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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 / 2019 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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    #362
    Nabber
    Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    gens-8-0-240.png


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    #363
    derekon
    Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    Just read MT's daily forecast there. Not good for snow lovers. We might get a cold shot at the weekend but it's "modified cold" so basically useless and may give snow on hills (which equates to no snow for 99% of the population). Very disappointing as we're entering the final third of the winter. After all the hyperbole about a cold winter, SSW, very low sunspots, this winter is shaping up to rank amongst the horror winters of the early 00's.........

    D


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    #364
    Marengo
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,544 ✭✭✭Marengo


    ECM 12Zbrings us out to the end of January with no real cold. GFS far better in far FI. Next month hopefully :)

    #FreezingFeb


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    #365
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Marengo wrote: »
    ECM 12Zbrings us out to the end of January with no real cold. GFS far better in far FI. Next month hopefully :)

    #FreezingFeb


    501051WNiiFIoHL.jpg.jpg?1423018214


    I feel like these guys watching the models lately and listening to the experts. There is no sign of that lobe off vortex over Canada shifting any time soon. We also have been let down by the pattern in the pacific.
    So I can't share the optimism you have regarding a freezing Februrary:(


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    #366
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,710 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    nacho libre wrote: »


    I feel like these guys watching the models lately and listening to the experts. There is no sign of that lobe off vortex over Canada shifting any time soon. We also have been let down by the pattern in the pacific.
    So I can't share the optimism you have regarding a freezing Februrary:(

    Not looking good at all for any easterly based cold over the next 2 weeks, looks like we are in a cold zonal mostly north-westerlies pattern taking us to the end of the 1st week of February.


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    #367
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,447 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    I'll take it.

    anim_odi1.gif


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    #368
    arctictree
    Registered Users Posts: 4,285 ✭✭✭arctictree


    It seems to me that the models have been constantly showing snowy weather at t+240 for the last week. Or am I seeing things?!


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    #369
    Franz Von Peppercorn
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,070 ✭✭✭Franz Von Peppercorn


    arctictree wrote: »
    It seems to me that the models have been constantly showing snowy weather at t+240 for the last week. Or am I seeing things?!

    For the last two months.


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    #370
    derekon
    Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    arctictree wrote: »
    It seems to me that the models have been constantly showing snowy weather at t+240 for the last week. Or am I seeing things?!

    I think you might be, theyr'e continuously showing snow at T+216...…......why? Well that will take us to the 1sr April, at which stage, we will be able to confirm that this ranks as one of the greatest horror winters ever (if you're a coldie).....

    D


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    #371
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,710 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    The signals towards blocking in February are looking good. First week of February could have a cold spell followed by slightly milder conditions for second week of February. It's possible that there could be another cold spell in the second half of February. As always caution very much advised but looks like we will still have 4 interesting weeks of winter model watching to come.


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    #372
    Darwin
    Registered Users Posts: 2,659 ✭✭✭Darwin


    I admire your optimism Gonzo, I've been following the charts quite closely since late December and it's been abysmal watching the opportunities for cold present themselves in FI and then disappear once within the reliable range. There were epic charts on show last Friday only to be watered down completely over the weekend with the ECM leading the way. Hopefully we will get something to cheer about in the next week or two.


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    #373
    sdanseo
    Registered Users Posts: 9,233 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    Gonzo wrote: »
    As always caution very much advised but looks like we will still have 4 interesting weeks of winter model watching torture to come.

    Fixed up your post there, it had a typo. :pac:


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    #374
    Marengo
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,544 ✭✭✭Marengo


    The models have been shown proper cold at day 10 since the 4th of January or so, though it seems longer.

    Hopefully they'll eventually get it right. I think we have as good a chance for a good cold spell with east, north easterlies as zonal.


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    #375
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,447 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Gonzo wrote: »
    The signals towards blocking in February are looking good. First week of February could have a cold spell followed by slightly milder conditions for second week of February. It's possible that there could be another cold spell in the second half of February. As always caution very much advised but looks like we will still have 4 interesting weeks of winter model watching to come.


    This is the median among the ECM ensemble suite at day 10

    EDM1-240.GIF?22-0

    :cool:


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    #376
    typhoony
    Registered Users Posts: 1,490 ✭✭✭typhoony


    Greenland High Incoming...

    https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/18_156_mslp500.png?cb=334

    first week of Feb we'll be in the freezer if that progresses


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    #377
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,447 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Step away from the controls Gonzo

    gfs-0-234.png?18


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    #378
    typhoony
    Registered Users Posts: 1,490 ✭✭✭typhoony


    Getting closer to a cross polar flow..

    https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/18_228_mslp850.png?cb=496


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    #379
    typhoony
    Registered Users Posts: 1,490 ✭✭✭typhoony


    Low Pressure over Northern Italy, even closer to the dream scenario...

    https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/18_234_mslp850.png?cb=767


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    #380
    typhoony
    Registered Users Posts: 1,490 ✭✭✭typhoony


    BOOOM!!

    https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/18_264_mslp850.png?cb=914


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    #381
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,116 ✭✭✭pad199207


    On the very day Kermit returns....

    We get this!


    EAAED355-E29-E-4-D02-9684-5243-CCB4-ECFD.png


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    #382
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    here we go again...ukmintemp.png


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    #383
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    prectypeuktopo.png


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    #384
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    maxtemp.png


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    #385
    Snowbiee21
    Registered Users Posts: 788 ✭✭✭Snowbiee21


    squarecircles wrote: »
    prectypeuktopo.png

    Beasterly?


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    #386
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,447 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    pad199207 wrote: »
    On the very day Kermit returns....

    We get this!


    EAAED355-E29-E-4-D02-9684-5243-CCB4-ECFD.png

    76fe007c16545a8037d5bf8d4276cf1d.jpg


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    #387
    United road
    Registered Users Posts: 223 ✭✭United road


    pad199207 wrote: »
    On the very day Kermit returns....

    We get this!


    EAAED355-E29-E-4-D02-9684-5243-CCB4-ECFD.png


    And to think, some poster said yesterday that Kermit cant make it snow!!

    Eh hello.................


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    #388
    Mortelaro
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    Snowbiee21 wrote: »
    Beasterly?

    It's a textbook perfect northeasterly, longest possible snow fetch streamer airport closer snow train producer maxing out its snowfall in the Dublin east kildare wicklow east carlow north wexford zone Dec 2010 style


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    #389
    PukkaStukka
    Registered Users Posts: 2,154 ✭✭✭PukkaStukka


    It's a pub run. I REFUSE to get excited... :D


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    #390
    Andrew00
    Registered Users Posts: 2,484 ✭✭✭Andrew00


    Stop getting excited these runs will be pushed out to the end of February, which has what’s been happening over the last month


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    #391
    sdanseo
    Registered Users Posts: 9,233 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    It's a pub run, GFS, deep FI chart during a period of exceptional model uncertainty.

    It will probably be 23 degrees and just entering an official drought instead.

    Still, that overall cold trend remains. Even if it does seem to be pushed out longer, it hasn't dissapeared for more than 48hrs. So something is signalling it.


This discussion has been closed.
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