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Atlantic Storm Watch: December 2013

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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Morning GFS diverts it good bit north, still affects northwest hard but bulk of country misses out


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,101 ✭✭✭Weathering


    Morning GFS diverts it good bit north, still affects northwest hard but bulk of country misses out

    Yes disappointing. Most likely the trend will continue and only places like Malin will take a pasting which is nothing unusual,Scotland baring the brunt. I'm losing my optimism a bit tbh and I'm even in Donegal


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Yes looking like more of a miss from HIRLAM too.
    284910.gif


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,101 ✭✭✭Weathering


    GFS and UKMO very similar track now but the GFS is still deeper. Here are both 19.00 Wed

    GFS gfs-0-42.png?0

    UKMO UW42-21.GIF?17-05


  • Registered Users Posts: 333 ✭✭mondymike


    Just an observer, but a concerned one, I drive nights, Dublin to cork, in a curtainsided lorry, need I worry about this week?


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,039 ✭✭✭force eleven


    mondymike wrote: »
    Just an observer, but a concerned one, I drive nights, Dublin to cork, in a curtainsided lorry, need I worry about this week?

    Looks like blustery windy one but nothing severe except perhaps up towards the northwest. Drive carefully, but you should be fine, keep an eye in the forecasts in any case.


  • Registered Users Posts: 333 ✭✭mondymike


    Looks like blustery windy one but nothing severe except perhaps up towards the northwest. Drive carefully, but you should be fine, keep an eye in the forecasts in any case.

    thanks, I know it got a bit iffy last week, the m8 is very exposed in patches. I even saw a car door on the m7 on my journey back! You'd think some1'd notice it missing....


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    0Z models are finally in rough agreement now, and it looks it will be a typical west coast winter low, nothing exceptional.


  • Registered Users Posts: 261 ✭✭aboyro


    may not be exciting from a wind point of view, but all north coasts should serious wave action from it. makes for good viewing:D


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,238 ✭✭✭Deank


    In light of the recent weeks forecasts the below link is quite apt.

    http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-11.55,45.47,482


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Deank wrote: »
    In light of the recent weeks forecasts the below link is quite apt.

    http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-11.55,45.47,482

    What's this, historic storm tracks? mean historic slp?

    Chance of a major land hit is now down to 20%.

    Still looks potent for the northwest. Belmullet still likely to see 70-75kt gusts.

    The way the gradient is looking, it might not be windy at all away from southern Ulster as gradient opens quite quickly. But still room for 50-100mile changes in track.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,542 ✭✭✭Tactical


    M.T's forecast this morning leaves me with a little hope that we may experience some decent gusts around West Munster.

    Its been like a snow watch roller coaster with this system and has been thoroughly enjoyable so far.

    I'm looking forward to reading all the various opinions and interpretation of the charts from the different forecasting models as we move closer to tomorrow evening.

    Satellite images of this weather system that is developing will also make for interesting viewing.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Only change on 6z is to send storm winds further northwest.

    Looks like we were hoodwinked again.

    gfs-0-36.png?6?6


    Morale of story, always push storm tracks at least 100 miles northwest of where theyre progged!

    Or... give it up!


  • Registered Users Posts: 261 ✭✭aboyro


    so close. which probably means we're back on the roller coasted for the christmas day storm now. 8 days out now most likely leaves us with no chance of that happening either. i was hoping the brussels wouldn't get cooked!!!!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,238 ✭✭✭Deank


    What's this, historic storm tracks? mean historic slp?

    Chance of a major land hit is now down to 20%.

    Still looks potent for the northwest. Belmullet still likely to see 70-75kt gusts.

    The way the gradient is looking, it might not be windy at all away from southern Ulster as gradient opens quite quickly. But still room for 50-100mile changes in track.

    Explanation here.

    http://earth.nullschool.net/about.html


  • Registered Users Posts: 58 ✭✭snowstorm2013


    The two lads arrived and are getting on with removing the dangerous tree. I am sad to see it go as it was planted in the 1920s. Anyway better safe than sorry. He said it would survive normal gales but if a very severe storm hit it would fall and probably take half the garage with it. I just hope tonight isnt a flop wind wise as these guys charged 400 euro more than the guy originally booked for Friday. Looking at the charts and comments on here I think I may have been to hasty


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,817 ✭✭✭sparrowcar


    The two lads arrived and are getting on with removing the dangerous tree. I am sad to see it go as it was planted in the 1920s. Anyway better safe than sorry. He said it would survive normal gales but if a very severe storm hit it would fall and probably take half the garage with it. I just hope tonight isnt a flop wind wise as these guys charged 400 euro more than the guy originally booked for Friday. Looking at the charts and comments on here I think I may have been to hasty

    €400 or a potential €xxxx amount if it landed on your garage or house.

    IMO it's the best €400 you'll have spent in a long time.

