Aer Lingus Fleet/Routes Discussion

kevinandrew · 11-11-2019 11:12pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

Perhaps one of the added A321's?

Pretty much a given if it were to ever happen, very unlikely to be A330 material.

Wouldn't be my preferred choice to put a brand new asset like the A321LR but if there's money to be made and a nice marketing (bribe) package added, they'll likely go for it.

Van.Bosch · 11-11-2019 11:33pm

kevinandrew wrote: »

Pretty much a given if it were to ever happen, very unlikely to be A330 material.

Wouldn't be my preferred choice to put a brand new asset like the A321LR but if there's money to be made and a nice marketing (bribe) package added, they'll likely go for it.

But back to your original point, what is the opportunity cost of that aircraft, could it make more of it was sent to Cleveland or by doing an extra JFK rotation.

kevinandrew · 11-11-2019 11:57pm

Van.Bosch wrote: »

But back to your original point, what is the opportunity cost of that aircraft, could it make more of it was sent to Cleveland or by doing an extra JFK rotation.

I think it depends on what Stewart offers, a marketing package or profit guarantee like what Bradley offered could sway it but on its own it would have a tough time against another JFK frequency or even CLE, PIT etc if they were up for consideration.

OU812 · 12-11-2019 12:03am

kevinandrew wrote: »

No doubt they’d be more successful than Norwegian but would Aer Lingus seriously consider assigning an aircraft for such a low yielding route in a region they already serve remarkably well via JFK, EWR, BDL and to a lesser extent BOS and even PHL?!

I’m sure Stewart would throw plenty of cash their way and they’d make a tidy profit but still, it wouldn’t be on my wish list of routes if I had one.

World's largest Legoland is going to be within 30 minutes of there, due to open in 2020 & I'm sure there'd be other incentives to get them there.

Jack1985 · 12-11-2019 1:02am

Anywhere Aer Lingus can generate profit they’ll fly there is the simple answer.

Graham · 12-11-2019 1:13pm

I think that's an over simplification.

You have 1 plane, 2 potential destinations. Destination A should make €1000 profit, Destination B should make €100,000 profit. Which one do you think they will pick?

Tenger · 12-11-2019 4:09pm

EI321 wrote: »

With EI already taking some of the last few A330-300s on order from Airbus, surely its only a matter of time before they have to seriously consider the A330neo.

Had a look over the IAG capital markets presentation
https://www.iairgroup.com/~/media/Files/I/IAG/documents/CMD%202019%20Final_PRINT.pdf

Slide 124 shows IAG fleet orders. No more A330s due after 2020. Not sure if the indicated deliveres are for Level or if they refer to the 2 imminent EI deliveries. Looks like A321X/LR, B777x, A350 and B787 are the main deliveries 2021-2024. After 2024 the slide just shows "requirement" rather than actual aircraft types.

kevinandrew wrote: »

No doubt they’d be more successful than Norwegian but would Aer Lingus seriously consider assigning an aircraft for such a low yielding route in a region they already serve remarkably well via JFK, EWR, BDL and to a lesser extent BOS and even PHL?! .......

An aspect could be that Stewart serves the hinterland of NYC, which then frees up capacity on the EWR/JFK routes for further connection traffic?

Nibs05 · 12-11-2019 5:36pm

I see still no short haul aircraft for Aer Lingus

Locker10a · 12-11-2019 6:02pm

Nibs05 wrote: »

I see still no short haul aircraft for Aer Lingus

I have no source for this as it’s totally rumors that I heard from someone working in the industry in Ireland (I’ll say no more) but they told me they’d heard about a new arm of EI being mooted, Aer Lingus Express (copy and paste from Iberia express) and future short haul expansion will come in this form, take it with a pinch of salt but it wouldn’t be the aviation industry without such rumors!!

