Tesla/Lithium stocks discussion

Thargor

Im in PLS aswell, was just wondering which thread I spotted it in and when, thanks for the tip. Wish Id gone in heavier now, 20% up. I think Ill buy more if theres any pullback tonight, it feels like a good idea to have a lithium play in the portfolio right now. Anyone looked at Galaxy Resources aswell?

Thargor

I asked this over on Hotcopper earlier aswell but does anyone see any downsides to buying Pilbara on the Frankfurt Borse vs on the ASX? It seems to have plenty of volume anyway.

b4bmm

GXY MC is approx $900M.
They have a second project Sal De Vida. Not sure the status.
I don't know much about it except that I think first production is in 2019 there.
GXY currently produce 33k of concentrate per quarter in Australia.
Personally not a fan of GXY but many are.

TAW are in a similar situation to PLS.

All production accounted for for first 5 years. Will need to raise approx $10M
to be fully funded through to production which won't be an issue and it may come from Tantalum offtakes, I'm hoping so anyway instead of through dilution. First shipment planned for march/april next year.
If they keep to timeline they will be the next Lithium producer globally.

When in production they will produce more than GXY currently produce
and have lots of near term expansion prospects I.e ~25% higher production
At some stage next year along with lots of other options for cost reductions and Reserve upgrade coming month which will likely see the mine life go from 3.6 years to over 10 years and there is a lot more exploration upside. Current MC is $100M.

Extremely tightly held register, top 20 shareholders own 65% of the company
and mangement own a lot of shares too approx 6% of the company.
So as you can see the upside for TAW is considerable.

Note: TAW are in 50% partnership with AMAL on Singapore exchange but my estimtes that the project will produce close to or above 200ktpa concentrate before next year as per recent annoucement so 100ktpa to TAW.

I can see $200M MC before next year is out and I feel that is being conservative.
I'm not an expert so take my advice as my opinion, do your own due diligence.

lucky john

What TSLA did in Florida this weekend was an eye opener for many. When normal cars are sold you get what it says on the tin. Not with a Tesla. The potential to up sell with the flick of a switch years after the original sale was never really accounted for. The waters between Tesla been a car company and a tech company has been muddied again.

Sabre Man

Interesting article about self driving and cameras vs. LIDAR

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4106093-tesla-betting-cameras-full-self-driving

Thargor

Decent announcement for Pilbara after the trading halt last night, glad I didn't try to trade it now, I'm moving a bit of cash to Degiro to try and grab a bit more if it doesn't spike:

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-great-wall-motor-backs-pilgangoora-stage-2-expansion.3718494/

b4bmm

Thargor wrote: »

Decent announcement for Pilbara after the trading halt last night, glad I didn't try to trade it now, I'm moving a bit of cash to Degiro to try and grab a bit more if it doesn't spike:

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-great-wall-motor-backs-pilgangoora-stage-2-expansion.3718494/

PLS will be a global leader for Lithium production over the next few years.
Already as good as locked in expansion from 2MTPA to 5MTPA and it won't be long until that goes to 10MTPA IMO such is the growing demand for Lithium especially from China and the Pilbara/Australia is strategically located to supply that demand.

I'm a bit peeved this annoucement came out so early I have been doing a bit of shuffling to load up some more in the low 50s but may have missed that boat, time will tell.

Still waiting patiently for TAW to get the re-rating they deserve, I would guess by end of next month or start of November latest, here's hoping anyway.

Sabre Man

Poor Model 3 output so far:
http://www.teslarati.com/tesla-produces-260-model-3-delivers-220-q3-citing-production-bottlenecks/

Thargor

b4bmm wrote: »

PLS will be a global leader for Lithium production over the next few years.
Already as good as locked in expansion from 2MTPA to 5MTPA and it won't be long until that goes to 10MTPA IMO such is the growing demand for Lithium especially from China and the Pilbara/Australia is strategically located to supply that demand.

I'm a bit peeved this annoucement came out so early I have been doing a bit of shuffling to load up some more in the low 50s but may have missed that boat, time will tell.

Still waiting patiently for TAW to get the re-rating they deserve, I would guess by end of next month or start of November latest, here's hoping anyway.

