Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Cyrus

Billythekid19 wrote: »

Prices are only going to trend downwards, the countrys job market is in turmoil. There will be another 100,000 + unemployed people by this time next year, look at the hospitality sector alone. Look at job losses in the last few weeks, BOI 1400 job losses, 500 Aer Lingus job losses LinkedIn to cut 6% of its global workforce. pc world, BorgWarner factory, stryker to name just a few.

BOI are seeking 1400 voluntary redundancies over the coming years but dont lead the truth get in the way of the headline.

Linkedin job losses in ireland will be in the low 100s if even that.

yosser hughes

Markitron wrote: »

Out of curiosity, what were people saying in 2008/09? I wasn't paying any attention back then but I just assumed that crash wasn't hard to see coming

Right up prior to the crash most people, politicians, media shills, estate agents, economists were all in denial about property being overvalued in this country. The phrase soft landing was used a lot, vested interests and that includes anyone that owns a property were either in denial or being just outright dishonest. people actually thought ireland was different, they still do. We had the biggest property bubble going.

Dan McLaughlin, chief economist Bank of Ireland:

The year 2007 will be another strong one in terms of transactions. We are likely to see something of the order of 85,000 to 90,000 houses built again.

we are in for a period of modest house price inflation - something in the order of 3 per cent per annum in 2007 and 2008.

John O’Sullivan, residential director Lisney:

Growth levels will be single digit. We are predicting 5 per cent for [2007].

Ray Grehan, property developer Glenkerrin Homes:

With the average household now 2.2 people, the anticipated increase in the population will lead to a demand for 45,000 units. This, together with the latent demand in the market, would suggest that the total demand for new units will be in the region of 85,000 units for 2007.

All from The Irish Times: ireland.com/newspaper/proper … 53659.html

“Comical” Austin Hughes, Chief Economist IIB Bank (speaking on 12th May 2006):

I think it is only slightly provocative to suggest that a more pertinent question is to ask why Irish house prices are rising so slowly.

We expect house prices will rise by 10 percent on average in both 2006 and 2007.

There are many, many more of the above. Many of these people are still pulling a living out of it all. Brendan O'Connor was another shill who has been rewarded with a hefty salary from RTE.

The best though is below:

Billythekid19

Cyrus wrote: »

BOI are seeking 1400 voluntary redundancies over the coming years but dont lead the truth get in the way of the headline.

Linkedin job losses in ireland will be in the low 100s if even that.

The bottom line is that it will be extremely difficult for people out of work to find new employment with new hire freezes in a lot of Irish multinationals. The tens of thousands of people who will lose their job in the propped up hospitality sector will seriously struggle to find new employment in the short to medium term. We could be looking at a generation who will either be living with their parents for the rest of their lives or end up renting until they are middle aged.

Marius34

Pelezico wrote: »

I am a numbers man. Those sales are the total sales on register for July and those house numbers are the houses on myhome.ie this morning not sale agreed

Next month we can do it again and see if there is a trend.

More of a "wrong numbers man". I have corrected you few times.
Even if I told we are running around 3000 trans/month, you still coming with your numbers wrong by big margin..

Pelezico wrote: »

Marius..I reckon we will struggle to hit 2000 in July and this will slow over the next few months.

Go check now the number after yesterdays PPR update (it gets updated every week).
It's around 2300 recorded already for July. and there will be lots of added in the coming weeks for July transactions.

MacronvFrugals

yosser hughes wrote: »

Right up prior to the crash most people, politicians, media shills, estate agents, economists were all in denial about property being overvalued in this country. The phrase soft landing was used a lot, vested interests and that includes anyone that owns a property were either in denial or being just outright dishonest. people actually thought ireland was different, they still do. We had the biggest property bubble going.





There are many, many more of the above. Many of these people are still pulling a living out of it all. Brendan O'Connor was another shill who has been rewarded with a hefty salary from RTE.

