Snow / Ice warning Mon 21 pm to Tues 22 Jan 2019

JanuarySnowstor · 19-01-2019 8:47pm #1

Models are firming up on a significant risk of snow for this period. At the moment nothing disruptive looks likely but certainly hilly areas should see some white gold!! While we wait for the beast from the east not a bad appetiser..

kod87 · 19-01-2019 8:55pm

I think it says everything about this winter where a brief period of wet hill snow or sleet gets its own thread.

edit: not criticising JS on the thread, just bemoaning our sh!te winter so far.

JanuarySnowstor · 19-01-2019 8:58pm

Doesn't look like wet snow to me....more the real deal. It may not stick though after such a mild Winter

munsterlegend · 19-01-2019 8:59pm

These events from the Atlantic usually get watered down closer the time save for very high ground so wouldn’t be expecting too much.

Rebelbrowser · 19-01-2019 9:06pm

kod87 wrote: »

I think it says everything about this winter where a brief period of wet hill snow or sleet gets it's own thread

Such events always get their own thread. It's only fun. Those of us interested can focus now on this event for a few days and hopefully by the time Wednesday comes then there will be better on the horizon. If you have no interest, just avoid this thread. Well done JS.

JanuarySnowstor · 19-01-2019 9:12pm

Thanks rebel. Looks like Cork could be poised late Monday. I think there's a fair risk of snow falling to even low levels tbh and would expect Met Eireann to go yellow tomorrow

konman · 19-01-2019 9:47pm

The GFS has been fairly consistent with this for the last 4 days, I haven't checked today but Icon and Arpege were saying no.

Andrew00 · 19-01-2019 11:09pm

Wet snow and sleet

SEPT 23 1989 · 19-01-2019 11:13pm

Andrew00 wrote: »

Wet snow and sleet

We need those pellets back again

at that start look a bit sh1t but by jaysus do they mount up

Snowbiee21 · 19-01-2019 11:14pm

Andrew00 wrote: »

Wet snow and sleet

You going to back this up

Ilyushin76 · 19-01-2019 11:27pm

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

You going to back this up

Don't question our expert weather chart analyzer;)

EdgeCase · 19-01-2019 11:29pm

Unless it's combined with a serious cold snap, I would doubt it'll be enough to be disruptive.

JCX BXC · 19-01-2019 11:33pm

kod87 wrote: »

I think it says everything about this winter where a brief period of wet hill snow or sleet gets its own thread.

I don't agree with you here at all, any Irish winter would get such a thread. It says more about our climate!

M.T. Cranium · 19-01-2019 11:34pm

Also, some heavy hail showers with thunder quite possible, as well as scattered 1-3 cm falls of snow, thickness values support frozen precip down to sea level (516 dm embedded near core of cold air mass will arrive Tuesday morning, dissipates over northwest Ireland but sub-522 for everybody for a time).

An Ri rua · 19-01-2019 11:41pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Also, some heavy hail showers with thunder quite possible, as well as scattered 1-3 cm falls of snow, thickness values support frozen precip down to sea level (516 dm embedded near core of cold air mass will arrive Tuesday morning, dissipates over northwest Ireland but sub-522 for everybody for a time).

Not unlike the December 10th 2017 snow we had in Laois and Offaly so.
A nice appetiser!

je551e · 19-01-2019 11:41pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

I don't agree with you here at all, any Irish winter would get such a thread. It says more about our climate!

Agreed , This isn’t met eireann it’s a weather forum to talk about weather , don’t post much but follow all the time , people seem to have forgotten what this is . A weather Forum

Davaeo09 · 19-01-2019 11:46pm

If it would just intensify slightly to be more widespread

Although no one can deny Cork their fun after the "snowshield" fiascos

An Ri rua · 20-01-2019 12:00am

je551e wrote: »

JCX BXC wrote: »

I don't agree with you here at all, any Irish winter would get such a thread. It says more about our climate!

Agreed , This isn’t met eireann it’s a weather forum to talk about weather , don’t post much but follow all the time , people seem to have forgotten what this is . A weather Forum

'Weather it will or weather it won't snow' forum

JCX BXC · 20-01-2019 12:25am

Davaeo09 wrote: »

If it would just intensify slightly to be more widespread

Although no one can deny Cork their fun after the "snowshield" fiascos

Snowshield my 'arse', since I joined boards Cork have achieved much more snow than I have in West Clare.

Rebelbrowser · 20-01-2019 12:38am

See above. In my experience of these north westerly snow events any snow (as opposed to rain) usually falls around 6 or 7am so this chart might be accurate.

Snowbiee21 · 20-01-2019 12:40am

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

See above. In my experience of these north westerly snow events any snow (as opposed to rain) usually falls around 6 or 7am so this chart might be accurate.

