Cold Spell Phase 1 Discussion from 6th/7th January

George Sunsnow · 03-01-2018 9:02pm

Uncertainty is your only hope ie that the ECM overnight goes more easterly
The only time a southeasterly is any use is if it’s local and driven by an Irish Sea shallow low embedded in a freezing flow off UK snowfields in my humble opinion

Long fetch South easterlies are useless

Pangea · 03-01-2018 9:51pm

Very good detailed forecast here by Met Uk on the upcoming cold spell
https://www.facebook.com/metoffice/videos/10155468313539209/

George Sunsnow · 03-01-2018 10:22pm

Pangea wrote: »

Very good detailed forecast here by Met Uk on the upcoming cold spell
https://www.facebook.com/metoffice/videos/10155468313539209/

Yeah he’s brilliant,Very confident,puts the information across without any humming or hawing
I saw him on sky news yesterday talking about Eleanor

My view has not changed though,more easterly please less southeasterly Mr/Mrs athmosphere thank you

pad199207 · 03-01-2018 10:28pm

There still is the possibility of big backtracks (they would have to be BIG backtracks) tomorrow and Friday.

Stranger things have happened,

I just find it hard to believe that the current turbulent weather pattern at the moment will be that easy to halt and for winds to turn easterly.

George Sunsnow · 03-01-2018 10:34pm

pad199207 wrote: »

There still is the possibility of big backtracks (they would have to be BIG backtracks) tomorrow and Friday.

Stranger things have happened,

I just find it hard to believe that the current turbulent weather pattern at the moment will be that easy to halt and for winds to turn easterly.

I think yer man explained it well
That huge storm bringing the WAA up the west Atlantic
WAA builds high’s

Kermit.de.frog · 03-01-2018 10:46pm

So much negativity. So many snowflakes

The forecast has not changed one iota.

In relation to the wind direction from Sunday night to midweek, it's true that upper level temperatures are not that low on some models, however surface temperatures coming off the near continent will still be cold particularly at night with generally sub-zero two meter temperatures.

Daytime temperatures will typically be ranging 1 - 3c

I would not be paying undue attention to temperatures at the higher altitudes this far out - that's volatile to say the least and subject to quick changes.

It will take time given the orientation of the high to get the much lower temperatures to come around westward from the Baltic regions - but it's remarkable how fast colder air moves over land in the right circumstances.

What we may be seeing is the beginning of a long and progressively colder period of weather with snow ultimately for some and possibly many.

As regards the weekend nothing has changed at all. Dry for most but some showers on east coasts - these of hail and snow overnight Saturday toward east coasts. A very severe frost Saturday and Sunday nights practically everywhere - temperatures could fall as low as -5c in the north midlands.

What happens from Monday is still fluid and changing. The favorite outcome is a slack and cold east or southeast continental airflow.

This could be preparation for a far more potent easterly regime for later next week with disruptive weather - that is very much still on the table.

pad199207 · 03-01-2018 10:59pm

Tomasz on BBC.

“Definite change on the way”

Gaoth Laidir · 03-01-2018 11:16pm

Hang in, is this thread for Friday-Sunday or for later? Too many threads on the go...

pistolpetes11 · 03-01-2018 11:19pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Hang in, is this thread for Friday-Sunday or for later? Too many threads on the go...

Friday / Saturday and if it develops futher we will look at it then

Billcarson · 04-01-2018 12:25am

What about any snow potential later Fri night into sat morning , my eye is on that.

Kermit.de.frog · 04-01-2018 12:59am

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Friday / Saturday and if it develops futher we will look at it then

Saturday/Sunday

Gaoth Laidir · 04-01-2018 1:03am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Saturday/Sunday

Very tame affair altogether. No real low-level cold there to tap into and heights rising all the time.

pad199207 · 04-01-2018 1:05am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Saturday/Sunday

Nothing there screams worthy of a thread

Rebelbrowser · 04-01-2018 8:36am

the overnight 0z models are even worse for coldies I am afraid. This weekend gets a touch milder again and the easterly no longer happens except for a very watered down affair for a day on the ecm.

