Tesla/Lithium stocks discussion

lucky john · 06-04-2017 1:58pm

zpehtsfd wrote: »

Here's an unbiased article that goes into great detail about the valuation of Tesla:

http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.ie/2016/07/tesla-story-meets-numbers-promise-meets.html

Its an interesting look at Tesla and shows how hard it is even for a smart guy to value this company. It clear from his attempts that he has failed at least twice and looks likely that his July '16 go at it is wrong as well. The speed of change in the company is what's catching him. Its that full throttle race to growth that makes Tesla stand out. They are no where near their full potential yet so comparing them to a flat lining company like Ford is pointless. Tesla is a Tec company first, an energy company second and an auto company third. the car is no more than a stylish box to sell their tec and energy in. It would be far more realistic to compare Tesla with Apple.
If you were to go back to Apple pre iphone I am sure there would be guys on here laughing at Apples Valuation and comparing it to Nokia or RIM. I'm wouldn't dare suggest that the same fate that befell either of those companies
will befall Ford or GM but back then Apple were first to realize that the least useful use of a phone was to make phone calls.

Of course a market flop could pull the rug from under Tesla as it would most other companies. Of course Tesla will hit a peak at some stage and the anti Musk/tesla/spacex guys can have their I told you so days in the sun. Until then I will happy watch and admire Tesla.

Sabre Man · 06-04-2017 2:51pm

They have addressed the cash flow situation by extending their payment deadlines to suppliers to 60 days for Model 3 parts. That means they will get money for sold cars before they have to pay the suppliers.

Customers will be able to order the new solar roofs soon. It will be interesting to see what the prices are and if they will be popular.

zpehtsfd · 06-04-2017 7:23pm

Sabre Man wrote: »

They have addressed the cash flow situation by extending their payment deadlines to suppliers to 60 days for Model 3 parts. That means they will get money for sold cars before they have to pay the suppliers.

Ah yes how could we forget when they had their first positive operating Cash Flow in years thanks to some nice maneuvering by management. Perfectly timed to lead into the SolarCity deal vote. That deal was a sham but the large shareholders could not afford to say no due to Musk's connection to it. Musk had them over a barrel.

Also i remember Musk saying that because suppliers were (paraphrasing) "so eager to be part of the Model 3 that they were more then happy to extend the payment deadlines". :pac::pac::pac::pac:

Sabre Man · 13-04-2017 8:35pm

Tesla Semi-truck due to arrive in September, “Seriously next level”
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-semi-truck-due-arrive-september-seriously-next-level/

Some seroiusly fast competition from Lucid here. Unlike Faraday Future, Lucid's far more affordable cars could pose a threat to Model S sales as well as sales of other fast cars.
https://www.teslarati.com/lucid-motors-air-217-mph-high-speed-stability-test/

Thargor · 13-04-2017 10:11pm

400 mile range in the Lucid? That has to be exaggerated.

cros13 · 23-04-2017 8:01pm

Thargor wrote: »

400 mile (643.74 km) range in the Lucid? That has to be exaggerated.

No, 130 kWh pack (on the top spec) and slightly higher efficiency than a Model S (the air is a smaller car with slightly better aero).

In real world numbers, a model S requires between 73.4kWh (at the speed limit, 22C Ambient Temp, 100kg payload) and 92.6kWh (10% above the speed limit, 500kg payload, 0C Ambient Temp, Cabin Temp 22C) to do Belfast to Cork. Based on the battery capacity and allowing for 5-10% bump in efficiency a 130kWh Lucid air would potentially be able to do Belfast to Cork and back to Dublin in one sitting. That's 688km.

Obviously it would depend on allowed depth of discharge etc. But Lucid's quoted numbers are their targets under the EPA testing cycle which most Irish EV drivers tend to beat.
A Tesla Model S 100D (100kWh) has a NEDC-rated range of 632km but an EPA rating of 540km. So, for a 130kWh pack an EPA cycle range of 644km would be conservative to say the least.

Lucid are supposed to be looking at a $700m capital raise to build their factory. Given the people involved, the market they're targeting and their comparatively realistic plan to market (vs Faraday Future or the other dreamers), I'd say they're worth a punt.

Tesla is overvalued by all normal measures, but there are massive potential upsides. Don't underestimate the value of that battery plant, with the possible exceptions of Daimler and maybe Nissan every other carmaker is going to be severely limited by the availability of batteries for at least the next 6-10 years. And any excess production can be effectively dumped at a few percent above cost on the Utility-scale storage market (that market is big enough to absorb 100X the gigafactories production with price per kWh being the only limiting factor).
I got my Tesla shares from privately held stock before IPO so... I figure why not let it ride...

b4bmm · 23-04-2017 8:56pm

Ya battery range anxiety with higher spec EV isn't an issue.
Even with a drive from say Belfast to Cork you have to stop along the way at least once
and its simply a case of working it in so that you can get a boost for 30-60 mins while you have lunch.

