Winter 2011/2012

darkman2

...

DanWall

It's in the news today that there has been some activity on the sun, so does that mean the cold spell is over?

Lucreto

DanWall wrote: »

It's in the news today that there has been some activity on the sun, so does that mean the cold spell is over?

It is an increase in activity but still below there is should be. Anyway it will be next winter before we see any impact.

jimmy.d

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

pistolpetes11

James Madden wrote:

UK Winter Forecast 2011-12 (Final Outlook)
Some major indifferences amongst many forecasters about what this winter has in store for us at present.
The 2010/11 UK winter mean temperature (December, January, February) was -1.3c below average, with widespread heavy snowfall throughout November and December across many parts of the UK, as I originally forecast. Although my winter forecast also held true in terms of a below average winter as a whole for temperature, February actually saw a return to much milder conditions, that recorded a mean Central England Temperature (CET) anomaly of +2.6c. I did state in my January update that the stage the La Niña had reached, may influence some much needed and welcomed weather, which I originally underestimated in some of my much earlier forecasts. Even though I did forecast the return of La Niña conditions for 2011/12 earlier on in the year, a key aspect that I emphasised strongly on, was that the La Niña would not be as strong this time around.
I have fairly high confidence at this stage, that we will experience a much more prolonged period of increased jet-stream blocking in comparison to last year. This will bring frequent and widespread heavy snowfalls during November to January across many parts of the UK and Ireland, with below-average temperatures for the meteorological winter of 2011/12 as a whole. Of course there will be some moderation at times with geographical variations, but the overall theme for this winter will be very cold and snowy across many parts of the UK and Ireland. This is a logical conclusion based on the parameters I consider within my forecasts, any snowfall or temperature records broken within this defined time frame (November to February) or for the winter as a whole will be posted accordingly.
Earlier forecasts that offered specific locations are based on a different set of parameters and historical data, and are intended as a general insight. As to how a weather pattern can actually unfold a few days before is somewhat different, and I certainly can't claim to have the technology or finances to monitor these short range situations, as well as other leading and well funded organisations. I can however make the best of the resources I have available to me, with the integration of the major natural factors that I have studied in depth and consider within my forecasting analysis, to offer a fairly reasonable and reliable account of the weather patterns that are likely to unfold for a defined time period (several months in advance) and just as I have done over the past few years. Further updates will therefore follow and become more location and date specific as we head into and progress through winter. I will also be adding a review section to the Exacta Weather website shortly, to review the accuracy of forecasts issued in my own words, and not those of unauthorized publications.

Kalemm63

It's starting to get colder now, temperatures are dropping. Hopefully thats a good start for a very cold and snowy winter

Speak Now

Kalemm63 wrote: »

It's starting to get colder now, temperatures are dropping. Hopefully thats a good start for a very cold and snowy winter

A ridge of high pressure giving us a dry weekend

Kalemm63

Were there so many driffernt opinions on what the winter would have in store last year aswel?

Speak Now

DanWall wrote: »

It's in the news today that there has been some activity on the sun, so does that mean the cold spell is over?

What cold spell :eek:

Speak Now

Kalemm63 wrote: »

Were there so many driffernt opinions on what the winter would have in store last year aswel?

Yes same every summer and winter. Take all long range forecasts with a pinch of salt (grit). Even those that know there's stuff cant be certain of what lies ahead!

lilzor

hi all winter drivers could u see this topic ...

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=75322731&posted=1#post75322731

it is about snow and ice on the road ... maybe u will have some advice for other drivers ;D

TheMilkyPirate

lilzor wrote: »

hi all winter drivers could u see this topic ...

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=75322731&posted=1#post75322731

it is about snow and ice on the road ... maybe u will have some advice for other drivers ;D

Drive slow

dsmythy

Hate the cold.....

Having said that I see "icy patches" on the main met.ie forecast for tonight so enjoy that moment. Another firing shot of the descent of the cold, sigh.

tylercollins

First frost tonight in Derry! Hopefully the start of more things to come.

