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Cold Snap, T0-180Hours Only

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24567…34

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    #32
    tzfrantic
    Registered Users Posts: 126 ✭✭tzfrantic


    pistolpetes11 wrote: »
    Not looking to shabby from the AO, I would be even happier if the NAO was not trending back slightly positive on the 14 day forecast .

    AO

    190061.png

    NAO

    190062.png
    i would not worry about the nao returning postive as it may not happen as it has it going postive and on the next run it went to negative so it still could change


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    #33
    Larbre34
    Registered Users Posts: 23,845 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Frequent viewer here, always impressed and grateful for the amount of time people put into interpreting models for the layman! Its gratifying to see those recent forecasts coming to bear, even if the timescale has been a nightmare, even for the pros

    ME have considerably revised their Outlook for next week, will be interesting to see whether Gerry or Evelyn are deployed on RTE weather to deliver the bad (good) news!

    The battleground scenario will no doubt get very interesting, could be as productive as it is disruptive. Looking forward to the Boardsies nowcasts to see whats what over the next while


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    #34
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Met Update

    27 January 2012 11:45

    Today
    Sunny spells and scattered rain and hail showers this afternoon, most frequent and heaviest over Ulster and north Leinster. They'll gradually die out through the evening. It will be cold highest temperatures of 6 to 8 degrees and fresh west to northwest winds.

    Tonight

    Tonight will be very cold and frosty as temperatures fall to between zero and minus 3 degrees. Some mist and fog patches may form also. Thickening cloud will bring drizzle to Atlantic coasts towards dawn.



    Tomorrow

    Tomorrow will start off cold and mainly dry. There'll be some bright or sunny spells in the east. Rain and drizzle will spread across the western half of the country through the morning and will extend to eastern areas through the afternoon and evening. Highest temperatures will range from 4 to 6 degrees in the east and north, and from 7 to 10 degree in the west and South.

    Outlook

    The week ahead looks like it will become much colder again.

    Monday next looks cloudy and wet with the risk of some wintry falls in the East.

    Tuesday and Wednesday look like they will bring some rain at times mainly to Western areas with drier but much colder weather in the East. Nights will be cold with frost in many places and the risk of icy patches.

    Thursday looks mainly dry at the moment with rain moving down across the country on Friday followed by a cold and frosty night Friday night.


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    #35
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    A little screen record of a snow acum chart from that 6Z run of the GFS , I might be tempting faith here !

    Plus these charts are known not to be very accurate


    PS its my first time doing a clip like this , Il have it include the days and dates next time !
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hHUn7R6xVHw


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    #36
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,143 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    The Uk Met Office extended outlook:

    UK Outlook for Saturday 11 Feb 2012 to Saturday 25 Feb 2012:
    Cold weather looks likely during this period, with both daytime maximum and nighttime minimum temperatures likely to be below or well below average in southern areas, and still below average in the north. Rainfall amounts should be around average in northern areas, with some snow at times. Further south rainfall is likely to be above average with some prolonged spells of rain possible, with also a risk of some significant falls of snow. Sunshine amounts will probably be around or slightly above average.
    Updated: 1407 on Fri 27 Jan 2012


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    #37
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 5,979 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    If that cold shifts about 100-150 miles west before sunday it could be fun on the east coast.

    Biting my tongue but the westward march of the cold continues.


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    #38
    Larbre34
    Registered Users Posts: 23,845 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    http://www.independent.ie/national-news/snow-chance-of-a-big-freeze-forecasters-say-3001820.html

    Newspapers are so yesterdays news - Deirdre Lowe could be eating that with chips......


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    #39
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,143 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    baraca wrote: »
    If that cold shifts about 100-150 miles west before sunday it could be fun on the east coast.

    Biting my tongue but the westward march of the cold continues.

    if i picked 6 numbers on saturday night...but i believe!


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    #40
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    I find these charts good for pin pointing the cold boundary.

    Here it is @ 48 hours

    We need the dark blue boundary to push in over the east coast in future runs ;)

    Rtavn487.png

    And @ 72 hours

    Rtavn727.png


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    #41
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 5,979 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    munsterlegend wrote: »
    if i picked 6 numbers on saturday night...but i believe!

