FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

mcburns07 · 03-02-2021 6:10pm

lucernarian wrote: »

I'd like to think a certain guy in Met Éireann knew we can't see ECMWF ensembles normally and gave a nice tidbit for us

:pac: it does look that way, a very personable tweet.

Oneiric 3 · 03-02-2021 6:24pm

lucernarian wrote: »

I'd like to think a certain guy in Met Éireann knew we can't see ECMWF ensembles normally and gave a nice tidbit for us

You can! just enter in your location and choose between graphs.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/web/classical_meteogram?facets=undefined&time=2021020300,0,2021020300&epsgram=classical_plume&lat=53.2719&lon=-9.04889&station_name=Galway,%20Ireland&altitude=-9999

sicknotexi · 03-02-2021 6:25pm

Some good runs but much of the very cold air has been pushed back to early Monday. No problem with that but I'd like a bit more than 48 hours cold as is shown on a lot of the gef ensembles. If we can get 3 or 4 days of it I'd be much happier. Hopefully the ECM can oblige.

Slashermcguirk · 03-02-2021 6:28pm

And there it is, even from Gerry Murphy

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/weather-warning-as-siberian-winds-set-to-bring-significant-snow-1.4475268

03-02-2021 6:30pm

Tom Cruises Left Nut wrote: »

When does this move to the sub 120 thread !

Good point.

snowstorm445 · 03-02-2021 6:30pm

Yeah the GEFS mean also blows up the low pressure and brings in the mild air quickly unfortunately. Although the heights over Scandi and Greenland don't go away, so it mightn't be game over if this spells ends.

Gonzo · 03-02-2021 6:36pm

Today is probably the last day of this cold spell remaining on this thread up to next Wednesday. Lets see what the ECM 12z brings and finally the pub run later. If all remains good then this discussion should move into the shorter range technical thread as we are almost locked into this cold spell from Sunday to Tuesday/Wednesday.

Arduach · 03-02-2021 6:37pm

snowstorm445 wrote: »

Yeah the GEFS mean also blows up the low pressure and brings in the mild air quickly unfortunately. Although the heights over Scandi and Greenland don't go away, so it mightn't be game over if this spells ends.

It only takes minor adjustment of a slightly more southerly track to turn that depression into a slider. Many of the longer cold spells like 1947 and 1963 looked like they were a few days from breaking down but rolled on.

We're in a great position this evening pre ECM as opposed to yesterday.

Rebelbrowser · 03-02-2021 6:41pm

Where do you get the upper temps for the UKMO? Would like to see temps at 144h

Reversal · 03-02-2021 6:42pm

Arduach wrote: »

It only takes minor adjustment of a slightly more southerly track to turn that depression into a slider. Many of the longer cold spells like 1947 and 1963 looked like they were a few days from breaking down but rolled on.

We're in a great position this evening pre ECM as opposed to yesterday.

The latest Met Eireann monthly predicts Atlantic making a temporary return late next week. They say the last two weeks of Feb will be dominated by easterlies with high pressure not the north.

Arduach · 03-02-2021 6:43pm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Where do you get the upper temps for the UKMO? Would like to see temps at 144h

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&carte=1007&ech=72&archive=0

TheMilkyPirate · 03-02-2021 6:45pm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Where do you get the upper temps for the UKMO? Would like to see temps at 144h

You can view them on Meteociel there's three small links just above the map. 850s are in the middle

nacho libre · 03-02-2021 6:45pm

Reversal wrote: »

The latest Met Eireann monthly predicts Atlantic making a temporary return late next week. They say the last two weeks of Feb will be dominated by easterlies with high pressure not the north.

That would be very good. Is Weathercheck responsible for writing the update;)

It would be in line with what the CFS has been showing for a while too.

almostthere12 · 03-02-2021 7:08pm

Would I be right in saying that GFS 12Z is bit of a downgrade?? The cold only really lasts 2 days, hopefully the ECM one is accurate one and the GFS upgrades to that over the next 24 hours.

