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Midterm Elections

Captain Obvious

Americans go to the polls today to vote on a number of issues but primarily the US Senate and Congress. The Democrats are expected to take control of Congress and the Republicans are expected to retain their slim minority in the Senate but there could be a few surprises. Record numbers of early voters and massive voter suppression mean that polls may not be too reliable and Democrats only need to flip two seats to take control.

Here's a quick rundown from CNN

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/10/27/politics/us-midterm-election-explainer-intl-trnd/index.html

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Rjd2

StringerBell wrote: »

A recount?

If the recount stage has been reached and the two reps still had the same leads as when I last got to check on the coverage I can't see a recount changing the selection.

If there were still votes to be counted maybe, but a recount isn't gonna close a gap of 15k or more, would have had to been a lot closer.

Must check on Arizona

For Arizona just follow the below

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard

On the ground and clearly on the ball, not sure what his political allegiance is which is a good thing.

Mc Sally relying on miracles at this stage.

Florida is still a basketcase. Mc Dowd is been a little cynical with the above post, the annoyance from the right is how absurdly unprofessional it is and the person in charge of Browood is absolutely hopeless rather than hoping they stop counting.

Also amusing that what an injustice 2000 was, he worked on the Bush campaign for 2004 also. :pac:

StringerBell

The Broward county person was appointed by bush I believe and there has been plenty of time to change that person. By both parties, Florida is a strange place of course and this just adds to it

Captain Obvious

Can anyone give a summary of what's currently up for grabs?

Brian?

Captain Obvious wrote: »

Can anyone give a summary of what's currently up for grabs?

Expect this to be updated shortly:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-16-races-still-too-close-to-call/

Brian?

Arizona called for Sinema. Not a huge upset but a significant result. A female Democrat im traditionally deep red Az.

Rhineshark

Brian? wrote: »

Arizona called for Sinema. Not a huge upset but a significant result. A female Democrat im traditionally deep red Az.

Notable also that she beat a pro-trump Republican.

Gbear

Brian? wrote: »

Arizona called for Sinema. Not a huge upset but a significant result. A female Democrat im traditionally deep red Az.

Not just female but a gay atheist one.

Unless she was black she couldn't be less Republican.

StringerBell

Bisexual technically

Yep, big win. Maybe not the biggest upset of all time but a very big win.

vetinari

It's a decent upset. Arizona hasn't had a Democratic senator since 1994 I think.
The Republican governor won by 15 points.

8-10

This is now the Democrats biggest midterm result since 1974 (after Watergate)

They're doing well in these close races

Rjd2

vetinari wrote: »

It's a decent upset. Arizona hasn't had a Democratic senator since 1994 I think.
The Republican governor won by 15 points.

To be fair Sinema was ahead in most polls for last few months, so it was considered a 50/50 race for sure.

Ultimately best case scenario for Republicans is 53 seats when you look at the favorable map and how vulnerable a lot of the dems were in red state it should have been much better for the republicans, heck they could have given themselves a cushion for 2020.

Short term they could have ensured that if RGB needed to be replaced soon, they could have picked someone without having to worry about what Collins and Murwowski e.g Barrett.

https://www.axios.com/donald-trump-2020-presidential-election-chances-86143c8b-9045-414d-b61a-80d67be9107a.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=twsocialshare&utm_campaign=organic

That's a good read, Swan is one of the best in the business and most certainly no hack. Ultimately without Clinton on the Dems ticket it gets much tougher for Trump and as Ryan feared in 2012 the Republicans are facing a demographics nightmare. Trump has sped it up, only so many angry white people out there.

Nody

Rjd2 wrote: »

Ultimately best case scenario for Republicans is 53 seats when you look at the favorable map and how vulnerable a lot of the dems were in red state it should have been much better for the republicans, heck they could have given themselves a cushion for 2020.

The economy is at it's top, they got through a tax cut, placed two judges in the top court and controlled both houses yet this was the best they could do? That does indeed point to issues in 2020 for them.

Brian?

I've been reading a lot about the voter suppression in Georgia. It's horrific. The entire GOP should be denouncing the actions of Brian Kemp.

As Sec of State he purged 340000 perfectly valid voters from the polls. And refused and unknown number of new voter applications due to punctuation mistakes. And sent voting machines missing power cords to predominantly black districts. And sent too few voting machines to predominantly black districts. This is only the start of it.

He should be indicted for election fraud not elected governor. Will anything happen? Will it ****. Where are the Trump tweets about rigged elections in Georgia? It's an absolute disgrace.

For all the whatabouterry claiming the Dems are just as bad: show me one state they have done anything like this in.

Brian?

Gbear wrote: »

Not just female but a gay atheist one.

Unless she was black she couldn't be less Republican.

I'm actually more shocked they elected and atheist than someone who's bi. I lived in Arizona even the Dems there are Christian fundamentalists in my experience. The Republicans are properly off the wall.

Ronaldinho

Brian? wrote: »

even the Dems there are Christian fundamentalists in my experience. The Republicans are properly off the wall.

For all of your denunciations of President Trump and many of them on the money, with posts like these you come across as a bigot yourself.

Brian?

