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SPRING WEATHER 2014

1356

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    QUOTE=philstar;89843720]nippy out isn't it[/QUOTE]

    indeed it has been ...been trading at a street market and chill winds around the showers. but when the sun broke though, blissful heat.

    lovely to see the old folk on low season coach tours wandering about enjoying ice cream


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,047 ✭✭✭Clonmel1000


    Yes certainly a nippy day. Seem to have missed a lot of the showers today but generally dull all day. Hopefully Easter will see some dry mild weather which has been missing this spring.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,750 ✭✭✭fleet_admiral


    nice evening, if a little chilly. There are lenticular clouds west of arklow at the moment


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Graces7 wrote: »
    keep an eye on met eirreann.. i have dozens of seed trays out but can over them with old sheets if need be, maybe wait a weekor so yet to seed the grass

    frost warning out for i think thursday night...


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,961 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    feeling quite chilly out there now, So far this has been a dissapointingly cool spring, hoping for some warmth soon.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    the mountains have been veiled all day

    will veil my young plants tonight too against the frost that is forecast


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,961 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Met Eireann going for a cold and unsettled week next week leading up to Easter so no sign of any warmth any time soon:(


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Gonzo wrote: »
    Met Eireann going for a cold and unsettled week next week leading up to Easter so no sign of any warmth any time soon:(

    yeah i saw that. ah well, my peas and broad beans are sturdy so will be planted out soon, which will be an interesting time with one arm.:rolleyes:


  • Registered Users Posts: 352 ✭✭kkontour


    Looks like all the radars are down.....

    303346.png
    or else its not raining anywhere in Ireland, and which seems more likely?
    :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,421 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    Perfect blue skies for the last 2 days. I'm gonna be sad to see the clouds arrive again tomorrow :(


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,972 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Its a bit soon to be getting hopes up but I'm getting a good vibe about the general pressure situation.

    Hope I've not put the mockers on it! :p


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,421 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    mike65 wrote: »
    Its a bit soon to be getting hopes up but I'm getting a good vibe about the general pressure situation.

    Hope I've not put the mockers on it! :p

    Interesting period of wet weather going to come across us from the EAST in the coming days. Seems to develop over Germany and track across Belgium, the UK and Ireland.

    This is all your fault Mike!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Let the winter synoptics finally arrive!

    ECM1-240.GIF


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,760 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    The last thing one wants to see in the weeks leading up to summer proper is a Greeny High getting estaiblished - if you look back at the long run of poor summer from 07-12 you will see the Greeny High was the prime culprit. We need it to %%% off till next winter


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    Looks like we might have a strong NINO event on the cards this summer, strongest in some years according to some. What are the repercussions for our island?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,191 ✭✭✭yellowlabrador


    patneve2 wrote: »
    Looks like we might have a strong NINO event on the cards this summer, strongest in some years according to some. What are the repercussions for our island?

    wetter than average.....


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,577 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    I never trust getting good weather at this time of yr,with the weather being good recently maybe this is our summer lol. Glorious weather in particular though yesterday and today. Went for a walk yesterday and couldnt belive it when i looked at the temp when i got home and it was only around 12/13c, felt much warmer then that out and about.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,055 ✭✭✭Red Nissan


    Billcarson wrote: »
    I never trust getting good weather at this time of yr,with the weather being good recently maybe this is our summer lol. .

    Don't laugh. We are having an explosive spring, far more massive than in previous years but not unheard of. The Cherry Blossums locally are in FULL BLOOM. That's a good two weeks early, I take that as a sign of a poor summer ahead.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,015 ✭✭✭John.Icy


    Red Nissan wrote: »
    Don't laugh. We are having an explosive spring, far more massive than in previous years but not unheard of.