Kermit.de.frog · 03-02-2021 7:17pm

Snow showers in to the east Sunday afternoon on the ECM...we are narrowing down the start point.

ECM0-96.GIF?03-0

Longing · 03-02-2021 7:19pm

almostthere12 wrote: »

Would I be right in saying that GFS 12Z is bit of a downgrade?? The cold only really lasts 2 days, hopefully the ECM one is accurate one and the GFS upgrades to that over the next 24 hours.

Yes downdgrade from the downgraded 06z. We are down to a brief cold snap;):p

pad199207 · 03-02-2021 7:22pm

Very positive start to the ECM but need to watch what it does with next week.

Gonzo · 03-02-2021 7:24pm

The GFS 12z isn't great. Hopefully an upgrade on the uppers and duration on the pub run and most importantly into tomorrows runs as we get closer. Hopefully the GFS soon backtracks on that big mild low pressure blowing up over us next Wednesday/Thursday. The GFS operational run has a good deal of support for this to happen so it has to be taken onboard.

Longing · 03-02-2021 7:29pm

ECM 144 is crucial

TheMilkyPirate · 03-02-2021 7:29pm

For people getting confused with talk of downgrades and bad runs. This spell is pretty much locked in for Sunday and lasting a few days now. The downgrades are with regard to the length of the cold spell.

ECM is not going to last much longer than next Tuesday either by the look of it

Gonzo · 03-02-2021 7:30pm

not liking this ECM, could be a fairly significant downgrade, looks like mild is making inroads at 144 hours.

Longing · 03-02-2021 7:31pm

The man from Del Monte says No

Snowbiee21 · 03-02-2021 7:31pm

Ecm says NO

Slashermcguirk · 03-02-2021 7:34pm

It sounded from Met Eireann that this very cold spell is pretty locked in. Would be surprised if that is not the case?? they seemed pretty bullish about it. I havent seen the charts yet but all talk about very cold weather next week.

mcburns07 · 03-02-2021 7:35pm

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

It sounded from Met Eireann that this very cold spell is pretty locked in. Would be surprised if that is not the case?? they seemed pretty bullish about it. I havent seen the charts yet but all talk about very cold weather next week.

People getting upset about 6+ days ahead

sicknotexi · 03-02-2021 7:35pm

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Ecm says NO

Really?

Gonzo · 03-02-2021 7:36pm

at 168 hours the cold spell hangs on for Leinster and Ulster. Could this be a battleground. This run is better than this mornings for the brits.

Snowbiee21 · 03-02-2021 7:36pm

sicknotexi wrote: »

Really?

Okay I’ll take that back, the latter looks good. I was to quick to judge one frame

Kermit.de.frog · 03-02-2021 7:37pm

Don't take anything beyond 120hrs at face value. Even 96hrs is a push right now. ECM is fine anyhow.

Slashermcguirk · 03-02-2021 7:37pm

I wouldnt be that bothered about 6 days ahead, lets just get the initial blast of snow for a couple of days, i wouldnt be as concerned about day 6 or 7 this far out.

mcburns07 wrote: »

People getting upset about 6+ days ahead

dexter647 · 03-02-2021 7:37pm

I would not be to worried about anything past 120hrs...Cold weather coming looks farily nailed on so anything after that is still up in the air imo:)

PokeHerKing · 03-02-2021 7:39pm

-10 uppers for most of the country from Sunday through Thursday on the ECM. Theres no downgrade on this run

Gonzo · 03-02-2021 7:39pm

just checking back on the 06z and this ECM 12z is a bit colder for Leinster and Ulster overall. A bit of a downgrade for the west and south-west tho.

Rebelbrowser · 03-02-2021 7:39pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Don't take anything beyond 120hrs at face value. Even 96hrs is a push right now. ECM is fine anyhow.

