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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

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    #1352
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    smurgen wrote: »
    No we don't. We're facing into a prolonged deflation period. I stand by my claim at the start of the pandemic that we're facing medium and long term falls in property prices.I stand by my claim that prices will be lower for at least ten years.

    no way not unless there is a massive building initiative and I mean huge


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    #1353
    lomb
    Registered Users Posts: 6,031 ✭✭✭lomb


    I think there is 5 years of deflation or more. Reasons are
    End of business cycle= loss of demand for labour
    Corona = Same
    Higher taxes due to Corona= Same
    Ai / technologisation of society = Same
    Aging population less keen to spend
    Younger population paying too much to service rent or mortgages versus historical norms ( sure things were tigjt for a few years but wages inflated meaning the mortgage was peanuts ) that will no longer happen
    Building costs Leveling or declining due to reduction in demand


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    #1354
    smurgen
    Registered Users Posts: 6,933 ✭✭✭smurgen


    fliball123 wrote: »
    no way not unless there is a massive building initiative and I mean huge

    Commercial property is finished. The cost of labour in building is about to come way down. Labour supply will be increased massively.


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    #1355
    lomb
    Registered Users Posts: 6,031 ✭✭✭lomb


    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    Deflation can exist even when the government is printing money.

    From what i understand here in Europe and US we are talking about printing lots more money than before and pump it into the system to keep things going.


    This is a risky dynamic in the long term as the currency will lose a lot of its value

    It may not though if labour doesn't increase . With a net loss of jobs due to AI the reduced need for labour is deflationary. Money could go into stock market or bonds for government spending. Government hasn't increased my wages in 20 years and in fact reduced it in crash( dentist)


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    #1356
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    smurgen wrote: »
    Commercial property is finished. The cost of labour in building is about to come way down. Labour supply will be increased massively.

    yeah but you cant have it both ways it also means banks will not lend for this? So where is the money coming from if we are all so broke and everything is going to the sh1tter who is going to have the money to build in the amounts that are needed?


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    #1357
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Pelezico wrote: »
    There is always somewhere to live.

    Is there always somewhere to live? It doesn’t seem so. Whatever about supply and demand there always seems to be a requirement or need for housing no matter who to pay for it. Thats not good.


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    #1358
    Springy Turf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 173 ✭✭Springy Turf


    The amount of bar stool speculation in this thread is staggering. I am posting as a reminder to myself and others that most if the opinions here are based on fairly shaky grounds.

    Based on what I’ve been reading from the ESRI and other sources, the current uncertainty is still massive. But it’s uncertainty, not a guarantee of doomsday.


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    #1359
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,801 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Springy Turf wrote: »
    The amount of bar stool speculation in this thread is staggering. I am posting as a reminder to myself and others that most if the opinions here are based on fairly shaky grounds.

    Based on what I’ve been reading from the ESRI and other sources, the current uncertainty is still massive. But it’s uncertainty, not a guarantee of doomsday.

    what on earth is an internet discussion forum for if not bar stool speculation?

    Particularly when the pubs are shut!


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    #1360
    Iceman29
    Site Banned Posts: 149 ✭✭Iceman29


    awec wrote: »
    Redecorating one room at a time? I would bet that almost every single first time buyer does this.

    Have you ever met or spoken to someone who has bought a house?

    No i meant, sleeping on a mattress on the floor and using borrowed garden chairs as sitting room furniture while watchin a TV that (god forbid wasn't HD ) with no WIFI etc.... you get the picture now Awec.


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    #1361
    Iceman29
    Site Banned Posts: 149 ✭✭Iceman29


    Marius34 wrote: »
    I asked already, where do you get those stats what was few years ago? You keep repeating your stats, but not answering.
    It does sound suspicions, that there are such a big change in trends.

    Suspicious in what way?


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    #1362
    AlmightyCushion
    Moderators, Education Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 35,056 Mod ✭✭✭✭AlmightyCushion


    Iceman29 wrote: »
    No i meant, sleeping on a mattress on the floor and using borrowed garden chairs as sitting room furniture while watchin a TV that (god forbid wasn't HD ) with no WIFI etc.... you get the picture now Awec.

