*** Heavy Rain and High Winds for many as Storm approaches(Mon 24th - Tues 25th Sept)

200motels · 22-09-2012 10:07pm

I'd say we here in Waterford could escape the worst of it.

Redsunset · 22-09-2012 10:33pm

Ah I think most rainfall is really only for the North of the country. Seems to be hitting the UK full whack.

Deep Easterly · 22-09-2012 11:16pm

Redsunset wrote: »

Ah I think most rainfall is really only for the North of the country. Seems to be hitting the UK full whack.

Although no way near as potent, the set up that the ECM is showing for the mid week period is not overly dissimilar to that which brought those frequent thundery showers to the east coast in either Oct 03 or 04.

leahyl · 22-09-2012 11:25pm

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Redsunset wrote: »

Ah I think most rainfall is really only for the North of the country. Seems to be hitting the UK full whack.

Although no way near as potent, the set up that the ECM is showing for the mid week period is not overly dissimilar to that which brought those frequent thundery showers to the east coast in either Oct 03 or 04.

Showers on the east coast?! I seem to remember Cork City being under water in Oct 03 alright....

Deep Easterly · 22-09-2012 11:30pm

leahyl wrote: »

Showers on the east coast?! I seem to remember Cork City being under water in Oct 03 alright....

Was there ever a time that is wasn't???

Edit: Cork City washed out in Oct 2004 alright; shower event in the east was in Oct 2003:

http://www.met.ie/climate/monthlyBulletins/oct04.pdf
http://www.met.ie/climate/monthlyBulletins/oct03.pdf

Oscar Bravo · 22-09-2012 11:52pm

Its fast approaching five to midnight so lets head over to Met Eireann for the very latest on Rte Radio1 /Sky 0160.

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 22-09-2012 11:56pm

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Its fast approaching five to midnight so lets head over to Met Eireann for the very latest on Rte Radio1 /Sky 0160.

They did mention heavy rain for the east coast alright

up for anything · 23-09-2012 12:03am

maquiladora wrote: »

Are you in Kilkenny? I wouldn't expect much rain there at all. It's really the east/north that is at risk of the heavy rain.

Yeah, Kilkenny. Damn, I thought we were going to get it. It must have been an earlier forecast I was reading or something. All that work for nowt!

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 23-09-2012 12:07am

up for anything wrote: »

Yeah, Kilkenny. Damn, I thought we were going to get it. It must have been an earlier forecast I was reading or something. All that work for nowt!

Sure its done now and ya get brownie points for doing it ! :pac:

redsteveireland · 23-09-2012 12:16am

up for anything wrote: »

Yeah, Kilkenny. Damn, I thought we were going to get it. It must have been an earlier forecast I was reading or something. All that work for nowt!

Brownie points and I'd rather do it now before it gets colder!

Met Eireann are giving heavy rain tomorrow night and Monday for the west. Does this match the latest model runs?

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 23-09-2012 12:22am

redsteveireland wrote: »

Brownie points and I'd rather do it now before it gets colder!

Met Eireann are giving heavy rain tomorrow night and Monday for the west. Does this match the latest model runs?

The HIRLAM doesn't seem to show it

http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/index/danmark/vejrkort.htm

Choose "Nebdor" and let it run

maquiladora · 23-09-2012 12:23am

redsteveireland wrote: »

Met Eireann are giving heavy rain tomorrow night and Monday for the west. Does this match the latest model runs?

That would be associated with another low pressure system coming down from the northwest. I don't see a whole lot of rain from that for the west tomorrow.

Redsunset · 23-09-2012 12:44am

18z Hi res Hirlam accumulated rainfall till 6am Tuesday

Redsunset · 23-09-2012 2:56am

Here's a 12z model comparison of the big 4 to help show where the low is headed. Image are for midday on Tuesday and show the 24 hour precip totals. The northern half of country looks most miserable but as the system will be clipping east coast during it's rotation prior to this, these regions could see some hefty rainfall too. Still not certain though.

jimmynokia · 23-09-2012 3:54am

the indo had this to say today..
http://www.independent.ie/weather/weather-alert-frost-hail-and-thunder-on-way-as-temperature-set-to-plunge-3236203.html

Sponge Bob · 23-09-2012 10:58am

The system has crossed the south coast of England and is just into south Wales now and is raining across a broad area. Heaviest rain will come onshore Dorset Hampshire or so around midday

Watch it here.