    Bi ullamh


  • Registered Users Posts: 845 ✭✭✭tylercollins


    Still look at high gust for North. Gusts of up to 70mph!

    post-6667-0-33273700-1387275391.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,518 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    Further north the better, Christmas day is long enough without power cuts on top of it ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    The two lads arrived and are getting on with removing the dangerous tree. I am sad to see it go as it was planted in the 1920s. Anyway better safe than sorry. He said it would survive normal gales but if a very severe storm hit it would fall and probably take half the garage with it. I just hope tonight isnt a flop wind wise as these guys charged 400 euro more than the guy originally booked for Friday. Looking at the charts and comments on here I think I may have been to hasty

    Send on an invoice to the Boards Weather forum admins for 400 euro . They'll sort you out!


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  • Posts: 25,611 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I always find the model-watching funny. Been doing it about 5 years and I, without any training or people updating my algorithms, am still better than any of them.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    The period around the 24-25th looks very active on the models and has done for some time. Too far out to pin down any one particular area of low pressure but the potential is there for some very wet and windy weather over the Christmas period.


    gens-1-1-192.png?6
    gens-3-1-192.png?6
    gens-4-1-192.png?6
    gens-5-1-204.png?6
    gens-9-1-192.png?6
    gens-13-1-216.png?6

    Etc...


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    In terms of tomorrow's storm, the UKMO model comes out smelling of roses...


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    In terms of tomorrow's storm, the UKMO model comes out smelling of roses...

    You joking!?

    The UKM had this totally wrong the whole time, didn't even develop a closed low until last night.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    In terms of tomorrow's storm, the UKMO model comes out smelling of roses...

    I wouldn't say that, up until last night the UKMO was just showing an open wave, its only very recently caught up with the other models in showing a developed low. What has changed this morning is there is now agreement on a more northerly track on the models, so only northwest coasts get a brush of severe winds. A slightly weaker version of recent GEM/ECM runs were probably the closest to the mark.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    There are still a few perturbations that would bring high winds over more of the country, but more a 20% chance now.

    gens-1-1-42.png?6


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,101 ✭✭✭Weathering


    Storm in a tea cup. Saturdays system was worse according to this 2013-12-18
    Severe gale force winds will affect parts of Northern Ireland, western, central and northern Scotland from late Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday. Gusts of 60 to 70 mph are expected in exposed areas, especially around coasts.


    Meanwhile NI facebook just posted this so either way people are going to be misinformed 1470281_564289416984727_1142870641_n.jpg
    Amber and Yellow warnings of HIGH WINDS has been issued for Northern Ireland.

    During Wednesday a deep area of low pressure will move close to the Northwest of the UK as it does so it will bring the risk of storm force winds during Wednesday night from around 9pm continuing overnight and into Thursday morning.

    AMBER Warning

    It is within the AMBER warning area where we expect the highest winds, gusts up to or possibly in-excess of 85mph. This is likely to lead to disruption to travel, damage to trees, power lines and risk to buildings i.e damage to Roofing, weak structures and windows due to possible flying debris (Caravans and Mobile homes are particularly vulnerable) interruptions or loss of power supplies is also possible.

    Yellow Warning

    Within the Yellow warning area wind gusts may reach 60 - 70mph locally this again may lead to some disruption to travel and risk of localised interruptions to power supplies.

    Please note both the AMBER and Yellow warnings may be subject to changes, please stay tuned as FLASH warnings may be issued. Heavy rain is also expected although no warning is in force at present.

    The public are advised to take extra care and be prepared for disruption to travel, possible disruption to power supplies and possible damage to buildings i.e Roofing.

    For those intending to travel by Sea, it is advisable to keep a check on updates from ferry operators, as Delays and/or cancallations are likely. And similar advice for those wishing to fly.

    By Road: Please refer to NI traffic watch for further advice on road conditions, Bridge closures and speed restrictions are likely

    By Rail: Please check with Translink for further information on any disruption to Rail travel, as speed restrictions may be placed on some rail lines which may lead to delays.

    You may also notice a new warning icon on our map. This is for Coastal event's, this means sea conditions are going to be extremely rough and may cause damage and flooding to coastal areas. The public are advised to avoid Beach fronts, coastal footpaths/roads and sea walls due to risk of high over topping waves and risk to life


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,899 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Still time for upgrades the usual trend is 3 or 4 downgrades and then maybe an upgrade before it hits.
    Am gonna go with middle station here and expect the 12's to move back towards a more direct hit but less severe than what seemed likely 2 days ago. Damage for the nw is my punt


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    A comparison between the 0Z NAE and 06Z NAE for 6pm tomorrow. Same model, same timeframe but two different runs only 6 hours apart.

    0Z: 962mb low with sustained winds ~70mph heading for the west coast.
    13121818_1700.gif

    06Z: 956mb low with sustained winds ~50mph heading for the west coast.
    13121818_1706.gif


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,248 ✭✭✭kstand


    The two lads arrived and are getting on with removing the dangerous tree. I am sad to see it go as it was planted in the 1920s. Anyway better safe than sorry. He said it would survive normal gales but if a very severe storm hit it would fall and probably take half the garage with it. I just hope tonight isnt a flop wind wise as these guys charged 400 euro more than the guy originally booked for Friday. Looking at the charts and comments on here I think I may have been to hasty

    Was it these two lads?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZC0sV4Z0ig


This discussion has been closed.
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