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Winter 2011/2012

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Comments

  • #1602
    blackius
    Closed Accounts Posts: 469 ✭✭blackius


    derekon wrote: »
    Brian Gaze, one of the forecasters over on TWO has just posted the following:

    This may well turn out to be a mild winter, and I may issue a mild winter forecast, but the worries of some coldies at the moment are unjustified. The coldest and most prolonged winters have kicked off at Xmas or later, and in some ways 2009/10 was unusual, as the snow arrived about Dec 17th I think. Definitely a case of patience grasshopper, patience.
    Brian Gaze
    Berkhamsted
    TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views

    Hands off our land



    I think its fair to say no one knows what this winter will bring....it could go either way or just be average...!
    Ha Brian...snow arrived Nov 26th actually ..
    I'm happy enough to run with MT - January.
    MT was correct last year on the start of it.
    Quite a bit off after that in forward projecting a return of snowy cold for Jan 11.
    I'd expect he's so into his methods that he'll have tweaked his research for this years winter forecast I've a fair bit of faith in him so yes patience people!


  • #1603
    John.Icy
    Registered Users Posts: 2,015 ✭✭✭John.Icy


    derekon wrote: »
    in some ways 2009/10 was unusual, as the snow arrived about Dec 17th I think.
    blackius wrote: »
    Ha Brian...snow arrived Nov 26th actually

    ....


  • #1604
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    blackius wrote: »
    Ha Brian...snow arrived Nov 26th actually ..

    He is talking about winter 2009/2010 though (not sure why) so he sort of right on the dates.


  • #1605
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    Yep, first snow of 09/10 arrived here on the 17th of december, only last about 2 days though.

    I think people are trying very hard to pick holes in what he said to convince them selves that his forecast for a mild winter is wrong.


  • #1606
    Caff Caff
    Registered Users Posts: 164 ✭✭Caff Caff


    He is leaving it open when he says MAY... this mild weather is killing me!! Constantly feel as though my head is full and will explode...roll on the cold!!


  • #1607
    Wild Bill
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    Anyone know what has happened to Irish weather online?

    http://www.irishweatheronline.com/

    It seems to have stopped broadcasting on 31st October.


  • #1608
    redsteveireland
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,039 ✭✭✭redsteveireland


    Wild Bill wrote: »
    Anyone know what has happened to Irish weather online?

    http://www.irishweatheronline.com/

    It seems to have stopped broadcasting on 31st October.

    Some of the info and argument here.

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056445469


  • #1609
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    gfs-3-132.png


  • #1610
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    A glancing blow that develops into absolutely nothing unfortunately.


  • #1611
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 6,017 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Sorry wrong thread nevermind!


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  • #1612
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    redsunset wrote: »
    A glancing blow that develops into absolutely nothing unfortunately.

    Yep, still nice to see, and deep FI is a lot better. A heartwarming FI. Pity it won't happen *sniff*


  • #1613
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    maquiladora wrote: »
    Yep, still nice to see, and deep FI is a lot better. A heartwarming FI. Pity it won't happen *sniff*

    Well with the 528 dam line right over my house, it could prove to be something . . .and it's not even extreme FI!

    A million times better than anything we've seen over the last month!!!


  • #1614
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    thetonynator wrote: »
    Well with the 528 dam line right over my house, it could prove to be something . . .and it's not even extreme FI!

    A million times better than anything we've seen over the last month!!!

    Yeah, it wouldn't mean snow for here but still nice to see that line over Ireland at only 130 hours or so. :P


  • #1615
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    maquiladora wrote: »
    Yeah, it wouldn't mean snow for here but still nice to see that line over Ireland at only 130 hours or so. :P


    I was going to say not often it happens in November, and then i remembered last year . .. :P


  • #1616
    oisingeogho
    Registered Users Posts: 54 ✭✭oisingeogho


    uksnowrisk.png


  • #1617
    redsteveireland
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,039 ✭✭✭redsteveireland


    oisingeogho wrote: »
    uksnowrisk.png
    I love seeing those charts but they are rarely accurate as far as I can remember


  • #1618
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,025 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I think we need a big storm of some sort to take everyones mind off things :)


  • #1619
    Iancar29
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Jake1 wrote: »
    I think we need a big storm of some sort to take everyones mind off things :)



    :D:D:D:D


  • #1620
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Back on topic...

    18Z GFS is rolling, will it give us anything to smile about? Stay tuned...


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  • #1621
    only one
    Registered Users Posts: 130 ✭✭only one


    Anything nice on the charts showing up?


