Snow / Ice warning Mon 21 pm to Tues 22 Jan 2019

JanuarySnowstor · 19-01-2019 8:47pm #1

Models are firming up on a significant risk of snow for this period. At the moment nothing disruptive looks likely but certainly hilly areas should see some white gold!! While we wait for the beast from the east not a bad appetiser..

kod87 · 19-01-2019 8:55pm

I think it says everything about this winter where a brief period of wet hill snow or sleet gets its own thread.

edit: not criticising JS on the thread, just bemoaning our sh!te winter so far.

JanuarySnowstor · 19-01-2019 8:58pm

Doesn't look like wet snow to me....more the real deal. It may not stick though after such a mild Winter

munsterlegend · 19-01-2019 8:59pm

These events from the Atlantic usually get watered down closer the time save for very high ground so wouldn’t be expecting too much.

Rebelbrowser · 19-01-2019 9:06pm

kod87 wrote: »

I think it says everything about this winter where a brief period of wet hill snow or sleet gets it's own thread

Such events always get their own thread. It's only fun. Those of us interested can focus now on this event for a few days and hopefully by the time Wednesday comes then there will be better on the horizon. If you have no interest, just avoid this thread. Well done JS.

JanuarySnowstor · 19-01-2019 9:12pm

Thanks rebel. Looks like Cork could be poised late Monday. I think there's a fair risk of snow falling to even low levels tbh and would expect Met Eireann to go yellow tomorrow

konman · 19-01-2019 9:47pm

The GFS has been fairly consistent with this for the last 4 days, I haven't checked today but Icon and Arpege were saying no.

Andrew00 · 19-01-2019 11:09pm

Wet snow and sleet

SEPT 23 1989 · 19-01-2019 11:13pm

Andrew00 wrote: »

Wet snow and sleet

We need those pellets back again

at that start look a bit sh1t but by jaysus do they mount up

Snowbiee21 · 19-01-2019 11:14pm

Andrew00 wrote: »

Wet snow and sleet

You going to back this up

Ilyushin76 · 19-01-2019 11:27pm

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

You going to back this up

Don't question our expert weather chart analyzer;)

EdgeCase · 19-01-2019 11:29pm

Unless it's combined with a serious cold snap, I would doubt it'll be enough to be disruptive.

JCX BXC · 19-01-2019 11:33pm

kod87 wrote: »

I think it says everything about this winter where a brief period of wet hill snow or sleet gets its own thread.

I don't agree with you here at all, any Irish winter would get such a thread. It says more about our climate!

M.T. Cranium · 19-01-2019 11:34pm

Also, some heavy hail showers with thunder quite possible, as well as scattered 1-3 cm falls of snow, thickness values support frozen precip down to sea level (516 dm embedded near core of cold air mass will arrive Tuesday morning, dissipates over northwest Ireland but sub-522 for everybody for a time).

An Ri rua · 19-01-2019 11:41pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Also, some heavy hail showers with thunder quite possible, as well as scattered 1-3 cm falls of snow, thickness values support frozen precip down to sea level (516 dm embedded near core of cold air mass will arrive Tuesday morning, dissipates over northwest Ireland but sub-522 for everybody for a time).

Not unlike the December 10th 2017 snow we had in Laois and Offaly so.
A nice appetiser!

je551e · 19-01-2019 11:41pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

I don't agree with you here at all, any Irish winter would get such a thread. It says more about our climate!

Agreed , This isn’t met eireann it’s a weather forum to talk about weather , don’t post much but follow all the time , people seem to have forgotten what this is . A weather Forum

Davaeo09 · 19-01-2019 11:46pm

If it would just intensify slightly to be more widespread

Although no one can deny Cork their fun after the "snowshield" fiascos

An Ri rua · 20-01-2019 12:00am

je551e wrote: »

JCX BXC wrote: »

I don't agree with you here at all, any Irish winter would get such a thread. It says more about our climate!

Agreed , This isn’t met eireann it’s a weather forum to talk about weather , don’t post much but follow all the time , people seem to have forgotten what this is . A weather Forum

'Weather it will or weather it won't snow' forum

JCX BXC · 20-01-2019 12:25am

Davaeo09 wrote: »

If it would just intensify slightly to be more widespread

Although no one can deny Cork their fun after the "snowshield" fiascos

Snowshield my 'arse', since I joined boards Cork have achieved much more snow than I have in West Clare.

Rebelbrowser · 20-01-2019 12:38am

See above. In my experience of these north westerly snow events any snow (as opposed to rain) usually falls around 6 or 7am so this chart might be accurate.

