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Snow / Ice warning Mon 21 pm to Tues 22 Jan 2019

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    I don't agree with that Gaoth the gfs is showing the coldest uppers over us 9am to midday rather than early morning. Also the southwest looks quite snowy to me over higher ground. Places like West Cork could do well imo

    I'm talking about low-level snow.


  • Registered Users Posts: 358 ✭✭YanSno


    Low level snow most likely from Tuesday morning 4am - 9am after that sleet or hail. Precipitation looks confined, North West most likely to see a dusting


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,720 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    It would seem to me not much if any snow from the fronts as they passe over on Monday, except perhaps for the highest ground in the NW and then after that the colder more unstable air mass follows with embedded troughs from the NW introducing plenty of showers form later Monday into Tues some of which may produce thunder around coasts. Atm looks like a rain, hail and sleet mix for the most part and better chance of snow showers the further North you go and the higher elevation, snow settling on hills and mountains for the day. The NW looks to get a decent amount of snow being under the coldest air mass.

    Close to wind warning territory on Monday for a few hours along Atlantic coastal counties.

    Windy Tues along coasts

    The Fronts dropping between 5 - 15mm rain along Atlantic coastal counties, less further inland.

    Bitter cold on Monday and Tues with a considerable windchill.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,323 ✭✭✭esposito


    YanSno wrote: »
    Low level snow most likely from Tuesday morning 4am - 9am after that sleet or hail. Precipitation looks confined, North West most likely to see a dusting

    Well I hope you’re proved wrong and we get a nice surprise in the east Tuesday morning


  • Registered Users Posts: 906 ✭✭✭downwiththatsor


    Latest Euro 4 out to 6AM Tuesday
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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,611 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    very, little if any lying snow is expected in the east, other areas probably more like wet snow falling at times and not sticking, should provide some cover on hilly and mountain areas.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,045 ✭✭✭highdef


    esposito wrote: »
    Well I hope you’re proved wrong and we get a nice surprise in the east Tuesday morning

    I have to say I'm in agreement with Meteorite58 and Gonzo. Away from higher ground (below c300m) and away from western and northern coastal areas, I reckon it'll be an all rain event, with maybe some sleet or wet snow in the mix at the back edge of the front but I can't foresee anything sticking for the vast majority of the population.

    I think there's more chance of wintriness in the showers that will follow overnight and into the next morning but even with those, I don't expect much in the way of lying snow. If you're a good bit inland and over about 150m, then you will (based on current models....this could change) have a better chance of a slight covering, 1 to 2cm at best.

    I think the only real chance of getting a half decent coverage in low lying areas (and even at that, we're talking something like 3 - 5cm) is if you're lucky enough to be situated in an area that gets a succession of snow showers that make decent enough progress across the country to lower the effects of the polar maritime "dampness". Some parts of the midlands and mid-west would be best situated for this kind of set-up, the further north the better.

    Mountainyman, I look forward to seeing some snowy photos from you, come Tuesday morning as I reckon you're in one of the better locations.

    I'm hoping there is a bit of an upgrade so that more people have a better chance of getting a covering, even if it's gone by late morning but at this stage I'm not optimistic on the models getting any better. The opposite is more likely, IMO.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,611 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    highdef wrote: »
    I reckon it'll be an all rain event, with maybe some sleet or wet snow in the mix at the back edge of the front but I can't foresee anything sticking for the vast majority of the population.

    This is what the models I am looking at is showing. The band of rain arrives around lunch time tomorow in the north-west and falls as rain, it moves gradually south-eastwards. By the afternoon much of the country is covered in relatively light to moderate rain. The back edge of the event looks like it will turn to sleet and snow, some of it could be heavy, but by that stage the ground will already be wet from the rain and temperatures will still be above freezing. The band of rain/sleet and snow clears the country in the evening with showers following on behind.

    These showers would primarily be in the north and west, mostly falling as hail or snow. The showers look like they will break up over the midlands with very little if anything transferring into Leinster. Could be a very frosty night in many areas Monday night. Snow showers still in western and northern areas on Tuesday morning, gradually turning to sleet, then rain as the day goes on, as milder air moves in from the west. Temperatures from Wednesday to Saturday look close to or slightly above normal for the time of year. (about 7 to 10C range).


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,045 ✭✭✭highdef


    Gonzo wrote: »
    This is what the models I am looking at is showing. The band of rain arrives around lunch time tomorow in the north-west and falls as rain, it moves gradually south-eastwards. By the afternoon much of the country is covered in relatively light to moderate rain. The back edge of the event looks like it will turn to sleet and snow, some of it could be heavy, but by that stage the ground will already be wet from the rain and temperatures will still be above freezing. The band of rain/sleet and snow clears the country in the evening with showers following on behind.

    These showers would primarily be in the north and west, mostly falling as hail or snow. The showers look like they will break up over the midlands with very little if anything transferring into Leinster. Could be a very frosty night in many areas Monday night. Snow showers still in western and northern areas on Tuesday morning, gradually turning to sleet, then rain as the day goes on, as milder air moves in from the west. Temperatures from Wednesday to Saturday look close to or slightly above normal for the time of year. (about 7 to 10C range).

    I think the main risk in the eastern half of the country will be ice on untreated surfaces, mainly on less travelled roads that are sheltered from the breeze (I'm thinking the local roads where I live as a prime example). It doesn't look cold enough for ice to be encountered much on busier roads because of extra air movement caused by traffic both drying the surface more quickly and also preventing temperatures close to the ground from dropping so much.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,124 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Gonzo wrote: »
    This is what the models I am looking at is showing. The band of rain arrives around lunch time tomorow in the north-west and falls as rain, it moves gradually south-eastwards. By the afternoon much of the country is covered in relatively light to moderate rain. The back edge of the event looks like it will turn to sleet and snow, some of it could be heavy, but by that stage the ground will already be wet from the rain and temperatures will still be above freezing. The band of rain/sleet and snow clears the country in the evening with showers following on behind.