BEASTERLY

Third sharp frost in a row here last night, the fifth this autumn. Overnight low of -3.4c. It's getting closer lads

Tindie

Here is the week ahead forecast 2010 (year ago today)
http://www.youtube.com/user/terratec365#p/u/214/Q1Rzn33s_fo


This year week ahead forecast
http://www.youtube.com/user/terratec365#p/u/0/pnfn2w5fZxo

Much milder then last year!

mcriot29

anyone know why joe b has still no euro winter forecast out yet or if he as what is it telling us
also irishweatheronline why is the website not been updated in a week are they closed down or what
roll on the snow:)

Kippure

mcriot29 wrote: »

anyone know why joe b has still no euro winter forecast out yet or if he as what is it telling us
also irishweatheronline why is the website not been updated in a week are they closed down or what
roll on the snow:)

Some one on here posted a twitter comment from joe " western europe winter comes early get ready to freeze" something along those lines...

jimmy.d

Tindie wrote: »

Here is the week ahead forecast 2010 (year ago today)
http://www.youtube.com/user/terratec365#p/u/214/Q1Rzn33s_fo


This year week ahead forecast
http://www.youtube.com/user/terratec365#p/u/0/pnfn2w5fZxo

Much milder then last year!

dont think so no frosts last year and last year they had north east winds this year is way cooler only time will tell

Iancar29

mcriot29 wrote: »

Also
irishweatheronline why is the website not been updated in a week are they closed down or what
roll on the snow:)

Mark is away... of what i know only he updates the site.

Im helping out with the FB for the time -being.

Conor30

Kippure wrote: »

Some one on here posted a twitter comment from joe " western europe winter comes early get ready to freeze" something along those lines...

On Dec 4th, he wrote:

Heh Europe,,, looks like blocking may be rocking early this year. Get the winter woolies ready for possible December to remember

Kippure

I found this....

Joe says this is his winter outlook for the UK. It was apparently released on October 5, entitled Euro winter outlook. I did read it, but did not realise it was the official winter forecast.

Euro Winter Outlook
October 5 10:16 AMby Joe Bastardi
I posted a bit on this earlier, but here is what I am looking at in Europe for the heart of winter ( mid November to mid March)

A cold winter is forecast in major European areas in the north and west , with above normal snowfall, but the same wild card of blocking that affects the US would affect here too. The idea is that the winter backs off a bit in January, but with most of Europe further north than the US it comes back anyway in Feburary. The models and the analogs have major late season cold, but the models are over the south rather than the north, implying they are seeing a threat of blocking. In any case, I would plan on using as much snow and ice fighting equipment as last year and get ready to focus on the center of the continent for much of the winter, though once again the UK will remember this as a colder than normal winter, in spite of December not being as bad as last year ( if it is, then perhaps the ice age truly is coming)

I will get more detailed later on with this

ciao for now



2 JB tweets 4th of November.

"Heh Europe,,, looks like blocking may be rocking early this year. Get the winter woolies ready for possible December to remember"

"NAO may go negative for December, meaning 3rd cold one in row for Europe, US east and far east ( though from different source)"

Hue.G rection

This thread has been going mad in the past few weeks! I'm no weather forecast expert by any account and I don't understand half these words you guys use but I still love reading this thread!

It's mad to think that in just 3 weeks time we might be under a blanket of snow! (my dream!) I'm so bloody excited that i'm going to but my sled this week :P

Thanks all

Bishop_Donal

This will be dublin shortly:

www.accuweather.com/blogs/home-garden/earth-you/57224/video-snowstorm-timelapse-in-c.asp

sh1tstirrer

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Third sharp frost in a row here last night, the fifth this autumn. Overnight low of -3.4c. It's getting closer lads

It's only a grass frost :rolleyes: If it were a sharp frost everything would be frozen solid in the morning

BEASTERLY

sh1tstirrer wrote: »

It's only a grass frost :rolleyes: If it were a sharp frost everything would be frozen solid in the morning

Emmm, if it was just a grass frost the air temp would be above 0 all night, in fact it was below zero from about 6.30pm yesterday right through the night.

I like the way that you think just because it was a grass frost where you are it's the same for everybody else. 3.4 below zero is cold for any time of the year. And fyi everything was frozen solid, car needed a serious de-icing job, poodles well frozen etc.

fizzycyst

poodles well frozen

You should really bring the poor things to the vet Beasterly

thetonynator

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Emmm, if it was just a grass frost the air temp would be above 0 all night, in fact it was below zero from about 6.30pm yesterday right through the night.

I like the way that you think just because it was a grass frost where you are it's the same for everybody else. 3.4 below zero is cold for any time of the year. And fyi everything was frozen solid, car needed a serious de-icing job, poodles well frozen etc.

Look at the username.

:pac:

Villain

Going to get much milder for a while and then it gets near the time we can start hoping for some cold blasts.

Last years November was a one off for me could happen again but Novermber usually doesn't delivers for us Snow lovers.

johngalway

BEASTERLY wrote: »

poodles well frozen etc.

Did ya not have them in the house? :eek: