Tesla/Lithium stocks discussion

jackbhoy

Macquarie and Paragon have also called lithium players such as PLS their best short tips this year in Aus media so that probably added to the spooking.

Edit: checked today's ASX short table and PLS is currently 58% short sold. Someone is making decent bets against them (again).
http://www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt


I'd probably take profit in KDR if it gets above $2 again. Hold a few small others including TAW and AVZ which I think will have good bit more to give if their operations go well and start shipping in next couple of months. There was amazing value in this space on ASX over last 12 months but it's become quite expensive, in the last couple of months especially. Too much growth being priced into fairly average and highly risky companies imho.

Sabre Man

Only 6.5 million shortable TSLA shares left.

https://www.investopedia.com/news/tesla-shorts-may-soon-lose-their-attractiveness-s3-partners/?utm_source=news-to-use&utm_campaign=www.investopedia.com&utm_term=13130419&utm_content=05/07/2018&utm_medium=email

I think a squeeze is coming.

b4bmm

If you want leadership you don’t have to look any further than Tesla. Musk just bought $10M Tesla shares. After all his talk of a huge short squeeze coming, this will really **** with shorters heads. Hahaha.

It’s probably as much a publicity stunt and a middle finger to Wall Street as anything.

https://electrek.co/2018/05/07/elon-musk-buys-tesla-tsla-stock-short-squeeze/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

OwlsZat

Musk is gas. He majorly missed the mark on his max robotics angle but if they can increase ramp speed still plenty back orders to fill.

Sabre Man

Tesla will be buying lithium from Kidman Resources Limited, which has a 50/50 joint venture arrangement with Chilean SQM.

https://electrek.co/2018/05/17/tesla-secures-dea-lithium-australia/

Sabre Man

Tesla shorts have ‘about 3 weeks before their position explodes’, says Elon Musk
https://electrek.co/2018/06/17/tesla-tsla-shorts-position-explodes-elon-musk/

b4bmm

Elon is going to make a dick out of every one of them. Tesla will be the biggest company in the world by 2025-2030

el diablo

b4bmm wrote: »

Elon is going to make a dick out of every one of them. Tesla will be the biggest company in the world by 2025-2030

They'll more than likely be bankrupt long before that.

el diablo

Especially now that the subsidies and free loans are starting to dry up and other manufacturers are catching up with their electric tech.

Lawrence Solomon: How Tesla’s Elon Musk became the master of fake business
Musk’s genius is primarily in the subsidy-seeking realm. By 2015, U.S. governments alone had given his companies US$5 billion through direct grants, tax breaks, cut-rate loans, tax credits and rebates

The fastest-growing industries over the last two decades have been fake industries, those that thrive despite having few customers willing to buy their products except at fire-sale prices. The fake industries all have the same angel investors — governments — and the same promoter touting their wares — again governments. These fake industries, the brainchild of subsidy entrepreneurs, also tend to be dazzlers, the better to wow their politician backers and the stock market speculators betting on cash flows of government subsidies.

Today’s fake-industry leader is Tesla, the electric car developed by subsidy entrepreneur Elon Musk, who also heads SolarCity and SpaceX, other government darlings. Musk’s genius is primarily in the subsidy-seeking realm — by 2015, U.S. governments alone had given his companies US$5 billion through direct grants, tax breaks, cut-rate loans, cashable environmental credits, tax credits and rebates to buyers of his products. Counting subsidies from Canada and Europe, the government bankroll could be double that. Counting indirect subsidies — such as electric-vehicle-friendly infrastructure — the subsidies soar ever higher.

Speculators who bet on Musk’s ability to continue to get government backing have been well rewarded — Tesla’s stock value has skyrocketed, so much so that its market valuation topped that of BMW this year. Tesla stock is now valued at US$801,000 per car sold in 2016, compared to $26,000 per BMW sold and $5,000 per GM car sold.

The fake industry leader is Tesla


That inflated stock value rests entirely on government subsidies, as seen by what happened last year when Denmark decided to reduce its subsidies. In 2015, Tesla sold 2,738 cars in Denmark; in 2016, after the government said it would be phasing out subsidies, Tesla sold 176 cars, a drop of 94 per cent. Tesla’s car crash was even more pronounced in Hong Kong. After the government there cut its tax break on April 1, Tesla sales plunged from 2,939 in March to zero in April and five in May

The Tesla, in effect, is a beautifully engineered toy for the conspicuous-consumption market, accessible to millionaires but beyond the reach of the commercial market. Neither it nor most other electric vehicles have any place in a competitive, free-market environment. As an indication of how economically injurious these playthings are to society on the whole, the U.K.’s National Grid estimated that Britain would need to increase its peak generating capacity by 50 per cent to meet the government’s plans for electric vehicles, the equivalent of building 10 new nuclear plants.

