new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

whiskeyman · 24-01-2020 9:48pm

Gringo180 wrote: »

What is the big deal about this virus? 80 thousand people die a year from the flu. This wont kill even 8 thousand people a year.

It's hiding something or makes good news instead of something.

I heard someone say the key indicator if the world should be worried is check the markets.
All are not fearful so something else is at play.

Gringo180 · 24-01-2020 9:55pm

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

See any of the previous pages.

This is a novel virus (has no vaccine, immunity or cure) and it's full effects are not know, it may also mutate, estimated to have 70%+ similar genome sequence to the early-2000 breakout known as SARS-CoV.
Not enough is known about the epidemiology of 2019-nCoV to draw definitive conclusions about the full clinical features of disease.

Seasonal flu kills about 0.1%, this one is around the 2.0% mark (so far) still that 's much lower than MERS/SARS, but 2% is the same rate as the 1918 Spanish Flu.

Spanish Flu mortality rate was much higher than 2% more like 10-20%

igCorcaigh · 24-01-2020 10:10pm

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

See any of the previous pages.

This is a novel virus (has no vaccine, immunity or cure) and it's full effects are not know, it may also mutate, estimated to have 70%+ similar genome sequence to the early-2000 breakout known as SARS-CoV.
Not enough is known about the epidemiology of 2019-nCoV to draw definitive conclusions about the full clinical features of disease.

Seasonal flu kills about 0.1%, this one is around the 2.0% mark (so far) still that 's much lower than MERS/SARS, but 2% is the same rate as the 1918 Spanish Flu.

The CFR of this could be higher. There is a fairly long incubation period, and it takes time for cases to resolve. This is only the first month, but CFR estimates are tracking that of SARS.

This does not seem as infectious as flu though, I've seen R0 estimates of about 2 to 3, which itself is cause for concern.

We will have to wait to see if sustained H2H transmission occurs outside China.

But, whatever we are seeing now, is only a snapshot of the disease spread one or two weeks ago.

Duke of Url · 24-01-2020 10:13pm

I would suspect 10s of thousands or 100s of thousands of people have contracted Coronavirus if cases are showing up in France and the US.

I would also suspect that these people are treating it as a seasonal flu.

igCorcaigh · 24-01-2020 10:16pm

Duke of Url wrote: »

I would suspect 10s of thousands or 100s of thousands of people have contracted Coronavirus if cases are showing up in France and the US.

I would also suspect that these people are treating it as a seasonal flu.

Lot of mild cases that do not present, yes seems so.

That's good news for CFR but bad for R0/transmission.

Wibbs · 24-01-2020 10:18pm

Gringo180 wrote: »

Spanish Flu mortality rate was much higher than 2% more like 10-20%

That's more what I understood too G. I remember my grandmother telling me of that dose. She helped lay out the bodies of the dead on her street. She would have been 20-21. She got it, but for her it was a couple of days of fever and then Ok, but she remembered being tired for months after. For others it was vicious and they died within a few days of a terrible fever.

4068ac1elhodqr · 24-01-2020 10:36pm

Gringo180 wrote: »

Spanish Flu mortality rate was much higher than 2% more like 10-20%

It was very low for initial comparable wave in early 1918.

Later that year, in Winter a 2nd wave was more lethal, mainly caused by poor conditions that favored the spread of a new deadlier strain.
Those with severe cases were often crowded together in hospitals and camps, increasing transmission of a more lethal form of the virus. Millions of troops in very harsh conditions may well have exaggerated the 2nd wave figures.
Isolation and basic treatment or modern hygene practices were simply not available.

Thankfully by the 3rd final wave, the rapidly mutating virus likely evolved over time, into less lethal strains (a jab didn't ever become available back then). This is predicted by models of natural selection. Because highly lethal strains kill their host rapidly, so they cannot spread as easily as less lethal strains.

Perhaps 2-5% might be a more realistic figure (when directly comparing conditions) from then to now.

Duke of Url · 24-01-2020 10:40pm

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

It was very low for initial comparable wave in early 1918.

Later that year, in Winter a 2nd wave was more lethal, mainly caused by poor conditions that favored the spread of a new deadlier strain.
Those with severe cases were often crowded together in hospitals and camps, increasing transmission of a more lethal form of the virus. Millions of troops in very harsh conditions may well have exaggerated the 2nd wave figures.
Isolation and basic treatment or modern hygene practices were simply not available.

Thankfully by the 3rd final wave, the rapidly mutating virus likely evolved over time, into less lethal strains (a jab didn't ever become available back then). This is predicted by models of natural selection. Because highly lethal strains kill their host rapidly, so they cannot spread as easily as less lethal strains.

