SPRING WEATHER 2014

nice evening, if a little chilly. There are lenticular clouds west of arklow at the moment

Let the winter synoptics finally arrive!

I never trust getting good weather at this time of yr,with the weather being good recently maybe this is our summer lol. Glorious weather in particular though yesterday and today. Went for a walk yesterday and couldnt belive it when i looked at the temp when i got home and it was only around 12/13c, felt much warmer then that out and about.

Low pressure close by during the coming weekend,so a probably fairly unsettled last weekend of April with bands of rain or showers about.

A very poor outlook from MT this morning for the lead in to the beginning of May, mostly unsettled and temps well below normal. The UK Met are going with this too, and forecast cool or cold and damp conditions up to May 8th with a likelihood of it settling down after that, although still cool away from the South of England which sounds like pressure building from the north.

So, the silver lining, no more dust on your car, excellent air quality and good star gazing weather!

Rainfall from late Friday to early Sunday could reach 30-40 mm in some parts of the inland south and west. At this point I would rather not disrupt this thread with a level one separate thread but it is in that sort of grey area between average weather event and level one, so we may see a thread starting up from somebody else. Rather strong southeast winds likely on the south coast around midnight to 0600h (early Saturday) possible peak gusts of 100 km/hr. Further north into more populated areas, peak gusts 70-90 km/hr. Once again, not enough to justify a separate thread but worth noting if you have travel plans for late Friday night into Saturday morning.

Looks like all those missing easterlies from winter 2013-14 have decided to show up now. It's a bit too mild now for any snow except perhaps near the highest summits in Kerry. But later next week that snow line may come down to around 500 metres which would put a touch of snow on almost all significant hills around the country.

Yes, the models are delaying and weakening the cold spell, and it may only be cold for about 2-3 days later next week.

A nice Gust of 50kts at Valentia on the 2000 reports.followed by Sherkin at 49kts.

56kts now at Valentia.

51kts at Kinsale. 2200 reports.

Over turned van, father and child trapped, flash floods, closing many roads including the tunnel [Jack Lynch] record rain rate of 46mm/hr, Sun Valley Drive burst mains manhole cover blown in the air.

Airport [strangely] operating normally, no major gusts, Douglas holding out, major culverts seemingly doing their job.

I have 24mm rain since 18:00. [today 25th]

I suppose the theory about early warmth killing off summer hopes is based on a combination of analogues where this happened, and the idea that there can only be so many warm spells so if you use one up in May that takes away a chance later.

Let's see how this works in practical terms. First to the analogues, 2008 had some very fine weather in the first half of May. Not that great a summer. Late May and early June 2009 had summery weather, then it was not so great until maybe September. April 2011 was very warm, rest of that summer average at best. So recently, the concept seems to work out.

Looking at a longer period, I need to use the UK stats because I don't have enough data handy. Some of the warmer Mays had no really good weather in the following summer, but others such as 1868 and 1947 had some good or even excellent spells. It looks about random for correlation overall but you can conclude that a warm May is no guarantee of any particular summer outcome. It might depend on whether the warmth came from east or south. FWIW, my own summer outlook (in the planning stages) shows a fairly average summer to mid-August then warmer than average late in the summer period. And the model was showing this warmth in May so that adds some confidence. I feel fairly confident that warmth will fade for a while and won't just continue through June, but it may return a couple of times rather than boycotting the summer altogether.