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Storm Ciara - Strong Winds & Potential Snow **TECHNICAL DISCUSSION**

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,065 ✭✭✭Santy2015


    Joanna with a very good forecast just there! Upgrades likely tomorrow


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 842 ✭✭✭BullBauld


    Possible drifting mentioned on weather forecast there.....yarrrrrr.


  • Registered Users Posts: 672 ✭✭✭TTLF
    save the trouble and jazz it up


    There is Monday's prolonged snowfall for the southern half of the country. Where that line across the country precisely is between the haves and have-nots remains to be nailed down.

    fax72s.gif?0

    On this chart, Munster, most of Connaught and most of Leinster having a fun day.

    5 - 10 cms should be expected but more on high ground.

    I know this is a silly annoying question, but how does the capital fare in that chart


  • Registered Users Posts: 70 ✭✭Dancewithme


    I wonder if that leahyl girl has seen your post kermit


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,466 ✭✭✭mayo.mick


    Last 20hrs here in east Mayo

    EQM5F5BX0AAB1je?format=png&name=small


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,966 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    TTLF wrote: »
    I know this is a silly annoying question, but how does the capital fare in that chart

    I would imagine most of the snow would be south of Dublin to Galway. I'm hoping it moves north by about 100km so we can finally see some flakes.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 358 ✭✭YanSno


    That feature i was talking about we will have to wait until tomorrow or Sunday to know exactly how far north it will go . At the moment looks like Galway and South Dublin line. There could be up to 5cm the Southern half of the country by Monday evening.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Surprised at how wild it has gone here in the last 15 mins with frequent gusts over 40 knots. Quite the racket.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,207 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Surprised at how wild it has gone here in the last 15 mins with frequent gusts over 40 knots. Quite the racket.

    same here in Castlebar. Rain belting off the windows!


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 590 ✭✭✭Monkeynut


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Surprised at how wild it has gone here in the last 15 mins with frequent gusts over 40 knots. Quite the racket.




    Where is here. I am here. Malahide


    :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 88 ✭✭Holy Duck


    On this chart, Munster, most of Connaught and most of Leinster having a fun day.


    The man from Del Monte says yes


  • Registered Users Posts: 234 ✭✭konman


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Surprised at how wild it has gone here in the last 15 mins with frequent gusts over 40 knots. Quite the racket.

    I was just about to post the same, is there a small low passing over, looks like a small circulation on the radar. 5 miles south of Tuam.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,073 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Comparison of an ICON and EURO4 chart issued just before Storm Brendan on 13-1-20 and today's ICON 18Z and ARPEGE 12Z for this Sunday. ICON did better than ECM for Storm Brendan by far, ECM overestimated the wind speeds by about 10 km/h or so I would reckon and much more in the SE .Brendan's core and strongest winds stayed off the W coast that day keeping the strongest winds along the NW, W and S coasts.

    Not as strong looking for the coasts on this run , the biggest difference is the higher and more sustained wind speeds inland combined with the heavy driving rain from this storm.

    Jz950jM.png


    OjgCEXU.png

    iconeu_uk1-52-50-0_ivd4.png

    iconeu_uk1-52-440_fwx1.png

    arpegeuk-52-53-0_iwo2.png

    anim_hqi5.gif

    anim_iys6.gif

    anim_rip1.gif

    Accumulations from Fri day evening, Sat and Sunday

    arpegeuk-25-58-0_joi2.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    konman wrote: »
    I was just about to post the same, is there a small low passing over, looks like a small circulation on the radar. 5 miles south of Tuam.

    Hard to know, but looking at the isobar map (based on the GFS 12z) for the present moment, nothing seems untoward, except maybe the sharp wind shift that must be associated with some sort of trough.

    rUrxwmq.png

    New Moon



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Monkeynut wrote: »
    Where is here. I am here. Malahide


    :)

    Tuam, the original and rightful capital of Ireland.

    New Moon



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 358 ✭✭YanSno


    It's a small circulation simulated by the upper atmosphere. Jet stream coming in from the southwest and winds blowing from the west in a much lower hpa.


