Midterm Elections

Rjd2 · 11-11-2018 5:26am

StringerBell wrote: »

A recount?

If the recount stage has been reached and the two reps still had the same leads as when I last got to check on the coverage I can't see a recount changing the selection.

If there were still votes to be counted maybe, but a recount isn't gonna close a gap of 15k or more, would have had to been a lot closer.

Must check on Arizona

For Arizona just follow the below

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard

On the ground and clearly on the ball, not sure what his political allegiance is which is a good thing.

Mc Sally relying on miracles at this stage.

Florida is still a basketcase. Mc Dowd is been a little cynical with the above post, the annoyance from the right is how absurdly unprofessional it is and the person in charge of Browood is absolutely hopeless rather than hoping they stop counting.

Also amusing that what an injustice 2000 was, he worked on the Bush campaign for 2004 also. :pac:

StringerBell · 11-11-2018 10:54am

The Broward county person was appointed by bush I believe and there has been plenty of time to change that person. By both parties, Florida is a strange place of course and this just adds to it

Captain Obvious · 11-11-2018 11:50am

Can anyone give a summary of what's currently up for grabs?

Brian? · 11-11-2018 1:23pm

Captain Obvious wrote: »

Can anyone give a summary of what's currently up for grabs?

Expect this to be updated shortly:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-16-races-still-too-close-to-call/

Brian? · 13-11-2018 8:15am

Arizona called for Sinema. Not a huge upset but a significant result. A female Democrat im traditionally deep red Az.

Rhineshark · 13-11-2018 9:28am

Brian? wrote: »

Arizona called for Sinema. Not a huge upset but a significant result. A female Democrat im traditionally deep red Az.

Notable also that she beat a pro-trump Republican.

Gbear · 13-11-2018 9:49am

Brian? wrote: »

Arizona called for Sinema. Not a huge upset but a significant result. A female Democrat im traditionally deep red Az.

Not just female but a gay atheist one.

Unless she was black she couldn't be less Republican.

StringerBell · 13-11-2018 12:49pm

Bisexual technically

Yep, big win. Maybe not the biggest upset of all time but a very big win.

vetinari · 13-11-2018 1:19pm

It's a decent upset. Arizona hasn't had a Democratic senator since 1994 I think.
The Republican governor won by 15 points.

8-10 · 13-11-2018 3:27pm

This is now the Democrats biggest midterm result since 1974 (after Watergate)

They're doing well in these close races

Rjd2 · 13-11-2018 4:16pm

vetinari wrote: »

It's a decent upset. Arizona hasn't had a Democratic senator since 1994 I think.
The Republican governor won by 15 points.

To be fair Sinema was ahead in most polls for last few months, so it was considered a 50/50 race for sure.

Ultimately best case scenario for Republicans is 53 seats when you look at the favorable map and how vulnerable a lot of the dems were in red state it should have been much better for the republicans, heck they could have given themselves a cushion for 2020.

Short term they could have ensured that if RGB needed to be replaced soon, they could have picked someone without having to worry about what Collins and Murwowski e.g Barrett.

https://www.axios.com/donald-trump-2020-presidential-election-chances-86143c8b-9045-414d-b61a-80d67be9107a.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=twsocialshare&utm_campaign=organic

That's a good read, Swan is one of the best in the business and most certainly no hack. Ultimately without Clinton on the Dems ticket it gets much tougher for Trump and as Ryan feared in 2012 the Republicans are facing a demographics nightmare. Trump has sped it up, only so many angry white people out there.

Nody · 13-11-2018 5:32pm

Rjd2 wrote: »

Ultimately best case scenario for Republicans is 53 seats when you look at the favorable map and how vulnerable a lot of the dems were in red state it should have been much better for the republicans, heck they could have given themselves a cushion for 2020.

The economy is at it's top, they got through a tax cut, placed two judges in the top court and controlled both houses yet this was the best they could do? That does indeed point to issues in 2020 for them.

Brian? · 13-11-2018 6:28pm

I've been reading a lot about the voter suppression in Georgia. It's horrific. The entire GOP should be denouncing the actions of Brian Kemp.

As Sec of State he purged 340000 perfectly valid voters from the polls. And refused and unknown number of new voter applications due to punctuation mistakes. And sent voting machines missing power cords to predominantly black districts. And sent too few voting machines to predominantly black districts. This is only the start of it.