The driver of the electric-vehicle industry — government fixation on global warming — has spurred even larger fake industries, led by wind turbines and solar photovoltaic cells. Neither they nor the many other anti-carbon inventions such as carbon sequestration plants are in any business sense “real.” The global renewable-energy industry, having squandered trillions of dollars building economically unjustifiable infrastructure, represents the greatest loss of wealth in the history of commerce.

The Tesla, in effect, is a beautifully engineered toy for the conspicuous consumption market


Fake industries have always been with us, but today’s scale is greater by at least an order of magnitude. The previous record holder for wasteful enterprise was the nuclear power industry, which even today, more than a half-century after its launch, still is not viable. Just last month, two heavily subsidized reactors nearly half-built in South Carolina were abandoned after US$9 billion had been spent on their construction, on the realization they would never be able to produce power competitively. Ontario is still paying for the demise of its nuclear industry a quarter-century ago, which bankrupted Ontario Hydro and cost the province its Triple A credit rating.

Fake industries prey on government’s weakness, like Charlie Brown with that football, to never let constant failure stop it from trying to pick winners. An Elon Musk predecessor, Malcolm Bricklin, in the 1970s convinced New Brunswick’s premier to back a sports car with gull-winged doors for export to the U.S. It went bankrupt after producing 2,900 cars. In the 1980s, Philip Sprung, a Calgary subsidy entrepreneur, convinced Newfoundland’s premier to grow cucumbers in a greenhouse for export to the U.S. Two years and $22 million later, it too went bankrupt. In the 1990s, Ballard Power Systems convinced governments to back hydrogen fuel-cell technology. Its stock, which topped US$120 per share in the year 2000 amid hype that it would revolutionize transportation, is now under $3.

Subsidy entrepreneurs like the Musks of the world — often self-deluded true believers — should be distinguished from the Bernie Madoffs, who are fakes within real industries, and who prey primarily and illegally on private investors. The Musks are fakes in fake industries who prey primarily on taxpayers, a time-honoured practice that remains legal.

b4bmm

I suggest people have a read of this.
This is the current state of play, it’s not what your read in mainstream media who sell space to the highest bidder.

Mark my words these shorters will burn, violently.

https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2018/5/29/1767826/-The-War-on-Tesla-Musk-and-the-Fight-for-the-Future

Thargor

el diablo wrote: »

Especially now that the subsidies and free loans are starting to dry up and other manufacturers are catching up with their electric tech.

Not a great article is it? The author seems to have a serious chip on his shoulder. Renewable energy is not a "fake industry" as he claims, that's just a lie, not even the worst oil industry shills bother with that angle anymore.

Likewise SpaceX isn't a fake industry, it's crushed Russia and Boeings offerings and slashed the cost of getting to orbit while making a ton of money like it was designed to do, I assume getting paid for all these launches by the DoD and other government departments counts as a subsidy or handout in that authors mind, very weak attempt anyway.

ct5amr2ig1nfhp

I didn't believe SpaceX were making that much profit (if any at all)? WSJ reported in 2017 that they were making a huge loss. They had some profit in 13/14 due to the NASA contracts. Has something change in the last year?

Thargor

Currently profitable but only by a few million, obviously like Amazon the vast investment into expansion and other developments negates any paper profit, company value has shot up to €25 Billion dollars due to them capturing 65% of the commercial orbital launch market with their superior product and pricing in a few short years with no end in sight though, hardly the actions of a fake company as the author claims.

lucky john

EM has said that Tesla have produced 5000 M3 in a week. Official confirmation possibly today. Going to be another interesting week for TSLA

zpehtsfd

Musk has completely lost his mind. Now he's accusing Journos of bribing ex-employees for insider info. He really needs to stay off twitter and concentrate on hitting targets.

Looks like he cut some corners to reach that 7000 vehicles a week target.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/03/tesla-skipped-a-brake-and-roll-test-in-rush-to-hit-model-3-targets.html?__source=twitter%7Cmain

Sign of desperation. imo

lucky john

zpehtsfd wrote: »

Musk has completely lost his mind. Now he's accusing Journos of bribing ex-employees for insider info. He really needs to stay off twitter and concentrate on hitting targets.