  • Registered Users Posts: 227 ✭✭mobil 222


    Anyone remember a storm that developed on St Stephans Day back sometime in the early 90' i think.
    It was very bad for a good part of the day with lots of damage .From what i can remember the NW got hit the worst.
    The next morning it snowed and i remember the electricity been been out for a day and a half because crews could not get to faults because of all the snow


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,207 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    mobil 222 wrote: »
    Anyone remember a storm that developed on St Stephans Day back sometime in the early 90' i think.
    It was very bad for a good part of the day with lots of damage .From what i can remember the NW got hit the worst.
    The next morning it snowed and i remember the electricity been been out for a day and a half because crews could not get to faults because of all the snow

    was it this one https://www.met.ie/cms/assets/uploads/2017/08/Dec1998_Storm.pdf


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,112 ✭✭✭Redriddick


    Extremely windy here in Roscommon...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    All quite again here now. Top 10m mean speed from that little spurt was 26 knots with with top gust of 45 knots. Nothing particularly heavy shower wise which makes it all the stranger.

    New Moon



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  • Registered Users Posts: 672 ✭✭✭TTLF
    save the trouble and jazz it up


    Gonzo wrote: »
    I would imagine most of the snow would be south of Dublin to Galway. I'm hoping it moves north by about 100km so we can finally see some flakes.

    im south D by the mountains anyway, near Dundrum hehe


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 529 ✭✭✭Goldfinch8


    Hope I am right when I say that it may have been 1998. Really kicked off around lunchtime or just slightly after in Mayo and next day awoke to a nice fall of snow. Power gone for a few days after.
    Back to this evening- was fairly wild here about half an hour ago and in the real heavy squalls of rain that were beating off the window, I could make out either the very odd sleety flake and a little bit of hail mixed through it also. Has quitened down a bit again here.


  • Registered Users Posts: 366 ✭✭kittyn


    TTLF wrote: »
    im south D by the mountains anyway, near Dundrum hehe

    I have a funny feeling we will get to see some snow falling at least this time ;) Also in South Dublin on the side of the Dublin Mountains ......


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,913 ✭✭✭v638sg7k1a92bx


    kittyn wrote: »
    I have a funny feeling we will get to see some snow falling at least this time ;) Also in South Dublin on the side of the Dublin Mountains ......

    Dubs always have to jump in and make it about themselves.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭Naggdefy


    Dubs always have to jump in and make it about themselves.

    Leave kittyn alone. She's a lady. Everyone is entitled to wish for snow, be it Dublin or Skibereen.


  • Registered Users Posts: 672 ✭✭✭TTLF
    save the trouble and jazz it up


    kittyn wrote: »
    I have a funny feeling we will get to see some snow falling at least this time ;) Also in South Dublin on the side of the Dublin Mountains ......

    Took long enough, no Snow here since March 3rd 2019 during that event where the middle of the country was 1-2C and 0C DP

    Ninja snow that was!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,682 ✭✭✭Rougies


    Dubs always have to jump in and make it about themselves.


    There's another box checked off my event thread bingo card :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,309 ✭✭✭✭wotzgoingon


    Good tanning weather this.













    In a sun bed.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,322 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    I wonder if that leahyl girl has seen your post kermit

    She has indeed! Eeeek


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,315 ✭✭✭nthclare


    I remember years ago Dublin Kilkenny and Wexford nearly always got snow in the winter.

    Galway and Sligo too...


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,354 ✭✭✭jprboy


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    All quite again here now. Top 10m mean speed from that little spurt was 26 knots with with top gust of 45 knots. Nothing particularly heavy shower wise which makes it all the stranger.

    Had it here in North Tipp earlier too. Was looking at the radar at the time and it looked like a squall line had developed. Still seems to be intact across the Midlands.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,182 ✭✭✭pauldry


    LOUD thunder in Sligo


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,696 ✭✭✭Pretzill


    pauldry wrote: »
    LOUD thunder in Sligo

    I heard it all the way South :) lots of hail too.

    South Sligo
    90m asl


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,182 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Pretzill wrote: »
    I heard it all the way South :) lots of hail too.