  • #1622
    jo06555
    Registered Users Posts: 1,118 ✭✭✭jo06555


    only one wrote: »
    Anything nice on the charts showing up?

    Really wish I knew too lets hope so ;)


  • #1623
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    You can see the GFS roll out here.


  • #1624
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Any more word from Joe B , he has been very quite this year , shame he left Acuweather , he got a lot more exposure there.


  • #1625
    davidsr20
    Registered Users Posts: 769 ✭✭✭davidsr20


    The fog in the midlands is very bad tonight and the first fog this year too,it also seems quiet cold out too :)


  • #1626
    dsmythy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,520 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    Maybe some sleety stuff over the northern hills next weekend? After that wait and see time once more.


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  • #1627
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    I think things are looking more hopeful in the medium term.

    From Day 10 things show some potential with the chance of some sort of mid atlantic block.


  • #1628
    Wild Bill
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    Weathercheck wrote: »
    I think things are looking more hopeful in the medium term.

    From Day 10 things show some potential with the chance of some sort of mid atlantic block.

    I do love a mid Atlantic block. :)


  • #1629
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    The 0z while not overly cold is promising as it's heading in the right direction with the NAO. But those heights to our north are still far too low for my liking.


  • #1630
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    The 0z while not overly cold is promising as it's heading in the right direction with the NAO. But those heights to our north are still far too low for my liking.

    Mild business as usual with a euro high according to the 6z GFS :(


  • #1631
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    I've heard the term "phantom" cold before, but I've never actually seen it in the charts! The friendly ghost is currently over Arctic Canada! :D

    gfsnh-2011112006-3-6.png?6


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  • #1632
    Tindie
    Registered Users Posts: 1,259 ✭✭✭Tindie


    There is some snow for Scotland on Friday!

    Here a week ahead forecast
    http://www.youtube.com/user/terratec365#p/u/0/jDWpQL8Fs4A

    and last year forcast
    http://www.youtube.com/user/terratec365#p/u/203/NvaaaQii8GU


  • #1633
    jo06555
    Registered Users Posts: 1,118 ✭✭✭jo06555


    Tindie wrote: »
    There is some snow for Scotland on Friday!

    Here a week ahead forecast
    http://www.youtube.com/user/terratec365#p/u/0/jDWpQL8Fs4A

    and last year forcast
    http://www.youtube.com/user/terratec365#p/u/203/NvaaaQii8GU

    The next couple of weeks should be interesting :)


  • #1634
    Musicman2000
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    jo06555 wrote: »
    The next couple of weeks should be interesting :)

    Thats if that Euro high dosent rear its ugly head again, and looking at FI this morning its could well make a return bringing more mild muck threw december


  • #1635
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Yeah nothing to get excited about at all.No real action till the New Year.


  • #1636
    dsmythy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,520 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    Snow in Scotland not exactly an unusual event. At least it signals some actual winter happenings for you snowbies.


  • #1637
    bb1234567
    Registered Users Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    Accuweather saying a high of 4 -real feel -3 in dublin on december 2nd and a low of 1 real feel -8. ive noticed accuweather nearly always forecast about 2 degrees higher than the temp ever is, so id say it'll be a high of 3 in dublin that day.and then it says rain overnight, wouldnt that turn to snow if they're saying itll be only 1 degree. Finally a definite change to colder weather soon,winters coming!


  • #1638
    bb1234567
    Registered Users Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    Mark Vogan has just posted that there is 'Large Scale change in the European pattern in the next 10 days!' - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5AaQ0k_BaBE


  • #1639
    pad199207
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,221 ✭✭✭pad199207


    ah here dont get hyped up on what accuweather say expecially that far out my friend:)

    But yes theres some signs (it was hints a while agao ) now of a colder trend


  • #1640
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    Accuweather saying a high of 4 -real feel -3 in dublin on december 2nd and a low of 1 real feel -8. ive noticed accuweather nearly always forecast about 2 degrees higher than the temp ever is, so id say it'll be a high of 3 in dublin that day.and then it says rain overnight, wouldnt that turn to snow if they're saying itll be only 1 degree. Finally a definite change to colder weather soon,winters coming!

    Except that it's 2 weeks away and will be saying something completely different by tomorrow!

    We disregard FI charts, but somehow we don't disregard forecasts made from FI charts!!!


  • #1641
    jirafa
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,468 ✭✭✭jirafa


    The Russian seasonal model is hinting to a mild winter for the UK

    composite-tsrf-prob-glb-HMC.gif


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  • #1642
    redsteveireland
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,039 ✭✭✭redsteveireland


    jirafa wrote: »
    The Russian seasonal model is hinting to a mild winter for the UK

    composite-tsrf-prob-glb-HMC.gif

    Blasphemy! :pac:


  • #1643
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,966 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    it's hinting at winters similiar to what we had for over 10 years before 2009 when there was non stop atlantic mild wet muck in western Europe and cold, snowy plunges from Russia into Eastern Europe and down into Greece & Turkey?