PLS and TAW on the march now, I've increased them to 10% of my portfolio since the start of the month, I owe you a pint sometime for those tips (understatement). What are your targets these days? I've sworn not to be greedy and take profits with everything looking so expensive at the minute but I definitely don't see any reason to sell any of the Aussie lithium miners right now...

jon1981

Thargor wrote: »

PLS and TAW on the march now, I've increased them to 10% of my portfolio since the start of the month, I owe you a pint sometime for those tips (understatement). What are your targets these days? I've sworn not to be greedy and take profits with everything looking so expensive at the minute but I definitely don't see any reason to sell any of the Aussie lithium miners right now...

I see them listed on Degiro, but no price data, do you know why that might be?

Thargor

You can trade the ASX no problem on Degiro, set limits etc and they will go through, previous buys have gone through instantly at market open for me, no 20 minute delay, same for sells. They just don't have a live or delayed feed for ASX prices for some reason, a guy on the phone to them told me that they were working on it but that was a year ago now. You just have to watch the prices somewhere else and trade normally, it's off-putting but it does work. I have a big chunk of my PF on the ASX with Degiro and never had an issue.

LG1234

Have I missed the boat with PLS?

Decided to go with TAW when it was 26c a share and now have some spare cash and trying to decide if i should put it into PLS or put more into TAW...

b4bmm

LG1234 wrote: »

Have I missed the boat with PLS?

Decided to go with TAW when it was 26c a share and now have some spare cash and trying to decide if i should put it into PLS or put more into TAW...

You definitely haven't missed the boat with PLS but between the two it's hard to say.
Seems to be a lot of big money coming into Australian Lithium plays.
AJM recently raised 26M and half of that was from Blackrock. I don't hold AJM and don't intend to.

PLS is a less risk play due to the partners they have buying the Lithium and due to how low there costs of production are quoted to be. They are very close to port so transport costs are low. There is still plenty of upside there though 12-18 months. I think this will be a multi billion company over the next couple of years.

TAW has more upside over the next 12-18 months I think.
Galaxy produced around 35ktpa last quarter or around 140ktpa on an annual basis at that production rate. They are currently valued at $1.25B. They also have other projects, how advanced I'm not sure but also have some debt.

Taw owns 50% of the bald hill project and is valued at $135M. TAW expects to be producing 150-155ktpa all going well from March next year debt free (or very small debt <$10M) with that being increased to ~200ktpa by years end. Then by 2019 Likely an additional DMS will be installed from free cash flow and production could be 350-400ktpa.if Lithium and global markets stay performing well I'd be surprised if TAW wasn't worth $500m + when producing 200ktpa considering what galaxy is valued at currently.

All the Lithium players are touting doubling expansions, TAW Have not mentioned this because they are currently drilling and need to increase the resource before they can say they will be expanding production. The market misunderstands TAWs strategy which wasn't to drill as much as possible and then produce it was to drilll enough to get the money needed to fund the plant and keep drilling on the side while the plant is being built. A very smart play IMO but it hasn't hit the headlines because of that. It's really under the radar.

So in summary both great places to put your money TAW more riskier but with more upside depending on your risk tolerance. The biggest risk I can see to the Lithium space being smashed is some global economic event which is ever present. Supply and demand is hard to predict but certainly seems demand is higher than supply given all the Aussie plays saying they will double production given the interest from offtake partners.

Anybody loooking for a tech stock BIG has incredible growth prospects.
I used to hold but sold out now. Think it could go well over the next couple of months but unfortunately I'm out of cash for now.

Disclosure: TAW is my biggest position.

jon1981

Thargor wrote: »

You can trade the ASX no problem on Degiro, set limits etc and they will go through, previous buys have gone through instantly at market open for me, no 20 minute delay, same for sells. They just don't have a live or delayed feed for ASX prices for some reason, a guy on the phone to them told me that they were working on it but that was a year ago now. You just have to watch the prices somewhere else and trade normally, it's off-putting but it does work. I have a big chunk of my PF on the ASX with Degiro and never had an issue.

Thanks, I never realised you could do that.

Thargor

Good week for PLS, charging ahead now.

Sabre Man

Tesla – The automaker will slash orders for model 3 parts from Taiwanese supplier Hota, according to media reports in that country, as it deals with production bottlenecks.

Bought at 325.

Thargor

You bought on that news? They really don't look like they're in a good position right now, Model 3 being hand built in the low 100s etc.