New Audi out soon and many more will follow, there will be a tsunami of EV's by 2020/21 and if your not taking it into account now when building a house your not being very forward thinking,

“Our Audi e-tron will be starting out in 2018 – the first electric car in its competitive field that is fit for everyday use. With a range of over 500 kilometers (310.7 miles) and the special electric driving experience, we will make this sporty SUV the must-have product of the next decade. Following close on its heels, in 2019, comes the production version of the Audi e-tron Sportback – an emotional coupé version that is thrillingly identifiable as an electric car at the very first glance.”

https://electrek.co/2017/04/18/audi-e-tron-sportback-electric-2019/#more-42098

cros13 · 23-04-2017 11:22pm

The big problem is going to be battery manufacturing. Raw material supply isn't a big deal, plenty of lithium out there and most are working with low or no cobalt chemistries for next gen cells.

Between LG Chem and Samsung SDI the manufacturing capacity under construction in europe right now (which will be supplying pretty much all the european marques with the exception of Daimler) will only be enough to supply 150-250 thousand EVs annually out of 13-14 million cars sold (depending on pack capacity).

Most of the battery suppliers won't build out capacity without guaranteed orders, and you can't blame them because the carmakers asked them to build capacity for 2008-2012 that never arrived and several companies went to the wall as a result.

Volkswagen finally woke up to that reality in the new year and allocated funds to building a plant after they were unable to negotiate supply agreements for the volumes they'll need to make a mass-market play.

Tesla faces an issue selling their excess production into this market as most planned cars are being built with prismatic cells (because the pack & cooling design is simpler) and Tesla/Panasonic will only be set up to build cylindrical cells.

Even with the market right now there are cell supply issues. Hyundai is sold out of the Ioniq BEV in Ireland and the UK until October (apart from the odd inventory/demo car). Partially that's because of reserved production for the US, and partially because LG Chem can't supply enough cells. GM has the same issue with the Bolt/Ampera-e, production is slow because LG Chem can't supply enough cells. GM sold out the entire 2017 allocation of the Bolt in South Korea in two hours with only 400 cars available to fill the 2000 orders that were placed that day.

b4bmm · 24-04-2017 12:03am

cros13 wrote: »

The big problem is going to be battery manufacturing. Raw material supply isn't a big deal, plenty of lithium out there and most are working with low or no cobalt chemistries for next gen cells.

Between LG Chem and Samsung SDI the manufacturing capacity under construction in europe right now (which will be supplying pretty much all the european marques with the exception of Daimler) will only be enough to supply 150-250 thousand EVs annually out of 13-14 million cars sold (depending on pack capacity).

Most of the battery suppliers won't build out capacity without guaranteed orders, and you can't blame them because the carmakers asked them to build capacity for 2008-2012 that never arrived and several companies went to the wall as a result.

Volkswagen finally woke up to that reality in the new year and allocated funds to building a plant after they were unable to negotiate supply agreements for the volumes they'll need to make a mass-market play.

Tesla faces an issue selling their excess production into this market as most planned cars are being built with prismatic cells (because the pack & cooling design is simpler) and Tesla/Panasonic will only be set up to build cylindrical cells.

Even with the market right now there are cell supply issues. Hyundai is sold out of the Ioniq BEV in Ireland and the UK until October (apart from the odd inventory/demo car). Partially that's because of reserved production for the US, and partially because LG Chem can't supply enough cells. GM has the same issue with the Bolt/Ampera-e, production is slow because LG Chem can't supply enough cells. GM sold out the entire 2017 allocation of the Bolt in South Korea in two hours with only 400 cars available to fill the 2000 orders that were placed that day.

The whole supply chain is lagging behind right now. I don't agree it's just manufacturing it's most definitely the raw material side too. Raw material constitutes the majority of costs of cell production. Far and away ahead of all other costs.

Lithium production is nowhere near where it should be because cell manufacturers are too slow at signing offtake agreements which will enable projects to get finance and begin construction. More production will mean more competition in the market and cheaper prices for all.

There is a big disconnect right now between the different aspects in the supply chain IMO. Nobody want to make the first move. The banks won't finance the mining operations because the mining operations don't have future sales supplies locked in to demonstrate viable operations because the cell manufacturers are being given mixed signals by many auto makers/stationary storage makers who won't pull their finger out all the while China is making them all look like mugs with massively increasing EV/buses sales and associated infrastructure. China is the only real market right now and the Model 3 must come good for the rest of the world to wake TF up.

Big oil is also trying its best to block progress lobbying politicians etc for as long as the can -Trump/Tillerson EPA disbanding is a farce along with huge fossil fuel subsidies that renewable subsidies don't come close to.

Your also wrong about cobalt going forward this link shows cobalt is a big part of the most in demand lithium Ion batteries going forward NMC type- Nickel manganese cobalt configuration.

