I probably like the most in any season. Cold, crisp, frosty weather will do me nicely in the winter and even though we are no strangers to rain here in the west, I really despise those grey days of rain that we can get in the winter when the temperature remains around 4 or 5 degrees.
If I could cherry pick a few days, I would take the weather that we had at the end of last May and over the June bank holiday weekend. That was glorious!

Not a fan of the long evenings myself, but having said that, there is something ancient and magical about mid-summer twilights. They are like none other in the year. The long nights at this time of year don't bother me in the least. Always liked and looked forward to them and in fairness, they don't last too long anyway. By the end of January, we'll already be noticing a big difference. I don't think I could live in a region of the world where there is no sense of 'season'. I am of northern climes; it is just inbuilt in me.

appledrop

I absolutely adore the long summer evenings!

I hate the way you can get a really warm day in Sept but it is let down by going dark earlier than I would like as no longer peak summer.

I'd agree with Goldfinch that its beautiful blue skies I love the most.

Thats why I loved this Autumn so much because we got so many dry, bright days + had more sunshine hours than summer.

I hate snow for Christmas, bah humbug!

Just makes it so difficult when travelling to see people even though that will be more limited this year.

Hooter23

Both our summer and winter are bad for the opposite reasons....in winter its dark too early for too long...summer its the opposite problem its dosn't get dark until after 11 and bright again by half 3/ 4 oclock...its like going from bad too worse we need something in between all year round...could be even worse though if we were further north

Gonzo

Hooter23 wrote: »

Both our summer and winter are bad for the opposite reasons....in winter its dark too early for too long...summer its the opposite problem its dosn't get dark until after 11 and bright again by half 3/ 4 oclock...its like going from bad too worse we need something in between all year round...could be even worse though if we were further north

the worst thing about our summers and winters is we normally get mild or warmer than average temperatures in the winter and colder than average in the summer.

Winter 2019/2020 was dominated by 13C and 14C days with 10C nights.
Summer 2020 was dominated by 15C days and 10C nights.

Barely any difference between the two except for the sunlight hours.

Donegal Storm

The long summer evenings are one thing I really missed about Ireland when living abroad, lived in places with much better climates but its always disappointing even on nice warm midsummer evenings seeing it get dark at 8pm. On the other hand I really hate the darkness at this time of year, if I ever have the funds I'm definitely buying a place in the Med to retreat to for the winter months in future

compsys

Gonzo wrote: »

the worst thing about our summers and winters is we normally get mild or warmer than average temperatures in the winter and colder than average in the summer.

Winter 2019/2020 was dominated by 13C and 14C days with 10C nights.
Summer 2020 was dominated by 15C days and 10C nights.

Barely any difference between the two except for the sunlight hours.

I get your point but it's a slight exaggeration to say the summer was 'dominated' by 15º days and that winter was dominated by 14º days.

Winter always throws up the odd 13 or 14º day in Ireland while summer throws up the odd bad day too - this year a bit more than usual mind you. But in general it's more like 17-20 in summer and 7-10 in winter.

However winters have definitely been trending far milder than summers in recent years - in fact summers have been quite close to average, which is the opposite of what you'd want really.

JanuarySnowstor

I see Steve Murr has called time on this Winter already
Almost as silly as his ramping posts over the last couple of weeks.
The reality is that things can and will change and writing off the Winter on 12th Dec is crazy.

Billcarson

Cold ramper in chief Steve Murr will be back on net weather im sure at the next sign of a possible cold spell whenever that happens and will get them all into a frenzy again lol.

Emme

Gonzo wrote: »

the worst thing about our summers and winters is we normally get mild or warmer than average temperatures in the winter and colder than average in the summer.

Winter 2019/2020 was dominated by 13C and 14C days with 10C nights.
Summer 2020 was dominated by 15C days and 10C nights.

Barely any difference between the two except for the sunlight hours.

You mean daylight hours. We don't get much sun here, especially in the summer.

icesnowfrost

I hate to say that the last few runs have definitely been a disappointment however it’s not all lost. Let’s see how the next few days go although it’s not great but not 100% gone. However it does look like there will be some kind of a scandi high at some point and might let the cold air in to us. SSW could help us out but won’t se the results of that for a few weeks correct me if I’m wrong.