Sabre Man

Thargor wrote: »

You bought on that news? They really don't look like they're in a good position right now, Model 3 being hand built in the low 100s etc.

I actually bought before the news broke. If the price falls further I will buy more.

I know production is slow at the moment due to supplier issues (and possibly other issues) but I expect those issues to be resolved in time.

Model 3 isn't being hand built. Elon tweeted a production video.

Has anyone tried to calculate how much Tesla will profit from battery installations in Australia and Puerto Rico?

In 3 weeks Tesla will unveil the semi. Exciting times ahead.

Also long ALB.

Sabre Man

First In-Depth look at the Tesla Model 3 | Model 3 Owners Club
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_DT0vDMWsq4

b4bmm

Hopefully some of you guys got onboard with PLS and TAW.
PLS up well over 100% since I tipped it here and TAW 60% or so.
Both have lots more to go over the next couple years.

b4bmm

https://thewest.com.au/business/mining/tianqi-backs-wa-with-300m-kwinana-lithium-expansion-ng-b88641905z

https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/energy-investing/lithium-investing/sam-jaffe-lithium-ion-next-10-years/

https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/energy-investing/lithium-investing/ken-brinsden-pilbara-minerals-lithium-offtake-deals/

Thargor

b4bmm wrote: »

Hopefully some of you guys got onboard with PLS and TAW.
PLS up well over 100% since I tipped it here and TAW 60% or so.
Both have lots more to go over the next couple years.

I did, I cant remember if it was you or Preztach (sp?) that I got the original tip from but you both highlighted them to me and I went for them so thanks a million for that, a lot more than I usually do especially on junior resource companies but I literally could not find a reason not to invest in them, there simply isnt enough lithium being produced or coming on stream to meet demand and that demand is going to skyrocket over the next couple of years.

Im up about 70% in PLS and and 45% in TAW. Both of them signed supply deals with major Chinese car manufacturers a few weeks after taking a position in both, its a risk but it really does feel like the right place at the right time. Both companies funded to production aswell as the icing on the cake, you're usually waiting for the dilution to start especially with small Aussie miners and petroleum companies.

Still a big risk so DYOR though.

ct5amr2ig1nfhp

Yep, thanks guys for the tip on PLS and TAW!

lucky john

Had a test drive in both the S and the X today. Unreal cars. Ludicrous mode...wow.

Results tonight will be interesting but even if M3 numbers are poor it does't matter. Any production problems will be fixed and these cars will sell as fast as they can produce them for years to come.

OwlsZat

Today's announcement will be interesting. There are rumblings that production has somewhat ramped up, and that recent delays were down to Panasonic running of the Gigafactory.

OwlsZat

Today's announcement will be interesting. There are rumblings that production has somewhat ramped up, and that recent delays were down to Panasonic running of the Gigafactory.

Bitcoin

Looks like Tesla have missed earnings expectations thanks to model 3 delays and suppliers screwing them over. Shorters will have a field day for the next week but I expect to use this as a great buying opportunity to recycle some of my oversized Bitcoin position profits into. As Mr Buffett says, buy when others are fearful.

lucky john

Not really a big surprise. Musk just jumped the gun on production scale up. GF1 is still on manual mode but automation of production is not far off. Tesla Factory production bots are only running at 10% with a lot of adjustments and hand finishing still going on. Q3 numbers had to be bad. They have a factory full of parts, part built cars, expensive idle equipment and way too many employees all stuck in a bottle neck. It could be H118 before any meaningful M3's start to roll out. When that does happen though it changes everything.

hard to see where the share price will end up in the mean time. It's a battle between the fans and the shorters but the shorters have the most ammunition for now. Under €300 could bring out a lot more interest from investors sitting on their hands hoping for a pull back like this.

OwlsZat

Firstly, not sure about the bundling of Lithium stocks and Tesla discussion. Couldn't be more different. Let's bundle semi conductors and Apple next....
Alas, lots of discussion on Lithium prospecting, anyone tracking any good Cobalt stocks?

Thargor

OwlsZat wrote: »

Firstly, not sure about the bundling of Lithium stocks and Tesla discussion. Couldn't be more different. Let's bundle semi conductors and Apple next....
Alas, lots of discussion on Lithium prospecting, anyone tracking any good Cobalt stocks?

Agree with all that and was also thinking about Cobalt if the ship hasn't sailed yet.