Winter 20/21 - General Discussion

Clonmel1000 · 31-01-2021 11:29am

Another dreadful morning cold and wet. It’s tough trying to ‘hold firm’ until Spring which is realistically at best another 6 weeks away. Would usually be looking forward to a trip to the Canaries now to escape this ****e but obvs that’s gone too.

wirelessdude01 · 31-01-2021 11:35am

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Another dreadful morning cold and wet. It’s tough trying to ‘hold firm’ until Spring which is realistically at best another 6 weeks away. Would usually be looking forward to a trip to the Canaries now to escape this ****e but obvs that’s gone too.

I'd normally be in Lanzarote for midterm.

Oneiric 3 · 31-01-2021 1:44pm

Just as an addition to the above chart, this is what how it was reported by UKMet archive. (it covered the entire island at the time)

The same system was described as a 'squall line' as it passed over the southeast of the UK, so a good chance this is what it was, just on a grander scale, as it hit Donegal the night before.

ffarrell7 · 31-01-2021 1:48pm

Heavy sleet and wet snow now in Dublin 15...Blanch

glossy · 31-01-2021 1:50pm

ffarrell7 wrote: »

Heavy sleet and wet snow now in Dublin 15...Blanch

Not on my side as yet

nacho libre · 31-01-2021 2:38pm

Met Eireann monthly forecast

Week 1 (Monday 01 February to Sunday 07 February)

With the predominant low track to the south of Ireland the flow will be mostly from the east, however with generally lower than average pressure over Ireland they are likely to affect Ireland over the coming week. The easterly flow will bring below average temperatures, however on average they will be just 0.5 to 1 degrees below normal. The predominantly easterly airflow will bring slightly above average precipitation to the east and southeast of the country with below average precipitation expected elsewhere.

With the combination of above average rainfall and below average temperatures there is a marginal risk of wintry precipitation at times.

Week 2 (Monday 08 February to Sunday 14 February)

Upper level high pressure takes control with below average precipitation expected across the country. Temperatures will be slightly below average (0.5degrees) and owing to a more settled pattern the colder temperature are most likely to be linked to frost at night. With high pressure exerting its dominance any hazards will be mostly mitigated however, cold nights and occasional wintry flurries cannot be ruled out.

Week 3 (Monday 15 February to Sunday 21 February)

High pressure weakens its grip. It will remain drier than average across the country with no strong influence of low pressure currently evident. It will remain colder than average in a predominantly eastern flow keeping temperatures at around 0.5 degrees below average. Hazards remain frost at night and occasional wintry flurries can’t be ruled out.

Week 4 (Monday 22 February to Sunday 28 February)

With Low pressure predominantly to the southeast of Ireland temperatures will remain 0.5 to 1 degree below normal in an east to northeast airflow, there is evidence to suggest that precipitation will increase along the eastern seaboard and into the midlands, most likely in a showery nature with average or below average expected elsewhere. With the cooler than average temperatures persisting, greater influence of low pressure and slightly above average precipitation, the risk of wintry precipitation becoming more prevalent, mostly in Leinster and east Ulster, exists.

Gonzo · 31-01-2021 4:14pm

Despite the dry spell at the start of this month, January has turned out to be a deluge month here in Meath with the main event this weekend, it's been raining for the most part over the past 72 hours with a bit of a break early last night.

I am really hoping we get a 3 to 4 day unstable easterly but at the same time a dry spell lasting at least a week is needed as soon as possible as flooding is starting to become a real concern.

Artane2002 · 31-01-2021 4:29pm

Gonzo wrote: »

Despite the dry spell at the start of this month, January has turned out to be a deluge month here in Meath with the main event this weekend, it's been raining for the most part over the past 72 hours with a bit of a break early last night.

I am really hoping we get a 3 to 4 day unstable easterly but at the same time a dry spell lasting at least a week is needed as soon as possible as flooding is starting to become a real concern.

I was thinking a while ago that without the cold spell/snowfalls of this month, then I would've considered it to be a horrible month, it feels like there's been relentless cloud and rain.

Gonzo · 31-01-2021 4:33pm

Artane2002 wrote: »

I was thinking a while ago that without the cold spell/snowfalls of this month, then I would've considered it to be a horrible month, it feels like there's been relentless cloud and rain.

and despite the Atlantic being less active, it made no difference here in Ireland, the Atlantic basically hasn't stopped dumping bands of rain across us for the past 2 weeks. Fingers crossed we get the proper cold air from next weekend and cut off that Atlantic completely. I won't be looking back over this January with too much praise, most of the month has been horrible.

Dunsany now sitting at 100.4mm of rain up to yesterday morning but we've had alot of rain since then and with several more hours of rain to go so i'd expect to finish up possibly over 110mm of rain for the month. Overall mean is 3.5C which is a degree below average.

Majority of stations are between 120mm and 150mm of rain for the month while Newport is close to 220mm.

Arduach · 31-01-2021 4:43pm

This weekend, Saturday in particular, 25 years ago, 1996, brought a snowy Saturday to much of the eastern half of the country. February was a cold month, without much snow.

sryanbruen · 31-01-2021 4:54pm

Statistically, quite a poor miserable January with above average rainfall, slightly below average sunshine and relatively cool (but not exceptional) in my locality of Dublin.

Personally, I am happy with how the month has been in comparison to most Januaries. Got a nice snow event being in the epicentre of a shower and a good amount of frosts including 1 lovely severe one on the 9th. If other Januaries were better, this one would be nothing special and completely forgettable in my eyes.

For what it could have been with vast amounts of blocking, definitely disappointing. As far as Januaries go for me, it's been ok but glad it's over because January is usually one of my least favourite months of the year with how long it feels.