    The guy who everyone is responding to bought his house in the 80s. There was no WiFi or HD TV's back then. You haven't been able to buy non HD TV's for years. I bought a 40" Samsung TV about 10 years ago for 700 euro and it still works fine. Hardly excessive luxury there. How does that one purchase stop me buying a house? As for WiFi every broadband package nowadays comes with it. You really think the reason people can't afford a house is because they bought a HD TV at some stage in the past 15 years and they spend money on a broadband package. Some of the arguements in this thread are seriously stupid.


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    #1363
    Iceman29
    Site Banned Posts: 149 ✭✭Iceman29


    AlmightyCushion wrote: »
    The guy who everyone is responding to bought his house in the 80s. There was no WiFi or HD TV's back then. You haven't been able to buy non HD TV's for years. I bought a 40" Samsung TV about 10 years ago for 700 euro and it still works fine. Hardly excessive luxury there. How does that one purchase stop me buying a house? As for WiFi every broadband package nowadays comes with it. You really think the reason people can't afford a house is because they bought a HD TV at some stage in the past 15 years and they spend money on a broadband package. Some of the arguements in this thread are seriously stupid.

    You have me misunderstood, I never said that's the reason why young people cant afford houses. What i was agreeing with is that the young people now can't live without their instant luxuries.

    I fully agree that its not a fancy TV or their daily coffees that is stopping them from buying but my god young people don't like to slug it out these days.


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    #1364
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    Based in latest sales for july, it takes on average 7 months to sell a house in Dublin.

    4521 houses on myhome.ie 683 sold in Dublin Juy 2020.

    Hardly flying off the shelves.

    This statistic may be worth revisiting from time to time


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    #1365
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,755 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Pelezico wrote: »
    Based in latest sales for july, it takes on average 7 months to sell a house in Dublin.

    4521 houses on myhome.ie 683 sold in Dublin Juy 2020.

    Hardly flying off the shelves.

    This statistic may be worth revisiting from time to time

    And how much of that 7 months is our archaic sales process ?


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    #1366
    JimmyVik
    Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    Springy Turf wrote: »
    The amount of bar stool speculation in this thread is staggering. I am posting as a reminder to myself and others that most if the opinions here are based on fairly shaky grounds.

    Based on what I’ve been reading from the ESRI and other sources, the current uncertainty is still massive. But it’s uncertainty, not a guarantee of doomsday.


    I love going back and reading property threads from 10 years ago.
    Great fun.


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    #1367
    Markitron
    Registered Users Posts: 3,157 ✭✭✭Markitron


    JimmyVik wrote: »
    I love going back and reading property threads from 10 years ago.
    Great fun.

    Out of curiosity, what were people saying in 2008/09? I wasn't paying any attention back then but I just assumed that crash wasn't hard to see coming


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    #1368
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    Iceman29 wrote: »
    Suspicious in what way?

    What it was said, that in previous years there were small number of myhome property price reduction, only 20 decrease per week, but currently the adds starts to reduce price 5 times more, to 100 per week.
    As this is 5 times in difference, it just simply suspicious that something is missing here. As many stories in here provided has false information, some of the posters I have correct.
    In this case, I have never followed myhome add price reduction, so don't know what's the real story. But now that the one who reported those stats does not want to tell where he gets past data what it used to be, I think it may be made up numbers.


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    #1369
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    Pelezico wrote: »
    Based in latest sales for july, it takes on average 7 months to sell a house in Dublin.

    4521 houses on myhome.ie 683 sold in Dublin Juy 2020.

    Hardly flying off the shelves.

    This statistic may be worth revisiting from time to time

    We don't know July numbers yet in first place. Once most of it will be recorded by begging of September it will be over 900


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    #1370
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    MacronvFrugals wrote: »
    A lady that lives close to me got her house valued last year 390k - its beautiful and had 180k worth of work including a double extension and redecoration.

    The same estate agent told her 320k is the price now last week.

    Thats D7 though because i know other posters were mentioning other areas are doing better than ever.

    Personally i'm looking at D11 and prices have dropped 5% in the last 3 months according to myhome.ie

    I think she might have been poorly advised. Putting 180k into a house bought for around 120-200k was madness. You'd never get that back. You'd only do that if you were going to live in for a very long time.

    I'd also be wary of estate agents estimates. I've known them to be way off the mark.


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    #1371
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Pelezico wrote: »
    Based in latest sales for july, it takes on average 7 months to sell a house in Dublin.

    4521 houses on myhome.ie 683 sold in Dublin Juy 2020.