Of all lithium-ion chemistries, NMC/Graphite is forecasted to experience the most growth between 2015 and 2025 at a CAGR of over 15%;

https://investorintel.com/sectors/technology-metals/technology-metals-intel/graphite-pro-reviews-recent-battery-event-conflict-mineral-challenge/

Silicon integration into LI-ion batteries gradually will see the next big breakthroughs in performance IMO. I think in their most recent batteries Tesla are already starting with silicon in the 2120 (?) cells

There will eventually be a point when things will go mental in the whole EV/battery space. The price point of the batteries and savings for consumers will be undeniable, IMO we are already there it's just people's misconceptions that are what's out of sync, but there needs to be more choice of models in the market before that will happen. By 2020 there will be a huge push on and 2023-25 there will be no looking back.

cros13 · 24-04-2017 1:14am

b4bmm wrote: »

Raw material constitutes the majority of costs of cell production. Far and away ahead of all other costs.

Agreed. But there is more flexibility than people sometimes think. Especially evident with Tesla Panasonic already being at or below $170/kWh

b4bmm wrote: »

Lithium production is nowhere near where it should be because cell manufacturers are too slow at signing offtake agreements which will enable projects to get finance and begin construction. More production will mean more competition in the market and cheaper prices for all.

The battery manufacturers don't have the capital and their parent companies have generally balked at allowing them the headroom. Unless their customer (the automaker) fronts them the money they are unwilling/unable to do it.

Compared to many other materials in the cells Lithium production can be ramped up fairly quickly. The only question is what price makes what Lithium deposits exploitable.

b4bmm wrote: »

There is a big disconnect right now between the different aspects in the supply chain IMO. Nobody want to make the first move.

Agreed, but when Tesla and Panasonic went looking for raw material supply for the gigafactory they didn't have a lot of trouble getting suppliers.

b4bmm wrote: »

Big oil is also trying its best to block progress lobbying politicians etc for as long as the can -McSnuffles/Tillerson EPA disbanding is a farce along with huge fossil fuel subsidies that renewable subsidies don't come close to.

Sure, but economic gravity can be a b**ch. Solar PV and EVs are both coming of age and they can only hold off talk of stranded assets for so long. There are enough fund managers driving Teslas already that the cat's probably not going back in the bag.

b4bmm wrote: »

Your also wrong about cobalt going forward this link shows cobalt is a big part of the most in demand lithium Ion batteries going forward NMC type- Nickel manganese cobalt configuration.

Of all lithium-ion chemistries, NMC/Graphite is forecasted to experience the most growth between 2015 and 2025 at a CAGR of over 15%;

There are low-cobalt NMC chemistries (despite the name). Tesla's 2170 cells are rumored to be based on a low-cobalt chemistry (I've heard the same rumors about silicon but that's a lot less credible than low-cobalt (there have been a number of instances where Tesla people stopped talking or seemed to be told to stop talking when low-cobalt chemistries came up during earnings calls, Q&A at conferences and the like, and silicon anode is a higher bar / would be a bigger breakthrough / would carry more risk)). There is a point where if demand gets too great and cobalt prices rise too far large portions of the EV and storage market can be offloaded to LMO and LiFe or other chemistries.

b4bmm wrote: »

There will eventually be a point when things will go mental in the whole EV/battery space. The price point of the batteries and savings for consumers will be undeniable, IMO we are already there it's just people's misconceptions that are what's out of sync, but there needs to be more choice of models in the market before that will happen. By 2020 there will be a huge push on and 2023-25 there will be no looking back.

Agreed. The minute the penny drops with Joe Public the available batteries are probably going to have to be rationed to the high-margin products. I don't think valuable low weight NCA/NMC batteries are going to be wasted on grid storage for a few years after that point.

The traditional car manufacturers should be following Tesla's lead and moving the top of their product range now to make a bit of money, limit demand and make the EV powertrain choice aspirational for their customers. Instead they're chasing after a mass market that doesn't quite exist yet with razor thin margins (if any), longer supply lines than the berlin airlift, unproven products from suppliers that have never built for EVs before and a retail network that's actively hostile to the product.

Prezatch · 02-05-2017 4:10pm

Electric cars are coming fast -- and that’s not just the opinion of carmakers anymore. Total SA, one of the world’s biggest oil producers, is now saying EVs may constitute almost a third of new-car sales by the end of the next decade.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-25/electric-car-boom-seen-triggering-peak-oil-demand-in-2030s

Better get investing in lithium/cobalt lads!

b4bmm · 06-05-2017 12:32am

Peak oil in the next 5 years if this prediction is right. Makes a lot of sense.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/no-one-will-own-a-car-in-the-future-2017-5?r=US&IR=T

Sabre Man · 11-05-2017 9:49am

Tesla solar roof prices come in cheaper than some had expected
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/10/tesla-solar-roof-prices-come-in-cheaper-than-some-had-expected.html

Still rather expensive and dependent on subsidies, at least in some (most?) markets.

Nody · 11-05-2017 1:28pm

Sabre Man wrote: »

Tesla solar roof prices come in cheaper than some had expected
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/10/tesla-solar-roof-prices-come-in-cheaper-than-some-had-expected.html

Still rather expensive and dependent on subsidies, at least in some (most?) markets.

The quotes I've seen puts them at about 7x the price of a normal roof and about 2x price of normal roof + normal sun panels...

b4bmm · 11-05-2017 9:34pm

I could be wrong but don't they claim high efficiency with these panels, have you taken that into account?

Also the fact the warranty is 25 years, which would be the case for a normal roof?