Villain · 04-01-2018 10:30am

The ball was burst yesterday, it has been buried today, not sure why people are in denial.

Kermit.de.frog · 04-01-2018 11:09am

This thread is for the weekend. As specified next week is full of uncertainty.

Post in the 120 + thread for that.

Rebelbrowser · 04-01-2018 2:32pm

Not what we hoped for but nothing mild about this weekend for east coast even on 6z gfs...

75-7UK.GIF?04-6

George Sunsnow · 04-01-2018 2:49pm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Not what we hoped for but nothing mild about this weekend for east coast even on 6z gfs...

Showers Dublin northwards on that
Mixed wintry precipitation probably
Nothing too exciting,certainly no need for a thread in hindsight but we have one now
Next week back to Atlantic goodness after our high sinks
Terrible model guidance in the last week,and an agregious error by me to be optimistic based on models that post 48hours simply discieve again and again
They’re fine giving a broader scale idea of what’s there
But for forecasting you need experienced human brains

JCX BXC · 04-01-2018 5:28pm

I'll enjoy the nice proper frosts anyway!

nacho libre · 04-01-2018 5:57pm

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Showers Dublin northwards on that
Mixed wintry precipitation probably
Nothing too exciting,certainly no need for a thread in hindsight but we have one now
Next week back to Atlantic goodness after our high sinks
Terrible model guidance in the last week,and an agregious error by me to be optimistic based on models that post 48hours simply discieve again and again
They’re fine giving a broader scale idea of what’s there
But for forecasting you need experienced human brains

Well intuition will always make you doubt model ouput showing an unstable north easterlies because nine times out of 10 snowy easterlies and north easterlies prove to be phantoms. That's why you won't see Met Eireann forecasters mentioning an unstable northeasterly airflow five days in advance.
Also, bearing all this in mind, it's easy for the posters who say i told you so... to be right. We should always, as has been said many times before, hope for the best but manage our expectations
if we live long enough we should see an easterly or a north easterly depicted on a model come to fruition at some stage. of course we- those of us who like snow, would all love if it happened frequently, but then again if we were guranteed heavy snow every winter, and violent thunderstorms every summer, would we appreciate them as much as we do? I doubt I would to be honest

pistolpetes11 · 04-01-2018 6:08pm

Whats the feelings on this ?

Close and move to general winter thread ?

P

sryanbruen · 04-01-2018 9:10pm

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Showers Dublin northwards on that
Mixed wintry precipitation probably
Nothing too exciting,certainly no need for a thread in hindsight but we have one now
Next week back to Atlantic goodness after our high sinks
Terrible model guidance in the last week,and an agregious error by me to be optimistic based on models that post 48hours simply discieve again and again
They’re fine giving a broader scale idea of what’s there
But for forecasting you need experienced human brains

Only said what happened to being optimistic because you told us to be optimistic, pretty hypocritical.

George Sunsnow wrote: »

So stay positive coldies

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Whats the feelings on this ?

Close and move to general winter thread ?

P

Yeah.

Birdnuts · 04-01-2018 9:54pm

Proper Easterly Blasts have gone the way of summer Spanish plumes these days!! Haven't experienced eithier for decades at this stage - I guess I was spoilt in the 80's;)

George Sunsnow · 04-01-2018 10:33pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Only said what happened to being optimistic because you told us to be optimistic, pretty hypocritical.

Frankly,this kind of nonsense is what makes this forum unwelcoming
In fairness you need to google hypocritical and negativity to get a proper understanding of them because you are wrong about my attitude

When there’s decent Synoptics ,I’ll suggest positivity about them
There was and I did
When they’re gone I’ll be realistic
My statement about being positive related to what we had in front of us versus common enough posts of the it’s all going to go wrong variety
I don’t work like that and I don’t believe anyone should
I’m also not of the stupid winter is over brigade

However What I won’t be at all is Alice in wonderland pulling non existent rabbits out of hats
There will be no rabbits for a few weeks I’m afraid
That dawned on me the other night
No point pretending

