Atlantic Storm Watch & Coastal Flooding Events: January 2014

maquiladora · 31-12-2013 8:04pm

Storm 10 wrote: »

Met Eireann warned of a new storm for Thursday, showed the low with very tight lines bringing another stormy period on Thur Night

Doesn't look too bad on the latest ECM. Gales along exposed Atlantic coasts, blustery inland. A fairly standard winter low if this came off.

M.T. Cranium · 31-12-2013 9:45pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Friday morning looks nasty on all 3 models.
Kind of crept up on us this one...

Umm yeah post #1 ??

(strong signal for level 2 event)

maquiladora · 31-12-2013 10:22pm

Looks a little stronger on the hi res HIRLAM than on the ECM. Storm force winds brushing the southwest/west coasts. Sub-950mb low.

maquiladora · 01-01-2014 10:54am

Thursday/Friday is looking more stormy now on this mornings models.

ninebeanrows · 01-01-2014 11:40am

GFS 6z would give widespread 60kt gusts...

925hPa winds noon Friday

Storm 10 · 01-01-2014 2:32pm

Met Eireann just said on the shipping forecast, winds tomorrow evening , South strong gale 9, backing South West and increasing storm force 10 to violent storm force 11, time to change the warning color I think.

kerrywez · 01-01-2014 2:47pm

Hi and a very Happy New Year to all on Boards. Been looking round a little and have found some more convincing charts for the next storm.

GFS Sea level pressure chart for 6AM Friday 3rd Jan 2014.PNG

ECMWF Sea level pressure chart for midnight Thursday 2 nd Jan 2014.PNG

Hope this works out it is the first time I have tried to attach an image if it does not work out then I shall have to supply the UL for the charrs.

Regards Wez

PS got to be doing something wrong here as only the links came up on the post.

redsteveireland · 01-01-2014 3:06pm

Storm 10 wrote: »

Met Eireann just said on the shipping forecast, winds tomorrow evening , South strong gale 9, backing South West and increasing storm force 10 to violent storm force 11, time to change the warning color I think.

...at sea?

_Whimsical_ · 01-01-2014 3:16pm

RTE lunchtime tv forecast made little of our chances of a storm friday.She said it could be windy but 50km/h was the highest wind speed they showed on the chart.

Frank Garrett · 01-01-2014 3:54pm

redsteveireland wrote: »

...at sea?

Irish people are amphibian.

Storm 10 · 01-01-2014 3:57pm

Guys I posted what Evelyn said on RTE radio 1 at five to one after that I know no more, Im sure you can reply that forecast

maquiladora · 01-01-2014 4:17pm

12Z NAE looks a little more stormy for southwest and western coastal areas, with the low tracking a little closer to the coast the gradient gets squeezed a bit tigher. Though we are still looking at something less severe, less widespread and of shorter duration than the 26th storm.

Midnight :

3am Friday :

Storm 10 · 01-01-2014 4:21pm

Met Eireann

Thursday night will be wet and stormy once again. A spell of heavy rain will affect all areas along with gale force southwest winds gusting to storm force.
Friday morning will continue stormy with a risk of damaging gusts. The winds will just slowly abate during the day.

kerrywez · 01-01-2014 4:43pm

Storm 10 wrote: »

Met Eireann

Thursday night will be wet and stormy once again. A spell of heavy rain will affect all areas along with gale force southwest winds gusting to storm force.
Friday morning will continue stormy with a risk of damaging gusts. The winds will just slowly abate during the day.

Just had a look and they have two yellow warnings there, 1 gale warning "Gale Warning
Gales or strong gales for a time this afternoon on Irish coastal waters from Malin Head to Howth Head to Mizen Head and on the Irish Sea; southeast to southwest.

Issued:Wednesday 01 January 2014 12:00 and a small craft warning

Small Craft Warning
Winds will reach force 6 or higher today and tonight on coasts from Mizen Head to Slyne Head to Malin Head; cyclonic variable becoming west to southwest. See also gale warning.