I need to look into it more myself, interested to see how competitive it is compared to other options.

Sabre Man · 15-05-2017 2:56pm

Tesla downgraded by major bull:
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/major-tesla-bull-just-downgraded-134651295.html

I think he's wrong on the expected sales figures.

cros13 · 15-05-2017 8:29pm

Nody wrote: »

The quotes I've seen puts them at about 7x the price of a normal roof and about 2x price of normal roof + normal sun panels...

Bloomberg et. al have been quoting the wrong figures.
In the US Tesla is charging about 20-30% more than a slate roof + panels.

Part of what's throwing out the figures is the press is often using asphalt tile roofs as the comparison which is the "normal" roofing material used in the US.
The slate roofs common in Ireland have about 4-5 times the lifespan and are a much more upmarket option in the US.
Musk idea is to both grab new builds that were going to be using premium roofs like slate anyway or catch the homeowners at the 20-25 year replacement for the asphalt tile roof.

A slate roof in the US is about $160-200 sq meter. Tesla is quoting $220-$250 sq meter for a roof with solar PV in 35% of the tiles.
It's certainly not outlandish, and works out very well once solar tax incentives and subsidies are factored in.

b4bmm · 15-05-2017 10:23pm

Is it something worth considering in Ireland/Uk given the unpredictable level of sunshine and cost?

Nody · 16-05-2017 5:27pm

cros13 wrote: »

Bloomberg et. al have been quoting the wrong figures.
In the US Tesla is charging about 20-30% more than a slate roof + panels.

Part of what's throwing out the figures is the press is often using asphalt tile roofs as the comparison which is the "normal" roofing material used in the US.
The slate roofs common in Ireland have about 4-5 times the lifespan and are a much more upmarket option in the US.
Musk idea is to both grab new builds that were going to be using premium roofs like slate anyway or catch the homeowners at the 20-25 year replacement for the asphalt tile roof.

A slate roof in the US is about $160-200 sq meter. Tesla is quoting $220-$250 sq meter for a roof with solar PV in 35% of the tiles.
It's certainly not outlandish, and works out very well once solar tax incentives and subsidies are factored in.

Sorry but I got no idea where you get your comparison prices but as confirmed by multiple people in the USA the cost of a 50 year tile roof is around $8 per square foot or $86 per square meter those are actual bought in the last year. The difference will easily buy you sun panels on top of them at a cheaper price AND save you money (if sun panels even make sense in the first place). This example taken from here and that's assuming you need (or want) to redo your whole roof in the first place.

b4bmm · 16-05-2017 9:39pm

I guess it depends on the quality and rating of the sun panels, as you call them, as opposed to the Tesla ones which give quite a long guarantee. Btw just because a company offers a guarantee in the solar industry doesn't mean much unless it's from a highly reputable company. It's a fast moving industry and a lot of companies are falling by the wayside due to a number of factors, mainly not being able to compete. There is a host of issues to consider not just straight up prices.

Sabre Man · 18-05-2017 10:06am

Buying Opportunity In Tesla? | Trading Nation | CNBC
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gTiw-tnc59A

Sabre Man · 19-05-2017 9:52pm

Tesla’s solar roof cost calculator validated by Consumer Reports
http://www.teslarati.com/consumer-reports-validates-teslas-solar-roof-cost-calculator/

But:
It’s important to note that conventional solar panels will almost always come in at a lower total installed cost, a faster “breakeven point” and ultimately generate more value for the homeowner over their useful life than a home with a Tesla Solar Roof. On the other hand, the new roof tiles do come with a very impressive warranty that adds value beyond just their solar energy production value.

It'll be interesting to see if this works out for Tesla. At least the solar tiles look better than traditional panels, which may make them more popular. I think they will do well in California initially. Over time production costs will probably come down and make them more competitive elsewhere as well.

Sabre Man · 22-05-2017 8:30pm

German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Monday is scheduled to break ground at a 500 million-euro ($543 million) plant to assemble lithium-ion energy-storage units for Daimler AG, which produces Mercedes-Benz and Maybach luxury cars.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-22/move-over-tesla-europe-s-building-its-own-battery-gigafactories

b4bmm · 25-05-2017 10:25pm

Tesla solar panel orders have exceeded expectations and sold out well into 2018

https://electrek.co/2017/05/25/tesla-solar-roof-tiles-sold-out-2018/amp/

Mr_Roger_Bongos · 30-05-2017 4:53pm

Tesla is now valued at more than 56 billion dollars.

As many have commented, this valuation is not based in the operating realities today but on an expectation of future value.

Tesla is a car/battery manufacturer. As the electric car industry and marketplace matures, they'll have plenty of competition from experienced car manufacturers.

Even if they're wildly successful, people want to be individual and even with
different models, my opinion is that they won't dominate the electric car or battery market.

I want to short this share based on the above, but as with everything in life - Timing is crucial.

KCross · 30-05-2017 5:04pm

Mr_Roger_Bongos wrote: »

Tesla is a car/battery manufacturer.

They have the home solar stuff as well.
And they are also producing batteries for electricity grid operators. Large scale commercial.