Kermit, you have taken on the status of a John Giles at half time in a Ireland match in the 90's. We all turn to you to find out how things are going even though we are watching ourselves!

Course that raises the spectre of there being a Bill and a Dunphy on the weather forum too.....

J Cheevor Loophole · 03-02-2021 7:40pm

Gonzo wrote: »

at 168 hours the cold spell hangs on for Leinster and Ulster. Could this be a battleground. This run is better than this mornings for the brits.

Long time lurker here, and total amateur. Would you mind posting a link to what you just looked at. thanks.

bazlers · 03-02-2021 7:40pm

Cant all be good this far out. Its one of the big ones though.
Hopfully ECM sleeps well tonight and wakes up the right side of the bed in the morning.

Rebelbrowser · 03-02-2021 7:41pm

PokeHerKing wrote: »

-10 uppers for most of the country from Sunday through Thursday on the ECM. Theres no downgrade on this run

Not getting near those temps down in these parts but ironically could do very well snow wise nonetheless.

Rebelbrowser · 03-02-2021 7:42pm

J Cheevor Loophole wrote: »

Long time lurker here, and total amateur. Would you mind posting a link to what you just looked at. thanks.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=120&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

Do look at the sticky at the top of the weather forum for weather links though - lots and lots more out there

TheMilkyPirate · 03-02-2021 7:43pm

That +168 is much better than expected. As I was saying this is locked in now for Sunday on, longevity is all that's left to iron out.

Surely time for a dedicated technical thread

Gonzo · 03-02-2021 7:43pm

J Cheevor Loophole wrote: »

Long time lurker here, and total amateur. Would you mind posting a link to what you just looked at. thanks.

at 96 hours:

at 144 hours:

at 168 hours:

Mild breaks through Wednesday evening into Thursday

nacho libre · 03-02-2021 7:44pm

FB6124C9-B631-4737-B94E-74F4499F77C4.png.fc4e13929340995a590e71ecb57bc4ac.png

If this is hanging on i'll take it. In any case the Me Eireann monthly indicated the Atlantic would return temporarily. No point focusing too much on a breakdown anyway.

Captain Snow · 03-02-2021 7:46pm

No Panic ... all is good:)

sicknotexi · 03-02-2021 7:48pm

ECM gives many the coldest 4 days since 2018. I'll take it.

Nqp15hhu · 03-02-2021 7:49pm

sicknotexi wrote: »

ECM gives many the coldest 4 days since 2018. I'll take it.

I am forecasted 2c highs throughout. I would expect colder than that.

Rebelbrowser · 03-02-2021 7:50pm

A better view of some of those temps. not great down here, not -10s widely either as suggested - but i know in an easterly you don't need such low uppers for sneachta

Captain Snow · 03-02-2021 7:51pm

Any engress into entrenched cold over Ireland from the Atlantic will produce dinner sized snow flakes.

Portweather · 03-02-2021 7:51pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

I am forecasted 2c highs throughout. I would expect colder than that.

Maybe this will happen like 2018!

John.Icy · 03-02-2021 7:51pm

Folks, it's the FI model output thread.

People are going to comment run-by-run on small details in the unreliable, point out the good and the bad, look for trends. It is the literal purpose of the thread.

Run to run downgrades/upgrades can and will happen and people will point this out.

If you're having a moan at people discussing Day 6 charts then don't visit the FI thread, no? 90% of the discussion in here does not end up materialising. Relax and look at the context. Every time someone mentions the word downgrade etc. DOES NOT indicate the cold is not coming.

There's a tiny number of people posting obtuse troll-y posts. Stop reacting and follow the folk who can back it up with charts.

Reversal · 03-02-2021 7:52pm

Return to mild is at day 8. Imagine what would be said if we treated the arrival of cold at day 8 as gospel.

Arduach · 03-02-2021 7:53pm

Is this the mild weather you speak of on Monday?

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST