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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Graham

Continued from here:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058041687

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Pelezico

beauf wrote: »

It makes comparing last year and this year and pre and post Lockdown largely useless.

The only figures worth looking at are the ones post lockdown.

I am a numbers man. Those sales are the total sales on register for July and those house numbers are the houses on myhome.ie this morning not sale agreed

Next month we can do it again and see if there is a trend.

JimmyVik

Markitron wrote: »

Out of curiosity, what were people saying in 2008/09? I wasn't paying any attention back then but I just assumed that crash wasn't hard to see coming

Same people saying prices are going to go down dont buy now, were saying the same thing then.

Same people saying buy because prices are going to go up, were saying the same thing then too.

You should read them. They are excellent. And just go to show you the reasons that we all think things are going to happen, dont actually turn out to be the reasons, even if they do happen. Make you realize that myself and everyone else who give a prediction, is only guessing at the end of the day. But you would think some are economists, psychic even, the way they are so cock sure that they are right with their predictions.
If they are that good, none of them will be posting here in 5 years. They will be using that skill and sipping Martinis in Barbados with their riches from such skill

beauf

Pelezico wrote: »

Maybe...maybe not. This might be the new normal.

None of this relates to our archaic sales system. I forgot to include sale agreed.

So ten months to sell a house.

It makes comparing last year and this year and pre and post Lockdown largely useless.

The only figures worth looking at are the ones post lockdown.

beauf

landofthetree wrote: »

Plus 20% of all adults either unemployed or on 305euro pandemic payment.

Probably only a small % of these were potential buyers.

I'm just saying you couldn't do normal business. Everything stopped or slowed to a crawl.

Pelezico

Graham wrote: »

Do you think the country being locked down for several months may have skewed the figures slightly?

Maybe...maybe not. This might be the new normal.

None of this relates to our archaic sales system. I forgot to include sale agreed.

So ten months to sell a house.

Graham

Pelezico wrote: »

Based in latest sales for july, it takes on average 7 months to sell a house in Dublin.

4521 houses on myhome.ie 683 sold in Dublin Juy 2020.

Hardly flying off the shelves.

This statistic may be worth revisiting from time to time

Do you think the country being locked down for several months may have skewed the figures slightly?

landofthetree

beauf wrote: »

Look at the context. Viewings next to impossible, lots of banks, solicitors and business not fully open for business. That alone is going to slow sales.

Plus 20% of all adults either unemployed or on 305euro pandemic payment.

beauf

Pelezico wrote: »

Based in latest sales for july, it takes on average 7 months to sell a house in Dublin.

4521 houses on myhome.ie 683 sold in Dublin Juy 2020.

Hardly flying off the shelves.

This statistic may be worth revisiting from time to time

Look at the context. Viewings next to impossible, lots of banks, solicitors and business not fully open for business. That alone is going to slow sales.

beauf

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

A lady that lives close to me got her house valued last year 390k - its beautiful and had 180k worth of work including a double extension and redecoration.

The same estate agent told her 320k is the price now last week.

Thats D7 though because i know other posters were mentioning other areas are doing better than ever.

Personally i'm looking at D11 and prices have dropped 5% in the last 3 months according to myhome.ie

I think she might have been poorly advised. Putting 180k into a house bought for around 120-200k was madness. You'd never get that back. You'd only do that if you were going to live in for a very long time.

I'd also be wary of estate agents estimates. I've known them to be way off the mark.

Marius34

Pelezico wrote: »

Based in latest sales for july, it takes on average 7 months to sell a house in Dublin.

4521 houses on myhome.ie 683 sold in Dublin Juy 2020.

Hardly flying off the shelves.

This statistic may be worth revisiting from time to time

We don't know July numbers yet in first place. Once most of it will be recorded by begging of September it will be over 900

Marius34

Iceman29 wrote: »

Suspicious in what way?

What it was said, that in previous years there were small number of myhome property price reduction, only 20 decrease per week, but currently the adds starts to reduce price 5 times more, to 100 per week.
As this is 5 times in difference, it just simply suspicious that something is missing here. As many stories in here provided has false information, some of the posters I have correct.
In this case, I have never followed myhome add price reduction, so don't know what's the real story. But now that the one who reported those stats does not want to tell where he gets past data what it used to be, I think it may be made up numbers.

Markitron

JimmyVik wrote: »

I love going back and reading property threads from 10 years ago.
Great fun.

Out of curiosity, what were people saying in 2008/09? I wasn't paying any attention back then but I just assumed that crash wasn't hard to see coming

JimmyVik

Springy Turf wrote: »

The amount of bar stool speculation in this thread is staggering. I am posting as a reminder to myself and others that most if the opinions here are based on fairly shaky grounds.

Based on what I’ve been reading from the ESRI and other sources, the current uncertainty is still massive. But it’s uncertainty, not a guarantee of doomsday.

I love going back and reading property threads from 10 years ago.
Great fun.

Cyrus

Pelezico wrote: »

Based in latest sales for july, it takes on average 7 months to sell a house in Dublin.

4521 houses on myhome.ie 683 sold in Dublin Juy 2020.

Hardly flying off the shelves.

This statistic may be worth revisiting from time to time

And how much of that 7 months is our archaic sales process ?

Pelezico

Based in latest sales for july, it takes on average 7 months to sell a house in Dublin.

4521 houses on myhome.ie 683 sold in Dublin Juy 2020.

Hardly flying off the shelves.