No need to close this thread,there could still be some snow about this weekend

sryanbruen · 04-01-2018 10:43pm

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Frankly,this kind of nonsense is what makes this forum unwelcoming
In fairness you need to google hypocritical and negativity to get a proper understanding of them because you are wrong about my attitude

When there’s decent Synoptics ,I’ll suggest positivity about them
There was and I did
When they’re gone I’ll be realistic
My statement about being positive related to what we had in front of us versus common enough posts of the it’s all going to go wrong variety
I don’t work like that and I don’t believe anyone should
I’m also not of the stupid winter is over brigade

However What I won’t be at all is Alice in wonderland pulling non existent rabbits out of hats
There will be no rabbits for a few weeks I’m afraid
That dawned on me the other night
No point pretending

No need to close this thread,there could still be some snow about this weekend

Whilst I disagree with your whole first point to which you were hypocritical - if you're going to be optimistic, be an optimist through and through (that's part of my nature..... I hate changes - I have to mature from hating so), I'm glad you're not part of the "winter is over brigade" because that brigade certainly starts more fires than it puts out. You didn't suggest positivity, you told us coldies to be optimistic, regardless of the negatives such as the stratosphere, the NAO etc.

I'd always go for realism any day over pessimism and optimism anyway. "When they're gone I'll be realistic".... you should be realistic all the time, not just at one stage.

I still stand by the fact of yesterday that you're going over the top and that the outlooks are far from the worst case scenario. There's even talks of a cold February or cold Spring now.

We'll agree to disagree, heavily on this subject, just like I have done so with many this past week.

I didn't mean any hard feelings in anything I've said to you though.

George Sunsnow · 04-01-2018 11:14pm

Syran,this is all a bit silly
You’re accusing me of being overall negative about winter because I’m realistic about current output going nowhere snowy anytime soon?
Forgive me if I’ve no time for codology like that
Let’s move on

nacho libre · 05-01-2018 12:11am

It doesn't look great if you desire snowy cold from the east, however it would be slightly misleading to say it won't be snowy anytime soon. We might get a potent north or north westerly blast in the next two- three weeks. The one positive about cold zonal at this time of year is the likelihood of being the right side of marginal increases as we go on. It won't lead to a foot of snow that hangs around for a several days, but we might be lucky and get a decent covering that lasts for a day or two.

Larbre34 · 05-01-2018 12:43am

Time to scuttle this puppy, its just shooting a corpse at this stage.

Meteorite58 · 05-01-2018 12:45am

Mod Note: Please adhere to the forum charter.

1. Please refrain from direct personal attacks on any person whether they are members of boards.ie or not.

3. If you wish you to challenge someone's views (on the topic of weather) then please question the post, do not just attack poster.

Charles Babbage · 05-01-2018 12:57am

Larbre34 wrote: »

Time to scuttle this puppy, its just shooting a corpse at this stage.

Stone cold dead.

pad199207 · 05-01-2018 1:51am

Ah lads just close the thread will yee?

Before it turns into a boxing match

Rougies · 05-01-2018 2:24am

I don't see the problem with having a thread for this weekend other than the title is slightly misleading now.

It will be cold and frosty with wintry showers for some, what's the harm in having a thread to discuss it? It's not a warning thread, it's a discussion thread. Is the Met Eireann warning level criticism leaking into thread existence criticism now?

I know we justifiably have a lot to moan about regarding lack of exciting weather in this country but can we at least enjoy a frost without bickering over nothing?

force eleven · 05-01-2018 3:46am

GFS 18z resurrects a stubborn Scandi high at least. Still all to play for, keep the faith...

Gaoth Laidir · 05-01-2018 9:36am

Joanna Donnelly on the radio said showers in the east over the weekend may fall as sleet and snow on hills and mountains.

Villain · 05-01-2018 10:11am

Yep time to head up Lug again

pauldry · 05-01-2018 11:12am

A Northeasterly airflow to the North of us currently beginning to sink down upon us.

