Heavy Snow at times next week especially after midweek

Trogdor · 16-02-2010 5:24pm

owenc wrote: »

dicks...

Banned until a bit more maturity and understanding makes it his way

faktisperminute · 16-02-2010 5:27pm

perfect lookin chart

Speak Now · 16-02-2010 5:31pm

faktisperminute wrote: »

perfect lookin chart

Take those charts with a big bag of salt

WolfeIRE · 16-02-2010 5:31pm

tinners wrote: »

Guys what is the warmest upper temp that would support a snowfall ?

Snow fell here today when the uppers at 1500m or so (850hpa) were no more than -5c. It was wet snow however but certainly would have settled should it have continued. -8c or higher is preferable. Don't forget that air temps closer to the surface must be preferably 2c or lower for any falling precip to fall as snow and not melt before reaching the surface.

That's my basic understanding of it but does not take into account dew points and/or the intensity of precip which can often override those 'preferable upper temp' conditions.

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 16-02-2010 5:34pm

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Snow fell here today when the uppers at 1500m or so (850hpa) were no more than -5c. It was wet snow however but certainly would have settled should it have continued. -8c or higher is preferable. Don't forget that air temps closer to the surface must be preferably 2c or lower for any falling precip to fall as snow and not melt before reaching the surface.

That's my basic udnertsanding of it but does not take into account dew points and/or the intensity of precip which can often override those 'warmest upper temp' conditions.

Thanks Wolfe, I was wondering when I saw these easterlies for tomorrow, goes with -5 uppers so would you think there might be a few showers coming in from the Irish Sea ? or I might be reading it all madly wrong !!!

Speak Now · 16-02-2010 5:34pm

tinners wrote: »

Guys what is the warmest upper temp that would support a snowfall ?

That's a interesting one for those who know their stuff (Not me :pac:)
I'd assume there's no one figure as it's all linked to dew points.
Christmas morning was an intersting one with upper temps warmer than 2M temps, most saw freezing rain from that though not snow.

WolfeIRE · 16-02-2010 5:39pm

tinners wrote: »

Thanks Wolfe, I was wondering when I saw these easterlies for tomorrow, goes with -5 uppers so would you think there might be a few showers coming in from the Irish Sea ? or I might be reading it all madly wrong !!!

I would expect to see some showers along the east coast tomorrow but not making much inroads inland. Showers will mostly be of rain/sleet but will most likely be of sleet/graupel on higher ground (above 200m or so).

Winds shift again thereafter and the risk of showers here consequently diminishes.

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 16-02-2010 5:43pm

WolfeIRE wrote: »

I would expect to see some showers along the east coast tomorrow but not making much inroads inland. Showers will mostly be of rain/sleet but will most likely be of sleet/graupel on higher ground (above 200m or so).

Winds shift again thereafter and the risk of showers here consequently diminishes.

Thanks Wolfe, you are a very helpful chap !!!! :pac:

Seaneh · 16-02-2010 5:47pm

soooooo, is it going to snow or no?

In athlone, what are the chance sof snow ****ing with my ****?

Deep Easterly · 16-02-2010 6:25pm

A couple of very short-lived spurts of heavy rain here over the last hour. Heavy looking, slow moving shower to my near west and northwest but not making into town. Calm and nothingness continues...

WolfeIRE · 16-02-2010 6:27pm

Air Temp 4c
Dew Point -0.5c

wind light westerly

Band of showery activity moving SE towards west and SW below

PRECIP charts up to 7pm.

munsterlegend · 16-02-2010 6:42pm

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Air Temp 4c
Dew Point -0.5c

wind light westerly

Band of showery activity moving SE towards west and SW below

PRECIP charts up to 7pm.

thanks wolfe...you're keeping this forum going today! you'll probably definately see some white stuff tonight.

nacho libre · 16-02-2010 6:43pm

Deep Easterly wrote: »

A couple of very short-lived spurts of heavy rain here over the last hour. Heavy looking, slow moving shower to my near west and northwest but not making into town. Calm and nothingness continues...

this will cheer you up paddy1;)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eDa40nOCat8

faktisperminute · 16-02-2010 6:43pm

finally after 15min of rain turned to really big white flakes

snows heavily!
Location : northwest of roscommon!

WolfeIRE · 16-02-2010 6:46pm

thanks munster. I am very confident that snow will fall in parts of munster and Connaught tonight. Whether it stays on the ground where it does fall past midday tomorrow is another matter. Temps are dropping countrywide now. This coupled with marginal upper air temps of -5c and intense precip could very well spring some surprises for low lying areas of the province tonight. I have no doubt that the kerry mountains will look well in the morning.

I hope Mallow gets more than a flippn' pancake tonight m8:)

ps...this radar highlights that band of showers i refered to
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/

munsterlegend · 16-02-2010 6:50pm

WolfeIRE wrote: »

thanks munster. I am very confident that snow will fall in parts of munster and Connaught tonight. Whether it stays on the ground where it does fall past midday tomorrow is another matter. Temps are dropping countrywide now. This coupled with marginal upper air temps of -5c and intense precip could very well spring some surprises for low lying areas of the province tonight. I have no doubt that the kerry mountains will look well in the morning.

