Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

brisan

Shelga wrote: »

But who is saying it should just be handed to us? No one is arguing that.

Ok, you had no life for 4 years, well done. That's 4 years of your 20s you'll never get back, and no I'm not saying go out and spend all your money on alcohol, but there has to be some leeway for occasional eating out, socialising, seeing a little bit of the world, even if that's just an odd weekend away. I think those things apply to both the 1980s and now. I would crack up if I sat in my living room for 4 years straight.

All people are saying is that it is frustrating and demoralising if you are on a middling salary of say €40-45k in Dublin, you pay €700 a month in rent, you cut the rest of your expenses down to the bone, and say you save €800-1000 a month. The bank will only lend you €158000. Say a pretty basic 2 bed place in Dublin costs €260k. It will take you 9.5 years to save a deposit, plus come up with an extra €5k for stamp duty and expenses. For all of this 9 years you can have no major expenses, no holidays, no unexpected large bills.

Now, obviously people would aim to earn more as the years go by. But what if you start off on €23k, and work your way up to €45k after 5-10 years? I'm sure this isn't a million miles away from what teachers and nurses earn.

What kind of life is that? There is chasm between what I have just outlined, and "expecting a house to be handed to you." The truth is, it's near impossible to do, without a partner or family help, whereas my parents could easily secure a mortgage on 1 income, and the house was about twice my father's annual salary. You cannot compare the two.

Anyway, I'm out, these conversations go nowhere.

We never thought that
We left that till we reached our 40s ,original mortgage paid and kids nearly reared.
Youa are doing now what we left till our 40s-50s and that was our choice,while you have chosen the opposite route and thats entirely up to you.

brisan

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

I'm loving this.

1 punt = 1.27 Euros.

24500 punt = 31,115 Euros
18k = 22860 Euros

Inflation from 1982 to 2020 is 150%.

So in current terms.



Repayments for your 3 bed semi-D would be roughly 800 quid in 2020.
There are about around 15 3 bed semi-D's for sale under 80k in the entire country.

A 4th year apprentice now days makes roughly 35k a year.
They can borrow 122k today plus deposit, lets say with a 25% deposit like yourself, that's a 150k house. That would be a manageable 600 quid a month mortgage for a person earning that income.

Would you sell your house to a 4th year apprentice for 150k? Twice what you paid for it, inflation taken into account.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say you wouldn't.

Well my wages have gone up by 700-800 % in that time so I dont think 150% inflation is right.
A pint was about 60 p if I remember right its now over 5 euro.

brisan

Bass Reeves wrote: »

How many people now that buy houses are willing to move into them with bare floor and walls, no tiles timber flooring or carpets,no painting done, no on-suite just one bathroom, no down stairs toilet ( I know it a disable access regulation now), 50/50 chance no kitchen and often very little in the way of untensiles, definately no fitted wardrobes, while deal single glazed windows, maybe a washing machine and a small fridge and icebox no freezer, 2nd hand furniture, curtains on one bedroom.....if you were lucky if not a sheet tacked up there. At the time over 50% of new houses had no oil just a backboiler on the front fireplace. Maybe a lawn at the front of the house definately not at the back. Over the next 2-5 years when you got a burst of money from overtime you did all these things.





Na just when they start working daughter is only teaching two years no permanent job, yet even spend a year working in Dublaaan paid 12K for a car two months ago had it in savings and still a bit left. Now she is no hermit but neither is she stupid with money.





It the same with all those talking about pre 2007 buyers and negative equity most are on 0.75-1.5% trackers.



It was not easy back then either there was no avacoda and toast either. Neither was there stags and hen parties that lasted 2-3 days, weddings were a one evening affair again not a 2-3 day affair. There was no 3-4 weekends away in hotels there might be one in a tent in Lisdoonvarna, No take away latte, you made your flask in the morning, nor lunch out 2-3 time a week, you bought your sambo's to work and college as well. You might go to a chipper once a week and to a Gaa social one a year but eating out was not a regular event. There was no year out in Australia or South America and arriving back broke say where my house.

In other words there was different priorities.




I give 10-1 against your kids not buying a house it may not be easy but they will not have a sense of entitlement.



Owning you own house is a not wealth. you always need somewhere to live. its real advantage is when you reach retirement age and no mortgage it reduces your outgoing significient.



