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Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion
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nacho libre wrote: »To be fair the ECM46 and Met Office have been doing the same for a while now.
By the way it started snowing here 30 minutes ago, and its sticking!!
Are you back home in that dump, otherwise known as Mayo?
:p New Moon
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Posted on TWO yesterday. Says it all about the UK Met Long Range forecasts his Winter...
"And the "Stopped Clock Award" for 2019 goes to.....
December 14: Through the first half of January there is an increasing likelihood for it to turn colder bringing the increased risk of winter hazards, especially frost and fog. Some snow is also likely with temperatures expected to fall below normal. However, there is uncertainty in the timing of this change to turn colder, and it could come before the end of December.
December 18: Through the first half of January, there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate with a greater chance of seeing east or northeasterly winds.
December 21: Then, further into January, most probably becoming colder and drier than normal, with an increased likelihood of easterly winds.
December 24: By mid-month there is a greater chance of colder weather, with an increasing likelihood of frost, fog and snow, with these conditions probably continuing for the rest of the period.
December 31: By the third week of January there is then an increased likelihood of a change to much colder weather generally, bringing an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow.
January 3: Towards the end of January, however, there is an increased likelihood of a change to much colder weather generally, bringing an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow.
January 7: As the rest of the month progresses and into early February there is an increased likelihood of colder weather to become established generally, which will bring an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow.
January 9: During the last week of January and into early February, there is an increased likelihood of cold conditions being established generally across all of the UK. This would bring an enhanced risk of snow and widespread frost, especially in the north.
January 13: For the end of January and into early February, there is an increased likelihood of cold weather being established across all of the UK, with temperatures continuing a downward trend to become cold or very cold.
January 21: As we head through February there is an increased chance of seeing very cold conditions developing with a greater probability of northerly or easterly winds.
"You've got to give them credit for persistence. However many times the weather proves them wrong they are not giving up."
That is a very long winded way of saying that they forecast cold in the later part of January and it now appears that they are forecasting deeper cold to come in early February instead. Just because they updated the forecast weekly doesn't mean they got it wrong ten times.
Meanwhile, it's mid-January and 1 degree outside and snowing (from a westerly no less) in much of the UK and in Northern Ireland. I had to scrape ice off my car twice today, in coastal Dublin.
Edit: toned down a little. My original rant quoted below if you want to see what humour a 12 hour work day puts you in
Kermit - welcome back. Frog shaped snow angels are in my forecast. Don't get banned again or we'll tell Miss Piggy all your secrets.0 -
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Kermit.de.frog wrote: »Couldn't agree more with Gonzo.
Variations on a theme but the direction of travel is toward a colder pattern by the end of the month. Between now and then it's a slack north Atlantic regime with a couple of colder northerly incursions (occasional wintry showers) and some cold and frosty nights.
Trigger for a real change looks to be between the 28th and 30th of January when the models see increased distortion and amplification of the jet stream (which is refreshing consistency after recent months) so we may see momentum across the Atlantic lost and Low pressure finally taking a dive southeast introducing colder conditions from the north or northeast.
This could be the out-workings of the effects of down-welling through the layers of the atmosphere from the recent stratospheric warming event at the pole registering with the models though it's impossible to say it is or isn't.
So yeah, changes imminent, it's more a case of "how cold?"...could be relatively benign or exceptional.
We shall wait and see.
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An unprecedented -4c now at Belfast Aldergrove, likely due to snow fields and clear skies.
Strange, the overnight low quoted on this morning's 06Z synop was -3.4 °C (grass min -9), yet the 05:20Z metar reported a temperature of -5. I seem to remember something like this before, so they must use a different sensor for metars, probably locater near the runway.
No snow depth was reported on any synops yesterday or overnight but a "covering" was reported in a snowtam yesterday evening. The latest snowtam one from 03:13 this morning showed two thirds of the runway cleared, final third with a patchy 25% covering of wet snow.
SWEG0003 EGAA 01230313
(SNOWTAM 0003
A) EGAA
01230313 C) 07 F) 5/5/5 G) 1/1/1
T) RWY 25 FIRST TWO THIRDS CLEAR AND WET
RWY 25 FINAL THIRD 25 PERCENT WET SNOW
TREATMENT ONGOING, H)AVAILABLE FROM ATC)
CREATED: 23 Jan 2019 03:25:00
SOURCE: EUECYIYN0
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