    Aye, But your lotto numbers haven't been trending to come up now have they?

    :pac:


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    #42
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,133 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    The cold air has been slowly shifting westward in the last few phases, surely its only a matter of time before we might have something on the board for most of the country, even if the west only sees it for a short while. Either way the East is looking very pretty for about 10cm+ of snowfall IF the charts go the preferred way.

    Will be booking a train to Dublin on Sunday :P IMO the definitive chart for the weekend will be the 06Z on Saturday. More interestingly is that for the first week in Feb we might see a cold air mass stall over Ireland while the Atlantic keeps on feeding in other systems, so even if the weekend doesn't pull off, next week has plenty of POTENTIAL.


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    #43
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    I know what will happen now, heavy rain all weekend.

    5c/3c at first then......

    4c/2c........

    then.... we finally get to 3c/1c.. bit of sleet mixed in.

    2c/0c, rain peters out.

    1c/0c, frosty night

    :D:o


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    #44
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Although meteorologists were tracking a "Siberian chill" blowing in from the west that could bring snowstorms to much of the eastern UK this weekend,

    Perhaps the author(s) in the Indo should take some geography lessons. Yesterdays ECM would taken at face value indeed have indicated a near miss. This is no longer the case.


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    #45
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,758 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Weathercheck wrote: »
    I know what will happen now, heavy rain all weekend.

    5c/3c at first then......

    4c/2c........

    then.... we finally get to 3c/1c.. bit of sleet mixed in.

    2c/0c, rain peters out.

    1c/0c, frosty night

    :D:o

    That's realism WC! No place for that in here....thank you! :D


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    #46
    Trotter
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,362 ✭✭✭Trotter


    Ive got my shorts and flip flops ready for February. In fact.. If it snows at my house I'll happily post a photo here of my shorts and flip flops in the snow. Im that confident because Ive been at this point so often before and Im not letting myself get excited at all.

    Now go get those catalogues out.. we've lawnmowers to buy.


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    #47
    blackius
    Closed Accounts Posts: 469 ✭✭blackius


    darkman2 wrote: »
    Perhaps the author(s) in the Indo should take some geography lessons. Yesterdays ECM would taken at face value indeed have indicated a near miss. This is no longer the case.
    You might be interested to know that Siobhán Ryan on RTE one just now,who's not just a weather presenter but actual met Éireann has the East in heavy rain on sunday,+9c and light south west winds...

    No mention of any upcoming cold either.


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    #48
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    First out of the blocks - 12z DWD has a slight upgrade - the trend continues

    Sunday

    gme-0-54.png?12


    gme-1-54.png?12


    Monday



    gme-1-66.png?12

    gme-0-72.png?12


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    #49
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    blackius wrote: »
    You might be interested to know that Siobhán Ryan on RTE one just now,who's not just a weather presenter but actual met Éireann has the East in heavy rain on sunday,+9c and light south west winds...

    No mention of any upcoming cold either.


    What do you think? :pac:


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    #50
    blackius
    Closed Accounts Posts: 469 ✭✭blackius


    Well I think if theres a risk of snow,why on earth don't they mention it on their tv forecasts.


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    #51
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,758 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    blackius wrote: »
    You might be interested to know that Siobhán Ryan on RTE one just now,who's not just a weather presenter but actual met Éireann has the East in heavy rain on sunday,+9c and light south west winds...

    No mention of any upcoming cold either.

    They all seem to do their own thing in there?

    The 11.45am update on the Met E website still has this outlook:

    Monday next looks cloudy and wet with the risk of some wintry falls in the East.

    Tuesday and Wednesday look like they will bring some rain at times mainly to Western areas with drier but much colder weather in the East. Nights will be cold with frost in many places and the risk of icy patches.

    I just hope Evelyn is on for the weekend, if she can, she will make it snow.


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    #52
    tzfrantic
    Registered Users Posts: 126 ✭✭tzfrantic


    they might be just down playing the snow or they are unsure how the siberian air will go to.


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    #53
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,758 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    tzfrantic wrote: »
    they might be just down playing the snow or they are unsure how the siberian air will go to.