Snowbiee21 · 20-01-2019 12:40am

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

See above. In my experience of these north westerly snow events any snow (as opposed to rain) usually falls around 6 or 7am so this chart might be accurate.

East coast snow shield. Lol

mickger844posts · 20-01-2019 12:43am

Conditions looking favorable for snow late Monday into Tuesday across most of the country. 850 temps fine, Air Temps fine and the all important Dew points fine.
If you get precipitation likely it will be snow. Considering what we have suffered the Winter so far well worth a thread of its own i feel.

Marengo · 20-01-2019 12:43am

Even if it's hill snow it mightn't be a bad omen.

Hill snow around 19th Jan 2009. Followed by a cold, snowy first half of February in the east. Hill snow between Christmas and New Year 1990..followed by more general snowfall in January and February 1991. Off the top of my head.

SleetAndSnow · 20-01-2019 12:48am

I think the difference between the Cork snow shield |(which mostly affects the city really) and the others is that it often shows snow from waterford to kerry, but theres a gap around Cork City area and we don't get any!

. Just the awkward area. we aren't exactly at the coast but we aren't in the middle either. Too far south for the north snow events, when it comes from the north east they go through waterford and continue that direction down the coast etc.

. South east winds really are the best bet for us to get snow down here I think but again im still learning so im not sure.

We are also a low enough lying city, hence marsh from Irish, which doesnt help either.

Donegal Storm · 20-01-2019 2:45am

Long sea track north westerlies usually mean hail and sleet with any lying snow confined to 300m+, might be the odd covering lower down but it'll quickly turn to mush once the sun rises. Still, at least it'll be interesting to get a dynamic day's weather after all the stagnant nothingness of the past month

JCX BXC · 20-01-2019 3:04am

Is that what they normally mean with low air temperatures and low 850 hPa's such as forecast?

I hear this line alot, but NW'rlys are not normally as cold (it's not uncommon though).

On a personal view, I think snow is on the wrong side of marginal for many areas tomorrow, as rainfall will precede the snow making for a moist ground level and wet surfaces unhelpful for snow to settle on.

Donegal Storm · 20-01-2019 3:16am

850hPa temps are nearly always a degree or two warmer than what the GFS forecasts a few days out in these setups, the ECMWF is only showing -6C. With a long sea track there'll be significant mixing at the lowest levels so I'd expect the usual affair of hail showers on the north and west coasts turning to sleety snow across Tyrone, Cavan etc. Might be a brief early morning covering in parts but I find borderline north westerlies more a nuisance than anything

Rebelbrowser · 20-01-2019 9:41am

Donegal Storm wrote: »

850hPa temps are nearly always a degree or two warmer than what the GFS forecasts a few days out in these setups, the ECMWF is only showing -6C. With a long sea track there'll be significant mixing at the lowest levels so I'd expect the usual affair of hail showers on the north and west coasts turning to sleety snow across Tyrone, Cavan etc. Might be a brief early morning covering in parts but I find borderline north westerlies more a nuisance than anything

ECM looks like -8s too to me?

downwiththatsor · 20-01-2019 9:50am

Donegal Storm wrote: »

850hPa temps are nearly always a degree or two warmer than what the GFS forecasts a few days out in these setups, the ECMWF is only showing -6C. With a long sea track there'll be significant mixing at the lowest levels so I'd expect the usual affair of hail showers on the north and west coasts turning to sleety snow across Tyrone, Cavan etc. Might be a brief early morning covering in parts but I find borderline north westerlies more a nuisance than anything

Ecm shows a dusting by Tuesday morning. See attached
Euro 4 also shows accumulated snow

Gaoth Laidir · 20-01-2019 10:39am

It looks like a very brief window for low-level snow in the northwest and north overnight Monday and up to dawn Tuesday. After that it should turn more marginal.

The source air is currently coming off New Foundland and will have a 3000-km sea track to reach us. This sounding for Goose Bay at 12Z yesterday gives an idea, so a frigid airmass that will modify fairly quickly. The ECM shows thicknesses here just on the cusp by 06Z Tuesday morning, so people in the northwest and north midlands should wake up to a dusting. Later in the morning it will turn the wrong side of marginal as heights build from the west.

2019011912.71816.skewt.parc.gif

JanuarySnowstor · 20-01-2019 10:46am

I don't agree with that Gaoth the gfs is showing the coldest uppers over us 9am to midday rather than early morning. Also the southwest looks quite snowy to me over higher ground. Places like West Cork could do well imo

Snow / Ice warning Mon 21 pm to Tues 22 Jan 2019

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