I wouldn't characterise them as solely a car company even though thats what they are primarily known for.

Mr_Roger_Bongos wrote: »

Even if they're wildly successful, people want to be individual and even with
different models, my opinion is that they won't dominate the electric car or battery market.

They won't dominate the car market. They won't have the scale to do so.

They might dominate the battery market though as they have heavily invested in that... more so than the other manufacturers who could find themselves out in the cold when they can't source batteries.

Mr_Roger_Bongos wrote: »

I want to short this share based on the above, but as with everything in life - Timing is crucial.

Even Musk admits the share price is over-valued so your timing will be critical. I'd say too critical to gamble anything major on it.

Sabre Man · 30-05-2017 5:40pm

I think shorting Tesla now is very risky. I believe Model 3 will launch on time and be quite popular despite the rather bland interior due to a fanatical fan base. Tesla will also unveil a truck in September and the solar roof appears to be doing well with regards to preorders.

If Tesla manages to pull off self driving from coast to coast by the end of the year, the shares will go even higher.

Nody · 30-05-2017 7:14pm

Sabre Man wrote: »

I think shorting Tesla now is very risky. I believe Model 3 will launch on time and be quite popular despite the rather bland interior due to a fanatical fan base. Tesla will also unveil a truck in September and the solar roof appears to be doing well with regards to preorders.

The Model 3 will in no way launch on time; they only got the machinery a month ago and that's delivery, not installed, fine tuned and actually working machines which usually take 6 months to tune in. The Model 3 will at best produce test models for the staff (because hey surprise, the model 3 has not even done the basic road testing yet). If they get 10k cars out this year I'll be surprised and those will be the normal shoddy quality (for example some model S cars still to this year are delivered with the roof window being slightly higher than the car causing a gap making a noise and this is after the other mechanical fiascos to date). The worst part will be that Tesla will have to actually ask people if they now want the car (which has another $7.5k for the "autonomous" driving system which is worse than what they had previously before the Israel company banned them from using their equipment) and when they start saying no (the resale value many hoped from a reservation simply not being there and a BMW 3 series electrical costs the same as a model 3 while having a whole different quality & equipment standard) they will need to start repaying money on their free loan. The problem being they are still losing billions a year and are not making a profit on the model 3 either....

If Tesla manages to pull off self driving from coast to coast by the end of the year, the shares will go even higher.

Not going to happen for so many reasons but to get you started go with the below scenario and explain how you'd pull it off in court:

Your car sees a block ahead and can't break in time to stop and need to evade. Evade left and you kill the driver (cliff drop); evade right and you drive over pedestrians. Which way is the car to evade and how do you defend it morally in court when sued by either A or B for the death? The answer is millions in paid litigation and penalties and forced to stop your autonomous cars from driving.

This will face every single fully autonomous car out there and short of country wide legislation for every scenario writing them free it's not going to be here any time soon on public roads on a large scale (this is beyond the fact of the need to apply for the right to drive on a county by county basis etc. as well).

Thargor · 30-05-2017 8:07pm

Nody wrote: »

Your car sees a block ahead and can't break in time to stop and need to evade. Evade left and you kill the driver (cliff drop); evade right and you drive over pedestrians. Which way is the car to evade and how do you defend it morally in court when sued by either A or B for the death? The answer is millions in paid litigation and penalties and forced to stop your autonomous cars from driving.

This will face every single fully autonomous car out there and short of country wide legislation for every scenario writing them free it's not going to be here any time soon on public roads on a large scale (this is beyond the fact of the need to apply for the right to drive on a county by county basis etc. as well).

Not really, self driving cars are inevitable, these issues will be sorted out fairly quickly. In a no-win situation like that the car will probably just decide to brake to the best of its ability and trust the (massive) crumple zones and airbags and various other features that make them the safest cars ever built to protect the passengers.

If anything does go wrong it will be analysed fully, a solution developed and it will be applied to all cars on the road and again and again the fatality and injury levels will be driven down to a tinier and tinier fraction of the levels seen in human operated cars. It will just be impossible to ignore, the day is coming very soon where the ordinary person wont be able to afford the insurance required to drive a manual car on public roads, if they can even find a company still offering it.

Sabre Man · 30-05-2017 8:52pm

Tesla got the machinery for making Model 3 in February.

Tesla confirms retooling of factory for Model 3 this month, will ‘pause’ Model S/X production for a week
https://electrek.co/2017/02/08/tesla-model-3-fremont-factory-production-shutdown/

Model 3s have been spotted out and about for almost two months.
https://electrek.co/2017/04/04/tesla-model-3-spotted-picture/

Autopilot 2.0 is almost on par with version 1, which was supplied by Mobileye. It will soon be better and new cars have more cameras and sensors.

Self driving from coast to coast is actually not that hard as it's mostly motorways.

EDIT: They are currently building Model 3 batteries by hand so the battery production line isn't complete yet.

b4bmm · 04-06-2017 2:48am

Nody wrote: »

Sabre Man wrote: »

I think shorting Tesla now is very risky. I believe Model 3 will launch on time and be quite popular despite the rather bland interior due to a fanatical fan base. Tesla will also unveil a truck in September and the solar roof appears to be doing well with regards to preorders.