Issued:Wednesday 01 January 2014 12:00

At least we should not be as stormy over here on the west coast, just fooling us into a false sense of security, before tomorrow night/Friday morning

They would not have the warnings up for midnight Thursday or through thee night yet. I got to go for a MRI scan in my knee on Friday, but it is the afternoon so all should be well by then.

Regards Wez

maquiladora · 01-01-2014 7:32pm

Stormy/windy for Atlantic facing coastal areas tomorrow night and early Friday morning. There will probably be an orange warning for those counties from Met Eireann later tonight or in the morning. More wet & windy rather than stormy elsewhere. Risk of coastal flooding was also highlighted.

howlinwolf · 01-01-2014 9:21pm

oh how we have been spoiled lately.... a decent enough depression heading straight our way and its as quite as a mouse in here. im expecting met eireann to issue an orange warning for at least munster and the west coast. this system might not pack the punch the 26th storm had but one thing to remember is that a lot of people are back to work tomorrow so there should be a lot more traffic on the roads so just a heads up to any one driving tomorrow night or early Friday to take it handy.

maquiladora · 01-01-2014 9:41pm

howlinwolf wrote: »

oh how we have been spoiled lately.... a decent enough depression heading straight our way and its as quite as a mouse in here. im expecting met eireann to issue an orange warning for at least munster and the west coast. this system might not pack the punch the 26th storm had but one thing to remember is that a lot of people are back to work tomorrow so there should be a lot more traffic on the roads so just a heads up to any one driving tomorrow night or early Friday to take it handy.

Storm depression depression? People feeling low after another low? Ok I'll stop.

Here it is at 6pm today out in the Atlantic, 982.

sunbabe08 · 01-01-2014 9:51pm

after the St Stephen's day storm, i think i can handle any storm that comes our way. bring it on i say

yellowlabrador · 01-01-2014 10:25pm

Simon Keeling just posted a flood warning. I hope the people in Cork are prepared.

ninebeanrows · 01-01-2014 10:32pm

18z could be interesting, already deeper and further east.

gfs-0-18.png?18?18

ninebeanrows · 01-01-2014 10:36pm

Looking pretty severe for parts of the south & west at 30hrs.

gfs-0-30.png?18?18

18z GFS places a swathe of high winds well inland across much of Ireland.

gfs-0-33-3h.png?18

maquiladora · 01-01-2014 10:48pm

High tide will be just over 6m early Friday morning in Galway. Combine that with low pressure and big swells and you can see the risk of coastal flooding. Hopefully the timing will be staggered a bit so it doesn't all happen at once.

ninebeanrows · 01-01-2014 10:54pm

maquiladora wrote: »

High tide will be just over 6m early Friday morning in Galway. Combine that with low pressure and big swells and you can see the risk of coastal flooding. Hopefully the timing will be staggered a bit so it doesn't all happen at once.

Yup couple that with the 70 knot gusts and it won't be pleasant.

maquiladora · 01-01-2014 11:17pm

18Z HIRLAM shows storm force winds along the coast from Mizen Head to Belmullet.

18Z GFS showing potential for gusts of up to 42.5 m/s on the coast.

kerrywez · 01-01-2014 11:20pm

Can some one please let me know what the record low pressure is again, I have forgotten. Just that the centre of this fellow will be about 950 and it looks like it will come over the SW? Should just add here that I was referring to the GFS for Friday 04:00 chart, needed to clear that up as the chart above seems to be in complete contrast as to the whereabouts of the centre of the low.

Regards Wez

maquiladora · 01-01-2014 11:28pm

kerrywez wrote: »

Can some one please let me know what the record low pressure is again, I have forgotten. Just that the centre of this fellow will be about 950 and it looks like it will come over the SW? Should just add here that I was referring to the GFS for Friday 04:00 chart, needed to clear that up as the chart above seems to be in complete contrast as to the whereabouts of the centre of the low.

Regards Wez

January record is 936.6, so that isn't going to be beaten no matter what happens! The models show a 950-945 low staying offshore.

Spring Onion · 01-01-2014 11:53pm

maquiladora wrote: »

High tide will be just over 6m early Friday morning in Galway.