The best though is below:

Pure gold! thanks for sharing

MacronvFrugals

Who could forget September 2008 Brendan Burgess on RTE -"Irish banks are very well regulated,they dont have direct exposure in terms of loans to these American sub-prime customers"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z2q7bBVAo74

The Belly

Billythekid19 wrote: »

The bottom line is that it will be extremely difficult for people out of work to find new employment with new hire freezes in a lot of Irish multinationals. The tens of thousands of people who will lose their job in the propped up hospitality sector will seriously struggle to find new employment in the short to medium term. We could be looking at a generation who will either be living with their parents for the rest of their lives or end up renting until they are middle aged.

If they are renting into middle age they will be renting for good. I agree with what you have said i believe that will push which ever government is in power to build social housing on a large scale again.

BEdS_83

-€104,950 (-38.88%) €269,950 €165,000

link -> https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/the-castle-castle-street-mohill-leitrim/4354318

Pelezico

yosser hughes wrote: »

Right up prior to the crash most people, politicians, media shills, estate agents, economists were all in denial about property being overvalued in this country. The phrase soft landing was used a lot, vested interests and that includes anyone that owns a property were either in denial or being just outright dishonest. people actually thought ireland was different, they still do. We had the biggest property bubble going.





There are many, many more of the above. Many of these people are still pulling a living out of it all. Brendan O'Connor was another shill who has been rewarded with a hefty salary from RTE.

The best though is below:

I remember those times. Sounds like now too.

1400 job losses..and they are job losses...in the banking industry dismissed as voluntary redundancies so somehow they dont count.

I reckon that poster does not dig what the OP told him.

lalababa

errlloyd wrote: »

I was thinking the same thing. Amazingly, the Indo has an interview with her! Up a hill behind a graveyard. No street lighting.

Life ruining. Residential developments should have anchor tenants like shopping centres do or something. My sister lived in a ghost estate in Roscommon till recently, roughly the same amount of houses but about 5 were occupied. It was pretty dreadful.

https://www.independent.ie/regionals/kerryman/news/forced-to-live-for-nine-years-in-ghost-estate-38360508.html

I know the estate. Some developer or/and his bank have been dithering since the crash. They had them for sale at way too high a price in the bust and never really reduced them enough for someone to take a bite. 10 years waiting for an upturn. Still haven't got it together to clean up the place and sell while prices were okish for sellers in the area. She paid 260k? The owners should have sold them off at 150k and less over the years. There's a few bushy branches encroaching on the entrance that would be taken care of with a chainsaw in 1/2 an hour. Otherwise it's the same as living in a house in the country.....no street lighting there.

Cyrus

Pelezico wrote: »

dismissed as voluntary redundancies so somehow they dont count.

I reckon that poster does not dig what the OP told him.

they arent dismissed as voluntary redundancies, they are voluntary redundancies, and they would have happened COVID or not.

i focus on tightening up your 'statistics' if i were you.

Pelezico

1927 houses are sale agreed in Dublin.

That represents a three month pipeline which seems slightly high.

Worth keeping track of this.

Some of these may appear back on the market as finance and valuation fall through

MacronvFrugals

beauf wrote: »

I think she might have been poorly advised. Putting 180k into a house bought for around 120-200k was madness. You'd never get that back. You'd only do that if you were going to live in for a very long time.

I'd also be wary of estate agents estimates. I've known them to be way off the mark.

Agreed nearly the cost of the home itself.

I think this was supposed to be their long term home but they split up recently and the husband wants to sell so looks like they'll take a hefty hit.

Pelezico

Cyrus wrote: »

they arent dismissed as voluntary redundancies, they are voluntary redundancies, and they would have happened COVID or not.

i focus on tightening up your 'statistics' if i were you.

Ok...so they were going to happen anyway so they dont count..

RTE was the biggest shill in the last boom. As job losses were announced, RTE were careful to say that some or most of the jobs were contractor jobs.

I suppose they did not consider them real jobs. Except..get this ..contractors are usually paid more than the permies so they really did count.