Looks like he cut some corners to reach that 7000 vehicles a week target.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/03/tesla-skipped-a-brake-and-roll-test-in-rush-to-hit-model-3-targets.html?__source=twitter%7Cmain

Sign of desperation. imo

IMO you are incorrect. Musk is engaged in a serious battle with short sellers that are trying to bankrupt TESLA. Jim Chanos and his friends are spreading as much false info as possible to undermine the company in an attempt
to have them starved of cash by having them excluded from the capital markets. That is why the mad ramp is on. that is why 10% of the workers were let go. That is why Musk is calling out shoddy and one sided analysts and journalists. That's why Model Y and the Semi development have been delayed. He is in a race to be cash positive before Chanos and friends win. Chanos has form in this. He tried the same underhand tactics with Fairfax in Canada and got caught out.

Every cars brakes are tested on a track rather then the line for now. No test was skipped. Tesla cars strive to be the safest on the roads. Not only that, when the brakes on the first M3's were found to be not the top spec Tesla solved the problem over night with a simple software update. Before you say "well didn't a Tesla driver die in a accident in California"
Yes. 40,000 Americans die in various cars each year but only one makes front page news.

Sabre Man

Model 3 brake issue explained by CNET. The journalists making a big issue out of it either don't understand it properly or are spreading misinformation wilfully.

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/2018-tesla-model-3-brake-roll-test/

lucky john

Worth reading if you "want" to know what is going on with Musk v Shorts.

https://insideevs.com/tesla-short-sellers-media-crusade/

zpehtsfd

lucky john wrote: »

IMO you are incorrect. Musk is engaged in a serious battle with short sellers that are trying to bankrupt TESLA. Jim Chanos and his friends are spreading as much false info as possible to undermine the company in an attempt
to have them starved of cash by having them excluded from the capital markets. That is why the mad ramp is on. that is why 10% of the workers were let go. That is why Musk is calling out shoddy and one sided analysts and journalists. That's why Model Y and the Semi development have been delayed. He is in a race to be cash positive before Chanos and friends win. Chanos has form in this. He tried the same underhand tactics with Fairfax in Canada and got caught out.

Absolute nonsense. I never in my life heard of a legitimate viable company driven to bankruptcy by short sellers. In fact a lot of companies that blame short sellers for their performance (or lack of) end up on the scrap heap.

Race to be cash positive? There is absolutely no urgency to be cash positive when you have equity leverage like Musk has. The "mad ramp" to produce the 7000 vehicles a week was all Musk's doing and had nothing to do with short sellers. He's an egomaniac and his loyal supporters are now starting to see that he cares more about his credibility then he does creating a viable car manufacturing company (or should i say tech company? :rolleyes:). One minute he's telling the world about his fully automated assembly line then the next he's building cars by hand under a tent. He needs massive production and to be cash flow positive now because WS are getting tired of his nonsense. It's a sign of desperation. imo

Remember Solarcity that Musk and his cousin were up to their eyeballs in stock in. Here's an update:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/11/01/teslas-solarcity-buyout-looking-worse-by-the-day.aspx

How he managed to convince Tesla shareholders to approve that merger was some feat. He said whatever it took and it worked. There is no doubting his genius but the guy is a shyster. imo

zpehtsfd

lucky john wrote: »

Worth reading if you "want" to know what is going on with Musk v Shorts.

https://insideevs.com/tesla-short-sellers-media-crusade/

Solarcity would have been bankrupt within a few months if Musk didn't get his way. The recent article i posted says it all. There was no conspiracy in that case. The guy is either really bad at math or a shyster.

Tesla has benefited massively from this bull market. Will be very interesting to see how it raises money when the capital markets start to tighten.

Sabre Man

Here's a good discussion about Fairfax, Tesla and Chanos.
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/elon-musk-vs-short-sellers.118431/

And a video about Chanos and Tesla
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQGhHAr3oqQ

b4bmm

Sabre Man wrote: »

Here's a good discussion about Fairfax, Tesla and Chanos.
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/elon-musk-vs-short-sellers.118431/

And a video about Chanos and Tesla
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQGhHAr3oqQ

Thats a brilliant read and shows exactly what is really going on out there. Unfortunately Many people would not be aware that something like this is happening and that people would go to these lengths but it happens so its great to be able to read a piece like this backed up by evidence.

Anybody believing all those overtly negative articles about Tesla are buying into these scumbags motives and are essentially lining the pockets of these guys if they end up achieving what they are setting out to do. Dirty rotten scumbag hedge funds/bankers that crippled Ireland for over half a decade and the country is still paying them off.

