FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 / 2019 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Gonzo

latest ensemble run shows tonights operational GFS to be on it's own in terms of depth of cold. If other models follow and this actually happens, it will be damn cold.

A -14 temp at 850 hPA is well and truly in the freezer, ground level daytime temperatures may struggle to reach more than -1C. Let's see what tomorrow brings before even thinking about getting excited.

highdef

PukkaStukka wrote: »

It's a pub run. I REFUSE to get excited...

And as to be expected, the latest GFS run shatters our dreams with a very different output. Still shows potential and things could swing back in our favour but the early morning run has lately been having a habit of being so so so cruel to us. I think it and the pub run are in cahoots with each other, with their goal being to cause us anguish on an ongoing basis!

pauldry

its called pub run for a reason.

Morning run is when they wake up to reality

Kermit.de.frog

There is always going to be some deviation and inter-model ups and downs at this sort of distance.

00z GFS could be better and the ECM op but overall trend is there



It's never straight forward. Wouldn't be exciting if it was :pac:

highdef

highdef wrote: »

And as to be expected, the latest GFS run shatters our dreams with a very different output. Still shows potential and things could swing back in our favour but the early morning run has lately been having a habit of being so so so cruel to us. I think it and the pub run are in cahoots with each other, with their goal being to cause us anguish on an ongoing basis!

And this mornings run (that' still rolling out) is back to looking good again. Will post up some GIFs when it's complete.

nacho libre

On the Icon,the high is further west in FI. It possibly might lead to something interesting in later frames.
The UKMO long range update is still going for rather colder weather, albeit delayed again, and with the usual caveat.
I think we need to see the models reach a consensus within the next four or five days, if there is still deviations by then, i think we are locked into this pattern of cold zonal, and there will be no severe cold.

highdef

nacho libre wrote: »

On the Icon,the high is further west in FI. It possibly might lead to something interesting in later frames.
The UKMO long range update is still going for rather colder weather, albeit delayed again, and with the usual caveat.
I think we need to see the models reach a consensus within the next four or five days, if there is still deviations by then, i think we are locked into this pattern of cold zonal, and there will be no severe cold.

ICON to +120 hrs as that is as far as it has updated to at this time:



GFS to +192 hrs:



And from +192 to +384:



Corresponding expected precip and precip type plus expected accumulations:

Meteorite58

ECM showing no shortage of weather next week on current run , a lot of frontal and LP activity with a cold airmass , quite wet and windy and unsettled at times and showing wintry conditions especially Northern counties with potential for disruptive snow there towards end of next week and the Northern half of the country in general receiving some snow more so as the week goes on into Thurs and Fri .

highdef

Meteorite58 wrote: »

ECM showing no shortage of weather next week on current run , a lot of frontal and LP activity with a cold airmass , quite wet and windy and unsettled at times and showing wintry conditions especially Northern counties with potential for disruptive snow there towards end of next week and the Northern half of the country in general receiving some snow more so as the week goes on into Thurs and Fri .

Indeed, it's quite the mess alright!

Villain

I'll take the 6z FV3 with a cherry on top

Gonzo

I knew that fantastic GFS run would be gone this morning, it was far too much of everything we want to take seriously. This mornings runs are back down to earth, but still show signs of plenty of cold conditions and possible sleet and snow at times.

highdef

Gonzo wrote: »

I knew that fantastic GFS run would be gone this morning, it was far too much of everything we want to take seriously. This mornings runs are back down to earth, but still show signs of plenty of cold conditions and possible sleet and snow at times.

Very much agree with you. The posters on Netweather bank runs like the one last night and bin them when they don't show what they want. Well I binned last nights run, despite how amazing it was looking. It was pretty obvious that it was most likely a mild outlier.

As you said about this mornings run, it's a lot more plausible looking. Lots of room for improvement in it but overall, it's not looking bad and there's great potential.

The trend is your friend and that's what we need start seeing.....preferably on all the major models.

pauldry

Ill only believe a freeze is imminent when I see a mild pub run...

