Potential Extreme Wind Storm - Thursday 8th December

howlinwolf · 07-12-2011 12:13am

Deep Easterly wrote: »

For Donegal, maybe..

yeah its just the nomal run of the mill weather down here in the southeast:rolleyes:

Harps · 07-12-2011 12:18am

Definitely has been interesting around here, just as I'm typing its gone from reasonably calm to very stormy with heavy hail! Strong storm and more snow to come before the week's out so can't complain :pac:

snow ghost · 07-12-2011 12:21am

Deep Easterly wrote: »

For Donegal, maybe..

Not too bad here either Deep... could do with more snow, very windy out tonight.

Deep Easterly · 07-12-2011 12:24am

Harps wrote: »

Definitely has been interesting around here, just as I'm typing its gone from reasonably calm to very stormy with heavy hail! Strong storm and more snow to come before the week's out so can't complain :pac:

That's right, rub it in!!

07-12-2011 12:24am

its getting a bit gusty here in Lucan too. Hope we get lots of wind, I love listening to it late at night.

irish1967 · 07-12-2011 12:24am

Went from calmish evening to gale here in very short time. A taste of what's ahead for the week?

Deep Easterly · 07-12-2011 12:36am

Latest windspeed forecast from DMI.DK

I have been looking at this particular model since 2008 and this is the first time I have seen the highest echelons of the legend actually being projected so close to Ireland.

howlinwolf · 07-12-2011 12:37am

what im a little confused about lads is that this system is 48 hours away and still met eireann has no real warnings or reports on it at the moment on the website or on rte news surely there should be something about it even if its usual met eireann downplay stuff but theres nothing really saturday and sunday are forcast to be blustery and showery? not exactly what some people are sayin here im confused

Cul a cnoic · 07-12-2011 12:41am

irish1967 wrote: »

Went from calmish evening to gale here in very short time. A taste of what's ahead for the week?

Same here in Annagry, NW Donegal coast only we had lightening thrown in the mix..

Deep Easterly · 07-12-2011 12:44am

howlinwolf wrote: »

what im a little confused about lads is that this system is 48 hours away and still met eireann has no real warnings or reports on it at the moment on the website or on rte news surely there should be something about it even if its usual met eireann downplay stuff but theres nothing really saturday and sunday are forcast to be blustery and showery? not exactly what some people are sayin here im confused

Yep, a lot of things could change in the meantime since it is so far out but it does look increasingly likely that the north coast especially could see some very strong winds. From a meteorological stand point, the potential storm itself will be very interesting to watch, even if the worst of the winds miss us as it does look particularly vigorous and even potentially dangerous. With the lack of any real weather here in Ireland lately (with the exception of Donegal and Mayo of course!) we may as well have something to keep our interests up, even if the best worst of the winds keep from our shores.

irish1967 · 07-12-2011 12:48am

I think we need a full slap with these two storms to give us reference points for the future.

nacho libre · 07-12-2011 12:48am

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Latest windspeed forecast from DMI.DK

I have been looking at this particular model since 2008 and this is the first time I have seen the highest echelons of the legend actually being projected so close to Ireland.

yeah. it would be scary living on the outer hebrides if those are realised. meanwhile on one site i'm looking at it's showing gusts of 65- 70 mph early Tuesday morning for Tuam;)

Oscar Bravo · 07-12-2011 12:53am

Its coming up to 5 to Midnight so lets head over to Met Eireann on Radio 1/Sky 0160.

Pangea · 07-12-2011 12:56am

Deep Easterly wrote: »

For Donegal, maybe..

Dont know what rock you have been living under but the weather has been very aggressive around these parts in the past few weeks

Weylin · 07-12-2011 12:58am

am currently in east galway athenry/loughrea area,temp around 5 deg, slight breeze,no frost,and definitley no gales/storm yet..................

Deep Easterly · 07-12-2011 1:00am

Pangea wrote: »

Dont know what rock you have been living under but the weather has been very aggressive around these parts in the past few weeks

And did I not acknowledge that Mr. Pangea?

Sponge Bob · 07-12-2011 1:01am

GFS overcooks minimum pressures over 48 hours out. Twill just as likely be a breeze next week.

UKMO warning thursday and friday

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html?day=1

Pangea · 07-12-2011 1:02am

Deep Easterly wrote: »

And did I not acknowledge that Mr. Pangea?

You did of course, what I meant was surely you must of had some of this interesting weather?

P.S
Plenty more lightning strikes around here tonight :P

Iancar29 · 07-12-2011 1:06am

Pangea wrote: »

P.S
Plenty more lightning strikes around here tonight :P

:(:(:(:(:(:(:(:(

premiercad · 07-12-2011 1:10am

NOAA forecasting this monster's centre to head straight for Scotlands tip then track due east

00.00 Thursday Morning

and at 12 pm thursday :eek::eek:

irish1967 · 07-12-2011 1:11am

Whats the lightening link again. Nearly sure we just had a flash here.

Deep Easterly · 07-12-2011 1:14am

irish1967 wrote: »

Whats the lightening link again. Nearly sure we just had a flash here.

Two of the handiest:

http://www.meteox.co.uk/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=satradar
http://brunnur.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/index.html?