    You reckon? I'd rank some of the Springs from 2009-2012 much higher than the current spell, which although feels great, is nothing exceptional in many locations temperature wise. I can remember in the years I mention a very decent set of March/April spells, one March was incredible IIRC.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,047 ✭✭✭Clonmel1000


    That was the last week in march 2012. Temps were touching 20 plus degrees for a week or so. The last few days have been lovely and sunny but warm not in my opinion. Irish people love to exaggerate the weather at times hence the flip flop brigade on view since Thursday. You'd hope that the decent weather hasn't arrived 6 weeks to early although I'm inclined to just enjoy it for now and let June/July take care of itself. My prediction for the rest of the spring is for a gradual warming but general more mixed outlook with the summer being average I'm afraid.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,577 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    Low pressure close by during the coming weekend,so a probably fairly unsettled last weekend of April with bands of rain or showers about.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,961 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    next week is looking very cold, with the possibility of our first artic plunge since Spring 2013, could lead to some wintry showers on hills?


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 194 ✭✭D.Campbell


    Billcarson wrote: »
    Low pressure close by during the coming weekend,so a probably fairly unsettled last weekend of April with bands of rain or showers about.
    Saturdayin Cork whats the download please is it rain


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,055 ✭✭✭Red Nissan


    D.Campbell wrote: »
    Saturdayin Cork whats the download please is it rain

    15mm of precipitation expected at this time, widespread soft to moderate rain from early morning throughout the day and fading away during the night.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,355 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    A very poor outlook from MT this morning for the lead in to the beginning of May, mostly unsettled and temps well below normal. The UK Met are going with this too, and forecast cool or cold and damp conditions up to May 8th with a likelihood of it settling down after that, although still cool away from the South of England which sounds like pressure building from the north.

    So, the silver lining, no more dust on your car, excellent air quality and good star gazing weather!


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,983 ✭✭✭✭expectationlost


    where did the mist appear from in north dublin,..... gone again hmm


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,584 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Rainfall from late Friday to early Sunday could reach 30-40 mm in some parts of the inland south and west. At this point I would rather not disrupt this thread with a level one separate thread but it is in that sort of grey area between average weather event and level one, so we may see a thread starting up from somebody else. Rather strong southeast winds likely on the south coast around midnight to 0600h (early Saturday) possible peak gusts of 100 km/hr. Further north into more populated areas, peak gusts 70-90 km/hr. Once again, not enough to justify a separate thread but worth noting if you have travel plans for late Friday night into Saturday morning.

    Looks like all those missing easterlies from winter 2013-14 have decided to show up now. It's a bit too mild now for any snow except perhaps near the highest summits in Kerry. But later next week that snow line may come down to around 500 metres which would put a touch of snow on almost all significant hills around the country.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    Monday and Tuesday look warm


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,584 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Yes, the models are delaying and weakening the cold spell, and it may only be cold for about 2-3 days later next week.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Rainfall from late Friday to early Sunday could reach 30-40 mm in some parts of the inland south and west. At this point I would rather not disrupt this thread with a level one separate thread but it is in that sort of grey area between average weather event and level one, so we may see a thread starting up from somebody else. Rather strong southeast winds likely on the south coast around midnight to 0600h (early Saturday) possible peak gusts of 100 km/hr. Further north into more populated areas, peak gusts 70-90 km/hr. Once again, not enough to justify a separate thread but worth noting if you have travel plans for late Friday night into Saturday morning.

    Looks like all those missing easterlies from winter 2013-14 have decided to show up now. It's a bit too mild now for any snow except perhaps near the highest summits in Kerry. But later next week that snow line mropay come down to around 500 metres which would put a touch of snow on almost all significant hills around the country.

    thought i had the date wrong reading this....snow!

    hearing from family in bc canada re the earthquake puts it in proportion.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,207 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    A nice Gust of 50kts at Valentia on the 2000 reports.followed by Sherkin at 49kts.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,207 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Nice tight gradient off the South coast in the coming hours


  • Registered Users Posts: 95 ✭✭Aimsir


    Nice tight gradient off the South coast in the coming hours

    pretty windy hete now cork city south


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,207 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    cheers Aimsir, I see an inbound flight to Cork has just diverted to Shannon.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,207 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    56kts now at Valentia.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    wild, wild and loud here in south kerry


  • Registered Users Posts: 95 ✭✭Aimsir


    getting worse here in cork


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,207 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Some very strong winds will just miss our south coast tonight


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,207 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    51kts at Kinsale. 2200 reports.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,327 ✭✭✭sunbabe08


    ahhhh this weather is grand :D listening to the rain pelting off the window, it's been a while. just waiting for some thunder and lightening.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,055 ✭✭✭Red Nissan


    Over turned van, father and child trapped, flash floods, closing many roads including the tunnel [Jack Lynch] record rain rate of 46mm/hr, Sun Valley Drive burst mains manhole cover blown in the air.