The Model 3 will in no way launch on time; they only got the machinery a month ago and that's delivery, not installed, fine tuned and actually working machines which usually take 6 months to tune in. The Model 3 will at best produce test models for the staff (because hey surprise, the model 3 has not even done the basic road testing yet). If they get 10k cars out this year I'll be surprised and those will be the normal shoddy quality (for example some model S cars still to this year are delivered with the roof window being slightly higher than the car causing a gap making a noise and this is after the other mechanical fiascos to date). The worst part will be that Tesla will have to actually ask people if they now want the car (which has another $7.5k for the "autonomous" driving system which is worse than what they had previously before the Israel company banned them from using their equipment) and when they start saying no (the resale value many hoped from a reservation simply not being there and a BMW 3 series electrical costs the same as a model 3 while having a whole different quality & equipment standard) they will need to start repaying money on their free loan. The problem being they are still losing billions a year and are not making a profit on the model 3 either....

If Tesla manages to pull off self driving from coast to coast by the end of the year, the shares will go even higher.

Not going to happen for so many reasons but to get you started go with the below scenario and explain how you'd pull it off in court:

Your car sees a block ahead and can't break in time to stop and need to evade. Evade left and you kill the driver (cliff drop); evade right and you drive over pedestrians. Which way is the car to evade and how do you defend it morally in court when sued by either A or B for the death? The answer is millions in paid litigation and penalties and forced to stop your autonomous cars from driving.

This will face every single fully autonomous car out there and short of country wide legislation for every scenario writing them free it's not going to be here any time soon on public roads on a large scale (this is beyond the fact of the need to apply for the right to drive on a county by county basis etc. as well).

So many wrongs in one post. Good work

Thargor · 07-06-2017 4:10pm

Is Tesla just going to hit an all time high every day? How high can it go? Even Musk says the SP doesn't make sense.

Steppin Out · 09-06-2017 1:38am

Thargor wrote: »

the day is coming very soon where the ordinary person wont be able to afford the insurance required to drive a manual car on public roads, if they can even find a company still offering it.

What? then I'll start that company and I'll have the monopoly! I'll make a fortune!

People don't want forced to be brainless fools driven around without dignity. That'd go hand in hand with yet higher alzeihmer's rates.

Steppin Out · 09-06-2017 1:47am

b4bmm wrote: »

Peak oil in the next 5 years if this prediction is right. Makes a lot of sense.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/no-one-will-own-a-car-in-the-future-2017-5?r=US&IR=T

I remember hearing some very similar things in the 00s. I even remember the title of a 2004 national geographic being about how all the oil would be gone by... well probably now!

Sabre Man · 14-06-2017 7:48pm

Tesla Model X officially becomes highest safety rated SUV (by significant margin) with 5-star rating in every safety category

https://electrek.co/2017/06/13/tesla-model-x-5-star-safety-rating-nhtsa/

Francie Barrett · 23-06-2017 11:21am

You cannot make up with Musk will say next. Apparently now he's going to create his own music service. Apparently Pandora, Spotify and everyone else has it all wrong.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/tesla-music-streaming-service-report-2017-6?r=US&IR=T

In the real world, the president on the autopilot team has resigned after just 6 months in the job and has been replaced with a 30 year old academic with no business experience.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-chris-lattner-apple-tesla-2017-6?r=US&IR=T

The whole thing is crazy, he just says whatever he wants and the market will lap it up, driving the stock price to ridiculous highs. At what point does he become accountable for all he promises he's made?

KCross · 23-06-2017 12:05pm

Francie Barrett wrote: »

You cannot make up with Musk will say next. Apparently now he's going to create his own music service. Apparently Pandora, Spotify and everyone else has it all wrong.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/tesla-music-streaming-service-report-2017-6?r=US&IR=T

In the real world, the president on the autopilot team has resigned after just 6 months in the job and has been replaced with a 30 year old academic with no business experience.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-chris-lattner-apple-tesla-2017-6?r=US&IR=T

The whole thing is crazy, he just says whatever he wants and the market will lap it up, driving the stock price to ridiculous highs. At what point does he become accountable for all he promises he's made?

I wouldn't read into it too much. He's similar to Michael O'Leary in that he throws out some wild ideas (Tunnel Boring, Mars colonisation etc) to grab headlines. Its cheap marketing is all.

Tesla will rise or fall on the success of Model 3. Thats pretty much all you need to keep your eyes on. The rest is window dressing, imo.

You have to give it to Musk though, he has delivered on the big ticket items so far.... Roadster, Model S & X and Space X!!.... all big, difficult projects. He aint no fool.

b4bmm · 23-06-2017 12:19pm

Can you tell me what he has said that he hasn't done? Disclaimer; no idea about his mars views and find them far fetched but apart from that I talking about.

BTW to the previous poster, he has already trialled his hyperloop i.e the boring company and by all accounts it was a success.