There is an astronomical amount of money being put to use to see Tesla fail and most of it would likely be coming from the oil/gas, auto industry and banking imo. I really hope Tesla can get some very favourable terms for the China GF and it will go ahead quickly, China is the most dependant country on oil so a continued transition by them away from cars to EVs and renewables will be very beneficial for not only their economy but there national energy security.

drunkmonkey

The bad news is coming thick and fast for Tesla. Conspiracy or are they doomed?

Thargor

Begging for help from the suppliers is not a good look, then again it could be Musk trolling again but I think that would be too much even for him, interesting to see how it plays out now.

drunkmonkey

Head of sales is after jacking it in today as well. Their debt insurance is also going up on default fears.
Not a good run up to earnings.

el diablo

Tesla is going to one of the biggest bankruptcies of all time. :eek:

ted1

el diablo wrote: »

Tesla is going to one of the biggest bankruptcies of all time. :eek:

Ford, GMC and Creslyer only avoided bankruptcy because of s nail out.

The Irish Banks took more money.
Enron was bigger

ted1

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Head of sales is after jacking it in today as well. Their debt insurance is also going up on default fears.
Not a good run up to earnings.

He has been gone since April. It’s just he started a new job today

b4bmm

Negotiating deals with suppliers, shock horror!!

People quitting, shock horror.

Read the REAL news peeps. I don’t believe everything Tesla says but I believe even less of what the media says about them. A recent Pulitzer journalist closed down his twitter account due to the harassment he got after giving the model 3 a test drive review. The vitriol put out by the media, which is all being paid for by someone/many, is disgusting. TBH I’m surprised Elon musk hasn’t “fallen off a cliff” or “been in a car crash” yet. That will be the next thing they will resort to with $15B plus of short positions on the stock.

b4bmm

https://electrek.co/2018/07/24/tesla-troll-short-doxxed-oil-industry-musk-calls-boss/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

“One of Tesla’s biggest anonymous trolls/shorts has been doxxed as an investment manager heavily invested in the oil industry........”

drunkmonkey

b4bmm wrote: »

https://electrek.co/2018/07/24/tesla-troll-short-doxxed-oil-industry-musk-calls-boss/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

“One of Tesla’s biggest anonymous trolls/shorts has been doxxed as an investment manager heavily invested in the oil industry........”

Besides that guy nearly all news is negative, he can't be behind it all, the numbers are horrendous the cash burn is off the charts, hitting production numbers using tents outside isn't sustainable, the news of service woe's is really starting to ramp up, It won't be long before owners launch a class action against them as they can't get their car fixed or had an accident as they fell out the door that magically opens on the freeway.

JP Morgan's target is $180.

b4bmm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

b4bmm wrote: »

https://electrek.co/2018/07/24/tesla-troll-short-doxxed-oil-industry-musk-calls-boss/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

“One of Tesla’s biggest anonymous trolls/shorts has been doxxed as an investment manager heavily invested in the oil industry........”

Besides that guy nearly all news is negative, he can't be behind it all, the numbers are horrendous the cash burn is off the charts, hitting production numbers using tents outside isn't sustainable, the news of service woe's is really starting to ramp up, It won't be long before owners launch a class action against them as they can't get their car fixed or had an accident as they fell out the door that magically opens on the freeway.

JP Morgan's target is $180.

Yes nearly all news is negative and the shorts are making sure of that led by Jim Chanos who is known to resort to any tactics to achieve his Profits.

Tesla most definitely has issues with the servicing in Norway badly needing to be addressing ASAP. As I said most of the issues are hugely overblown, it’s nothing new for a growing company or do people expect everything to fall into place overnight? I think we will start to see a turnaround. The only way the turnaround can happen and to silence the negative media is to start making profits. Maybe from early next year.

I have no position in Tesla and dont plan to take one but I can see what’s happening from vested interests. JP Morgan with a price target of $180 of course they have, show me how many billions they have invested in oil companies, I’m sure it’s tens of billions along with all the other major institutions that have tens of billions, none of them will gain much from Tesla continuing to gain traction and that’s the main reason I want them to succeed because these institutions are totally corrupt.

Mach 3

“The noblest art is that of making others happy” ...

“No one ever made a difference by being like everyone else.” ...

“Nobody ever lost a dollar by underestimating the taste of the American public.” ...

“Unless a man enters upon the vocation intended for him by nature, and best suited to his peculiar genius, he cannot succeed.”


~ P T Barnum


Tis all a Circus lads.

drunkmonkey

b4bmm wrote: »

Yes nearly all news is negative and the shorts are making sure of that led by Jim Chanos who is known to resort to any tactics to achieve his Profits.