    Airport [strangely] operating normally, no major gusts, Douglas holding out, major culverts seemingly doing their job.

    I have 24mm rain since 18:00. [today 25th]


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,207 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    46kts mace head,45kts roaches point and cork airport....2300 reports.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    dreadful night and debris everywhere now. winter is back. bitter cold and strong winds; south kerry.


  • Registered Users Posts: 635 ✭✭✭Video


    The dragon attacking ireland last night ....

    5OdCALV.jpg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    my feral cat came home so knew the weather was calming. he is a true gypsy and does not trust bricks and mortar in bad weather so i always know when we are in for a storm...


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,015 ✭✭✭John.Icy


    Absolutely stunning GFS 12z eye candy once we get the next couple of days out of the way with.

    If it came off though it'd be a real worry it'd be our Summer. High pressure sinking from the North and building over us around the 2nd of May and by the 13th of May it's only strengthening further! Let's hope in the small chance it did come off per the GFS 12z way that it wouldn't spoil our Summer.

    We've already been spoiled with a couple of lovely days over the last while so here's hoping we don't use up our Sun quota before June.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1 hurtle


    John.Icy wrote: »
    Absolutely stunning GFS 12z eye candy once we get the next couple of days out of the way with.

    If it came off though it'd be a real worry it'd be our Summer. High pressure sinking from the North and building over us around the 2nd of May and by the 13th of May it's only strengthening further! Let's hope in the small chance it did come off per the GFS 12z way that it wouldn't spoil our Summer.

    We've already been spoiled with a couple of lovely days over the last while so here's hoping we don't use up our Sun quota before June.

    Hey guys. I always check here for the weather but have never posted. What I want to ask (because I hear people say it constantly!) is if there's any actual meteorological basis for saying 'this is our summer' if there's nice weather early on, or if it's just people being pessimistic?

    My gut feeling is that the answer is no, seeing as though it seems to be difficult to know what the weather will be like tomorrow, never mind in July or August!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,055 ✭✭✭Red Nissan


    hurtle wrote: »
    My gut feeling is that the answer is no, !

    I'll site our very recent explosive and short Spring, last week to be precise. Add that to the charts and I'd say we've had our summer. Add in also the quietest tornado season in 100 years and last year's almost non existent North Atlantic Hurricane season and we have all the ingredients to speculate that the broader summer period will be poor, or poorer.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,584 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I suppose the theory about early warmth killing off summer hopes is based on a combination of analogues where this happened, and the idea that there can only be so many warm spells so if you use one up in May that takes away a chance later.

    Let's see how this works in practical terms. First to the analogues, 2008 had some very fine weather in the first half of May. Not that great a summer. Late May and early June 2009 had summery weather, then it was not so great until maybe September. April 2011 was very warm, rest of that summer average at best. So recently, the concept seems to work out.

    Looking at a longer period, I need to use the UK stats because I don't have enough data handy. Some of the warmer Mays had no really good weather in the following summer, but others such as 1868 and 1947 had some good or even excellent spells. It looks about random for correlation overall but you can conclude that a warm May is no guarantee of any particular summer outcome. It might depend on whether the warmth came from east or south. FWIW, my own summer outlook (in the planning stages) shows a fairly average summer to mid-August then warmer than average late in the summer period. And the model was showing this warmth in May so that adds some confidence. I feel fairly confident that warmth will fade for a while and won't just continue through June, but it may return a couple of times rather than boycotting the summer altogether.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Got to love FI on the ECM this morning.

    dqLwupy.png


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