Perhaps 2-5% might be a more realistic figure (when directly comparing conditions) from then to now.

Source?..... Just kidding

I’m actually interested in reading up on the Spanish flu. Any good links about the history of Spanish flu?

4068ac1elhodqr · 24-01-2020 10:44pm

Duke of Url wrote: »

Source?..... Just kidding
I’m actually interested in reading up on the Spanish flu. Any good links about the history of Spanish flu?

Guess the difficulty would be comparing a like-for-like flu with very, very different conditions, and a world war underway. They also had nothing for treating secondary bacterial infections of flu.
China is a total world away from where it was 20yrs ago, today they're creating a large modular hospital in 10days which is outstanding work.

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/ten-myths-about-1918-flu-pandemic-180967810/

4068ac1elhodqr · 24-01-2020 10:50pm

Let's hope there isn't 'mutation waves' of this current one (hence the importance of isolation of a Novel virus).
There always is in the movies, usually with flashing red dots on a world map, and bunch of suits around a big table.

fritzelly · 24-01-2020 11:04pm

In four days the number of confirmed cases (believing the Chinese) has gone from 200 to 1000
I highly doubt the 1000 is anywhere near the real number as most people will just sweat it out.

Quantum Erasure · 24-01-2020 11:04pm

941 confirmed cases, 26 dead

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

griffin100 · 24-01-2020 11:10pm

China is building a new 1,000 bed hospital to deal with the outbreak in a matter of a few days.

https://m.facebook.com/cbcnews/videos/2463130930681899/

https://news.sky.com/video/wuhan-builds-hospital-in-response-to-pneumonia-viral-11916280

Wounder how much that’s costing them?

rafatoni · 24-01-2020 11:16pm

griffin100 wrote: »

China is building a new 1,000 bed hospital to deal with the outbreak in a matter of a few days.

https://m.facebook.com/cbcnews/videos/2463130930681899/

https://news.sky.com/video/wuhan-builds-hospital-in-response-to-pneumonia-viral-11916280

Wounder how much that’s costing them?

Not 2.4 billion anyway, you can stick your money on that.

ChikiChiki · 24-01-2020 11:24pm

griffin100 wrote: »

China is building a new 1,000 bed hospital to deal with the outbreak in a matter of a few days.

https://m.facebook.com/cbcnews/videos/2463130930681899/

https://news.sky.com/video/wuhan-builds-hospital-in-response-to-pneumonia-viral-11916280

Wounder how much that’s costing them?

They've been known build metros and subways in under a year.

igCorcaigh · 24-01-2020 11:31pm

It's amazing what a state can do with low cost labour and lax health and safety laws.

Duke of Url · 24-01-2020 11:40pm

griffin100 wrote: »

China is building a new 1,000 bed hospital to deal with the outbreak in a matter of a few days.

https://m.facebook.com/cbcnews/videos/2463130930681899/

https://news.sky.com/video/wuhan-builds-hospital-in-response-to-pneumonia-viral-11916280

Wounder how much that’s costing them?

Not much, they did it before in 2003 for the SARS outbreak in a week and seem to be using the same idea

In 2003 China erected a hospital on Beijing's rural outskirts in barely a week to cater to a rapidly rising number of patients suffering from SARS, or Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, which killed 349 people in mainland China and 299 in Hong Kong in 2002-2003.

Xiaotangshan Hospital consisted of prefabricated structures and Xinhua reported that Wuhan was building the new facility based on the same model.

Duke of Url · 24-01-2020 11:42pm

igCorcaigh wrote: »

It's amazing what a state can do with low cost labour and lax health and safety laws.

It’s amazing what you can’t get done in Ireland with extremely high cost labour.

creditcarder · 24-01-2020 11:45pm

whiskeyman wrote: »

It's hiding something or makes good news instead of something.

I heard someone say the key indicator if the world should be worried is check the markets.
All are not fearful so something else is at play.

Yeah, I try and avoid conspiracy theories, but there is something else going on here. I'm not sure what tbh, but the strangeness is not the disease itself but how much it is being talked about when there are more serious issues (Australia being one of them, Brexit another, and the whole Uighir thing)

creditcarder · 24-01-2020 11:46pm

rafatoni wrote: »

Not 2.4 billion anyway, you can stick your money on that.

Man, that is a kick in the theet with the whole red envelope culture in China. You are absolutely correct, but fudge me.

AllForIt · 25-01-2020 12:32am

...can we suspend climate change activism until we've sorted this out?

fritzelly · 25-01-2020 12:33am

AllForIt wrote: »

...can we suspend climate change activism until we've sorted this out?