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

TURRICAN · 23-09-2012 12:34pm

Sat 24 is showing plenty of thunderstorm activity and even has a strike recorded in Ireland.
Hopefully we will get some action.
http://www.sat24.com/

Edit
Irish strike is gone now must be a mistake. Typical Irish bloody weather;)

maquiladora · 23-09-2012 12:42pm

I would be surprised if there wasn't some flooding in parts of England and Wales from this over the next few days.

Any impact here will probably only be in the north/northeast, if at all.

Cantona's Collars · 23-09-2012 12:54pm

maquiladora wrote: »

I would be surprised if there wasn't some flooding in parts of England and Wales from this over the next few days.

Any impact here will probably only be in the north/northeast, if at all.

I love a good storm but this week England are welcome to it.Didn't fancy going around the ploughing championships with the place like a swamp.

Redsunset · 23-09-2012 1:38pm

I've changed thread title to point out provinces where most rainfall and stronger wind is forecast. While the east looks to get some heavy rain over night, it's northern regions that should experience the most inclement conditions overall. Local flooding is very likely here. The rest of the country looks somewhat spared any deluge.

notnumber · 23-09-2012 2:18pm

Netweather have 60mm of rain falling over Dublin tomorrow with most it falling from 12-6 pm..:eek:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=world;page=2;loc=1011164~dublin,%20Dublin,%20IRELAND;sess=#forecast

Belfast getting even more!!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=world;page=2;loc=807907~belfast,%20Belfast,%20UNITED%20KINGDOM;sess=#forecast

maquiladora · 23-09-2012 2:29pm

Amber warnings for Northern Ireland for Monday and Tuesday posted by the UK Met Office now.

Su Campu · 23-09-2012 4:00pm

This low is called Karin.

Iancar29 · 23-09-2012 5:21pm

12z GFS shifts more of the precip in land effecting more of Ireland tomorrow and into Tuesday , oh how i love the complexity of the Weather!

EDIT: NMM Model coinciding with the GFS and brings more of the persistent rain
to a larger part of the East with a higher chance of flooding with 50mm possible over the course of tomorrow. ONe to watch for sure.

ninebeanrows · 23-09-2012 7:45pm

This system looks like becoming increasingly troublesome.

GFS 12z is particularly alarming.

Not only precipitation but now windspeeds onto the east coast and combined with the torrential rain will make things increasingly rough as tomorrow progresses.

GFS gives windspeeds at 925hpa of near 55/60KTs along east coast. Suggesting gusts to near this level (above 60mph).

Also precipitation amounts of potentially as much as 100mm in exposed parts.

It will be interesting to see if the system begins to ramp up in the model output in the next 12 hours.

maquiladora · 23-09-2012 7:52pm

Met Eireann:

Weather Warning

Issued at 23 September 2012 - 19:00

Weather Advisory
Between 25 and 40mm of rain will accumulate during Monday 24th September in north and east Leinster, as well as much of Ulster. Higher totals may be recorded in east Ulster.

Valid from 03:00 hours Monday, 24-Sep-2012 until 23:59 hours Monday, 24-Sep-2012

maquiladora · 23-09-2012 8:05pm

One of the interesting things about this system that makes it different from the more typical lows we see coming around our neck of the woods is that instead of this low weakening and filling as it reaches land it will actually be deepening tonight and tomorrow over the UK.

Big Daddy Cool · 23-09-2012 8:10pm

off tomorrow so looking forward to this, we live just north of slane in Meath, how much rain could we potentially see?

ninebeanrows · 23-09-2012 8:15pm

Big Daddy Cool wrote: »

off tomorrow so looking forward to this, we live just north of slane in Meath, how much rain could we potentially see?

You could see 50mm. But still very uncertain.

TURRICAN · 23-09-2012 8:25pm

Weatherman2012 wrote: »

Guys biggest problem if the latest model runs are correct is high winds and heavy rain will lead to huge leaf fall from trees and in turn this could potentially cause big problems in terms of flooding.

True dat.
That will make driving conditions alot more tricky too with Slippy leaves down.

Iancar29 · 23-09-2012 9:15pm

Shall be interesting to hear what Met Éireann have to say after the news.

Just of note just been out walking the dog down the park , the ground is very dry and cold , feels like a rock! And heavy downpours at first will run right off..

But ye... ohhh to have this sight to watch right now!

average_runner · 23-09-2012 9:24pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

Shall be interesting to hear what Met Éireann have to say after the news.