Tesla most definitely has issues with the servicing in Norway badly needing to be addressing ASAP. As I said most of the issues are hugely overblown, it’s nothing new for a growing company or do people expect everything to fall into place overnight? I think we will start to see a turnaround. The only way the turnaround can happen and to silence the negative media is to start making profits. Maybe from early next year.

I have no position in Tesla and dont plan to take one but I can see what’s happening from vested interests. JP Morgan with a price target of $180 of course they have, show me how many billions they have invested in oil companies, I’m sure it’s tens of billions along with all the other major institutions that have tens of billions, none of them will gain much from Tesla continuing to gain traction and that’s the main reason I want them to succeed because these institutions are totally corrupt.

The shorts aren't making the negative news Tesla is. It's not just Norway the Yanks aren't having a good time either http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-tesla-parts-service-20180724-story.html
I don't think it's a case of big oil trying to rain on the parade. Tesla is a blip in the general schemes of things. Is it 0.04% of car production yet it's the 4th largest value car manufacturer by market cap. That makes no sense.

b4bmm

No offence mate but you don’t know what you’re talking about. I have large sums of money invested not in Tesla but in the electric vehicle thematic and spend hours everyday trying to absorb as much information as I can.

A simply way to prove my point is how many times has a Tesla caught fire and it wasnt reported by all the main media outlets with huge fear inciting headlines? I would guess never.

How many times do we see huge headlines of a similar nature when an ICE vehicle catches fire, much much less than 1%. The trend of fear is quite obvious and is being promoted by people who have vested interest to see Tesla fail and is nothing more than fear propaganda. To say Tesla is only 0.4% or whatever it is you said means nothing and sounds exactly like a paid for headline. Tesla Model 3 already outsells it’s competitors in California. That is the BMW 3 series, Merc C class and Audi A4.

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.thestreet.com/amp/investing/stocks/tesla-outsold-bmw-mercedes-in-california-in-the-first-quarter-14599367

On the Model S;

“Tesla shocked the industry last year when it confirmed having delivered 25,202 Model S sedans in the U.S. in 2015, which gave the company a 25% market share in the premium sedan market.”

https://electrek.co/2017/05/26/tesls-model-s-leading-us-large-luxury-segment/

To say Tesla is not a threat to these big automakers is absolutely nonsense, it has less than a handlefull of car models out and it is winning and/or taking market share in every segment it sells in.

Read the attached photo about facts relating to my first points about fires. Again nothing more than fear mongering. ICE vechiles are far and away more likely to catch fire than a Tesla.

My other picture attached is a delivery truck that went up in flames, this is a fairly common occurance, I’d be willing to Bet good money nobody on here saw that in the news headlines, maybe it wasn’t even reported in mainstream media but if a tesla truck goes up in flames even during testing it would be on the front of every newspaper in the western world.

Make no mistake about it, all the major carmakers are under serious threat from Tesla and will eventually transition to EVs if they are forced to, the oil companies are under serious threat of the electric vehicle revolution too, that’s exactly what it is, a revolution led by China and Tesla. Btw 280,000 barrel of oil per day have already been displaced through the use of EVs and that will start compounding more and more as EV adoption increases. To put that in perspective the world produces approx 95m bopd and the global oil glut in 2014 that sent oil prices into a spiral for the best part of 4 years was from a 1-2% oversupply which would translate into approx 1-2m bopd so EVs at current and compounding growth trajectories will have a very material impact on oil demand by 2025.

“Every five weeks, Chinese cities add 9,500 of the zero-emissions transporters—the equivalent of London’s entire working fleet, according Bloomberg New Energy Finance.”

And your trying to tell me the Dirtiest and most corrupt business of them all (along with banking) will just stand by and do nothing...........

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-04-23/electric-buses-are-hurting-the-oil-industry

zpehtsfd

b4bmm wrote: »

Yes nearly all news is negative and the shorts are making sure of that led by Jim Chanos who is known to resort to any tactics to achieve his Profits.

Tesla most definitely has issues with the servicing in Norway badly needing to be addressing ASAP. As I said most of the issues are hugely overblown, it’s nothing new for a growing company or do people expect everything to fall into place overnight? I think we will start to see a turnaround. The only way the turnaround can happen and to silence the negative media is to start making profits. Maybe from early next year.

I have no position in Tesla and dont plan to take one but I can see what’s happening from vested interests. JP Morgan with a price target of $180 of course they have, show me how many billions they have invested in oil companies, I’m sure it’s tens of billions along with all the other major institutions that have tens of billions, none of them will gain much from Tesla continuing to gain traction and that’s the main reason I want them to succeed because these institutions are totally corrupt.