Ronaldinho wrote: »

For all of your denunciations of President Trump and many of them on the money, with posts like these you come across as a bigot yourself.

I don’t understand why you think that’s bigoted.

2 Scoops

Recount called in the Governors race in Florida, DeSantis wins but Gillum is still refusing to concede.

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/15/florida-recount-ron-desantis-prevails-over-andrew-gillum-governor/2006942002/

prawnsambo

2 Scoops wrote: »

Recount called in the Governors race in Florida, DeSantis wins but Gillum is still refusing to concede.

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/15/florida-recount-ron-desantis-prevails-over-andrew-gillum-governor/2006942002/

Because all the votes weren't recounted by the deadline. Not surprised about that, since there have been problems with the machines used to recount the ballots. He may have a case.

Captain Obvious

prawnsambo wrote: »

Because all the votes weren't recounted by the deadline. Not surprised about that, since there have been problems with the machines used to recount the ballots. He may have a case.

2 minutes past the deadline.

Brian?

2 Scoops wrote: »

Recount called in the Governors race in Florida, DeSantis wins but Gillum is still refusing to concede.

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/15/florida-recount-ron-desantis-prevails-over-andrew-gillum-governor/2006942002/

Refusing to concede? It wouldn’t stop the recount if he did. The rules are the rules, a concession is all just PR.

Itssoeasy

2 Scoops wrote: »

Recount called in the Governors race in Florida, DeSantis wins but Gillum is still refusing to concede.

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/15/florida-recount-ron-desantis-prevails-over-andrew-gillum-governor/2006942002/

Gillum did concede initially but the consession phone call is not binding and it's the Florida Secretary of State(a republican btw) who called for it under the election rules in Florida. But sure let's not let the facts get in the way of not being truthful.

pixelburp

The Senate election between Rick Scott and Bill Nelson is heading to another recount: after a machine recount left a difference of 0.154% between candidates, it thus fell below the watermark of 0.25% to trigger a hand recount. Scott has an approximate 12,000 vote lead.

Rhineshark

pixelburp wrote: »

The Senate election between Rick Scott and Bill Nelson is heading to another recount: after a machine recount left a difference of 0.154% between candidates, it thus fell below the watermark of 0.25% to trigger a hand recount. Scott has an approximate 12,000 vote lead.

An *actual* hand count rather than just over/undervotes?

That would be very interesting since the machine recount is pretty useless if there was machine interference.

Nody

By the latest count over 60 million democrat votes in the Mid term election; take into account Trump got a total of 63 million votes in the President election which makes those numbers crazy high and should scare republicans for the upcoming election...

RobertKK

I remember posting after the midterms how each party the Democrats and the Republicans needed each other - otherwise the US would be a one party state.
This was in response to one person stating their wish that the Republicans would disappear into dust and never seen again.
I stated then that one can find good people in both parties, and people in both parties who are questionable in that department.

I was reading Rand Paul's twitter account last night and he is a person I could easily vote for.

https://twitter.com/RandPaul/status/1065385545533190144
https://twitter.com/RandPaul/status/1064978275187998728
https://twitter.com/RandPaul/status/1064978268154138630
https://twitter.com/RandPaul/status/1064978272960811008

That is what moral leadership looks like, and I think it is something most people on either side of the political divide could agree on.

Brian?

RobertKK wrote: »

I remember posting after the midterms how each party the Democrats and the Republicans needed each other - otherwise the US would be a one party state.
This was in response to one person stating their wish that the Republicans would disappear into dust and never seen again.
I stated then that one can find good people in both parties, and people in both parties who are questionable in that department.

I was reading Rand Paul's twitter account last night and he is a person I could easily vote for.

https://twitter.com/RandPaul/status/1065385545533190144
https://twitter.com/RandPaul/status/1064978275187998728
https://twitter.com/RandPaul/status/1064978268154138630
https://twitter.com/RandPaul/status/1064978272960811008

That is what moral leadership looks like, and I think it is something most people on either side of the political divide could agree on.

Occasionally myself and Rand align in our attitudes and beliefs. This is one of those times.

However the vast majority of the time his “moral leadership” is severely lacking and he tows the party line.

ancapailldorcha

I followed Rand Paul on Facebook for some time but gave up when he started resorting to Islamophobic scaremongering.

Captain Obvious

Latest estimate is that 1.4 million voters have been purged from the Georgia voter register since 2012. That's about one in five voters. How are people not marching every day?

Brian?

Captain Obvious wrote: »

Latest estimate is that 1.4 million voters have been purged from the Georgia voter register since 2012. That's about one in five voters. How are people not marching every day?

As I said earlier. It’s an absolute disgrace that should be investigated by the FEC. IMO there should be indictments handed down. But it won’t happen.

Where is Trump’s outrage about voter fraud now a republican has won?

pixelburp

Just to echo what was said in the Trump thread,
It actually looks like the Democrats might end up with +40 House seats as opposed to +39; there's actually still one more seat being counted, California 21st. After initially being called as a GOP win with a 7 point lead, subsequent counting of regions has given Democrat TJ Cox a 0.4 point lead. Remarkably it has taken weeks to count all the ballots; I get California's a big state, but it's crazy how poor the US' counting system can be.