Winter 2011/2012

Heres the outlook from this week last year (Sorry I couldnt help myself for nostalgia reasons )

Pangea wrote: »

UK Outlook for Monday 22 Nov 2010 to Wednesday 1 Dec 2010:

A generally unsettled and chilly start with clear or sunny spells, but also with showers, particularly in the east, where some longer spells of rain are also possible. Showers wintry over hills. It will soon turn colder into next week with showers turning increasingly wintry to lower levels with a risk of some significant accumulations of snow in northern and eastern parts. Temperatures below average for the time of year with an increasing risk of overnight frost and icy surfaces, especially where skies clear. Feeling cold in the often fresh and mainly northeasterly wind. The cold theme then continues through to the beginning of December, with northern and eastern parts most at risk from wintry weather.

Updated: 1212 on Wed 17 Nov 2010


UK Outlook for Thursday 2 Dec 2010 to Thursday 16 Dec 2010:

It is expected to remain cold across much of the UK, with precipitation amounts around average, or slightly below, throughout the period. Northeasterly winds could bring wintry showers to northern and eastern areas at times. Amounts of sunshine should be above average away from northern and eastern coasts where it is likely to be cloudier. Temperatures are likely to be below average across the country, with frosty nights and the possibility of some wintry precipitation at times for most areas.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

Pangea wrote: »

Heres the Met UK outlook

UK Outlook for Monday 21 Nov 2011 to Wednesday 30 Nov 2011:

Starting mild and unsettled in the western half of the UK, where spells of rain will occasionally turn heavy, particularly over southwest-facing slopes in the northwest. The rain will be coupled with gales in parts of the west, perhaps severe gales in some northwestern areas at times. The east should experience drier, brighter conditions at first, with a risk of some fog in the mornings, and chilly overnight temperatures. The milder but unsettled conditions in the west may make inroads east at times, however. By the second week, westerly winds should spread east, giving largely unsettled weather across all parts. Temperatures will fall to near-normal, with an increased incidence of overnight frosts and a heightened snow risk for Scottish mountains.

Updated: 1120 on Wed 16 Nov 2011


UK Outlook for Wednesday 30 Nov 2011 to Wednesday 14 Dec 2011:

The first half of December should see some rather unsettled and changeable weather, particularly towards the north and west. Total precipitation amounts are likely to be close to or above the seasonal average, whilst some snow is likely on high ground in the northern half of the UK. Temperatures are expected to be around average but, at this time of year, that typically means single-figure degrees Celsius maxima and an increasing chance of overnight frosts. A few milder days are still possible, chiefly in the west at first, but on the whole it will feel significantly colder than during the recent mild spell.

Heres the outlook from this week last year (Sorry I couldnt help myself for nostalgia reasons )

maquiladora wrote: »

Don't think anyone else has mentioned this yet.

It's about 170 hours out so kinda FI but still interesting...





Thats violent storm force sustained winds on the southwest coast there. You could have hurricane force gusts with that if that came off.

Of course the track/intensity will change a lot and this could even be gone completely on the next run.

Heyes wrote: »

Are you for real !!!!!!! Hoping for good / calm weather on the 26th

Looks a lot like December's expected pattern starting to make itself apparent in the modelling, with the exception of operational ECM and ECM mean which are marked outliers in my book.

Key to this is the westward shift of the main upper trough over Alaska pepping up the ridge over the Canadian Arctic (this has been over Hudson Bay for much of the autumn in various strengths). The Pacific ridge looks flat and the eastward shift in the Canadian ridge looks likley to nudge our trough further east resulting in a consequent nudge to the ridge over Scandinavia.

The concensus NAEFS H5 mean has been for a temporary weakening of the Scandinavian ridge as the pattern flattens out in response to the upstream change however it should be noted that the composite analogue package doesn't make much of the Canadian ridge in the longer term, prefering to shift this south into the Atlantic with a strengthening positive anomaly over Finland, something NAEFS is also hinting at the end of runs to rebuild heights over Scandinavia as the Canadian ridge wanes.

All of this does suggest a bit more emphasis on a westerly or south-westerly type pattern for the UK.

For anyone thinking the ECM might be onto something, I would advise a look at how the ECM models the MJO in the next 15 days (much the most progressive of all reliable global models) and ECM spreads for our part of the world.

Still absolutely no sign of anything remotely cold, quite the reverse in fact with the forecast flat upstream pattern not going to help things in the future either.

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Turning 'somewhat colder' from the present 10-12c brings us to average temps for this time of year. The charts beyond the 25th show transitions from current set-up to cooler weather and back to milder weather, hence why MT probably is uncertain about the timing. One thing is clear is that a pattern change is on the way come the 25/26. The Atlantic will lose its firm handle on our weather and there is a massive pool of cold air to our nw, nw and ne. The charts presently show high pressure holding its position over Greenland in late Nov into early Dec, with 1/2 Scandinavian highs forming. One to watch and see if the models stick to this set up. If they do then we could be heading toward our first proper wintry outbreak of the season sometime during second week of December.