    Hardly flying off the shelves.

    This statistic may be worth revisiting from time to time

    Look at the context. Viewings next to impossible, lots of banks, solicitors and business not fully open for business. That alone is going to slow sales.


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    #1372
    landofthetree
    Registered Users Posts: 2,303 ✭✭✭landofthetree


    beauf wrote: »
    Look at the context. Viewings next to impossible, lots of banks, solicitors and business not fully open for business. That alone is going to slow sales.

    Plus 20% of all adults either unemployed or on 305euro pandemic payment.


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    #1373
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Pelezico wrote: »
    Based in latest sales for july, it takes on average 7 months to sell a house in Dublin.

    4521 houses on myhome.ie 683 sold in Dublin Juy 2020.

    Hardly flying off the shelves.

    This statistic may be worth revisiting from time to time

    Do you think the country being locked down for several months may have skewed the figures slightly?


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    #1374
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    Graham wrote: »
    Do you think the country being locked down for several months may have skewed the figures slightly?

    Maybe...maybe not. This might be the new normal.

    None of this relates to our archaic sales system. I forgot to include sale agreed.

    So ten months to sell a house.


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    #1375
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    landofthetree wrote: »
    Plus 20% of all adults either unemployed or on 305euro pandemic payment.

    Probably only a small % of these were potential buyers.

    I'm just saying you couldn't do normal business. Everything stopped or slowed to a crawl.


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    #1376
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Pelezico wrote: »
    Maybe...maybe not. This might be the new normal.

    None of this relates to our archaic sales system. I forgot to include sale agreed.

    So ten months to sell a house.

    It makes comparing last year and this year and pre and post Lockdown largely useless.

    The only figures worth looking at are the ones post lockdown.


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    #1377
    JimmyVik
    Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    Markitron wrote: »
    Out of curiosity, what were people saying in 2008/09? I wasn't paying any attention back then but I just assumed that crash wasn't hard to see coming

    Same people saying prices are going to go down dont buy now, were saying the same thing then.

    Same people saying buy because prices are going to go up, were saying the same thing then too.

    You should read them. They are excellent. And just go to show you the reasons that we all think things are going to happen, dont actually turn out to be the reasons, even if they do happen. Make you realize that myself and everyone else who give a prediction, is only guessing at the end of the day. But you would think some are economists, psychic even, the way they are so cock sure that they are right with their predictions.
    If they are that good, none of them will be posting here in 5 years. They will be using that skill and sipping Martinis in Barbados with their riches from such skill :)


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    #1378
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    beauf wrote: »
    It makes comparing last year and this year and pre and post Lockdown largely useless.

    The only figures worth looking at are the ones post lockdown.


    I am a numbers man. Those sales are the total sales on register for July and those house numbers are the houses on myhome.ie this morning not sale agreed

    Next month we can do it again and see if there is a trend.


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    #1379
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    beauf wrote: »
    It makes comparing last year and this year and pre and post Lockdown largely useless.

    The only figures worth looking at are the ones post lockdown.


    I am a numbers man. Those sales are the total sales on register for July and those house numbers are the houses on myhome.ie this morning not sale agreed

    Next month we can do it again and see if there is a trend.


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    #1380
    Billythekid19
    Registered Users Posts: 166 ✭✭Billythekid19


    JimmyVik wrote: »
    Same people saying prices are going to go down dont buy now, were saying the same thing then.


    Same people saying buy because prices are going to go up, were saying the same thing then too.


    You should read them. They are excellent. And just go to show you the reasons that we all think things are going to happen, dont actually turn out to be the reasons, even if they do happen.

    Prices are only going to trend downwards, the countrys job market is in turmoil. There will be another 100,000 + unemployed people by this time next year, look at the hospitality sector alone. Look at job losses in the last few weeks, BOI 1400 job losses, 500 Aer Lingus job losses LinkedIn to cut 6% of its global workforce. pc world, BorgWarner factory, stryker to name just a few.


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    #1381
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,755 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Pelezico wrote: »
    I am a numbers man. Those sales are the total sales on register for July and those house numbers are the houses on myhome.ie this morning not sale agreed

    Next month we can do it again and see if there is a trend.

    total sales for july on the register isnt total sales for July though, you understand it takes months for sales to appear on the PPR right?


This discussion has been closed.
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