East coast snow shield. Lol

mickger844posts · 20-01-2019 12:43am

Conditions looking favorable for snow late Monday into Tuesday across most of the country. 850 temps fine, Air Temps fine and the all important Dew points fine.
If you get precipitation likely it will be snow. Considering what we have suffered the Winter so far well worth a thread of its own i feel.

Marengo · 20-01-2019 12:43am

Even if it's hill snow it mightn't be a bad omen.

Hill snow around 19th Jan 2009. Followed by a cold, snowy first half of February in the east. Hill snow between Christmas and New Year 1990..followed by more general snowfall in January and February 1991. Off the top of my head.

SleetAndSnow · 20-01-2019 12:48am

I think the difference between the Cork snow shield |(which mostly affects the city really) and the others is that it often shows snow from waterford to kerry, but theres a gap around Cork City area and we don't get any!

. Just the awkward area. we aren't exactly at the coast but we aren't in the middle either. Too far south for the north snow events, when it comes from the north east they go through waterford and continue that direction down the coast etc.

. South east winds really are the best bet for us to get snow down here I think but again im still learning so im not sure.

We are also a low enough lying city, hence marsh from Irish, which doesnt help either.

Donegal Storm · 20-01-2019 2:45am

Long sea track north westerlies usually mean hail and sleet with any lying snow confined to 300m+, might be the odd covering lower down but it'll quickly turn to mush once the sun rises. Still, at least it'll be interesting to get a dynamic day's weather after all the stagnant nothingness of the past month

JCX BXC · 20-01-2019 3:04am

Is that what they normally mean with low air temperatures and low 850 hPa's such as forecast?

I hear this line alot, but NW'rlys are not normally as cold (it's not uncommon though).

On a personal view, I think snow is on the wrong side of marginal for many areas tomorrow, as rainfall will precede the snow making for a moist ground level and wet surfaces unhelpful for snow to settle on.

Donegal Storm · 20-01-2019 3:16am

850hPa temps are nearly always a degree or two warmer than what the GFS forecasts a few days out in these setups, the ECMWF is only showing -6C. With a long sea track there'll be significant mixing at the lowest levels so I'd expect the usual affair of hail showers on the north and west coasts turning to sleety snow across Tyrone, Cavan etc. Might be a brief early morning covering in parts but I find borderline north westerlies more a nuisance than anything

Rebelbrowser · 20-01-2019 9:41am

Donegal Storm wrote: »

850hPa temps are nearly always a degree or two warmer than what the GFS forecasts a few days out in these setups, the ECMWF is only showing -6C. With a long sea track there'll be significant mixing at the lowest levels so I'd expect the usual affair of hail showers on the north and west coasts turning to sleety snow across Tyrone, Cavan etc. Might be a brief early morning covering in parts but I find borderline north westerlies more a nuisance than anything

ECM looks like -8s too to me?

downwiththatsor · 20-01-2019 9:50am

Donegal Storm wrote: »

850hPa temps are nearly always a degree or two warmer than what the GFS forecasts a few days out in these setups, the ECMWF is only showing -6C. With a long sea track there'll be significant mixing at the lowest levels so I'd expect the usual affair of hail showers on the north and west coasts turning to sleety snow across Tyrone, Cavan etc. Might be a brief early morning covering in parts but I find borderline north westerlies more a nuisance than anything

Ecm shows a dusting by Tuesday morning. See attached
Euro 4 also shows accumulated snow

Gaoth Laidir · 20-01-2019 10:39am

It looks like a very brief window for low-level snow in the northwest and north overnight Monday and up to dawn Tuesday. After that it should turn more marginal.

The source air is currently coming off New Foundland and will have a 3000-km sea track to reach us. This sounding for Goose Bay at 12Z yesterday gives an idea, so a frigid airmass that will modify fairly quickly. The ECM shows thicknesses here just on the cusp by 06Z Tuesday morning, so people in the northwest and north midlands should wake up to a dusting. Later in the morning it will turn the wrong side of marginal as heights build from the west.

2019011912.71816.skewt.parc.gif

JanuarySnowstor · 20-01-2019 10:46am

I don't agree with that Gaoth the gfs is showing the coldest uppers over us 9am to midday rather than early morning. Also the southwest looks quite snowy to me over higher ground. Places like West Cork could do well imo

Gaoth Laidir · 20-01-2019 10:50am

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I don't agree with that Gaoth the gfs is showing the coldest uppers over us 9am to midday rather than early morning. Also the southwest looks quite snowy to me over higher ground. Places like West Cork could do well imo

I'm talking about low-level snow.