Do you mean 5m? I do see a very high tide of 5.5m at 6am.

ninebeanrows · 02-01-2014 12:01am

Quite a distinct push south from the majority of the 18z Ensembles tonight with a bigger chance of a widespread storm.

The morning runs will be very interesting.

maquiladora · 02-01-2014 12:06am

Spring Onion wrote: »

Do you mean 5m? I do see a very high tide of 5.5m at 6am.

I just took it from the Marine Institute website. It shows highest tide Friday morning at 6.182m at 6:06am.

http://www.marine.ie/home/services/operational/oceanography/TidePredictions.htm

Spring Onion · 02-01-2014 12:09am

maquiladora wrote: »

I just took it from the Marine Institute website. It shows highest tide Friday morning at 6.182m at 6:06am.

http://www.marine.ie/home/services/operational/oceanography/TidePredictions.htm

Interesting, I always use this site but Galway port is more specific than Galway I suppose.

http://tides.mobilegeographics.com/calendar/month/2085.html

maquiladora · 02-01-2014 12:22am

Weathercheck wrote: »

Quite a distinct push south from the majority of the 18z Ensembles tonight with a bigger chance of a widespread storm.

The morning runs will be very interesting.

Still an outside chance of a second storm around the 6th too.

M.T. Cranium · 02-01-2014 7:59am

Welcome back, we have until sundown to prepare for another very severe windstorm event, roughly similar to the last one (26-27 Dec) and about the same timing, but slightly different dynamics. This one won't have quite as strong an occluded front racing out ahead, which may mean that Waterford and Wexford will not get quite as windy this time. On the other hand, this one misses the northwest by a slightly larger margin and so there probably won't be as prolonged an "eye" feature or mid-storm drop-off in wind speeds.

Expect this to ramp up quickly after 9 p.m. and peak around 0400-0700h with gusts to 140 km/hr in exposed locations on west and south(west) coast. Otherwise closer to 110 km/hr further inland. This storm may not be as prolonged as the previous one. Storm surge potential, on the other hand, will be considerably higher coming only 42h after new moon and 36h after lunar perigee.

The second major low to exit from North America is now showing some signs of peaking in mid-ocean and then heading more north than east, slowly weakening. It will probably spread very strong winds as far east as Ireland (gusts to 110 or 120 km/hr) but at this point there is no real sign of a severe wind storm event with it. However, it does reach 930 mb mid-ocean and any change in track would be of concern again.

maquiladora · 02-01-2014 8:37am

WV image from 6am.

49ft swell approaching from the southwest at midnight.

maquiladora · 02-01-2014 11:00am

Warnings are out.

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Connacht, Donegal, Clare, Cork, Kerry and Limerick

Becoming stormy this evening and tonight and continuing for a time tomorrow with South to Southwest winds mean speed 65 to 90 km/hr with gusts 110 to 130 km/hr. Heavy rain, high tides and high seas also, with local flooding, especially in coastal areas.

Issued:
Thursday 02 January 2014 09:00
Valid:
Thursday 02 January 2014 17:00 to Friday 03 January 2014 14:00

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan, Tipperary and Waterford

Becoming extremely windy or stormy this evening and tonight and continuing for a time tomorrow with South to Southwest winds mean speed 55 to 80 km/hr with gusts 90 to 110 km/hr. Risk of coastal flooding.

Issued:
Thursday 02 January 2014 09:00
Valid:
Thursday 02 January 2014 17:00 to Friday 03 January 2014 14:00

ninebeanrows · 02-01-2014 11:13am

Latest NAE:

maquiladora · 02-01-2014 11:28am

OPW High Tide Advisory

High Tide Advisory

The OPW wish to remind you of the High Tide Advisory Notice that issued on 23rd December 2013 and that Astronomical tides during this period are expected to be highest between Wednesday 1st January until Sunday 5th January 2014.

Furthermore, Peak surges on the 2nd and 3rd January are currently predicted to be very high

http://alerts.kerrycoco.ie/drupal/node/96

prunudo · 02-01-2014 12:04pm

I know the warning isn't as bad for Wicklow as last week but the similarity with the weather here today as before last Thursdays storm is uncanny, nice winters morning and not a cloud in the sky.

howlinwolf · 02-01-2014 12:32pm

On the road late tonight so im hopin its not too bad im only travelling through Kildare/ carlow so should be ok

kerrywez · 02-01-2014 12:40pm

Sunshine and cloud here in Kerry, with just a gentle breeze this morning and it is the same as a week ago here also.