He has just reportedly signed a deal in shanghai to build a gigafactory/manufacturing plant, not official yet and he will announce more of these over the next 6 months. He has had a few trips to Australia recently also so that might be another location along with somewhere in Europe.

He has basically followed through on everything he has said so far. His powerwall 2 are about 3 month waiting list for sale in Australia. The solar roof is backlogged in usa. The Model 3 has 400,000 pre orders. The autonomous driving, going off videos on YouTube seem to be advancing well and passing key regulations in US. Battery costs are dropping rapidly for big storage projects Etc etc etc.

I do agree with the last poster though, The Model 3 rollout is a biggie. They are being super smart about it though. First models off the line will go to employees who won't cause too much dramas if there is issues with the car. Next are to current owners in California and then after that to new purchasers in California so if there is a major issue and a callback needs to happen it can be sorted out relatively quickly before sales start to be made abroad. I don't think any car will be delivered outside Cali in 2017.

Tesla expect 100,000 Model 3 in 2017 and 400,000 in 2018. A reporter visited the Fremont factory and estimated that they would sell approx 80,000 in 2017 and was sceptical of the 400k figure for 2018. So if they can get at least 300-350k over 2017/2018 I think it will be a win. I hope they reach 500k but I think that's overly ambitious.

Regarding the thread title.
Still think PLS on the ASX is a great buy at current levels and now fully funded for construction of project. Raised $USD 100m last couple of weeks along with ~$80m AUD. offtakes with China's biggest lithium player in Gangfeng and Likely to at least double plant size next year once the initial plant has been constructed and is providing cashflow if the demand for product is there, which is highly likely it will be. Other lithium players have had production setbacks not being able to reach expected production due to complicated brine production methods not working out as planned. Australian players leading the way globally. On top of that a processing plant is being built in Perth and due to demand they have already given the green light to double its size from 24,000 T of lithium hydroxide to 48,000 T per annum. Demand is really ramping up.

KCross · 23-06-2017 12:26pm

b4bmm wrote: »

BTW to the previous poster, he has already trialled his hyperloop i.e the boring company and by all accounts it was a success.

Correct me if Im wrong but the hyper loop and the boring company are different projects. The boring thing is where he is going to bore under cities and you drive your car onto a pod and it takes you to your destination.... not trialled at all yet... just a mad idea in his head but he does actually have a few people looking at it and seeing whats possible. He describes it himself as just a hobby but who knows where it will lead to.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5V_VzRrSBI

b4bmm · 23-06-2017 12:37pm

You could be right.
I thought they were the same thing.
I was talking about the boring of the tunnels. They are trialling it at the space x factory but haven't started yet. Supposedly there was a big drill spooted onsite there recently though.

Also they are revealing the tesla electric truck in September.

Thargor · 24-06-2017 8:12pm

b4bmm wrote: »

Regarding the thread title.
Still think PLS on the ASX is a great buy at current levels and now fully funded for construction of project. Raised $USD 100m last couple of weeks along with ~$80m AUD. offtakes with China's biggest lithium player in Gangfeng and Likely to at least double plant size next year once the initial plant has been constructed and is providing cashflow if the demand for product is there, which is highly likely it will be. Other lithium players have had production setbacks not being able to reach expected production due to complicated brine production methods not working out as planned. Australian players leading the way globally. On top of that a processing plant is being built in Perth and due to demand they have already given the green light to double its size from 24,000 T of lithium hydroxide to 48,000 T per annum. Demand is really ramping up.

Thats a very interesting looking company with this project and I was thinking about getting some lithium exposure:

https://www.businessnews.com.au/article/Pilgangoora-go-ahead-imminent-after-new-A-80m-cap-raise

Do you currently hold? Im tempted to take a punt now, company fundamentals not the best shape though but at least this looks funded.

b4bmm · 25-06-2017 4:49am

Yes I hold.
Will look to increase my holding.

Why do you say the fundamentals are not the best? I can't think of a company with better fundamentals going forward TBH.

FernandoTorres · 25-06-2017 6:11am

I think PLS is a bargain at current prices. The lithium co's have fallen out of fashion recently due to lack of major announcements but in the background pretty much everything you read points to supply shortages for the next 4 or 5 years. PLS is fully funded, has deals to supply major producers and even the very conservative estimates point to a huge payoff. It was trading at 80c a while back before they had any funding or offtake agreements. There are plenty of pretenders in the lithium industry and a lot of them will come to nothing but I really think PLS is the real deal. I think most companies would rather deal with an Aussie company than volatile countries like Argentina, Bolivia, Congo etc. Obviously there are no certainties in the mining game though.

b4bmm · 25-06-2017 7:37am

All you say is correct.
I'll add that the funding was done and completed - bond- and you can be sure the due diligence was carried out by these folks before handing over the cash.

Forst phase is to have a 2Mtpa plant but given the structure of the current funding, interest only repayments for first three years, it highly likely once phase one is up and running, meaning no major dramas with commission, then the plant size will be doubled with construction starting towards end of next year and (don't quote me on this) a modest capex of $80m to double plant size which will be funded from free cash flow.

If demand is high, which all my research says it will be over the next 10 years, they can increase plant size to 8Mtpa given the size of the resource.