  • #1644
    pad199207
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,221 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Gonzo wrote: »
    it's hinting at winters similiar to what we had for over 10 years before 2009 when there was non stop atlantic mild wet muck in western Europe and cold, snowy plunges from Russia into Eastern Europe and down into Greece & Turkey?

    Joe bastardi spot on so far about the cold being centred over eastern and south eastern europe


  • #1645
    jirafa
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,468 ✭✭✭jirafa


    Below normal levels of Precipitation for British Isles.



    composite-prec-prob-glb-HMC.gif


  • #1646
    snow ghost
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,379 ✭✭✭snow ghost


    This morning I was greeted by the ominous spectacle – not seen for many moons - of the notorious local weather crow gazing at me intently through the window.

    Yes, my black feathery-arsed friend had returned to warn me of perilous weather conditions that lay ahead; far beyond the view of human eyes and science.

    His beady eyes traced around the window looking for the last of the spiders hiding there, then he looked forlornly at me through the glass saying “give me some of that nosh you leave out for those lard-arse robins”.

    It looks like wintry weather is not too far away… you have been warned. :eek:


  • #1647
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    snow ghost wrote: »
    This morning I was greeted by the ominous spectacle – not seen for many moons - of the notorious local weather crow gazing at me intently through the window.

    Yes, my black feathery-arsed friend had returned to warn me of perilous weather conditions that lay ahead; far beyond the view of human eyes and science.

    His beady eyes traced around the window looking for the last of the spiders hiding there, then he looked forlornly at me through the glass saying “give me some of that nosh you leave out for those lard-arse robins”.

    It looks like wintry weather is not too far away… you have been warned. :eek:

    I moved this post to this thread Snow Ghost, as there are enough winter threads already.


  • #1648
    snow ghost
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,379 ✭✭✭snow ghost


    Thanks Su, what would one do without you. :rolleyes:


  • #1649
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Ah poor Piers,:D

    ON THE QUESTION "IT'S MILDER NOW (18 Nov as I write) THAN WE THOUGHT SO WILL THE COLD BLASTS COME?". I say:
    Although the first 10 days of Nov were mild as we predicted it is true the second ten days, are/have been less cold than we expected. It is worth noting that:-

    (i) as we warned would be the case standard Met have had a lot of problems (ie forecast changes) in this period (since 11th Nov).

    (ii) the Lows tracking to South of UK into France/Spain / Med in the last week to now were certainly 'trying' to do what we had expected and then MetO models were struggling 2 days out.

    (iii) These type of transition periods are difficult and were lower confidence. Of the 8 periods through the month confidences and results are:
    1-4 85% YES
    5-7 80% YES
    8-10 85% YES
    11-14 75% NO
    15-17 70% NO
    18-22 65%
    23-25 75%
    26-30 75%
    Confidences in December are generally higher than the average of November.

    (iv) Although it has got colder in the 10-20th the reason for the delay to much colder may be random noise or more likely;-
    (a) events on the sun we hadn't grasped &/or
    (b)some unknown new things beyond SLAT6b we have yet to discover. On this we are in the unusual situation that both of the TWO ways (in this case) of looking at the present from situations in the past point to cold but we don't have it.

    (v) We will continue to watch closely and note there is an encouraging large mass of cold air East of Berlin into Russia extending down to Greece - Athens reached only 9C on ~16th and air over the Atlantic is also colder. Britain is at present in a milder 'tongue' of air, but a switch to colder later is still very possible so the forecast for later remains.

    (vi) We will report on any findings or changes on CR and on http://www.weatheraction.com comment sections.

    (via)(20-11-11) I have put some more notes - and there are readers comments - on
    http://bit.ly/sOFjJe
    More will follow later on 20-11-11



    Thank you for your support without which our forecasts could not be produced.

    Piers Corbyn


  • #1650
    dsmythy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,520 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    Dastardly sun playing tricks on Piers.


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  • #1651
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    Given the blandness of the current model runs, I decided a trip back less than 12 months down memory lane was in order! (Not my photos, all credit to Kilkenny Weather!!!

    Kilkenny, Dec 6th 2010

    sn3.jpg

    sn5.jpg

    sn8.jpg

    sn9.jpg

    sn11.jpg

    sn12.jpg


This discussion has been closed.
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