Regards Wez

DominoDub · 02-01-2014 12:41pm

The river Liffey is still looking high on the Liberty Hall Webcam, lucky we had no wind or heavy rain overnight.

http://www.siptu.ie/media/webcam/

Villain · 02-01-2014 12:46pm

West is going to get another battering

outsourced_ire · 02-01-2014 12:55pm

CORK CITY TIDAL FLOOD ALERT ...

A tidal surge & strong south to south easterly winds are predicted over the next number of days. These factors combined will increase the tide levels over the natural tide levels.

During this period, prior to and after these tides, there is a danger of Tidal Flooding in the City.

It is possible that flooding may occur in the low lying areas of the City Centre including in particular South Terrace, Trinity Bridge, Rutland Street, Cotter Street, Stable Lane, Union Quay, Morrisons Quay, Proby’s Quay, Frenchs Quay, Crosses Green, Sharman Crawford St, Wandesford Quay, Lavitts Quay, Kyrls Street & Kyrls Quay, Coal Quay and Lapps Quay

Other Areas at potential risk are South Mall, Oliver Plunkett Street, Pembroke St., Princes Street, Marlborough Street, Cook Street, Winthrop Street, Kennedy Quay, Centre Park Road, Monahan’s Road, Georges Quay, and the low lying areas of the City Centre.

Householders and businesses should take Precautionary Measures to protect property.

http://www.corkcity.ie/news/mainbody,64851,en.html

average_runner · 02-01-2014 12:56pm

DominoDub wrote: »

The river Liffey is still looking high on the Liberty Hall Webcam, lucky we had no wind or heavy rain overnight.

http://www.siptu.ie/media/webcam/

Its high but seen higher. Is it expected to still rise more?

DominoDub · 02-01-2014 1:12pm

This is a pic of the Liffey at Halfpenny Bridge at High Tide today ..taken from Twitter @fxgeek

kerrywez · 02-01-2014 1:16pm

Unless the magnetic field of the earth has changed, the winds will be out of the SW and not E or SE and was stated in that warning for Cork, you only have to look at the Attachment Villain posted, which clearly shows the wind from the SW.

Regards Wez

Villain · 02-01-2014 1:42pm

Should this not be a level 2 threat level here now?

ninebeanrows · 02-01-2014 1:44pm

Still some uncertainty about where this low will track exactly and also some uncertainty about the small disturbance following behind.

Still uncertainty whether this will be a more widespread windstorm or something more benign.

Here is an example of a more widespread windstorm from the GEFS 6z suite, a number similar to this.

gens-18-1-18.png?6

howlinwolf · 02-01-2014 2:11pm

its looking quite small in mass but its winding up nicely

ninebeanrows · 02-01-2014 2:32pm

Any chance of a level 2 in the thread title? This will not be that much less severe than the Stephen's Night storm.

cyclops999 · 02-01-2014 2:46pm

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Connacht, Donegal, Clare, Cork, Kerry and Limerick

Becoming stormy this evening and tonight and continuing for a time tomorrow with South to Southwest winds mean speed 65 to 90 km/hr with gusts 110 to 130 km/hr. Heavy rain, high tides and high seas also, with local flooding, especially in coastal areas.

Issued:
Thursday 02 January 2014 09:00

Valid:
Thursday 02 January 2014 17:00 to Friday 03 January 2014 14:00

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan, Tipperary and Waterford

Becoming extremely windy or stormy this evening and tonight and continuing for a time tomorrow with South to Southwest winds mean speed 55 to 80 km/hr with gusts 90 to 110 km/hr. Risk of coastal flooding.

Issued:
Thursday 02 January 2014 09:00

Valid:
Thursday 02 January 2014 17:00 to Friday 03 January 2014 14:00

Atlantic Storm Watch & Coastal Flooding Events: January 2014

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