    True.

    I suppose there needs really to be a health warning on this thread about the potential for snow.

    If I were Met E and looking at the latest charts DM2 posted above, it's really not cold enough for snow and too early to include in their forecast. We can say/wish for what we want on here.

    At least the trend seems to be there pushing the cold air ever so slightly west.

    As WC suggested earlier, this could easily be (more likely be) a cold rain event.


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    #54
    tzfrantic
    Registered Users Posts: 126 ✭✭tzfrantic


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    True.

    I suppose there needs really to be a health warning on this thread about the potential for snow.

    If I were Met E and looking at the latest charts DM2 posted above, it's really not cold enough for snow and too early to include in their forecast. We can say/wish for what we want on here.

    At least the trend seems to be there pushing the cold air ever so slightly west.

    As WC suggested earlier, this could easily be (more likely be) a cold rain event.
    fun killer i want snow nah i need snow so you get on your broom and get me the siberian air mass to make it's way to ireland


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    #55
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,143 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    True.

    I suppose there needs really to be a health warning on this thread about the potential for snow.

    If I were Met E and looking at the latest charts DM2 posted above, it's really not cold enough for snow and too early to include in their forecast. We can say/wish for what we want on here.

    At least the trend seems to be there pushing the cold air ever so slightly west.

    As WC suggested earlier, this could easily be (more likely be) a cold rain event.

    Uk met office have it as follows for Sunday to Tuesday in their forecast:

    'Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

    Eastern areas largely fine but cold through the period. Rain in the west will gradually turn to snow on Monday, mainly affecting hills. More prolonged rain in Scotland.
    Updated: 1515 on Fri 27 Jan 2012'


    so more than likely just on higher ground is the current prediction.


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    #56
    Harps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    On current forecasts despite the upgrade since yesterday I still don't see snow over the coming days and quite an average few days immediately away from the east coast. An encouraging trend today and plenty of potential later in the week but its still looking like rain or sleet at best at the moment

    Edit: Beaten to it by DOCARCH!


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    #57
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    True.

    I suppose there needs really to be a health warning on this thread about the potential for snow.

    If I were Met E and looking at the latest charts DM2 posted above, it's really not cold enough for snow and too early to include in their forecast.

    I am actually not focusing on Monday tbh but more after that. Monday looks "interesting" but no more then that at this point. Will still have to be watched carefully because as has been said a bit of tweaking and there could well be sleet and snow to low levels.


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    #58
    burger1979
    Registered Users Posts: 406 ✭✭burger1979


    If the 'snow' does come to fruition for the East coast, can I ask what effect the Isle of Man would have on blocking certain sections of the east coast from snow? We seen it last year with the north East winds bringing the clouds over the Irish sea from England/Scotland and then dumping their load (so to speak on the Isle of Man) and these clouds then disappearing.


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    #59
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Weathercheck wrote: »
    I know what will happen now, heavy rain all weekend.

    5c/3c at first then......

    4c/2c........

    then.... we finally get to 3c/1c.. bit of sleet mixed in.

    2c/0c, rain peters out.

    1c/0c, frosty night

    :D:o

    This is actually the most likely out come at the moment !


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    #60
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,656 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    blackius wrote: »
    Well I think if theres a risk of snow,why on earth don't they mention it on their tv forecasts.

    it could be a seniority thing- given the uncertainty she does not want to be the one to call it and then have to backtrack. so perhaps it will be left to a more experienced colleague, like Evelyn to mention the s word closer to the time. i doubt it's because they are now certain there will be no snow.


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    #61
    Harps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    burger1979 wrote: »
    If the 'snow' does come to fruition for the East coast, can I ask what effect the Isle of Man would have on blocking certain sections of the east coast from snow? We seen it last year with the north East winds bringing the clouds over the Irish sea from England/Scotland and then dumping their load (so to speak on the Isle of Man) and these clouds then disappearing.

    No effect if the front on Sunday/Monday happens to fall as snow. Last year was a totally different set up with showers forming over the Irish Sea, this time its a front coming in from the Atlantic clashing with cold air to the east which potentially could lead to snow if its cold enough at the surface.


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