Quite a few strikes showing up in the NW over the last hour or so.

irish1967 · 07-12-2011 1:19am

And we did have lightening. Most excellent.

maquiladora · 07-12-2011 1:21am

18Z GFS ensembles for central Ireland, I've circled Thursday's storm and the potential storm for early next week.

premiercad · 07-12-2011 1:21am

and wave height in metres for noon thursday

10m ......anyone going surfing? :rolleyes:

only one · 07-12-2011 1:30am

Some day we will have snow in the south east lol

irish1967 · 07-12-2011 1:37am

High tide round 4pm here Thursday ! Yikes

fizzycyst · 07-12-2011 1:38am

only one wrote: »

Some day we will have snow in the south east lol

We did for a couple of days late last November if you remember. The joys of living in the sunny SE :rolleyes:

Redsunset · 07-12-2011 1:57am

Took a snap of Evelyn showing Thursdays storm for those who think that ME have not covered it.
]

naughto · 07-12-2011 2:05am

some very loud thunder in castlebar lights nearly went very very windy

Harps · 07-12-2011 2:07am

Interesting that they only have the low at 977mb whereas some of the models have it close to 955mb, I know it deepens quickly but looking at it in a similar position on the 18Z gfs its already around 960mb

Assume they're using the HIRLAM which seems to be underplaying the storm compared to the rest

Oscar Bravo · 07-12-2011 2:07am

Hey all,on the mobile.Loud thunder and severe gusts in Castlebar now.

nacho libre · 07-12-2011 2:12am

Harps wrote: »

I know it deepens quickly but looking at it in a similar position on the 18Z gfs its already around 960mb

Assume they're using the HIRLAM which seems to be underplaying the storm compared to the rest

the gfs has a tendency to over egg the pressure level only to downgrade a day or so before hand, that said there does seem to be good cross model on agreement on this being a severe event for Scotland

maquiladora · 07-12-2011 2:20am

Harps wrote: »

Interesting that they only have the low at 977mb whereas some of the models have it close to 955mb, I know it deepens quickly but looking at it in a similar position on the 18Z gfs its already around 960mb

Assume they're using the HIRLAM which seems to be underplaying the storm compared to the rest

Check out those isobars on the 18Z NAE run.

Some serious winds on the way for western Scotland there!

Looking forward to getting the first proper look at this on the NMM model on the 0Z run.

faktisperminute · 07-12-2011 2:22am

damn imagine if it was cold enough to snow when the strom arrives

Deep Easterly · 07-12-2011 2:35am

Mean windspeed at Malin Head on 44kts, or severe gale force 9 on 1am reports:

http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp

gusting 54kts (BF Storm 10)

Other reports (mean/gust)

Mace Head: 37 / 50
Finner Camp: 33 / 53
Belmullet: 28 / 54
Sherkin Island: 29 / 43

nacho libre · 07-12-2011 2:35am

faktisperminute wrote: »

damn imagine if it was cold enough to snow when the strom arrives

It will be in parts of Scotland. There could be blizzards with gusts of 90-110 mph around a 150 metres above sea level there.

nacho libre · 07-12-2011 2:52am

The winds peaks in the west and Northwest at around 3pm on Thursday according to this chart.

Pangea · 07-12-2011 3:21am

redsunset wrote: »

Took a snap of Evelyn showing Thursdays storm for those who think that ME have not covered it.
]

Just so you know, that refers to the force of the wind, not the actual 'storm'.
You can see Gale Force on the screenshot too.
It had the same for tonight as you can see from below. She did warn about structural damage for Thursday event though so as you said we have been warned

maquiladora · 07-12-2011 3:32am

UKMO warnings from earlier today for wind and snow for Thursday. These will be replaced with probably stronger and more refined warnings tomorrow.

Winds will increase during Thursday afternoon and evening. The public should be aware that winds are likely to becoming strong enough to cause some local disruption to travel services, and possibly some structural damage to buildings. On Friday morning winds will tend to ease from the west.

Presently Northern Scotland looks likely to experience the strongest winds.

Heavy rain and hill snow are additional hazards that will accompany the strengthening winds. There is also a low risk of coastal flooding on North Sea coasts during Friday.

Snow showers are expected late on Thursday and through Friday. The public should be aware that these will be heavy at times, and may give significant accumulations that could disrupt travel. Gale or severe gale force northwesterly winds will accompany the snow showers, perhaps leading to drifting over high ground, but these winds will slowly moderate during Friday.

Pangea · 07-12-2011 3:41am

63 knot gust at Malin Head 2am readings.

Redsunset · 07-12-2011 3:45am

Pangea wrote: »

Just so you know, that refers to the force of the wind, not the actual 'storm'.

Of course i know it's a reference to storm force winds,i was just merely highlighting to the ME bashers that the hazard is not being overlooked.

maquiladora · 07-12-2011 3:49am

Pangea wrote: »

63 knot gust at Malin Head 2am readings.

Impressive, thats about 10 knots higher than what the models were showing as max gusts for tonight there.

Something to consider when we look at the models for Thursdays storm.

Rougies · 07-12-2011 4:35am

Impressive gust alright. Maybe something to consider for Thursday's storm on how the models are handling the current setup, but I wouldn't look into it too much at all, gusts can be very random in every way, including location and intensity of course.

I might as well stay up for the 00z GFS at this stage

JONJO THE MISER · 07-12-2011 4:41am

Very windy here at the moment.

maquiladora · 07-12-2011 4:49am

Tracking slightly further south on the 0Z.

Stronger gusts for Donegal/NI on this run.

Rougies · 07-12-2011 4:53am

It's looking tighter, more to the south and slightly more intense to me on the 00z GFS run

Rougies · 07-12-2011 4:56am

maquiladora wrote: »

Tracking slightly further south on the 0Z.

any news from the NMM model?

edit: and what the hell is the NMM model anyway?
edit2: nevermind googled it like I should have before asking

maquiladora · 07-12-2011 5:00am

Rougies wrote: »

any news from the NMM model?

edit: and what the hell is the NMM model anyway?

Not out for another hour.

maquiladora · 07-12-2011 5:04am

Rougies wrote: »

edit: and what the hell is the NMM model anyway?

It's a hi-res (8km) model available through Netweather Extra.

Potential Extreme Wind Storm - Thursday 8th December

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