I hope Mallow gets more than a flippn' pancake tonight m8:)

ps...this radar highlights that band of showers i refered to
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/

will it spread that far inland is my first worry and second of all will it be of snow?! we live in hope. i'm hopeful but not very confident!

WolfeIRE · 16-02-2010 6:53pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

will it spread that far inland is my first worry and second of all will it be of snow?! we live in hope. i'm hopeful but not very confident!

Certainly will hit much of kerry, west clare, Galway, west cork and west limerick. High ground should see a very wintry mix and more likely sleet for lower levels.

Deep Easterly · 16-02-2010 6:54pm

nacho libre wrote: »

this will cheer you up paddy1;)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eDa40nOCat8

:pac:

Except it does matter to me...;)

flutegirl · 16-02-2010 6:54pm

WolfeIRE wrote: »

thanks munster. I am very confident that snow will fall in parts of munster and Connaught tonight. Whether it stays on the ground where it does fall past midday tomorrow is another matter. Temps are dropping countrywide now. This coupled with marginal upper air temps of -5c and intense precip could very well spring some surprises for low lying areas of the province tonight. I have no doubt that the kerry mountains will look well in the morning.

I hope Mallow gets more than a flippn' pancake tonight m8:)

ps...this radar highlights that band of showers i refered to
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/

:eek: Will Roscommon see any? Travelling to Athlone very early in the morning.

WolfeIRE · 16-02-2010 7:00pm

flutegirl wrote: »

:eek: Will Roscommon see any? Travelling to Athlone very early in the morning.

looking at the latest outputs, Roscommon should be largely dry overnight and for much of tomorrow. There are indications that there will be some activity tomorrow eve.

Deep Easterly · 16-02-2010 7:03pm

Radio One Met Eirennn forecast just on.

Highlights:

Rain or showers, heaviest towards the coast with possible sleet and snow on hills. Showers becoming more scattered towards the end of the week, and confined to the northern half of the country, where they may be wintry at times.

We could have told them that a week ago...;)

munsterlegend · 16-02-2010 7:06pm

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Radio One Met Eirennn forecast just on.

Highlights:

Rain or showers, heaviest towards the coast with possible sleet and snow on hills. Showers becoming more scattered towards the end of the week, and confined to the northern half of the country, where they may be wintry at times.

We could have told them that a week ago...;)

rampers the lot of them! they certainly know how to dampen expectations.

darkman2 · 16-02-2010 7:48pm

The risk of snow does increase from now on. Mostly it will be showery in nature but there are increasing signs of something more significant from the South toward the end of the weekend into the early days of next week. Also maybe something more significant for the Southern half of the country at some stage on Saturday but it's uncertain. Between now and then sleet and snow showers at times and staying very cold esspecially at night with frost and ice each night. Temperatures generally low single figures during daylight hours.

Su Campu · 16-02-2010 8:23pm

Not totally representative of the whole country, but the 18Z Valentia sounding this evening shows some low level warming since 12Z as maritime advection takes place to the south of the low. This is an indication of what the southern half of the country should see early tonight with the southwesterly flow, though there will be surface cooling taking place, probably leading to fog in places.

850hPa wet bulb potential temperature around 3-4°C confirming snow only above around 350m.

Unfortunately there is no Castor Bay sounding to compare it with.

2010021612.03953.skewt.gif

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 16-02-2010 9:58pm

Does the silence mean that snow has killed the internets ???!!!

Danno · 16-02-2010 10:02pm

Looking through the GFS and Saturday morning looks like being possibly snowy for Munster and Southern Leinster...

6AM: Precip

9AM: Precip

6AM: Upper air at 1500m

9AM: Upper air at 1500m

6AM: Surface Overview

9AM: Surface Overview

In summary, a shallow low develops rapidly off our SW coast Friday evening and moves across the Celtic Sea with a front over southern Ireland. A northerly airflow behind the front injects very cold air into the mix. All ingredients from the charts posted above suggest heavy prolonged frontal snow over inland southern areas in a line from Galway to Dublin. This certainly is a feature to watch over the coming day to two. Being at only 90 hours out, it could happen. Confidence 60%.

Danno.

Su Campu · 16-02-2010 10:32pm

tinners wrote: »

Does the silence mean that snow has killed the internets ???!!!

No, it means that owenc has been banned!

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 16-02-2010 10:32pm

Su Campu wrote: »

No, it means that owenc has been banned!

I was wondering !!! LOL !!! :pac::pac:

WolfeIRE · 17-02-2010 12:36am

showers starting their push inland over Munster. Very slow moving so where they do fall as snow, there could be a nice covering. This is most likely over higher ground in kerry and west limerick

ch750536 · 17-02-2010 12:45am

Am driving to Shannon 4:45am so Ill feed an early report...

Heavy Snow at times next week especially after midweek

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