Single people did not own there own house back then either unless well into there 30's



Its a two may issue I say




The big difference between now and the 1980's/early 90's back then single people in there 20's and 30's seldom bought houses either. They could not access the loan required either and that was outside Dublin. It was generally couple married or getting married that bought houses. A single person would be in there 40's before they could buy a house.

What he said .
Exactly


I was at maybe 20 stags in my early mid 20s
Not one involved a night away
A taxi home was the limit.

Pelezico

Springy Turf wrote: »

I am trying to explain that not everyone is in your son's position, and your response is how great your son's position is...

I can only consider my own position...or my son's position.

Trumping out zome thesis that not buying has a cost must be rebutted.

brisan

awec wrote: »

Redecorating one room at a time? I would bet that almost every single first time buyer does this.

Have you ever met or spoken to someone who has bought a house?

Go to some of the threads about the new build estates
They all want the names of tilers ,flooring companies ,furniture companies before they move in .
If its just 2 of you why do you need 3 bedrooms decorated and floored immediately

The Belly

brisan wrote: »

What he said .
Exactly


I was at maybe 20 stags in my early mid 20s
Not one involved a night away
A taxi home was the limit.

I dont think they build new houses in estates with the option to buy them unfinished and do the work as you earn which excludes most people in cities.Probably not allowed to with new building regs although im not up to speed with them.

House prices are not a problem if you live in the countryside.

brisan

Cantstandsya wrote: »

There is a good book, "Bull**** Jobs", it goes into all this. Basically, our society severely undervalues the things it needs most while overvaluing the things it needs the least.

The idea that nurses and teachers should clear out of Dublin is so stupid that the fact that it actually is "common sense", which a previous poster ascerted and I have to agree with, shows that this is a broken society.

Nurse 40k
Computer games programmer 80 k
Says it all about the world we live in

brisan

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The effect of pumping money into the economy is inflation.
With inflation rising we can expect house prices to rise too.
House prices havent given in at all since January, despite recession, Covid and jobs lost

You do know the economy is on life support due to the Government pumping billions into it.

Hulk Hands

brisan wrote: »

Nurse 40k
Computer games programmer 80 k
Says it all about the world we live in

Yawn. Unique skills will always command high pay. How many computer game programmers do you know?

Springy Turf

Pelezico wrote: »

I can only consider my own position...or my son's position.

I am sorry for your lack of imagination, or ability to put yourself in someone else shoes.

Trumping out zome thesis that not buying has a cost must be rebutted.

But it does if you are paying rent.

woodchuck

Springy Turf wrote: »

Sure, you might have people in their 20s, happy to live with their parents for 1-2 years while the dust hopefully settles. That's assuming the current uncertainty is over in a year or two, and you can get the credit you need to beat cash purchasers / value investors to the punch. But that is just one set of circumstances - what about the others I mentioned?

Exactly. I'm mid-30s, my partner and I are engaged and recently went sale agreed on a house. We're keen to get ON with our lives. Moving home to our parents to wait things out for a couple of years is not in any way appealing to us at this stage of our lives. Frankly, it sounds like a nightmare at our age. We're also not keen to continue paying stupid amounts on rent and we're becoming increasingly frustrated with apartment living.

I know there's a very good chance that the house we're buying will be worth a lot less in a few years. But I don't care. We're buying it to live in long-term, not as an investment. And the supply for houses in our price range in the area we want is barely a trickle - it'll probably be non-existent soon enough. You could wait for the market to bottom out, but there could be nothing left to buy.

brisan

Marius34 wrote: »

What it was said, that in previous years there were small number of myhome property price reduction, only 20 decrease per week, but currently the adds starts to reduce price 5 times more, to 100 per week.
As this is 5 times in difference, it just simply suspicious that something is missing here. As many stories in here provided has false information, some of the posters I have correct.
In this case, I have never followed myhome add price reduction, so don't know what's the real story. But now that the one who reported those stats does not want to tell where he gets past data what it used to be, I think it may be made up numbers.

Here are the latest figures
https://www.myhome.ie/pricechanges
I have no idea where one would get historical figures.

Hulk Hands

Springy Turf wrote: »

Even if you agree with those who say the whole house of cards will fall apart - it seems very hard to predict when that might happen. Despite the economic turmoil, the stock market is in rude health. I have been amazed to see stocks just steadily climb for years, and now continue during this pandemic.