YanSno · 20-01-2019 11:28am

Low level snow most likely from Tuesday morning 4am - 9am after that sleet or hail. Precipitation looks confined, North West most likely to see a dusting

Meteorite58 · 20-01-2019 11:49am

It would seem to me not much if any snow from the fronts as they passe over on Monday, except perhaps for the highest ground in the NW and then after that the colder more unstable air mass follows with embedded troughs from the NW introducing plenty of showers form later Monday into Tues some of which may produce thunder around coasts. Atm looks like a rain, hail and sleet mix for the most part and better chance of snow showers the further North you go and the higher elevation, snow settling on hills and mountains for the day. The NW looks to get a decent amount of snow being under the coldest air mass.

Close to wind warning territory on Monday for a few hours along Atlantic coastal counties.

Windy Tues along coasts

The Fronts dropping between 5 - 15mm rain along Atlantic coastal counties, less further inland.

Bitter cold on Monday and Tues with a considerable windchill.

esposito · 20-01-2019 11:49am

YanSno wrote: »

Low level snow most likely from Tuesday morning 4am - 9am after that sleet or hail. Precipitation looks confined, North West most likely to see a dusting

Well I hope you’re proved wrong and we get a nice surprise in the east Tuesday morning

downwiththatsor · 20-01-2019 12:08pm

Latest Euro 4 out to 6AM Tuesday

Gonzo · 20-01-2019 12:23pm

very, little if any lying snow is expected in the east, other areas probably more like wet snow falling at times and not sticking, should provide some cover on hilly and mountain areas.

highdef · 20-01-2019 12:33pm

esposito wrote: »

Well I hope you’re proved wrong and we get a nice surprise in the east Tuesday morning

I have to say I'm in agreement with Meteorite58 and Gonzo. Away from higher ground (below c300m) and away from western and northern coastal areas, I reckon it'll be an all rain event, with maybe some sleet or wet snow in the mix at the back edge of the front but I can't foresee anything sticking for the vast majority of the population.

I think there's more chance of wintriness in the showers that will follow overnight and into the next morning but even with those, I don't expect much in the way of lying snow. If you're a good bit inland and over about 150m, then you will (based on current models....this could change) have a better chance of a slight covering, 1 to 2cm at best.

I think the only real chance of getting a half decent coverage in low lying areas (and even at that, we're talking something like 3 - 5cm) is if you're lucky enough to be situated in an area that gets a succession of snow showers that make decent enough progress across the country to lower the effects of the polar maritime "dampness". Some parts of the midlands and mid-west would be best situated for this kind of set-up, the further north the better.

Mountainyman, I look forward to seeing some snowy photos from you, come Tuesday morning as I reckon you're in one of the better locations.

I'm hoping there is a bit of an upgrade so that more people have a better chance of getting a covering, even if it's gone by late morning but at this stage I'm not optimistic on the models getting any better. The opposite is more likely, IMO.

Gonzo · 20-01-2019 12:47pm

highdef wrote: »

I reckon it'll be an all rain event, with maybe some sleet or wet snow in the mix at the back edge of the front but I can't foresee anything sticking for the vast majority of the population.

This is what the models I am looking at is showing. The band of rain arrives around lunch time tomorow in the north-west and falls as rain, it moves gradually south-eastwards. By the afternoon much of the country is covered in relatively light to moderate rain. The back edge of the event looks like it will turn to sleet and snow, some of it could be heavy, but by that stage the ground will already be wet from the rain and temperatures will still be above freezing. The band of rain/sleet and snow clears the country in the evening with showers following on behind.

These showers would primarily be in the north and west, mostly falling as hail or snow. The showers look like they will break up over the midlands with very little if anything transferring into Leinster. Could be a very frosty night in many areas Monday night. Snow showers still in western and northern areas on Tuesday morning, gradually turning to sleet, then rain as the day goes on, as milder air moves in from the west. Temperatures from Wednesday to Saturday look close to or slightly above normal for the time of year. (about 7 to 10C range).

highdef · 20-01-2019 1:05pm

Gonzo wrote: »

This is what the models I am looking at is showing. The band of rain arrives around lunch time tomorow in the north-west and falls as rain, it moves gradually south-eastwards. By the afternoon much of the country is covered in relatively light to moderate rain. The back edge of the event looks like it will turn to sleet and snow, some of it could be heavy, but by that stage the ground will already be wet from the rain and temperatures will still be above freezing. The band of rain/sleet and snow clears the country in the evening with showers following on behind.

These showers would primarily be in the north and west, mostly falling as hail or snow. The showers look like they will break up over the midlands with very little if anything transferring into Leinster. Could be a very frosty night in many areas Monday night. Snow showers still in western and northern areas on Tuesday morning, gradually turning to sleet, then rain as the day goes on, as milder air moves in from the west. Temperatures from Wednesday to Saturday look close to or slightly above normal for the time of year. (about 7 to 10C range).