This statistic may be worth revisiting from time to time

Iceman29

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

The guy who everyone is responding to bought his house in the 80s. There was no WiFi or HD TV's back then. You haven't been able to buy non HD TV's for years. I bought a 40" Samsung TV about 10 years ago for 700 euro and it still works fine. Hardly excessive luxury there. How does that one purchase stop me buying a house? As for WiFi every broadband package nowadays comes with it. You really think the reason people can't afford a house is because they bought a HD TV at some stage in the past 15 years and they spend money on a broadband package. Some of the arguements in this thread are seriously stupid.

You have me misunderstood, I never said that's the reason why young people cant afford houses. What i was agreeing with is that the young people now can't live without their instant luxuries.

I fully agree that its not a fancy TV or their daily coffees that is stopping them from buying but my god young people don't like to slug it out these days.

AlmightyCushion

Iceman29 wrote: »

No i meant, sleeping on a mattress on the floor and using borrowed garden chairs as sitting room furniture while watchin a TV that (god forbid wasn't HD ) with no WIFI etc.... you get the picture now Awec.

The guy who everyone is responding to bought his house in the 80s. There was no WiFi or HD TV's back then. You haven't been able to buy non HD TV's for years. I bought a 40" Samsung TV about 10 years ago for 700 euro and it still works fine. Hardly excessive luxury there. How does that one purchase stop me buying a house? As for WiFi every broadband package nowadays comes with it. You really think the reason people can't afford a house is because they bought a HD TV at some stage in the past 15 years and they spend money on a broadband package. Some of the arguements in this thread are seriously stupid.

Iceman29

Marius34 wrote: »

I asked already, where do you get those stats what was few years ago? You keep repeating your stats, but not answering.
It does sound suspicions, that there are such a big change in trends.

Suspicious in what way?

Iceman29

awec wrote: »

Redecorating one room at a time? I would bet that almost every single first time buyer does this.

Have you ever met or spoken to someone who has bought a house?

No i meant, sleeping on a mattress on the floor and using borrowed garden chairs as sitting room furniture while watchin a TV that (god forbid wasn't HD ) with no WIFI etc.... you get the picture now Awec.

hometruths

Springy Turf wrote: »

The amount of bar stool speculation in this thread is staggering. I am posting as a reminder to myself and others that most if the opinions here are based on fairly shaky grounds.

Based on what I’ve been reading from the ESRI and other sources, the current uncertainty is still massive. But it’s uncertainty, not a guarantee of doomsday.

what on earth is an internet discussion forum for if not bar stool speculation?

Particularly when the pubs are shut!

Springy Turf

The amount of bar stool speculation in this thread is staggering. I am posting as a reminder to myself and others that most if the opinions here are based on fairly shaky grounds.

Based on what I’ve been reading from the ESRI and other sources, the current uncertainty is still massive. But it’s uncertainty, not a guarantee of doomsday.

Hubertj

Pelezico wrote: »

There is always somewhere to live.

Is there always somewhere to live? It doesn’t seem so. Whatever about supply and demand there always seems to be a requirement or need for housing no matter who to pay for it. Thats not good.

fliball123

smurgen wrote: »

Commercial property is finished. The cost of labour in building is about to come way down. Labour supply will be increased massively.

yeah but you cant have it both ways it also means banks will not lend for this? So where is the money coming from if we are all so broke and everything is going to the sh1tter who is going to have the money to build in the amounts that are needed?

lomb

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Deflation can exist even when the government is printing money.

From what i understand here in Europe and US we are talking about printing lots more money than before and pump it into the system to keep things going.

This is a risky dynamic in the long term as the currency will lose a lot of its value

It may not though if labour doesn't increase . With a net loss of jobs due to AI the reduced need for labour is deflationary. Money could go into stock market or bonds for government spending. Government hasn't increased my wages in 20 years and in fact reduced it in crash( dentist)

smurgen

fliball123 wrote: »

no way not unless there is a massive building initiative and I mean huge

Commercial property is finished. The cost of labour in building is about to come way down. Labour supply will be increased massively.

lomb

I think there is 5 years of deflation or more. Reasons are
End of business cycle= loss of demand for labour
Corona = Same
Higher taxes due to Corona= Same
Ai / technologisation of society = Same
Aging population less keen to spend
Younger population paying too much to service rent or mortgages versus historical norms ( sure things were tigjt for a few years but wages inflated meaning the mortgage was peanuts ) that will no longer happen
Building costs Leveling or declining due to reduction in demand

fliball123

smurgen wrote: »

No we don't. We're facing into a prolonged deflation period. I stand by my claim at the start of the pandemic that we're facing medium and long term falls in property prices.I stand by my claim that prices will be lower for at least ten years.

no way not unless there is a massive building initiative and I mean huge

smurgen

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Japan has a deflation, that's the opposite to inflation
You are right, that's what happens when there is a deflation. Prices drop
Here in Ireland we are looking at the opposite dynamic

No we don't. We're facing into a prolonged deflation period. I stand by my claim at the start of the pandemic that we're facing medium and long term falls in property prices.I stand by my claim that prices will be lower for at least ten years.

Dolbhad

Really surprised at how crazy the market is in Cork. We only starting looking again recently as off the covid payment and most areas recently up for sale on daft are already sale agreed.

Some Auctioneers have said what they price was when it hits asking etc.

fliball123

Pelezico wrote: »

There is always somewhere to live.

Well same goes with Dublin there are places to live