Your hatred for the oil industry is clouding your judgement.

Musk has done more damage to the Tesla brand, in the last few weeks, then any short could ever dream. It's clear the guy is winging it and has been for years.

I see you mention JP Morgan but fail to mention the other analysts who came out positive when the supplier news broke. I guess they're not heavily invested in the oil industry. :rolleyes:

It's funny you called Tesla a "growing company" yet it's valued the same as GM right now. If Tesla was valued at $5B you wouldn't have nearly as much media attention. Its valuation is ridiculous and the result of a decade of cheap money that has also driven the stock market parabolic. Fundamentals will matter again soon and stocks like Tesla will be under pressure. GL

Kuva

Why the Future of Tesla May Depend on Knowing What Happened to Billy Durant

https://steveblank.com/2018/04/23/why-the-future-of-tesla-may-depend-on-knowing-what-happened-to-billy-durant/

Tesla will always be, it's Musk that may not be.

b4bmm

No hatred whatsoever I make good money from the oil and gas industry but I can see it for what it is. THe reason Tesla is valued on a totally different stratosphere than other automakers is because it is being valued on Tech company multiples not your century old no growth traditional auto maker valuation. Let’s have a look at how well all these huge longstanding automakers are doing today;

“Ford Motor Company released its financial results for the second quarter of 2018 on Wednesday, stating that it's earnings per share (EPS) stood at $0.27, dropping 88% compared to the same period last year. The company reported a revenue of $38.9 billion in the second three months of the year, down 2% year on year.

The automotive giant stated its net income attributed to the Ford Motor Company for the second quarter of the year was $1.06 billion, declining 92% compared to the same three months of 2017. The firm noted that its F-Series sales remained at record highs in North America, while it also invested in restructuring and remodeling of its operations in order to achieve a greater competitive advantage with approximate restructuring costs expected at $11 billion.”

So plenty of earnings but no growth and capital requirements that would send the media into An absolute frenzy for months if it was released by Tesla. Tech companies start off with low earnings and huge growth. Tesla is a leader in a space that will take over in the next five years, not because they are better at manufacturing simply because they can adapt quicker, people like what they do (helping remote communities with there power needs - Puerto Rico/Samoa/Hawaii etc), They produce great products (as per recent model 3 reviews (after some initial teething issues)) and they are being valued the way they are because of that growth trajectory. They have brand loyalty similar to Apple. The markets they are in are growing faster than any of the traditional auto manufacturers can dream of but they are stuck in the mud, the only other desirable EV is a Jaguar I-pace and it’s a huge price. EV growth and battery growth is insane and will only get faster.

Anyway most people are also stuck in the mud so I’ll quit trying to convince them on here, everyone will use this technology soon enough because the costs and benefits on many levels will be and are undeniable and this is coming from a lifelong petrolhead.

Good luck to all. (Except the oil companies and banks )

lucky john

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Besides that guy nearly all news is negative, he can't be behind it all, the numbers are horrendous the cash burn is off the charts, hitting production numbers using tents outside isn't sustainable, the news of service woe's is really starting to ramp up, It won't be long before owners launch a class action against them as they can't get their car fixed or had an accident as they fell out the door that magically opens on the freeway.

JP Morgan's target is $180.

I'll see your 180 and raise you to 450.

https://electrek.co/2018/07/25/tesla-tsla-stock-surge-deliveries-q3-wall-street-analyst/
As Tesla heads into its Q2 2018 earnings call, the company’s stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) continues to exhibit volatility, though it recently received votes of confidence from its supporters from Wall Street. Together with Baird analyst Ben Kallo, Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, and Consumer Edge Research’s James Albertine, Nomura Instinet analyst Romit Shah also issued a favorable note about Tesla. Shah reiterated the firm’s Buy rating on the electric car maker’s stock, placing a price target of $450.

That tent has a 30 year use guarantee. it's not something you'll find in O'Meara camping. It will serve a purpose and produce thousands of cars.

As for fixing cars, the majority of that can be done remotely with a tesla. Added to that the massive reliability of EC's above ICE and they will find it difficult to gather up enough for a class action (no doubt they will try though).

lucky john

zpehtsfd wrote: »

"It's clear the guy is winging it and has been for years".