I don't disagree with the rest of your post but the stock market overheating is almost solely down to the stimulus package. The FED have pumped near $5 Trillion into the economy and there's similar if smaller packages in Europe. There's conflicting opinions on how it'll all play out, especially for the common man, but it's what's propping up the market at present

MacronvFrugals

Hulk Hands wrote: »

I don't disagree with the rest of your post but the stock market overheating is almost solely down to the stimulus package. The FED have pumped near $5 Trillion into the economy and there's similar if smaller packages in Europe. There's conflicting opinions on how it'll all play out, especially for the common man, but it's what's propping up the market at present

Tesla currently trading at over 10x the price of Volkswagen seems like the Fed's presses are just pumping the market.

brisan

brisan wrote: »

Here are the latest figures
https://www.myhome.ie/pricechanges
I have no idea where one would get historical figures.

Some haircut on the Malahide semi-d, down €125k today.


https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/11-sonesta-malahide-dublin/4446097

Pelezico

woodchuck wrote: »

Exactly. I'm mid-30s, my partner and I are engaged and recently went sale agreed on a house. We're keen to get ON with our lives. Moving home to our parents to wait things out for a couple of years is not in any way appealing to us at this stage of our lives. Frankly, it sounds like a nightmare at our age. We're also not keen to continue paying stupid amounts on rent and we're becoming increasingly frustrated with apartment living.

I know there's a very good chance that the house we're buying will be worth a lot less in a few years. But I don't care. We're buying it to live in long-term, not as an investment. And the supply for houses in our price range in the area we want is barely a trickle - it'll probably be non-existent soon enough. You could wait for the market to bottom out, but there could be nothing left to buy.

It is worth asking for a reduction..you have nothing to lose.

Do a gazunder at the last minute on valuation grounds. They can only say no.

As the guy in Dirty Harry said ..."I gots to know man"

brisan

awec wrote: »

A good package on VR can literally mean early retirement for those who have worked long enough.

Of course the fact that it's a redundancy means no backfill on the head, so there's still a job lost, but the actual person whose job it was could be heading for a very comfortable life.

I though seriously about taking VR 4 years ago ,but now at 60 yrs of age i AM DEFINITELY taking it
5 years gross pay in the hand after tax,a good AVC pot and a 44k pension whats to think about.
I would say a lot of the long term people in BOI will jump at the chance

Markitron

cisk wrote: »

Some haircut on the Malahide semi-d, down €125k today.


https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/11-sonesta-malahide-dublin/4446097

I know its a nice area and all, but paying even that much for a house in that state thats 2 minutes from Swords seems mental to me.

awec

brisan wrote: »

Go to some of the threads about the new build estates
They all want the names of tilers ,flooring companies ,furniture companies before they move in .
If its just 2 of you why do you need 3 bedrooms decorated and floored immediately

Do you know how much it costs to carpet a bedroom? In the grand scheme of things it's a completely and utterly irrelevant cost, of no consequence whatsoever.

Same as your fixation with stag dos. Another complete irrelevance.

It wouldn't matter how frugal someone is, even if they live a life of sheer abject misery. It wouldn't matter if they were willing to move into a house that has literally nothing in it, concrete walls and plaster walls. It wouldn't matter if they never left their house for any sort of social occassion.

They still wouldn't be able to buy a 3 bed semi on their apprenticeship wages like you were.

awec

brisan wrote: »

I though seriously about taking VR 4 years ago ,but now at 60 yrs of age i AM DEFINITELY taking it
5 years gross pay in the hand after tax,a good AVC pot and a 44k pension whats to think about.
I would say a lot of the long term people in BOI will jump at the chance

I don't work in a bank but there has been VR a few times in places I've worked and every single time the number of people applying has been a lot larger than the number of redundancies available.

People actually get seriously pissed off if they get refused it!

brisan

Bass Reeves wrote: »

It would be especially attractive to older staff who came in under the old Bank clerk recruitment from school. I think the retirement age for these was 60. Another factor is if you have worked that long with an employer the redundancy tax free allowance is very generous. If the taxable part was paid in 2021 an employee's on 70k+ could walk away with 150k+.

Depending on salary and length of service (SCSB) you could get 200k tax free plus statutory tax free .
So after 40 years you could have 248k tax free if your package amounted to this

Graham

cisk wrote: »

Some haircut on the Malahide semi-d, down €125k today.


https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/11-sonesta-malahide-dublin/4446097

All today too.