Didn't you hear - climate change caused this because "insert ludicrous excuses"

ceadaoin. · 25-01-2020 1:18am

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

There is still so many unknowns, but it looks like anyone in a high risk area, is not only gonna have to buy the 3M (type N95) facemasks,
but they'll also now need swimmers (sealed) eye goggles:

A top medic who contracted Coronavirus says the deadly respiratory disease is so contagious it can be transmitted through the eyes.
He says he developed conjunctivitis in his left eye after returning to Beijing and around three hours later he began had a fever and severe catarrh.

Yeah viruses can always enter the body through your eyes via infected hands. That's why you're supposed to avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth if you dont want to get sick. I highly doubt this virus spontaneously appeared in his eye from the air. More hysteria.

1800_Ladladlad · 25-01-2020 1:20am

Couldn't stop laughing at this

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wakka12 · 25-01-2020 2:41am

Over 1,200 confirmed cases in China now with 41 deaths
And just today, 1200 new suspected cases of the virus. Sounds like it will be very hard to stop this going to pandemic level in China
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/china-coronavirus-outbreak-latest-updates-200123133559818.html

fritzelly · 25-01-2020 2:47am

That's a big jump in a day, only going to get far worse
Not just old people, healthy young fella has died as well

LaFuton · 25-01-2020 4:57am

this, the plague of locusts in africa, giant black smoke rings in the sky, eruptions and fires... jesus its a bit biblical

EDIT france confirms 3 cases in eu

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1220918160850853889?s=20

igCorcaigh · 25-01-2020 5:40am

Great start to the new decade anyway.

That's a big jump in the death toll. Very sad.

Hoping not to see any sustained H2H outside China.

Follow the excellent Helen Branswell for news.

https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1220929215111090176?s=19

There is also Dr Henry Niman on recombinomics.co but he's a bit alarmist and fringe. Still, he gives audio updates each day. Difficult to listen to and not a great communicator.

Flu trackers Forum can be a bit panicky too. Americans with their prepping.

igCorcaigh · 25-01-2020 5:50am

Most of the clusters seem to be in families, i.e. Close contact.

No sign of sustained spread of the virus outside Hubei.

Of course, this is a snapshot of 1 or 2 weeks ago, given the incubation period. For now, this is a localised problem for a region in China.

igCorcaigh · 25-01-2020 6:06am

"Around one-in-four cases are thought to be severe." BBC

This is going to put a lot of pressure on our health resources.

We already have overcrowding in our hospitals and long A&E waiting times.

igCorcaigh · 25-01-2020 6:16am

https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1220929215111090176?s=09

igCorcaigh · 25-01-2020 6:20am

35 discharges from hospital but 41 deaths in Wuhan is concerning for the CFR estimates.

Kermit.de.frog · 25-01-2020 8:16am

Chairman Mao. The Chairman of the Communist Party of China. One of the biggest communist parties in the world, and in my view, the best.

Carol25 · 25-01-2020 9:14am

From what I can gather on Twitter, the hospitals are overwhelmed. People are collapsing in the streets of Wuhan & a doctors note has gone viral stating one person infects up to 14 others as the virus has mutated. He also estimated 90,000 as the number of people infected. Is there a cover up going on? Twitter is a very much believe what you wish platform without much ‘independently verified’ information so it’s a very much make your own mind up situation.

mountai · 25-01-2020 9:48am

Well at least WE dont have to worry according to our esteemed HSE , who have announced "Ireland is a low risk country" . Well we know what the HSE is capable of . F all .

25-01-2020 10:00am

4 in Australia, more being tested. One landed back on the 6th January. Long incubation period and hundreds of fellow passengers exposed....

25-01-2020 11:01am

Wonder if the seemingly really bad dose that was doing the rounds just pre-Christmas mightn't have been the usual seasonal thing.

creditcarder · 25-01-2020 12:04pm

Carol25 wrote: »

From what I can gather on Twitter, the hospitals are overwhelmed. People are collapsing in the streets of Wuhan & a doctors note has gone viral stating one person infects up to 14 others as the virus has mutated. He also estimated 90,000 as the number of people infected. Is there a cover up going on? Twitter is a very much believe what you wish platform without much ‘independently verified’ information so it’s a very much make your own mind up situation.

Probably from the old people and people being nervous about getting it as I don't think china has gps per se. They just have hospitals.

Seems a bit alarmist in the twitter tbh.

4068ac1elhodqr · 25-01-2020 12:13pm

fritzelly wrote: »

Didn't you hear - climate change caused this because "insert ludicrous excuses"

CC may benefit from this already, via an expected (temporary, but possibly longer) closure or demand reduction for flights.
Oil is also dropping very quickly in price, thanks to an expected demand reduction from airliners.