Really?
https://www.statista.com/chart/13435/tesla-vehicle-production/

Really?
https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/07/as-dominance-of-launch-market-looms-spacex-now-valued-at-21-billion/

Just go to the graph in both cases.

https://www.theverge.com/2018/6/13/17462496/elon-musk-boring-company-approved-tunnel-chicago

https://electrek.co/2018/02/04/tesla-powerwall-solar-virtual-power-plant/

https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/11/28/16709036/elon-musk-biggest-battery-100-days

Lets hope he continues to winging it for many years to come.:rolleyes:

drunkmonkey

Funny enough i've never read a piece on software faults it's all mechanical i'm hearing about.
Come on in fairness you can't say the tent is the way forward the cars built manually there are going to have heaps of service problems.
They've only temporary planning for the tent, they certainly won't be allowed keep it there 30 years, there has to be a worker revolt on the way, no a/c or heating, it doesn't even have a fire system.
They need $450 a share, think there all out of options but to pump the hell out of the price. The cult or Elon will probably load up before it gets to $1000, it's just bonkers but funny to watch him wing it so well.

kenyard

elon himself stuck another 400m into stock of tesla.. he is negotiating his wage in shares.. he sees this going one direction longterm or he would be taking cash... yes he is bullish and stupidly headstrong but i dont see him letting tesla die...
you are citing workers conditions etc... amazon has people pissing in bottles... apple gets their parts from china where people commit suicide daily working in conditions in factories. many major companies or suppliers have horrible horrible work conditions when you delve into them. if he goes and pays insane money they go broke faster. its not feasible for them at the moment.
i do agree to them getting way too much stick. but at the same time elon is drawing on trolls with his twitter rants.
im interested to see where tesla go. to me they are ridiculously overvalued currently... because people believe they will be worth it longterm. the issue is they aren't now. theyre out of cash. they made the roadster, truck... but they cant even start producing them as they have no cash... he needs to hit 7,500 model 3's before they will have a bit of investing cash again.. and even when that starts happening he will have to consider supplying the 35k models people have on order which as he said himself currently arent profitable (and within 1-2 years surely will have bare profits if even in my opinion). i have no idea where this stock is going to go... i think the range of 250 - 380 for the foreseeable future with each bit of news.
my major concern would be that any other major automaker takes 2 of their manufacturing lines and retrofits to make evehicles... it crushes teslas market share which they are somewhat the leader in now. tesla could longterm end up being a supplier of electric engines only even.
im sure they already have everything to make hugely cost effective cars. tesla is in early days with costs higher than expected etc etc.. once other car maker comes in with existing know how it will destroy tesla in my opinion.

lucky john

"and even when that starts happening he will have to consider supplying the 35k models people have on order which as he said himself currently arent profitable (and within 1-2 years surely will have bare profits if even in my opinion)."

@kenyard https://insideevs.com/munro-tesla-model-3-profitable/

zpehtsfd

b4bmm wrote: »

No hatred whatsoever I make good money from the oil and gas industry but I can see it for what it is. THe reason Tesla is valued on a totally different stratosphere than other automakers is because it is being valued on Tech company multiples not your century old no growth traditional auto maker valuation. Let’s have a look at how well all these huge longstanding automakers are doing today;

“Ford Motor Company released its financial results for the second quarter of 2018 on Wednesday, stating that it's earnings per share (EPS) stood at $0.27, dropping 88% compared to the same period last year. The company reported a revenue of $38.9 billion in the second three months of the year, down 2% year on year.

The automotive giant stated its net income attributed to the Ford Motor Company for the second quarter of the year was $1.06 billion, declining 92% compared to the same three months of 2017. The firm noted that its F-Series sales remained at record highs in North America, while it also invested in restructuring and remodeling of its operations in order to achieve a greater competitive advantage with approximate restructuring costs expected at $11 billion.”

So plenty of earnings but no growth and capital requirements that would send the media into An absolute frenzy for months if it was released by Tesla. Tech companies start off with low earnings and huge growth. Tesla is a leader in a space that will take over in the next five years, not because they are better at manufacturing simply because they can adapt quicker, people like what they do (helping remote communities with there power needs - Puerto Rico/Samoa/Hawaii etc), They produce great products (as per recent model 3 reviews (after some initial teething issues)) and they are being valued the way they are because of that growth trajectory. They have brand loyalty similar to Apple. The markets they are in are growing faster than any of the traditional auto manufacturers can dream of but they are stuck in the mud, the only other desirable EV is a Jaguar I-pace and it’s a huge price. EV growth and battery growth is insane and will only get faster.

Anyway most people are also stuck in the mud so I’ll quit trying to convince them on here, everyone will use this technology soon enough because the costs and benefits on many levels will be and are undeniable and this is coming from a lifelong petrolhead.