I think the main risk in the eastern half of the country will be ice on untreated surfaces, mainly on less travelled roads that are sheltered from the breeze (I'm thinking the local roads where I live as a prime example). It doesn't look cold enough for ice to be encountered much on busier roads because of extra air movement caused by traffic both drying the surface more quickly and also preventing temperatures close to the ground from dropping so much.

Rebelbrowser · 20-01-2019 1:05pm

Gonzo wrote: »

This is what the models I am looking at is showing. The band of rain arrives around lunch time tomorow in the north-west and falls as rain, it moves gradually south-eastwards. By the afternoon much of the country is covered in relatively light to moderate rain. The back edge of the event looks like it will turn to sleet and snow, some of it could be heavy, but by that stage the ground will already be wet from the rain and temperatures will still be above freezing. The band of rain/sleet and snow clears the country in the evening with showers following on behind.

These showers would primarily be in the north and west, mostly falling as hail or snow. The showers look like they will break up over the midlands with very little if anything transferring into Leinster. Could be a very frosty night in many areas Monday night. Snow showers still in western and northern areas on Tuesday morning, gradually turning to sleet, then rain as the day goes on, as milder air moves in from the west. Temperatures from Wednesday to Saturday look close to or slightly above normal for the time of year. (about 7 to 10C range).

From previous experience of these set ups in my neck of the woods (Cork city southern suburb, ca. 70m ASL), it will be rain til 5 or 6am and then there will be a ca. 2 hour window of wet snow. Will settle on cars eventually and maybe on grass. Won't settle on roads but will be nice to look at for a while.

YanSno · 20-01-2019 1:08pm

esposito wrote: »

Well I hope you’re proved wrong and we get a nice surprise in the east Tuesday morning

You might catch a shower or two certainly not a dusting current guidance show showers dying out very quickly with height rising to the west

munsterlegend · 20-01-2019 1:09pm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

From previous experience of these set ups in my neck of the woods (Cork city southern suburb, ca. 70m ASL), it will be rain til 5 or 6am and then there will be a ca. 2 hour window of wet snow. Will settle on cars eventually and maybe on grass. Won't settle on roads but will be nice to look at for a while.

Yep while always to see snow falling it will be messy. Hopefully this time next week we will be on the cusp of something more prolonged that will last a few days.

Mortelaro · 20-01-2019 1:38pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

Is that what they normally mean with low air temperatures and low 850 hPa's such as forecast?

I hear this line alot, but NW'rlys are not normally as cold (it's not uncommon though).

On a personal view, I think snow is on the wrong side of marginal for many areas tomorrow, as rainfall will precede the snow making for a moist ground level and wet surfaces unhelpful for snow to settle on.

Long Atlantic Sea track modification usually means you need -9 or 10 850s at a min

Early Dec 17 brought a cold transatlantic system in that brought moderate snowfall to many inland areas and even turned to snow on its southern flank in waterford

Monday evenings is not near as cold but does drag in cold enough behind it
So my guess is mostly mountain snow with cold rain or sleet lower down
That's not to say some fluke areas could avoid wet snow but it's unlikely I think

Billcarson · 20-01-2019 1:38pm

I'm more interested in hoping a we get a good frost tonight . Polar maritime slop doesnt do it for me. Its really just teasing rubbish not that I expect anything from it in County meath anyway . But admittedly better then anything so far this "winter".

Gaoth Laidir · 20-01-2019 1:55pm

We're really only talking about a few hours of a window here where conditions may just be about right for snow. Maximum potential is the hours just around dawn. Otherwise it's the usual marginal slop.

SEPT 23 1989 · 20-01-2019 2:14pm

BBC weather had snow showers for here on Tuesday

JCX BXC · 20-01-2019 2:50pm

Even if it's wet messy sloppy Atlantic sh*te, it'll still be nice to see in a winterless Ireland.

I'm glad I got my fill of snow in Poland anyway!

squarecircles · 20-01-2019 3:30pm

the thing that makes me laugh is we'd be knee deep in a desperate technical thread if slop was approaching elsewhere in the country.

not mentioning anywhere in particular,dublin,oh there i said it.

marginal slop equality rights.

Discusing this is no less desperate than people driving to the summits of the wicklow mountains to see a bit of dandruff along the sides of the road.

so stick it up yer jaxy,with the moaning.

ninebeanrows · 20-01-2019 3:38pm

PROB30 TEMPO SHRASN

aisling86 · 20-01-2019 3:40pm

Going to be hit & miss for me...367ft ASL mid cork....fingers x we see some....

Snow / Ice warning Mon 21 pm to Tues 22 Jan 2019

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