Just of note just been out walking the dog down the park , the ground is very dry and cold , feels like a rock! And heavy downpours at first will run right off..

But ye... ohhh to have this sight to watch right now!

looks the north to get the worst. Dublin to be wet for awhile but no warning.

maquiladora · 23-09-2012 9:33pm

18Z models will be interesting. GFS to back off or other models to come more into line with the GFS?

Oscar Bravo · 23-09-2012 9:43pm

A nice line of showers developing in the West now.

bilston · 23-09-2012 9:47pm

Living in Belfast do the weather experts here advise me to bring an umbrella to work tomorrow?:)

Sappa · 23-09-2012 9:49pm

What sort of rainfall for Galway.

maquiladora · 23-09-2012 9:49pm

bilston wrote: »

Living in Belfast do the weather experts here advise me to bring an umbrella to work tomorrow?:)

No. Bring four.

maquiladora · 23-09-2012 10:23pm

18Z NAE showing up to 77mm on the east coast by 48 hours.

100+mm in some areas of the UK.

pauldry · 23-09-2012 10:24pm

Id say tomorrow approx rainfalls would be

Dublin 25mm
Belfast 35mm
Donegal 30mm (Sam)
Claremorris 20mm (Samless)
Galway 15mm
Ballyhaise 40mm
Mullingar 25mm
Shannon 10mm
Cork 5mm

Wind gusts of 60 knots possible tomorrow night in Northwest

Oh Sligo of course!!! 28mm Ill guess.

maquiladora · 23-09-2012 10:53pm

18Z GFS has backed off on the rain totals for the east by 36 hours.

Could all change on the 0Z again of course.

mike65 · 23-09-2012 10:53pm

This isn't much of anything really is it?

maquiladora · 23-09-2012 11:01pm

mike65 wrote: »

This isn't much of anything really is it?

Certainly not for Waterford anyway Mike!

notnumber · 23-09-2012 11:12pm

Dublin 22mm
Belfast 45mm
Donegal 2-11
Claremorris trace(<0.15)

winds picking up here and getting gusty..rain is on the way

mike65 · 23-09-2012 11:18pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Certainly not for Waterford anyway Mike!

Our snow shield is pretty adaptable its true!

Oscar Bravo · 23-09-2012 11:33pm

A band of heavy rain has been affecting some Western parts since 9pm and has urged Met Eireann to post a warning....Rainfall warning for West Connaught
Heavy rain will continue over West Connaught tonight with 35 - 50 mm possible in the next 6 to 12 hrs

Deep Easterly · 23-09-2012 11:39pm

12hr rainfall accumulation map (based only on radar returns). Ireland in the clear thus far. Haven't been monitoring model outputs that much but the bulk of the rain seems to have occurred a little more to the SE than was forecast I think.

(chart from Netweather)

Sponge Bob · 23-09-2012 11:43pm

A pulsey looking band ( separate from the big low) is locked in on a line from around Shannon to Belmullet via Newport, a similarly positioned S>N thundery band caused some severe local flash floods in West Mayo in July 2009 with roads bridges swept away etc although that event hit 40mm an hour at one stage.

Maybe the Met are conscious of not incurring the Taoiseachs wrath even though the warning issued too late for anyone to do anything about it other than wonder where the road has gone in the morning...if it comes to that.

Oscar Bravo · 23-09-2012 11:51pm

Well lets hear the very latest from Met Eireann as its fast approaching five to midnight,Rte Radio or Sky 0160.

eastmayo · 23-09-2012 11:51pm

pauldry wrote: »

Id say tomorrow approx rainfalls would be

Dublin 25mm
Belfast 35mm
Donegal 30mm (Sam)
Claremorris 20mm (Samless)
Galway 15mm
Ballyhaise 40mm
Mullingar 25mm
Shannon 10mm
Cork 5mm

Wind gusts of 60 knots possible tomorrow night in Northwest

Oh Sligo of course!!! 28mm Ill guess.

Funny man

Deep Easterly · 23-09-2012 11:58pm

Sponge Bob wrote: »

a similarly positioned S>N thundery band caused some severe local flash floods in West Mayo in July 2009 with roads bridges swept away etc although that event hit 40mm an hour at one stage.

Remember that event well. Remember in paticular how the whole storm system completely avoided this area. :rolleyes:

*** Heavy Rain and High Winds for many as Storm approaches(Mon 24th - Tues 25th Sept)

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