Good luck to all. (Except the oil companies and banks )

How long have you been investing? I'm old enough to remember investing during the dotcom crash when every internet company with a web presence was valued on a "Tech company multiple". It wasn't justified for many then just like it isn't now. That century old no growth traditional auto maker Ford pays an decent dividend yield by the way.

What do you mean adapt quicker? We're talking about building cars here. This is not a phone manufacturer looking to release the next best mobile. Then again the cult followers would have you believe that Tesla is the Apple of the car industry and everyone will want one. I can see it now with owners changing their cars every year for the next best upgrade. Imagine the Model 3v10? :rolleyes:

So we're all stuck in the mud cause we just don't understand the revolution that is happening in the car industry? How very presumptuous of you. Some of us know exactly what is happening but we also believe Tesla is not going to grow exponentially. The company is a shambles. imo.

zpehtsfd

kenyard wrote: »

my major concern would be that any other major automaker takes 2 of their manufacturing lines and retrofits to make evehicles... it crushes teslas market share which they are somewhat the leader in now. tesla could longterm end up being a supplier of electric engines only even.
im sure they already have everything to make hugely cost effective cars. tesla is in early days with costs higher than expected etc etc.. once other car maker comes in with existing know how it will destroy tesla in my opinion.

EXACTLY!!!!!! People think a niche following that Tesla have right now will compete with the Big 3, who have the capabilities and brand recognition to crush Tesla whenever they wish. It's that simple.

lucky john

@zpehtsfd.

Whats Fords plans for EVs today? Where will they or others be producing the batteries? How many batteries will they need to produce 1000 cars? How's there super charger network doing? Do they even have plans for one? Where have they sourced the raw materials for the batteries? Whats the actual market for EVs? Is it flat? When Tesla sell the 400,000 plus on order is that the market? Thats $16,000,000,000 by the way. Is that a niche? What % of cars will be EVs in 5 or 10 or 15 years? How long will it take ALL EV production to meet demand? When Ford started producing cars did the smart money reckon that the Japanese would wipe them out or did they think the horse and carriage would continue to hold the road.

Like it or not electric cars are coming. So is Tesla.

drunkmonkey

lucky john wrote: »

@zpehtsfd.

Whats Fords plans for EVs today? Where will they or others be producing the batteries? How many batteries will they need to produce 1000 cars? How's there super charger network doing? Do they even have plans for one? Where have they sourced the raw materials for the batteries? Whats the actual market for EVs? Is it flat? When Tesla sell the 400,000 plus on order is that the market? Thats $16,000,000,000 by the way. Is that a niche? What % of cars will be EVs in 5 or 10 or 15 years? How long will it take ALL EV production to meet demand? When Ford started producing cars did the smart money reckon that the Japanese would wipe them out or did they think the horse and carriage would continue to hold the road.

Like it or not electric cars are coming. So is Tesla.

It's a a bonkers valuation, it's got first mover advantage in the EV space which is still a niche. The combustion engine has a long way to go, when Tela sell their first 400,000 in a year they'll still only be doing a 1/4 of the numbers of Mazda.
How long before Tesla is bigger than Mazda?
Mazda have a market cap of 7.8 Billion and Tesla is 50 billion. One is hard business relaity the other is based on some hopes and dresms. I'd question buying into Tesla at $4 right now.

Sabre Man

zpehtsfd wrote: »

EXACTLY!!!!!! People think a niche following that Tesla have right now will compete with the Big 3, who have the capabilities and brand recognition to crush Tesla whenever they wish. It's that simple.

Not so simple apparently. Workers having to help finance the factory? Imagine the articles that would have been written if Tesla had gone down this route.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-rival-porsche-taycan-production-hell/

drunkmonkey

Sabre Man wrote: »

Not so simple apparently. Workers having to help finance the factory? Imagine the articles that would have been written if Tesla had gone down this route.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-rival-porsche-taycan-production-hell/

This is Porsche they've just agreed a wage freeze to finance build out, you can be sure there'll be rewarded handsomely when the cap lifts. It's some testemant to the pride employees take in working there. Not sure the chaps in tents would be so enthusiastic.

Fair play to Porsche they didn't come tap the markets or banks and hurt share holders. Let's see what Elon does when he hasn't the 460 share price he needs that could cost him a billion+ in November.

b4bmm

What’s that smell?

It’s tesla shorts burning because they are up 16%.
The shareholders must be really hurting right now eh.
Wait a minute I thought they were overvalued.

Keep reading and swallowing the garbage if you want.
They will eventually be the biggest company globally.
The other auto makers are at least 5 years behind, when Tesla start to build the next gigafactory or two only then will the penny drop for other automakers how far they are behind in the whole supply chain.