Nqp15hhu · 31-01-2021 5:40pm

We have still only had 87mm this month.

gerrybhoy · 31-01-2021 6:05pm

Out for a ramble with the kids there,baltic out,will take a while for my town halls to come down from my arm pits

Rock Lesnar · 31-01-2021 8:41pm

3.3c oughly 5-6mm of rain today in Meath, may as well have been 50-60mm cos it hasnt stopped, still drizzling away, i noticed while out for a walk earlier, theres now a newly formed lake in the field down the road, ducks on it and everything, when is the next deluge expected cos i just cant get enough of this fine fine weather

Clonmel1000 · 31-01-2021 9:50pm

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

3.3c oughly 5-6mm of rain today in Meath, may as well have been 50-60mm cos it hasnt stopped, still drizzling away, i noticed while out for a walk earlier, theres now a newly formed lake in the field down the road, ducks on it and everything, when is the next deluge expected cos i just cant get enough of this fine fine weather

At least it’s cold though perish the thought it might be mild.

ninebeanrows · 31-01-2021 9:52pm

And to think we were taught in school Spring starts tomorrow!

nacho libre · 31-01-2021 10:16pm

A lot milder now. I went for a walk this afternoon and it felt very raw in the wind.

redsteveireland · 31-01-2021 10:47pm

Could do with a bit of a dry spell, the back garden is like a swamp and I have work to do out there.

Oneiric 3 · 31-01-2021 10:56pm

Don't worry RedSteve, if this much touted easterly comes to pass, it'll zap up all of that moisture soon enough. I can't remember the last time I saw any dryness, or even a tiny dry patch, on the ground!

Donegal Storm · 31-01-2021 10:56pm

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

And to think we were taught in school Spring starts tomorrow!

Have to say I'm seriously craving some spring warmth at this stage, its been a bleak depressing winter but the thought of sitting in the garden in warm sunshine is at least something to look forward to. I'd still take a good cold spell but if next weeks potential effort fails then roll on spring

munsterlegend · 31-01-2021 11:16pm

redsteveireland wrote: »

Could do with a bit of a dry spell, the back garden is like a swamp and I have work to do out there.

Time to drain the swamp..

redsteveireland · 01-02-2021 1:09am

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Don't worry RedSteve, if this much touted easterly comes to pass, it'll zap up all of that moisture soon enough. I can't remember the last time I saw any dryness, or even a tiny dry patch, on the ground!

Talk about dashing my hopes...

Little snowy old me · 01-02-2021 2:10am

If next weeks cold spell fails to materialise then I'm going to start focusing on Spring and wishing for an early one. I consider snow events after mid February as not the real McCoy. To much disappointment every time a cold spell is possible but disappears off the morning runs. There's only so much '7 days out' I can handle!

Rougies · 01-02-2021 2:24am

Little snowy old me wrote: »

If next weeks cold spell fails to materialise then I'm going to start focusing on Spring and wishing for an early one. I consider snow events after mid February as not the real McCoy. To much disappointment every time a cold spell is possible but disappears off the morning runs. There's only so much '7 days out' I can handle!

I'll never understand this sentiment. I've seen some posters disregard Feb/March 2018 as if it never happened because "it wasn't REAL winter" or something along those lines. Each to their own, but if there's a full on blizzard raging outside with a multiple feet of snow it's the "real McCoy" for me, no matter what the calendar says.

carltonleon · 01-02-2021 8:00am

Mild and dry this morning in Swords when I took the dog for a ramble this morning, bit of a nothingness day really.... ooh for the cold crisp Wintry mornings of a few weeks ago

bazlers · 01-02-2021 8:23am

Can someone jog my memory but how far out were we discussing the BFTE back in Feb 2018? Was there consensus early on it was on the cards? Getting old.

King of Spades · 01-02-2021 8:39am

bazlers wrote: »

Can someone jog my memory but how far out were we discussing the BFTE back in Feb 2018? Was there consensus early on it was on the cards? Getting old.

I bought a snow shovel a full week beforehand based on what I read on here. Fairly sure it must have been MT’s long range forecast as don’t think I was reading the models thread then.

Speaking of MT, will be interesting to read his update today.

KingdomRushed · 01-02-2021 9:16am

bazlers wrote: »

Can someone jog my memory but how far out were we discussing the BFTE back in Feb 2018? Was there consensus early on it was on the cards? Getting old.

If I remember it was repeating run to run with eerie continuity and repeatability from as far as two weeks out. I can see on my Facebook I was highlighting the potential as early as Valentine's day and I wouldn't do that without being confident it was likely.

This upcoming spell is much more awkward and variable in the output than the beast in 2018 ever was. I remember seeing GFS ensembles line diagrams knitted together for that even 10 days out

Jimjay · 01-02-2021 9:16am

King of Spades wrote: »

I bought a snow shovel a full week beforehand based on what I read on here. Fairly sure it must have been MT’s long range forecast as don’t think I was reading the models thread then.

Speaking of MT, will be interesting to read his update today.

Im sure i remember a couple days before met weather on rte was saying will be mainly rain and sleet. Then all of a sudden red warning with up to 1m of snow and blizzards.

munsterlegend · 01-02-2021 9:40am

King of Spades wrote: »

I bought a snow shovel a full week beforehand based on what I read on here. Fairly sure it must have been MT’s long range forecast as don’t think I was reading the models thread then.

Speaking of MT, will be interesting to read his update today.

MT not getting too overwhelmed by this yet. Good potential for snow but a wait and see approach as the Atlantic attacks.

Winter 20/21 - General Discussion

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