He should be indicted for election fraud not elected governor. Will anything happen? Will it ****. Where are the Trump tweets about rigged elections in Georgia? It's an absolute disgrace.

For all the whatabouterry claiming the Dems are just as bad: show me one state they have done anything like this in.

Brian? · 13-11-2018 6:31pm

Gbear wrote: »

Not just female but a gay atheist one.

Unless she was black she couldn't be less Republican.

I'm actually more shocked they elected and atheist than someone who's bi. I lived in Arizona even the Dems there are Christian fundamentalists in my experience. The Republicans are properly off the wall.

Ronaldinho · 14-11-2018 6:55pm

Brian? wrote: »

even the Dems there are Christian fundamentalists in my experience. The Republicans are properly off the wall.

For all of your denunciations of President Trump and many of them on the money, with posts like these you come across as a bigot yourself.

Brian? · 15-11-2018 10:24am

Ronaldinho wrote: »

For all of your denunciations of President Trump and many of them on the money, with posts like these you come across as a bigot yourself.

I don’t understand why you think that’s bigoted.

2 Scoops · 15-11-2018 11:57pm

Recount called in the Governors race in Florida, DeSantis wins but Gillum is still refusing to concede.

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/15/florida-recount-ron-desantis-prevails-over-andrew-gillum-governor/2006942002/

prawnsambo · 16-11-2018 9:24am

2 Scoops wrote: »

Recount called in the Governors race in Florida, DeSantis wins but Gillum is still refusing to concede.

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/15/florida-recount-ron-desantis-prevails-over-andrew-gillum-governor/2006942002/

Because all the votes weren't recounted by the deadline. Not surprised about that, since there have been problems with the machines used to recount the ballots. He may have a case.

Captain Obvious · 16-11-2018 9:24am

prawnsambo wrote: »

Because all the votes weren't recounted by the deadline. Not surprised about that, since there have been problems with the machines used to recount the ballots. He may have a case.

2 minutes past the deadline.

Brian? · 16-11-2018 9:53am

2 Scoops wrote: »

Recount called in the Governors race in Florida, DeSantis wins but Gillum is still refusing to concede.

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/15/florida-recount-ron-desantis-prevails-over-andrew-gillum-governor/2006942002/

Refusing to concede? It wouldn’t stop the recount if he did. The rules are the rules, a concession is all just PR.

Itssoeasy · 16-11-2018 6:24pm

2 Scoops wrote: »

Recount called in the Governors race in Florida, DeSantis wins but Gillum is still refusing to concede.

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/15/florida-recount-ron-desantis-prevails-over-andrew-gillum-governor/2006942002/

Gillum did concede initially but the consession phone call is not binding and it's the Florida Secretary of State(a republican btw) who called for it under the election rules in Florida. But sure let's not let the facts get in the way of not being truthful.

pixelburp · 16-11-2018 6:33pm

The Senate election between Rick Scott and Bill Nelson is heading to another recount: after a machine recount left a difference of 0.154% between candidates, it thus fell below the watermark of 0.25% to trigger a hand recount. Scott has an approximate 12,000 vote lead.

Rhineshark · 17-11-2018 1:10pm

pixelburp wrote: »

The Senate election between Rick Scott and Bill Nelson is heading to another recount: after a machine recount left a difference of 0.154% between candidates, it thus fell below the watermark of 0.25% to trigger a hand recount. Scott has an approximate 12,000 vote lead.

An *actual* hand count rather than just over/undervotes?

That would be very interesting since the machine recount is pretty useless if there was machine interference.

Nody · 19-11-2018 4:49pm

By the latest count over 60 million democrat votes in the Mid term election; take into account Trump got a total of 63 million votes in the President election which makes those numbers crazy high and should scare republicans for the upcoming election...

RobertKK · 23-11-2018 4:31pm

I remember posting after the midterms how each party the Democrats and the Republicans needed each other - otherwise the US would be a one party state.
This was in response to one person stating their wish that the Republicans would disappear into dust and never seen again.
I stated then that one can find good people in both parties, and people in both parties who are questionable in that department.

I was reading Rand Paul's twitter account last night and he is a person I could easily vote for.

https://twitter.com/RandPaul/status/1065385545533190144
https://twitter.com/RandPaul/status/1064978275187998728
https://twitter.com/RandPaul/status/1064978268154138630
https://twitter.com/RandPaul/status/1064978272960811008

That is what moral leadership looks like, and I think it is something most people on either side of the political divide could agree on.