I fully expect PLS to be one of the global leaders in lithium mining over the next 2-4 years.

Francie Barrett · 25-06-2017 8:34am

b4bmm wrote: »

Can you tell me what he has said that he hasn't done? Disclaimer; no idea about his mars views and find them far fetched but apart from that I talking about.

BTW to the previous poster, he has already trialled his hyperloop i.e the boring company and by all accounts it was a success.

He has just reportedly signed a deal in shanghai to build a gigafactory/manufacturing plant, not official yet and he will announce more of these over the next 6 months. He has had a few trips to Australia recently also so that might be another location along with somewhere in Europe.

He has basically followed through on everything he has said so far. His powerwall 2 are about 3 month waiting list for sale in Australia. The solar roof is backlogged in usa. The Model 3 has 400,000 pre orders. The autonomous driving, going off videos on YouTube seem to be advancing well and passing key regulations in US. Battery costs are dropping rapidly for big storage projects Etc etc etc.

I do agree with the last poster though, The Model 3 rollout is a biggie. They are being super smart about it though. First models off the line will go to employees who won't cause too much dramas if there is issues with the car. Next are to current owners in California and then after that to new purchasers in California so if there is a major issue and a callback needs to happen it can be sorted out relatively quickly before sales start to be made abroad. I don't think any car will be delivered outside Cali in 2017.

Tesla expect 100,000 Model 3 in 2017 and 400,000 in 2018. A reporter visited the Fremont factory and estimated that they would sell approx 80,000 in 2017 and was sceptical of the 400k figure for 2018. So if they can get at least 300-350k over 2017/2018 I think it will be a win. I hope they reach 500k but I think that's overly ambitious.

Regarding the thread title.
Still think PLS on the ASX is a great buy at current levels and now fully funded for construction of project. Raised $USD 100m last couple of weeks along with ~$80m AUD. offtakes with China's biggest lithium player in Gangfeng and Likely to at least double plant size next year once the initial plant has been constructed and is providing cashflow if the demand for product is there, which is highly likely it will be. Other lithium players have had production setbacks not being able to reach expected production due to complicated brine production methods not working out as planned. Australian players leading the way globally. On top of that a processing plant is being built in Perth and due to demand they have already given the green light to double its size from 24,000 T of lithium hydroxide to 48,000 T per annum. Demand is really ramping up.

Uhh, what about the SolarCity factory that was supposed to have been producing last year?

http://buffalonews.com/2017/06/23/750-million-question-solar-panel-jobs/

b4bmm · 25-06-2017 9:00pm

Timelines blow out in all businesses.
PLS is a perfect example of that.
But they are getting it done both of them.
Show me anybody else, at least in the western world who is changing things, I admire that. Sure he may or may not get filthy rich but he is making a difference for the better IMO.

Anything to take a chunk of profits off the corrupt oil/gas baron war mongers is good thing if you ask me. The most corrupt industry on the planet.

Doodee · 25-06-2017 9:56pm

FernandoTorres wrote: »

I think PLS is a bargain at current prices. The lithium co's have fallen out of fashion recently due to lack of major announcements but in the background pretty much everything you read points to supply shortages for the next 4 or 5 years. PLS is fully funded, has deals to supply major producers and even the very conservative estimates point to a huge payoff. It was trading at 80c a while back before they had any funding or offtake agreements. There are plenty of pretenders in the lithium industry and a lot of them will come to nothing but I really think PLS is the real deal. I think most companies would rather deal with an Aussie company than volatile countries like Argentina, Bolivia, Congo etc. Obviously there are no certainties in the mining game though.

What broker are you using for ASX trades?

Thargor · 25-06-2017 10:31pm

b4bmm wrote: »

Yes I hold.
Will look to increase my holding.

Why do you say the fundamentals are not the best? I can't think of a company with better fundamentals going forward TBH.

Yeah Im an idiot sorry I looked at one of those bot sites that analyse shares but its not reporting ASX stuff properly.

FernandoTorres · 27-06-2017 12:18pm

Doodee wrote: »

FernandoTorres wrote: »

I think PLS is a bargain at current prices. The lithium co's have fallen out of fashion recently due to lack of major announcements but in the background pretty much everything you read points to supply shortages for the next 4 or 5 years. PLS is fully funded, has deals to supply major producers and even the very conservative estimates point to a huge payoff. It was trading at 80c a while back before they had any funding or offtake agreements. There are plenty of pretenders in the lithium industry and a lot of them will come to nothing but I really think PLS is the real deal. I think most companies would rather deal with an Aussie company than volatile countries like Argentina, Bolivia, Congo etc. Obviously there are no certainties in the mining game though.

What broker are you using for ASX trades?

I actually live in Melbourne so use an online broker here CMC. Pretty sure you can do it through Degiro at home though.

Roonbox · 27-06-2017 2:23pm

I read an interesting fact on Twitter today.
GM's current market cap equates to $7000 per car sold, while Tesla's market cap equates to $800,000 per car sold!!!

Just thought I'd throw that in here

Tesla/Lithium stocks discussion

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