Atlantic Storm Watch: December 2013

maquiladora

18Z GFS is another downgrade. Slightly weaker and slightly further north than the 12Z.

ninebeanrows

The plot thickens

To add to the mystery i have a strong inkling the 18z NAE will be a little further SOUTH than its 12z run.

ninebeanrows

NAE 18z

Sustained 70mph winds just off the Mayo coast.

maquiladora

GFS :



NAE:

JanuarySnowstor

Nae looks dangerous

maquiladora

Crazy difference between the GFS and NAE at 27 hours. NAE blasts Donegal with storm force winds extending inland while the GFS barely has gales touching the coastline there.

GFS lower resolution letting it down with this kind of setup?

ninebeanrows

Could be a significant storm surge tomorrow afternoon in the west. How are high tides looking?

Reckless Abandonment

At this range .. I'd put my money on the nae, gfs and ecm better at 2/3 days out...

Oscar Bravo

My nearest quay,Roonagh,near Westport has high tides at 5.44am(4.5m) and 6.09pm(4.3m) tomorrow.

maquiladora

18Z HIRLAM agrees with NAE. 955mb low just off the northwest coast. Violent storm force along coasts there, hurricane force gusts.

SpaceTime

What time would we be expecting this system to get close to land?

dexter647

Well going by the latest nae I definitely think our friend in Sligo made the right move in removing that tree....Hairy stuff up north tomorrow night if that verifies:eek:

greenpilot

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

My nearest quay,Roonagh,near Westport has high tides at 5.44am(4.5m) and 6.09pm(4.3m) tomorrow.

Great... I'm ten mins from Westport, on a hill, exposed, with a dodgey roof.....oh,....****. I can see my Westnet reciever floating merrily across the fields towards castlebar....

Iancar29

SpaceTime wrote: »

What time would we be expecting this system to get close to land?

A strong front will first make its way across the country early evening time bringing some heavy rain to many places with winds gusting 50mph .


Conditions look VERY favourable for funnels to occur too due to the strong wind shear of nearly 18m/s at low levels and hitting 30m/s deep layer shear ! , but it ll be a right oul mess on radar so wont be able to spot anything really from that . Estofex will probably explain on there forecast later tonight im sure.

Then later the strongest winds will approach the NW coast bringing at least 70mph gusts to places.



So yeah , bad evening rush hour for all and then potential severe gusts for the NW later in the evening.

Im in work 12-8 so wont be able to enjoy watching the show unfolding

Mech1

What would be the best time frame to be listening in to Dublin ATC, the planes have difficulty landing in gusts / crosswinds above 40 knots i think?

(I only supply the feed, I know very little about it).

maquiladora

The lower resolution of the GFS global model seems to be missing what the regional HIRLAM and NAE are picking up on.

The hi-res NMM models on Netweather aren't much use because they use GFS data for its boundary, so unless the GFS solution is right then the NMM output will be as wrong as the global model its based on.

Iancar29

Mech1 wrote: »

What would be the best time frame to be listening in to Dublin ATC, the planes have difficulty landing in gusts / crosswinds above 40 knots i think?

(I only supply the feed, I know very little about it).

about 4 pm onwards id guess.

http://www.liveatc.net/search/?icao=eidw

Iancar29

maquiladora wrote: »

The lower resolution of the GFS global model seems to be missing what the regional HIRLAM and NAE are picking up on.

The hi-res NMM models on Netweather aren't much use because they use GFS data for its boundary, so unless the GFS solution is right then the NMM output will be as wrong as the global model its based on.

Very good point , will be very much a now cast event by the looks of things but still general warning is decent enough.

Mech1

Iancar29 wrote: »

about 4 pm onwards id guess.

http://www.liveatc.net/search/?icao=eidw

Thanks for that, and for your sig:D

irish1967

(Sits quietly as usual watching the craic) wow 2 posts in 2013. I'm excelling myself

ninebeanrows

NAVGEM (for what it's worth!) doesn't agree with the GFS

Weathering

Weathercheck and Maq- What is your general opinion on how tomorrow will pan out? I know it's impossible to say but which option looks most likely to you. Thanks

mickyfitzy2

just had a 105kph gust at Malin head in last hour

acassells80

mickyfitzy2 wrote: »

just had a 105kph gust at Malin head in last hour

Winds picking up along the Dublin Coast too

mickyfitzy2

mickyfitzy2 wrote: »

just had a 105kph gust at Malin head in last hour

Supose thats just a soft day up here

Mech1

acassells80 wrote: »

Winds picking up along the Dublin Coast too

Big time picking up, no weather station here, but my letterbox door flap has started banging again. First time since last Sat.

mickyfitzy2

Had a 70 knt gust here on the 5th but gust today seem more fierce and more often, feels like a storms brewing!

Oneiric 3

Yr.no's mean wind speed (Kt) forecast for 6pm tomorrow eve. Unfortunetly does not go beyond as does not have an 18z run.

Oscar Bravo

Met Eireann on the radio regards tomorrow evening "winds will be most violent north of slyne head where they may reach violent storm force 11 at times"

Iancar29

Mech1 wrote: »

Big time picking up, no weather station here, but my letterbox door flap has started banging again. First time since last Sat.

The classic Irish Anemometer ...