6 Aug €695k
6 Aug €675k
6 Aug €575k

If it keeps up, they'll be paying someone to take it off their hands by tea time.

Alternatively, someone fecked up the listing. If I were the vendor I wouldn't be too impressed, on the other hand it's obviously getting attention so maybe it's deliberate.

woodchuck

Pelezico wrote: »

It is worth asking for a reduction..you have nothing to lose.

Do a gazunder at the last minute on valuation grounds. They can only say no.

As the guy in Dirty Harry said ..."I gots to know man"

Well, presumably we risk losing the sale. There were 2 other bidders, so they could just go to the next highest offer if we threatened to pull out now. I don't want to play games. We're willing to pay the price we offered - it'd be different if we were actually serious about pulling out if we didn't get a reduction, but us asking would be purely out of greed. What happens if they call our bluff?

awec

woodchuck wrote: »

Well, presumably we risk losing the sale. There were 2 other bidders, so they could just go to the next highest offer if we threatened to pull out now. I don't want to play games. We're willing to pay the price we offered - it'd be different if we were actually serious about pulling out if we didn't get a reduction, but us asking would be purely out of greed. What happens if they call our bluff?

It would depend how much you playing games pisses them off.

It's certainly not greed to try reduce the price, you want to pay as little as you can get away with obviously, but the time to do that is before you go sale agreed. After sale agreed is playing games. How would you react if the seller came back after you went sale agreed and asked for more money?

Pelezico

woodchuck wrote: »

Well, presumably we risk losing the sale. There were 2 other bidders, so they could just go to the next highest offer if we threatened to pull out now. I don't want to play games. We're willing to pay the price we offered - it'd be different if we were actually serious about pulling out if we didn't get a reduction, but us asking would be purely out of greed. What happens if they call our bluff?

Well, I dont consider financial prudence to be greed. There is always another house.

woodchuck

awec wrote: »

It would depend how much you playing games pisses them off.

It's not greed to try reduce the price, but the time to do that is before you go sale agreed. After sale agreed is playing games. How would you react if the seller came back after you went sale agreed and asked for more money?

Yeah we're sale agreed, survey done, valuation done, contracts in. I can't imagine asking for a reduction at this stage!! And we wouldn't have asked before we went sale agreed either - like I said, there were 2 other bidders nibbling at our heels.

javaboy

Graham wrote: »

All today too.

6 Aug €695k
6 Aug €675k
6 Aug €575k

If it keeps up, they'll be paying someone to take it off their hands by tea time.

Alternatively, someone fecked up the listing. If I were the vendor I wouldn't be too impressed, on the other hand it's obviously getting attention so maybe it's deliberate.

Yeah it's a mistake for sure. The same EA listed a different Malahide house at 695 today which looks a lot more like a 695 property.

brisan

awec wrote: »

Do you know how much it costs to carpet a bedroom? In the grand scheme of things it's a completely and utterly irrelevant cost, of no consequence whatsoever.

Same as your fixation with stag dos. Another complete irrelevance.

It wouldn't matter how frugal someone is, even if they live a life of sheer abject misery. It wouldn't matter if they were willing to move into a house that has literally nothing in it, concrete walls and plaster walls. It wouldn't matter if they never left their house for any sort of social occassion.

They still wouldn't be able to buy a 3 bed semi on their apprenticeship wages like you were.

As I said I know 2 who have
Saved hard for 2 years with their partner and got their house.
Granted they qualified and went on to be kept on on 80k jobs but it can be done

Pelezico

awec wrote: »

It would depend how much you playing games pisses them off.

It's certainly not greed to try reduce the price, you want to pay as little as you can get away with obviously, but the time to do that is before you go sale agreed. After sale agreed is playing games. How would you react if the seller came back after you went sale agreed and asked for more money?

This is called a gazunder. In the current market, gazundering is quite acceptable.

Look at those falls today on myhome.ie.

Cyrus

Graham wrote: »

All today too.

6 Aug €695k
6 Aug €675k
6 Aug €575k

If it keeps up, they'll be paying someone to take it off their hands by tea time.

Alternatively, someone fecked up the listing. If I were the vendor I wouldn't be too impressed, on the other hand it's obviously getting attention so maybe it's deliberate.

it looks relatively poor value at 575k so im sure the rest was a mistake.