Hulk Hands

Cyrus wrote: »

they arent dismissed as voluntary redundancies, they are voluntary redundancies, and they would have happened COVID or not.

i focus on tightening up your 'statistics' if i were you.

While BOI have had ongoing voluntary redundancy for a while, the recent announcement has come as a surprise to a few in there tbf. They've increased the terms of redundancy upwards by a week per year of service, which is significant, while also increasing the upper limit. It does spell a good bit more urgency. Those losses in the pension fund investment came as a big hit i'd imagine

awec

Hulk Hands wrote: »

While BOI have had ongoing voluntary redundancy for a while, the recent announcement has come as a surprise to a few in there tbf. They've increased the terms of redundancy upwards by a week per year of service, which is significant, while also increasing the upper limit. It does spell a good bit more urgency. Those losses in the pension fund investment came as a big hit i'd imagine

Do you think they'll get the 1400?

The fact they're going with a voluntary stage suggests that they believe there's enough staff ready and willing to jump.

Pelezico

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Agreed nearly the cost of the home itself.

I think this was supposed to be their long term home but they split up recently and the husband wants to sell so looks like they'll take a hefty hit.

The three Ds ...debt, death and divorce.

They should provide real guidance for the scale of downturn.

In Ireland, maybe nit debt but the other two are indicators.


Anyone remember the phrase semi detached couples. A couple separated but could not afford to sell into negative equity.

That phrase is from the nineties in UK.

JimmyVik

Hulk Hands wrote: »

While BOI have had ongoing voluntary redundancy for a while, the recent announcement has come as a surprise to a few in there tbf. They've increased the terms of redundancy upwards by a week per year of service, which is significant, while also increasing the upper limit. It does spell a good bit more urgency. Those losses in the pension fund investment came as a big hit i'd imagine

What terms are they getting?
I know I was in a company before where people got 6 weeks per year worked for voluntary.
Some of them had been there over 10 years.
They were only too happy to take it.
If I got 6 weeks per year id jump at it.

awec

Pelezico wrote: »

Ok...so they were going to happen anyway so they dont count..

RTE was the biggest shill in the last boom. As job losses were announced, RTE were careful to say that some or most of the jobs were contractor jobs.

I suppose they did not consider them real jobs. Except..get this ..contractors are usually paid more than the permies so they really did count.

It's a fairly important distinction to make. Contract workers are only ever supposed to be temporary (that's the whole point) and will always be the first out the door when costs need cut.

They get paid more because they carry the risk of having no contract and therefore no income. Higher risk, higher reward.

awec

JimmyVik wrote: »

What terms are they getting?
I know I was in a company before where people got 6 weeks per year worked for voluntary.
Some of them had been there over 10 years.
They were only too happy to take it.
If I got 6 weeks per year id jump at it.

A good package on VR can literally mean early retirement for those who have worked long enough.

Of course the fact that it's a redundancy means no backfill on the head, so there's still a job lost, but the actual person whose job it was could be heading for a very comfortable life.

Pelezico

awec wrote: »

It's a fairly important distinction to make. Contract workers are only ever supposed to be temporary (that's the whole point) and will always be the first out the door when costs need cut.

They get paid more because they carry the risk of having no contract and therefore no income. Higher risk, higher reward.

The economy does not care about the distinction. If 1400 lose their jobs in BOI, that represents 1400 less paying tax, contractor or not.

But in RTE speak, it matters.

Hulk Hands

awec wrote: »

Do you think they'll get the 1400?

The fact they're going with a voluntary stage suggests that they believe there's enough staff ready and willing to jump.

I'd have to ask but id imagine so, and thats with it not being open to everyone (younger well regarded types might/will have it refused). Plenty of grey in there.

JimmyVik wrote: »

What terms are they getting?
I know I was in a company before where people got 6 weeks per year worked for voluntary.
Some of them had been there over 10 years.
They were only too happy to take it.
If I got 6 weeks per year id jump at it.

Yeah, 4 weeks + the 2 statutory and a new upper limit of 2.5x salary.