May bring some good (frost, light snow)

You never know

Gonzo · 05-01-2018 2:15pm

this thread is still relevant to the brief cold snap, a cold weekend to come with plenty of frost and possibly ice on the roads. It just won't be very snowy.

kittyn · 05-01-2018 2:40pm

Then again you could say that we were not meant to get snow on night of the 29th of December but we did ....... So I guess Mother Nature will do what Mother Nature does despite if we want it or not lol

pauldry · 05-01-2018 2:49pm

Is Ice exciting enough?

Coz in Sligo it never stops raining (its either light or heavy)

Many many days Met Eireann has had during 2017 "mainly dry with sunny spells" but its been misty or rainy here.

Then on weather reports Markree shows no rainfall so it must be just Sligo towns coastal location and persistent NW winds even when theres a SW everywhere else.

So as ever its misty today but it will freeze on this tonight hence roads will be bottlelike

Gonzo · 05-01-2018 2:58pm

Sky News weather for what its worth is showing a peppering of wintry showers tomorrow on the east coast south of Dublin with mostly Wicklow, Carlow and Wexford at risk. The wicklow mountains could see some lying snow.

Villain · 05-01-2018 3:10pm

Gonzo wrote: »

Sky News weather for what its worth is showing a peppering of wintry showers tomorrow on the east coast south of Dublin with mostly Wicklow, Carlow and Wexford at risk. The wicklow mountains could see some lying snow.

Yep hence my post earlier about going up Lugnaquilla, Harmonie has it as snow only on mountains the ECM Meteogram show dew point well above 0c for Kilkenny.

Gaoth Laidir · 05-01-2018 4:26pm

And have a look upwind to our north and east and there's very little snow falling.

Mafra · 05-01-2018 6:36pm

A little snow last night on Mt Leinster

Meteorite58 · 05-01-2018 10:47pm

Some mighty cold temperatures showing up for Sun Morning, climbing to between 1C to 5C during the day and falling rapidly below freezing in many places again towards dark. Very cold Sun night/ Mon morning as well. Should be some good clear skies over the weekend for many, looking forward to getting into the garden after all the rough weather here in Kerry.

EDIT: Note these are 5cm above the ground temperatures.

Gaoth Laidir · 06-01-2018 12:15am

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Some mighty cold temperatures showing up for Sun Morning, climbing to between 1C to 5C during the day and falling rapidly below freezing in many places again towards dark. Very cold Sun night/ Mon morning as well. Should be some good clear skies over the weekend for many, looking forward to getting into the garden after all the rough weather here in Kerry.

That chart shows temperature 5 cm above the ground, not the normal 2 m temperature. Temperature this close to the ground will be several degrees colder on a clear winter's night.

Here is the 2m chart for the same time.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 06-01-2018 12:21am

So that's why my feet are always colder than my head.

sdanseo · 06-01-2018 12:40am

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

That chart shows temperature 5 cm above the ground, not the normal 2 m temperature. Temperature this close to the ground will be several degrees colder on a clear winter's night.

What's the cause of that? Radiated cold from the ground / lack of air circulation?

Gaoth Laidir · 06-01-2018 12:56am

sdanseo wrote: »

What's the cause of that? Radiated cold from the ground / lack of air circulation?

Radiated heat from the ground. If you look at the grass minimum temperatures (Gmin) on the "Yesterday's Weather" page on met.ie after a clear night you'll see the difference between it and the screen temperature (1.5 metres). The grass minimum temperature is measured with a probe placed in the tips of the blades of grass.

Rebelbrowser · 06-01-2018 1:05am

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

That chart shows temperature 5 cm above the ground, not the normal 2 m temperature. Temperature this close to the ground will be several degrees colder on a clear winter's night.....

GL, I wouldnt ever look for a job in the Indo or the Daily Mail if I were you.

Meteorite58 · 06-01-2018 2:51am

That chart shows temperature 5 cm above the ground, not the normal 2 m temperature. Temperature this close to the ground will be several degrees colder on a clear winter's night.

Ooops, missed that.

Cold Spell Phase 1 Discussion from 6th/7th January

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