    South Sligo
    90m asl

    We had some hail not too much. Heavier hail a few miles South

    5mm of rain so far from this

    I'll say updated totals each day but hope my rain gauge survives


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,182 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Ok so now its 3.7c and rains a bit sleety. This wasn't forecast was it?

    Ninja Sleet


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,073 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Was just looking up the charts for convection on Sunday and the power and lights went out here followed by a clap of thunder ( the Omens are good ! )

    Looking good for thunderstorms early Sunday morning ( especially in the SW ), tons of shear available, lapse rates ok, some very heavy bursts of rain .

    anim_qui6.gif

    DU8bPSq.png

    Po0ORFs.png

    oeQuiP6.png

    TFruHvC.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,918 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    pauldry wrote: »

    Ninja Sleet

    tenor.gif?itemid=4961243


    County Donegal doing well for snow tomorrow evening by the way. The forgotten county.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,497 ✭✭✭auspicious


    TFruHvC.png

    Should this be a concern?
    Roughly where will the 'eye' track overland? How big is it?


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭Snow Garden


    auspicious wrote: »
    Should this be a concern?
    Roughly where will the 'eye' track overland? How big is it?

    Well to the north of Ireland. It will hit Scotlands west coast.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,682 ✭✭✭Rougies


    pauldry wrote: »
    Ok so now its 3.7c and rains a bit sleety. This wasn't forecast was it?

    Ninja Sleet


    According to Arpege we'll be under -4 ish 850 hPa temps for a while tonight so some sleet likely in places, snow confined to above 700m asl. Milder air gradually moving in during the morning.



    dvhHhul.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,073 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    The advancing cold air mass.

    Showers turning increasingly wintry Late Sunday early Monday morning, turning more to snow showers during Monday and more so again during Tuesday.


    qbS4xZ0.gif

    anim_ort8.gif


    Fairly crude basic maps but ECM did very well predicting the last bit of snow we had. Only a rough guide to where might get some accumulations I reckon.

    KoMDsdy.png

    c50Y8l2.png

    QH4pcgk.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 590 ✭✭✭Monkeynut


    The advancing cold air mass.

    Showers turning increasingly wintry Late Sunday early Monday morning, turning more to snow showers during Monday and more so again during Tuesday.






    QH4pcgk.png


    I'll take 0.1cm


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,073 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    auspicious wrote: »
    Should this be a concern?
    Roughly where will the 'eye' track overland? How big is it?

    That chart is for wind sheer high up, it is one of the parameters when looking for convection and thunderstorms.

    From Meteologix ' This map displays the forecast deep layer wind shear in the 0-4 mile (above ground) layer. This is calculated by taking the wind vector at the surface and subtracting it from the wind vector 4 miles above the surface. The more the wind strengthens with height, the higher the wind shear will be, and the more favorable the environment will be for severe thunderstorms. Note that other ingredients are equally important for severe weather, and high shear values do not guarantee severe storm development.'


    You can see the the upper winds are moving at a slightly different direction , this aids shear. The center of the system is actually moving up near N of Scotland, see previous charts.

    Just a glimpse of thunderstorm possibility, will know a bit more tomorrow evening , hard to predict how much or where but will have some idea of general probability.

    YTa8mg4.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,073 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    The 528 dam line moving well S of Ireland by Tuesday.

    R144hD2.gif


    AX2UCEp.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,802 ✭✭✭snowgal


    The 528 dam line moving well S of Ireland by Tuesday.



    AX2UCEp.gif
    :(


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,682 ✭✭✭Rougies


    snowgal wrote: »
    :(


    It's a good thing if you like snow :pac:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,322 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    What does that mean exactly?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,101 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    leahyl wrote: »
    What does that mean exactly?

    The thickness of the air high up in the atmosphere, 528 usually indicates polar air


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,322 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    The thickness of the air high up in the atmosphere, 528 usually indicates polar air

    Meaning that we would be enveloped by polar air?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,802 ✭✭✭snowgal


    Rougies wrote: »
    It's a good thing if you like snow :pac:

    :eek: I can’t read charts for crap so!!!! Thought I was getting a good handle on them... looks too far south for us in that chart??


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