    These showers would primarily be in the north and west, mostly falling as hail or snow. The showers look like they will break up over the midlands with very little if anything transferring into Leinster. Could be a very frosty night in many areas Monday night. Snow showers still in western and northern areas on Tuesday morning, gradually turning to sleet, then rain as the day goes on, as milder air moves in from the west. Temperatures from Wednesday to Saturday look close to or slightly above normal for the time of year. (about 7 to 10C range).

    From previous experience of these set ups in my neck of the woods (Cork city southern suburb, ca. 70m ASL), it will be rain til 5 or 6am and then there will be a ca. 2 hour window of wet snow. Will settle on cars eventually and maybe on grass. Won't settle on roads but will be nice to look at for a while.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 358 ✭✭YanSno


    esposito wrote: »
    Well I hope you’re proved wrong and we get a nice surprise in the east Tuesday morning

    You might catch a shower or two certainly not a dusting current guidance show showers dying out very quickly with height rising to the west


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,131 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    From previous experience of these set ups in my neck of the woods (Cork city southern suburb, ca. 70m ASL), it will be rain til 5 or 6am and then there will be a ca. 2 hour window of wet snow. Will settle on cars eventually and maybe on grass. Won't settle on roads but will be nice to look at for a while.

    Yep while always to see snow falling it will be messy. Hopefully this time next week we will be on the cusp of something more prolonged that will last a few days.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    Is that what they normally mean with low air temperatures and low 850 hPa's such as forecast?

    I hear this line alot, but NW'rlys are not normally as cold (it's not uncommon though).

    On a personal view, I think snow is on the wrong side of marginal for many areas tomorrow, as rainfall will precede the snow making for a moist ground level and wet surfaces unhelpful for snow to settle on.

    Long Atlantic Sea track modification usually means you need -9 or 10 850s at a min

    Early Dec 17 brought a cold transatlantic system in that brought moderate snowfall to many inland areas and even turned to snow on its southern flank in waterford


    Monday evenings is not near as cold but does drag in cold enough behind it
    So my guess is mostly mountain snow with cold rain or sleet lower down
    That's not to say some fluke areas could avoid wet snow but it's unlikely I think


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,458 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    I'm more interested in hoping a we get a good frost tonight . Polar maritime slop doesnt do it for me. Its really just teasing rubbish not that I expect anything from it in County meath anyway . But admittedly better then anything so far this "winter".


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    We're really only talking about a few hours of a window here where conditions may just be about right for snow. Maximum potential is the hours just around dawn. Otherwise it's the usual marginal slop.


  • Registered Users Posts: 42,999 ✭✭✭✭SEPT 23 1989


    BBC weather had snow showers for here on Tuesday


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,059 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Even if it's wet messy sloppy Atlantic sh*te, it'll still be nice to see in a winterless Ireland.

    I'm glad I got my fill of snow in Poland anyway!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,979 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    the thing that makes me laugh is we'd be knee deep in a desperate technical thread if slop was approaching elsewhere in the country.


    not mentioning anywhere in particular,dublin,oh there i said it.


    marginal slop equality rights.


    Discusing this is no less desperate than people driving to the summits of the wicklow mountains to see a bit of dandruff along the sides of the road.


    so stick it up yer jaxy,with the moaning.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,776 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    PROB30 TEMPO SHRASN


  • Registered Users Posts: 583 ✭✭✭aisling86


    Going to be hit & miss for me...367ft ASL mid cork....fingers x we see some....


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,720 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Euro4 showing the most snowfall and more inland as well it would seem. Quite windy on the coasts and blustery in some of those big showers.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭kittyn


    I just might see a dusting ��


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,776 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    There could be a decent dusting on Tuesday morning. Some parts of the midlands could jackpot a few inches. Greater Dublin might even get a dusting

    Tiocaidh ar La


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    the thing that makes me laugh is we'd be knee deep in a desperate technical thread if slop was approaching elsewhere in the country.


    not mentioning anywhere in particular,dublin,oh there i said it.


    marginal slop equality rights.


    Discusing this is no less desperate than people driving to the summits of the wicklow mountains to see a bit of dandruff along the sides of the road.


    so stick it up yer jaxy,with the moaning.

    There you go again for the 2nd time today with your east coast paranoia. Stick that up yer jaxy.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,776 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    kittyn wrote: »
    I just might see a dusting ��

    According to the HIRLAM you would

    But it is a very poor model


  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭kittyn


    According to the HIRLAM you would

    But it is a very poor model


    Ah now Sleety don’t go bursting my happy bubble 🤣🤣🤣


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,776 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    kittyn wrote: »
    Ah now Sleety don’t go bursting my happy bubble 🀣🀣🀣

    Sleet is a mix of rain and snow - it doesn’t accumulate .


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,776 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    In aviation parlance it is written as RASN but can be written as SNRA if the mixture is more snow than rain


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,314 ✭✭✭cml387


    Nothing to do with snow, but does Rathdowney have a special meteorological significance?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭kittyn


    Sleet is a mix of rain and snow - it doesn’t accumulate .

    I know the difference between sleet and snow ....... I was messing the weather will do what ever Mother Nature wishes ........ I’d love to see snow but if I don’t I’m sure I’ll survive lol


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