Bring it on.

Certainly Ulster says "Snow" in coming 10 days but the rest of us?

Gonzo

pauldry wrote: »

Ill only believe a freeze is imminent when I see a mild pub run...

Bring it on.

Certainly Ulster says "Snow" in coming 10 days but the rest of us?

This weekend there is a chance of sleet or snow showers in the usual places: Northern Ireland, Donegal, Mayo, Cavan, Monaghan, from another brief flirt with cold, similar to the one we just had.

The colder outbreak into February is still a week away and will change from what we are seeing now, it's impossible to tell where any snow will be.

highdef

The latest GFS run, particularly towards the latter part of it, looks just plain weird IMO.

JCX BXC

It's not a good run, it just seems strange.

Gonzo

highdef wrote: »

The latest GFS run, particularly towards the latter part of it, looks just plain weird IMO.

it doesn't look great, certainly less potent than anything that was shown yesterday. We narrowly miss out on really cold conditions around the 28th of January and only get cold covering the country by Friday 1st of February. One day of north-easterlies on the 3rd of January, then high pressure rolls in on the 4th with milder air and a mess from the 5th. Certainly room for many more changes. Too much of an Atlantic flow for much of that run for me to get excited about it.

NMB

It’s still struggling with the SSW - they all are. Probably from Friday onwards we’ll start seeing more consistent cold solutions

Darwin

The FV3 is not without interest, particularly Tuesday into Wednesday of next week? ECM not doubt will have a different slant on things again.

Gonzo

The NAO is due to get increasingly positive after the 4th or 5th of February which is not a good sign. We could have another battle on our hands.

Mortelaro

2 days ago it was to go negative Gonzo
I really have no faith in FI at the moment
Go back over the last 3 weeks of this thread and Shur most of the charts at 6days plus range were codology

I suspect if we are to see properly cold weather as a result of the downwelling strat warm in early February, you won't know untill it's sub 100 hrs but I have my doubts

John.Icy

The chunk of PV over Canada is killing us - just keeps releasing energy into the Atlantic that keeps riding over the HP to our west and prevents the proper northward ridging needed for a proper blocking high. Stuck in a rut.

Still some cold and snow about as some of the lows drop over us with pulling in NW/N winds which drag some colder air in.

Output has improved the last day or two and there is still a lot to be decided even within t150s so no sorrow yet. Lots of time left too, but in another two weeks I say my bum will begin to squeak if eye candy charts are still at day 10!

Meteorite58

ECM 12Z showing it to be very wintry next Tues into Weds, still in the unreliable time frame though. Currently showing very cold 850 hPa temps and daytime temps struggling to get up to 4 or 5 C I'd say. Very sharp frost in the dark hours with icy road conditions.

Gonzo

GFS updating, still a bit more to go but looks like were in a cool or cold northwesterly right into the first week of February. Some brief milder sectors but mostly cold. Could be plenty of snow for Northern Ireland and north-western areas if these charts come off.

highdef

Well the 00z run rolling out now is a sight to behold!!! Here's it is out to +192. Will be another half hour or so until it's finished out to +384.

typhoony

end of January into the first week of February now looks to be cold, not very cold but some snow to low levels with best chance of settling snow during nighttime hours, not quite cold enough during the day for settling snow apart from Hilly areas. I see over in the U.S a bitterly Cold Noreaster is about to kick in also around the same time as we go cold.

squarecircles

this from the 00z gfs would have been nice,
the pigmuck is stopped in its tracks and bumps into the cold air
with a bitterly cold night to follow.

sdanseo

ICON wants snow with -5 uppers next Monday, so close its not for this thread.

Good trend for Tues/Weds on GFS and ECM 12Z's, well established northerlies in both.

Typhoony's summary of cold but no beast seems a good one.

Marengo

Yikes:eek:

Franz Von Peppercorn

Gonzo wrote: »

The NAO is due to get increasingly positive after the 4th or 5th of February which is not a good sign. We could have another battle on our hands.

Surely these nao graphs map directly to ensemble charts.