Edging towards C'Theories:
But someone reckons the current deepest sunspot minimum could play a part in virus risk. It causes the Earth’s magnetic field to weaken allowing “biological entities” (including foreign DNA) to fall to the planet’s surface will less damage.

Another equally far fetched theory relates to BG-Foundation, thought it was funny until seen a webbanner advertisng 'this pandemic {alert} was brought to you by...." This event has also occured shortly after the world's billionaires finished their yearly Davos (behind doors) meet-up and chat about the coming year.

thomas 123 · 25-01-2020 12:16pm

mountai wrote: »

Well at least WE dont have to worry according to our esteemed HSE , who have announced "Ireland is a low risk country" . Well we know what the HSE is capable of . F all .

I’ve always wondered what our hospitals would do in the case of any serious incident, say a bus crash... I was I. A&E for a minor injury once(stitches needed) and was left waiting 12 hours, I later found out 2 people came in from a car accident, both died and at the time I understood waiting 12 hours to be sorted, but It just goes to show we would be absolutely on our knees if anything like what is happening in China happened here.

It scares me to think our HSE/Government are taking no measures(and probably won’t) to stop this coming into Ireland.

LeBash · 25-01-2020 12:16pm

I wouldnt be overly worried. The average Irish person has culturally made their body a place germs dont want to live.

Witchie · 25-01-2020 12:24pm

The 3 cases here in Malaysia are family members of the first man confirmed in Singapore. I am so annoyed that they travelled on to Malaysia when he was kept in Singapore. Why the fook didn't the Singaporean authorities keep them there instead of letting the infection spread to another country. So angry right now.

I have just recovered from flu and have a bad cold and still coughing now. As an asthmatic, am now a bit scared to leave my apartment.

Happy Chinese new year my ass.

nigeldaniel · 25-01-2020 12:37pm

Just back from the local shops after getting the Sun paper. A guy I know well insisted quite bluntly that the coronavirus was a result of Chinese agents planning an infection for Hong Kong but it went haywire. He is a bit like that so I humored him for a while and then went on my way.

ChikiChiki · 25-01-2020 12:41pm

thomas 123 wrote: »

I’ve always wondered what our hospitals would do in the case of any serious incident, say a bus crash... I was I. A&E for a minor injury once(stitches needed) and was left waiting 12 hours, I later found out 2 people came in from a car accident, both died and at the time I understood waiting 12 hours to be sorted, but It just goes to show we would be absolutely on our knees if anything like what is happening in China happened here.

It scares me to think our HSE/Government are taking no measures(and probably won’t) to stop this coming into Ireland.

I'm of the opinion we should always have a surplus of bed available as a contingency.

The Govt and bean counters don't see it that way at all. You can't mess with health in that regard. We will see the repurcussions IF* the virus becomes an epidemic here.

25-01-2020 12:43pm

nigeldaniel wrote: »

Just back from the local shops after getting the Sun paper. A guy I know well insisted quite bluntly that the coronavirus was a result of Chinese agents planning an infection for Hong Kong but it went haywire. He is a bit like that so I humored him for a while and then went on my way.

The /r/HongKong subreddit has people like that. There's some photo of a sick person in HK airport and people are saying China sent him there.

Kermit.de.frog · 25-01-2020 12:44pm

nigeldaniel wrote: »

Just back from the local shops after getting the Sun paper...

I stopped reading at this point.

creditcarder · 25-01-2020 12:47pm

nigeldaniel wrote: »

Just back from the local shops after getting the Sun paper. A guy I know well insisted quite bluntly that the coronavirus was a result of Chinese agents planning an infection for Hong Kong but it went haywire. He is a bit like that so I humored him for a while and then went on my way.

Irish? I love how strangely quirky and invidual the Irish are and I hope we don't lose it tbh

Hmmmmm, I doubt it tbh. It could be possible as they are very easily locking down the cities, but infecting a city like hong kong is pretty much like shooting a nuke during the cold war. It has enough autonomy and there are enough expats there that I would be terrified what would happen next with disease warfare.

Now, creepy thought. Wouldn't it be a better attack to use a disease that could cause long term fatigue or health issues to damage the economy and put stress on the government/healthcare than just killing people? You're friend is wrong, imo, but it does lead to some seriously creepy thoughts.

25-01-2020 12:53pm

Warning this is totally unverified atm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oxIhGyi0YH8 

thecretinhop · 25-01-2020 1:33pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Warning this is totally unverified atm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oxIhGyi0YH8 ;

if this is true we are all fkd

Snow Garden · 25-01-2020 1:37pm

thecretinhop wrote: »

if this is true we are all fkd

The fear virus is not deadly. It just makes people prone to overreacting.

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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