Brian? · 23-11-2018 6:42pm

RobertKK wrote: »

I remember posting after the midterms how each party the Democrats and the Republicans needed each other - otherwise the US would be a one party state.
This was in response to one person stating their wish that the Republicans would disappear into dust and never seen again.
I stated then that one can find good people in both parties, and people in both parties who are questionable in that department.

I was reading Rand Paul's twitter account last night and he is a person I could easily vote for.

https://twitter.com/RandPaul/status/1065385545533190144
https://twitter.com/RandPaul/status/1064978275187998728
https://twitter.com/RandPaul/status/1064978268154138630
https://twitter.com/RandPaul/status/1064978272960811008

That is what moral leadership looks like, and I think it is something most people on either side of the political divide could agree on.

Occasionally myself and Rand align in our attitudes and beliefs. This is one of those times.

However the vast majority of the time his “moral leadership” is severely lacking and he tows the party line.

ancapailldorcha · 24-11-2018 2:15pm

I followed Rand Paul on Facebook for some time but gave up when he started resorting to Islamophobic scaremongering.

Captain Obvious · 24-11-2018 3:17pm

Latest estimate is that 1.4 million voters have been purged from the Georgia voter register since 2012. That's about one in five voters. How are people not marching every day?

Brian? · 24-11-2018 9:06pm

Captain Obvious wrote: »

Latest estimate is that 1.4 million voters have been purged from the Georgia voter register since 2012. That's about one in five voters. How are people not marching every day?

As I said earlier. It’s an absolute disgrace that should be investigated by the FEC. IMO there should be indictments handed down. But it won’t happen.

Where is Trump’s outrage about voter fraud now a republican has won?

pixelburp · 27-11-2018 11:19pm

Just to echo what was said in the Trump thread,
It actually looks like the Democrats might end up with +40 House seats as opposed to +39; there's actually still one more seat being counted, California 21st. After initially being called as a GOP win with a 7 point lead, subsequent counting of regions has given Democrat TJ Cox a 0.4 point lead. Remarkably it has taken weeks to count all the ballots; I get California's a big state, but it's crazy how poor the US' counting system can be.

8-10 · 27-11-2018 11:59pm

pixelburp wrote: »

Just to echo what was said in the Trump thread,
It actually looks like the Democrats might end up with +40 House seats as opposed to +39; there's actually still one more seat being counted, California 21st. After initially being called as a GOP win with a 7 point lead, subsequent counting of regions has given Democrat TJ Cox a 0.4 point lead. Remarkably it has taken weeks to count all the ballots; I get California's a big state, but it's crazy how poor the US' counting system can be.

It's mainly California, they're always different and take waaaaay longer

Rjd2 · 28-11-2018 2:56am

Mississippi senate result will be known later, this should have been a straight forward win for the Republicans but Smith has said some things which are and this is really giving her the benefit of the doubt,pretty ****ing stupid. (link below)

I have a small bet on the Dem here so while I think Smith gets it done early results are a little concerning for the GOP. Obviously Smith is still fav, but not impossible we could see a repeat of Alabama. Losing such a safe seat after the massive house swing would be dire for the GOP.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/11/27/google-joins-list-companies-seeking-refund-campaign-donation-sen-cindy-hyde-smith-after-public-hanging-comment/?utm_term=.5d582f850632

Rjd2 · 28-11-2018 3:27am

pixelburp wrote: »

Just to echo what was said in the Trump thread,
It actually looks like the Democrats might end up with +40 House seats as opposed to +39; there's actually still one more seat being counted, California 21st. After initially being called as a GOP win with a 7 point lead, subsequent counting of regions has given Democrat TJ Cox a 0.4 point lead. Remarkably it has taken weeks to count all the ballots; I get California's a big state, but it's crazy how poor the US' counting system can be.