Tenger · 12-11-2019 6:06pm

Slide 125 indicates the IAG shorthaul fleet plans.
92 deliveries over 2020-22, approx 75% of these are A320neo family.
217 (types to be decided) for delivery from 2023-29. The phrase "early replacement of A319/320ceo" is used here.

ohigg84 · 12-11-2019 7:13pm

Tenger wrote: »

Had a look over the IAG capital markets presentation
https://www.iairgroup.com/~/media/Files/I/IAG/documents/CMD%202019%20Final_PRINT.pdf

Slide 124 shows IAG fleet orders. No more A330s due after 2020. Not sure if the indicated deliveres are for Level or if they refer to the 2 imminent EI deliveries. Looks like A321X/LR, B777x, A350 and B787 are the main deliveries 2021-2024. After 2024 the slide just shows "requirement" rather than actual aircraft types.

An aspect could be that Stewart serves the hinterland of NYC, which then frees up capacity on the EWR/JFK routes for further connection traffic?

Interesting, but what about secondhand aircraft?

Wasn't there a rumour EI were meant to be acquiring some ex Jet Airways A330s (reputedly A333s).

Also KLM have only recently announced that they are retiring their fleet of A332/A333s, as they are focusing on acquiring more 787s.

Isn't there a possibility that some of those KLM A330s could fit into the EI fleet.

alancostello · 12-11-2019 9:29pm

ohigg84 wrote: »

Interesting, but what about secondhand aircraft?

Wasn't there a rumour EI were meant to be acquiring some ex Jet Airways A330s (reputedly A333s).

Also KLM have only recently announced that they are retiring their fleet of A332/A333s, as they are focusing on acquiring more 787s.

Isn't there a possibility that some of those KLM A330s could fit into the EI fleet.

I discussed secondhand aircraft not one page of posts ago, feel free to read that comment.

The Jet Airways aircraft weren't in the right condition as was discussed at the time in this thread.

KLM's fleet transition is occurring up to 2025, they are the right engine type for EI however the early aircraft will be too old by then to be worthwhile, and the newer aircraft may be investigated at that time (and only at that time).

Unless they were being retired in the next 12-18 months there are no eyes on them and they're not going to be on anybody's radar for a long time, realistically they're likely to just be taken over by AF.

EIN123 · 12-11-2019 10:31pm

Jack1985 wrote: »

Factual background;

EI Cabin Crew bases - DUB, ORK, SNN and BHD.
EI Flight Deck bases - DUB and ORK.

Belfast City
Crewed using based Cabin Crew (Supplemented by DUB CC via London overnights ex/to-DUB).

Flight Deck operate BHD flights via London overnights ex/to-DUB. There is some ad-hoc positioning by road duties for DUB CC and FD.

Shannon
All flights crewed by based Cabin Crew (Supplemented where required by DUB/ORK* CC via positioning by road duties).

Flight Deck, DUB crew currently operating SNN flights via London overnights ex/to-DUB (including NEO) supplemented by Cork FD (including NEO ops) with overnighting in SNN. There is also some ad-hoc positioning by road.

*Currently to cover A320 services only.

Can ORK based pilots bid to fly from SNN? For example if they wanted to fly to JFK next month could they bid for that and do 2 days flying short haul from Cork and then the remaining 3 would be their SNN-JFK-SNN flights? It wouldn’t have been possible before with the different aircraft types!

Jack1985 · 13-11-2019 3:07am

Graham wrote: »

I think that's an over simplification.

You have 1 plane, 2 potential destinations. Destination A should make €1000 profit, Destination B should make €100,000 profit. Which one do you think they will pick?

I’m not sure how the statement is an over simplification, I can’t remember highlighting two differential profit scenarios with your two vastly different examples.

Anywhere profit is generated the airline will fly. The previous German CEO batted the phrase regularly.

EIN123 wrote: »

Can ORK based pilots bid to fly from SNN? For example if they wanted to fly to JFK next month could they bid for that and do 2 days flying short haul from Cork and then the remaining 3 would be their SNN-JFK-SNN flights? It wouldn’t have been possible before with the different aircraft types!

I couldn’t tell you categorically, but most airlines use a bidding system and if you are qualified on an aircraft with an available trip for your local base within your pattern I can’t see how it wouldn’t be possible.