JimmyVik

Hulk Hands wrote: »

I'd have to ask but id imagine so, and thats with it not being open to everyone (younger well regarded types might/will have it refused). Plenty of grey in there.



Yeah, 4 weeks + the 2 statutory and a new upper limit of 2.5x salary.

I'll take it

yosser hughes

JimmyVik wrote: »

What terms are they getting?
I know I was in a company before where people got 6 weeks per year worked for voluntary.
Some of them had been there over 10 years.
They were only too happy to take it.
If I got 6 weeks per year id jump at it.

4 weeks per year worked plus statutory; which is two weeks per year I think? That's what I heard anyway

awec

Pelezico wrote: »

The economy does not care about the distinction. If 1400 lose their jobs in BOI, that represents 1400 less paying tax, contractor or not.

But in RTE speak, it matters.

It matters to everyone, because "Company X ends contract of 1400 contractors" is a very different situation to "Company X cuts 1400 permanent jobs".

Contractors knowingly take the risk of having no income at any stage. That's why they get paid a premium, they are supposed to be able to cover themselves when they are not currently in contract. Contractor roles can just disappear even in the good times, it's the very nature of the work.

Neither are good news, but there is a big difference between the two scenarios.

Donald Trump

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Who could forget September 2008 Brendan Burgess on RTE -"Irish banks are very well regulated,they dont have direct exposure in terms of loans to these American sub-prime customers"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z2q7bBVAo74

Actually, technically that (subprime) point was correct, even though he was wrong on virtually everything else. (including the regulation part)


The US crisis was predicated on the back of structured products which repackaged loans that were known to be junk individually. Those were not a feature of the Irish crisis, although you could perhaps argue that similar valuation mistakes were done on loan books in the Irish banks by regulators and the banks themselves

Hubertj

Hulk Hands wrote: »

While BOI have had ongoing voluntary redundancy for a while, the recent announcement has come as a surprise to a few in there tbf. They've increased the terms of redundancy upwards by a week per year of service, which is significant, while also increasing the upper limit. It does spell a good bit more urgency. Those losses in the pension fund investment came as a big hit i'd imagine

It’s not a surprise at all. Banks have had to accelerate digital transformation, essentially doing in a few months what would have been part of a 5 year plan. They will also close branches as part of it. Contractors will not be extended. It is unfortunate but to be expected. I think it will be over subscribed and they will actually get more than 1400 total between FTEs and not extending contracts.

Donald Trump

awec wrote: »

It matters to everyone, because "Company X ends contract of 1400 contractors" is a very different situation to "Company X cuts 1400 permanent jobs".

Contractors knowingly take the risk of having no income at any stage. That's why they get paid a premium, they are supposed to be able to cover themselves when they are not currently in contract. Contractor roles can just disappear even in the good times, it's the very nature of the work.

Neither are good news, but there is a big difference between the two scenarios.

Not to mention that the company can basically say "out the door lads, no work tomorrow" and have no further obligations to the contractors.

Pelezico

Donald Trump wrote: »

Actually, technically that (subprime) point was correct, even though he was wrong on virtually everything else. (including the regulation part)


The US crisis was predicated on the back of structured products which repackaged loans that were known to be junk individually. Those were not a feature of the Irish crisis, although you could perhaps argue that similar valuation mistakes were done on loan books in the Irish banks by regulators and the banks themselves

Brendan did not allow any discussion about house prices on his forum.

He must have had a shed load of property.

Bass Reeves

Hulk Hands wrote: »

I'd have to ask but id imagine so, and thats with it not being open to everyone (younger well regarded types might/will have it refused). Plenty of grey in there.



Yeah, 4 weeks + the 2 statutory and a new upper limit of 2.5x salary.

It would be especially attractive to older staff who came in under the old Bank clerk recruitment from school. I think the retirement age for these was 60. Another factor is if you have worked that long with an employer the redundancy tax free allowance is very generous. If the taxable part was paid in 2021 an employee's on 70k+ could walk away with 150k+.