FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 / 2019 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Neddyusa

sryanbruen wrote: »

The same theme continues but ECM showed a blowtorch run this morning with Spring definitely arriving early in the second week of February. Low pressure systems getting pushed to the north by high pressure to the south drawing in long fetched southerly to southwesterly winds. Again very akin of February 1998.

First time since the start of winter that FI range charts have consistently shown anything other than cold blocked weather.....what odds they'll verify this time???

derekon

sryanbruen wrote: »

Quick look at the latest output show the Scandinavian High signal has been weakened and depending on the model you look at is in various places including eastern Europe, northeastern Europe or Siberia.

GFS 12z shows relatively high pressure over northern Greenland, northeastern Europe as well as Canada. It later turns into a very mild setup in FI as winds veer southerly of something akin to that of the exceptionally mild spell of February 1998. Problem here is the lack of a Euro trough. Pressure is too high over Spain to allow the low pressure to dive south and force the blocking over Canada to link with the high to northeastern Europe.

ECM 12z just shows Atlantic depression after depression barrelling throughout its run and very unsettled.

Given the performance of the models this winter and based on that GFS 12z, I would think winter is now finally on the way........

D

Gonzo

the models are perfect runs for people who really want as mild as it can possibly get in February. We're talking about 14C, maybe even 15C in parts of Ireland and the UK if it was sunny, especially from yesterdays GFS and this mornings ECM. Its the exact opposite to a perfect cold run promising magic. That is why I don't really believe those charts.

This mornings GFS is certainly cooler than last nights crazy mild run, but still mostly milder than average temperatures right up to the 18th of February, no signs of any cold weather on the way for the foreseeable future, just a relentless continuation of the very dominant Atlantic.

I still think we will get a major shift in the next 2 weeks, leading to an easterly end of February or into early March, but it would probably be much more tame compared to what we had last March.

Meteorite58

Lp after LP it would seem

TropicalTidbits

JCX BXC

As if the heating bill wasn't large enough 😠

typhoony

a more mobile atlantic for the next 10 days, potential for a very stormy period mid-feb, as a consequence of another polar votex shunting very cold air into the west atlantic.

Nabber

FI charts changing again, showing a 48 high lingering over Iceland

JCX BXC

typhoony wrote: »

a more mobile atlantic for the next 10 days, potential for a very stormy period mid-feb, as a consequence of another polar votex shunting very cold air into the west atlantic.

A Stormy February would perhaps not be so bad, it's bound to happen, and February is probably a good month for it.

nacho libre

GFS para teasing us again with a scandi high, which then heads for Greenland - not falling for it this time! It would be funny though if we did get a notable cold spell after the EC46 and UK Met Office flipped to a milder outlook.

Kermit.de.frog

A chink of light on the UKMO. Slow down of momentum and heights building to our northwest.

compsys

JCX BXC wrote: »

A Stormy February would perhaps not be so bad, it's bound to happen, and February is probably a good month for it.

Exactly.

We're overdue an Atlantic dominated, wet month.

Might as well get it over and done with in winter in February as opposed to April or May.

Monkeynut

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

A chink of light on the UKMO. Slow down of momentum and heights building to our northwest.

Is there any similar charts for that date from the other models?

Artane2002

compsys wrote: »

Exactly.

We're overdue an Atlantic dominated, wet month.

Might as well get it over and done with in winter in February as opposed to April or May.

Um, November was Atlantic dominated and wet? We aren't really overdue. Personally, I'd actually prefer the muck in April because it wouldn't be ruining winter or summer.

pauldry

GFS trending colder once more

Gonzo

Monkeynut wrote: »

Is there any similar charts for that date from the other models?

the GFS is still updating, but is showing similar




hopefully will be much more interesting updates as we go through this week. For now there are just slight signs that something might happen into mid February.

Gonzo

still nothing exciting on the GFS but there are very faint signs. At the far reaches of FI, the GFS tries to get an easterly going, but it's sourced from a rather mild southerly track, so wouldn't be very cold. Way too far out to get excited, but at least it's better than the weekends charts which were endless mild.

Gonzo

just for fun. This GFS P08 run gets the high going over Greenland and some cold easterlys, however this is out on it's own, so not well supported.

Nabber

We have the best FI charts. Our reality is different.

sryanbruen

Nabber wrote: »

We have the best FI charts. Our reality is different.

Not really a great chart there for cold/snow. The air is not overly cold and pressure is too high for snow.

Models very significantly supporting a mild signal right now.

Gonzo

most likely after next week, high pressure is showing up on alot of the models, the eventual placement of the high could change things between very mild or cold. Certainly the next 1 to 2 weeks are looking very mild.

Donegal Storm

Artane2002 wrote: »

Um, November was Atlantic dominated and wet? We aren't really overdue. Personally, I'd actually prefer the muck in April because it wouldn't be ruining winter or summer.

The Atlantic typically runs out of steam around late March or April most years, it's been fairly quiet for 2 months now so by our usual standards I'd say we are overdue

I'd take a month of crap mild weather now if it lead to a nice cool and bright April. Been years since we had a good 'April Showers' month with great skyscapes and thundery hail showers

nacho libre

When you are in need of straws to clutch, you can always rely on the CFS:D

Monkeynut

nacho libre wrote: »

When you are in need of straws to clutch, you can always rely on the CFS:D

I'm just gone to bed, nice and warm, but that chart makes me feel cold. Ahh well, at least it's a dream.

Gonzo

some of tonights GFS members are having a laugh and hinting easterlys, but they are nothing more than a dream, because in the morning these charts will be already gone.

highdef

Gonzo wrote: »

some of tonights GFS members are having a laugh and hinting easterlys, but they are nothing more than a dream, because in the morning these charts will be already gone.

I'm loving your reverse psychology there

Artane2002

For what it's worth, there was 43% support for an easterly in the ECM ensembles last night. I don't believe it will happen because winter 2018-19 says no.

Gonzo

highdef wrote: »

I'm loving your reverse psychology there

sadly it didn't work out, as expected those charts are now vanished and replaced by more mild runs.

hatrickpatrick

ECM 0z could be a lot worse, showing Scandi high potential:

Marengo

I wouldn't be surprised if the models got it right, finally, for late Feb/early March. The late winter snap.

hatrickpatrick

VERY nice GFS 18z tonight with scandi heights building from 180h and a potential route to Greenland heights towards the end of the run - the 0z will be very interesting viewing indeed.

The ECM 12z is showing a reasonably similar evolution in its later frames, which has been unusual lately with good runs of either model - let's see if we can maintain this overnight!