I can't pretend to have followed many of the house races, but one of the depressing things for the GOP they really are over reliant on white people.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/democrats-flip-39-seats-final-tally-losing-gop-rep-mia-n940156

Mia Love who most will be familiar with addressed the issue above. I don't know much about her, but reading less loony right wingers online she was an impressive politician. She

Another close race the Republicans lost was Young Kim who rejected all the Trump nationalism and would have been a much needed nice piece of PR for the party.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/asian-america/young-kim-s-congressional-campaign-run-two-decades-making-n861466

Paul Ryan was worried in 2012 the party was doomed long term if they did not diversify and well Trump hasn't exactly helped things. Demographics and Trumpism long term is a disaster for the GOP.

spacecoyote · 28-11-2018 7:59am

Rjd2 wrote: »

Mississippi senate result will be known later, this should have been a straight forward win for the Republicans but Smith has said some things which are and this is really giving her the benefit of the doubt,pretty ****ing stupid. (link below)

I have a small bet on the Dem here so while I think Smith gets it done early results are a little concerning for the GOP. Obviously Smith is still fav, but not impossible we could see a repeat of Alabama. Losing such a safe seat after the massive house swing would be dire for the GOP.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/11/27/google-joins-list-companies-seeking-refund-campaign-donation-sen-cindy-hyde-smith-after-public-hanging-comment/?utm_term=.5d582f850632

Well, it seems that the racist rhetoric hurt her, but not much. It's one of the deepest red states in the US & she's likely to finish with around an 8 point win.

Quin_Dub · 28-11-2018 11:48am

spacecoyote wrote: »

Well, it seems that the racist rhetoric hurt her, but not much. It's one of the deepest red states in the US & she's likely to finish with around an 8 point win.

Yep - Looking like she'll finish on about 54% of the vote.

Rjd2 · 28-11-2018 7:30pm

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Yep - Looking like she'll finish on about 54% of the vote.

It was a very favorable map for the GOP regarding the senate and they could have done better, however 53-47 gives Mitch something to work with considering how tricky Collins and Murkowski can be at times.

RGB will need to hang on for another few years, because with this cushion they can elect Coney Barrett to replace her which is most conservatives wet dream.

Itssoeasy · 28-11-2018 7:35pm

The thing with the senate is if things get a bit rocky with the economy then the next senate elections will be fun for the GOP. The reverse of what happened this years with a majority of democratic held seats up will happen in 2020 so the senate GOP need to decide how far aligned with Trump they want to be.

Water John · 28-11-2018 8:11pm

To have a chance in the Senate, the Dems will need some inroad on rural voters.

Captain Obvious · 28-11-2018 8:18pm

Water John wrote: »

To have a chance in the Senate, the Dems will need some inroad on rural voters.

Will Trump's policies make that easier I wonder.

pixelburp · 29-11-2018 8:43pm

And yup, it's +40 for Democrats now, with Cox squeaking to victory in the California 21st via a 50.2% of the vote share.

spacecoyote · 30-11-2018 9:46am

...things may not all be done and dusted. Looks like the North Carolina 9th is being investigated for some dubious voting patterns.

The Rep won it by 905 votes, but one particular district has some extreme irregularities in relation to absentee ballots

http://amp.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/election/article222363510.html?__twitter_impression=true

Bladen County had the highest percentage of absentee ballot requests in the state. There, 7.5 percent of registered voters requested absentee ballots. In most counties it was less than 3 percent...

In seven of the eight counties in the 9th District, for example, McCready (Dem) won a lopsided majority of the mailed-in absentee ballots. But not in Bladen County. There, Republican Mark Harris won 61 percent even though registered Republicans accounted for only 19 percent of the county’s accepted absentee ballots...

From Nate Silver:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1068338084394090498

seems to be a crazily gerrymandered state if this is true:

https://twitter.com/rosshen69908962/status/1068345091792625664

Ozymandius2011 · 01-12-2018 3:51pm

spacecoyote wrote: »

...things may not all be done and dusted. Looks like the North Carolina 9th is being investigated for some dubious voting patterns.

The Rep won it by 905 votes, but one particular district has some extreme irregularities in relation to absentee ballots

http://amp.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/election/article222363510.html?__twitter_impression=true

From Nate Silver:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1068338084394090498

seems to be a crazily gerrymandered state if this is true:

https://twitter.com/rosshen69908962/status/1068345091792625664

Thats true. But nationally I think the gerrymandering by both parties cancels each other out. A panel of the 4th Circuit Court of Appeals a few weeks ago also threw out Maryland's gerrymandered maps. The Dems got around 52% of the seats on 53% of the vote in the House of Representatives nationally.

Midterm Elections

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