Punchestown festival 2021

Deleted User wrote: »

I lumped into The Priests Leap anti-post for the Stayers Hurdle before his race in Clonmel in early March. Won that at a canter at 2/7 under very soft to pure muck conditions.

Based on that performance he's certainly a stayer, and still available at 2/1. I don't really know if the change in conditions will impact him, but up against a very competitive field. Was with A Moore, but now with G Cromwell (no offence to Moore, but Cromwell is different gravy).

My head is telling me to lay off some of the bet, but I've decided he's going to romp home.

beg your pardon

Would be shocked if Rachel won, Ruby walsh was saying she'll need at least 8 winners as Townend will get minimum 3(think he's being extremely cautious here, after all this is Mullins main festival).

Patrick and Jamie codd also level, Ruby said if/when Paul has his in the bag that he'll allow Patrick better rides later in the week so Patrick should win his. I see he chose to ride Sir Gerhard so thats enough for me to pick him.

What a days racing ahead, having a few bets for small stakes.

Punchestown 3.40

Djasek and Scholastic singles and r/f/c. Very competitive race but both of these caught my eye last time and both will be well suited to a big field and likely strong gallop.

Djasek last time he ran over hurdles was given no chance held up behind an easy front running winner who went on to win on the flat since and Djasek himself ran well on the flat in a race since to finish 3rd despite running on too late. I get the impression he will like the better ground and Carberry will put him to sleep out the back and arrive there swinging.

Scholastic is another that will travel away lovely. Eyecatching in a few graded juvenile races on soft prior to going over to Cheltenhams April meeting into a juvenile handicap on nice ground where she travelled powerfully.
JJ had a decision to make and went to the lead before the last as was travelling so well. In hindsight id say he wouldve held on longer and will arrive late today. Plenty more to come from this girl.

4.50

I could make a case for 10 but have settled on Champagne Gold. All season looked to be a prep for the County hurdle for this boy where he went off 6/1. Emptied as if something was amiss that day but nothing i could find in the stewards report. I'm taking the opinion he just had an off day and were getting well compensated with the price.

5.25
Nube Negra is an insulting price, watch back his 2 runs this season,1st at Kempton and then the Champion Chase and how powerfully he travelled and how quick he jumps. Beat Chacun Pour Soi and should be a fresher horse than CPS also, CPS might be a better horse in Ireland but cant really understand the price difference.
Allaho was magnificent at Cheltenham over further and i think he could well be real good over this trip too but fact is he has never run over 2mile over jumps so to get put in here is a fair ask and though that Ryanair was a monster performance it may have emptied him and at the prices i couldnt back him.
Jockey on NN would be a concern for me if it comes to that to separate the horses but to be honest i don't think he'll have to do anything spectacular. If this horse was coming over with Nicky Hendersons name beside him he wouldnt be any bigger than 3/1 in my opinion.

The Novice chase should be a cracker too. I will likely sit back and enjoy but if Envoi goes out to 6/4 i might not be able to resist a little bet.

nube negra being completely forgotten about here.

chacun hype train still hasnt been de-railed

3.40 Hallowed Star 13/2. I think the ground and speed of the race will suit it if it gets into the lead.

4.50 Jazzaway 9/1 ew. Back from a break. Ground should suit. A second where beaten by Mrs Milner by half a length shows a lot of promise.

7.00 Precious Bounty 66/1 ew. Second of my horses coming back from a break. This is a bet on whether it gets around. If it does then some of its P2Ps show it has some ability. I don't think any of the middling horses do great here, and the favourites are no guaranteed thing either.

Plasandrunt wrote: »

Chacun on a right handed course on home ground is odds against? Up against Allaho who is totally unproven over 2m and a Skelton horse in a grade 1.

Lump job

I don't think you can blame the left-handed course at Cheltenham for his bad run as most of his big successes have been at Leopardstown which is also left. He had no excuses in Cheltenham he was perfectly positioned coming to the last and had nothing left in the tank. That said one bad run doesn't make him a bad horse.

I wasn't blaming the left handed course but CPS is 2/2 going right handed plus a C&D winner up against Allaho who is 0/2 going right handed and has never ran at the distance and Nube Negra who has never won a grade 1.

Think the price is massive personally and this is coming from someone who's never backed Chacun before and Allaho is one of my cliff horses

Plasandrunt wrote: »

Chacun on a right handed course on home ground is odds against? Up against Allaho who is totally unproven over 2m and a Skelton horse in a grade 1.

Lump job

Unusual criteria for a lump job.
Horse A(Nube Negra) beats horse B (Chacun pour soi). Horse A having his 3rd run of the season today. Horse B having his 5th run of the season despite never previously having ran more than 3 times and looked tired last time.
Despite all this horse B is the shorter of the 2.
And you think Horse B is one for a lump job bet?

posturingpat wrote: »

They probably didnt go fast enough. That tends to suit horses that were up with the pace. CPS was up with the pace Nube wasnt but still beat him:)

cps doesnt have a turn of foot like altior does, hes similar albeit not as good as sprinter in that he should be let gallop them into the ground

Chacun pour soi has his chance for sure. Just cant understand how anyone could claim hes a lump job at the price. Maybe people like to say lump job for the cod of it .

For me a lump job would be one I'd be looking at and thinking there are basically no question marks and the horse is value. An example would be Thistlecrack a few years back in the world hurdle. Had beaten all his rivals in the lead up to that yet he was available at something like 7/4 when realistically he shouldve been odds on.

A horse beaten by one of todays opposition(who is also lighter races and open to more improvement) and a field that includes some other dangerous horses such as Allaho who was excellent last time isnt an exciting breathing ground for a lump job for me personally.
To each their own though.

FiftyP wrote: »

3.40 Hallowed Star 13/2. I think the ground and speed of the race will suit it if it gets into the lead.

4.50 Jazzaway 9/1 ew. Back from a break. Ground should suit. A second where beaten by Mrs Milner by half a length shows a lot of promise.

7.00 Precious Bounty 66/1 ew. Second of my horses coming back from a break. This is a bet on whether it gets around. If it does then some of its P2Ps show it has some ability. I don't think any of the middling horses do great here, and the favourites are no guaranteed thing either.

Put an ew triple on this for 25p.

Edit: Put 50p on Colreevy at 15/2 as well.

Plasandrunt wrote: »

Chacun on a right handed course on home ground is odds against? Up against Allaho who is totally unproven over 2m and a Skelton horse in a grade 1.

Lump job

haha you are making it out that a skelton horse in a grade 1 is funny or something?

akelly02 wrote: »

shouldnt be even mentioning Chacun in the same sentence as sprinter sacre

sprinter and chacun are gallopers and thats the comparison im making

Milanative wrote: »

the way they finished in a bunch in the champion chase makes me believe they didnt go hard enough , hopefully townend really pours it on through the race

How would that suit him considering he didnt stay the last time

Milanative wrote: »

what are you talking about didn't stay ? he was beaten 1 1/2 lengths

beaten after hitting the front 2 out and faded up the hill!