Tenger · 13-11-2019 12:58pm

In/On the Indo today:

https://www.independent.ie/life/travel/travel-news/aer-lingus-adds-two-new-italy-flights-and-record-number-of-transatlantic-seats-38688169.html?fbclid=IwAR00vSN-8ZAq0BHdDdzfFOfwzqDo5CgpgPKadrdoUBl6J2GF2lCO7XfRwkY

Aer Lingus has announced new direct flights from Dublin to Puglia and Sardinia for its Summer 2020 schedule........The announcements were made at the launch of Aer Lingus's 2020 summer programme - a schedule it says will see its "greatest-ever" capacity to North America.

1.9 million seats will be on sale to transatlantic destinations next summer, it says, with the Orlando, Florida service moving from four to six flights per week.

Miami will grow from two to three flights per week, while Dublin to Seattle is set to shift to a daily service from five flights weekly.

Fleet upgrades will also boost capacity on routes like Los Angeles, Washington D.C. and Minneapolis St. Paul, which will be serviced by a larger Airbus A330

By next summer, Aer Lingus also expects to have replaced its Boeing 757 fleet with four new Airbus A321 neo LR aircraft - offering 20pc better fuel efficiency.
..........
Changes from Cork Airport include switching its new Dubrovnik service from two to three flights per week next summer

ongarboy · 13-11-2019 1:27pm

No mention of the delayed launch of Montreal for 2020 in that article. Does that mean it has been shelved altogether or deferred further?

Jamie2k9 · 13-11-2019 1:41pm

ongarboy wrote: »

No mention of the delayed launch of Montreal for 2020 in that article. Does that mean it has been shelved altogether or deferred further?

Those plans cancelled for 2020.

kevinandrew · 13-11-2019 1:51pm

Nice to see new European routes but is this growth or have a previous two been given the chop to facilitate these additions?

Despite nothing new across the atlantic, that capacity increase is still impressive growth, particularly for the west coast. Montreal being canned is disappointing, the Airbus delays meant they missed the boat entirely with Air Canada taking full advantage. Aer Lingus can’t really afford to miss route opportunities like that again so let’s hope Airbus gets its act together next year.

Locker10a · 13-11-2019 1:58pm

kevinandrew wrote: »

Nice to see new European routes but is this growth or have a previous two been given the chop to facilitate these additions?
.

Could it possibly be space in the schedule due to the 321LRs doing some morning Euro rotations?

Tenger · 13-11-2019 4:17pm

Locker10a wrote: »

Could it possibly be space in the schedule due to the 321LRs doing some morning Euro rotations?

Seems plausible. If they have 4 A321LR landing in early these could operate 2-3 Euro rotations, thus freeing up space in the A320 schedule.

Van.Bosch · 13-11-2019 4:37pm

Tenger wrote: »

Seems plausible. If they have 4 A321LR landing in early these could operate 2-3 Euro rotations, thus freeing up space in the A320 schedule.

Flight times to Alghero are 1250 and back at 1930 which is a long enough sector so not sure the TA A321’s could cover those.

Locker10a · 13-11-2019 4:43pm

Van.Bosch wrote: »

Flight times to Alghero are 1250 and back at 1930 which is a long enough sector so not sure the TA A321’s could cover those.

No not directly, but they can cover earlier sectors on other routes that could then mean the 320ceo schedules could be rejigged

Van.Bosch · 13-11-2019 4:46pm

Locker10a wrote: »

No not directly, but they can cover earlier sectors on other routes that could then mean the 320ceo schedules could be rejigged

True but the 3 hour flight time each way might be a push unless there was a bit of slack in the existing fleet. I guess you can always re jig to make it work.

Someone mentioned EI express above, would this replace EI regional?

IE 222 · 13-11-2019 5:05pm

Does that schedule mean they need to keep all A330s or is there some slack to offload one of the 200s.

OU812 · 13-11-2019 8:04pm

Looks like the 5 year plan for the US has stalled also. Expanding capability is great, but new destinations are needed.

kevinandrew · 13-11-2019 8:15pm

OU812 wrote: »

Looks like the 5 year plan for the US has stalled also. Expanding capability is great, but new destinations are needed.

The five year plan is based on available seats, not number of routes.

alancostello · 13-11-2019 8:26pm

kevinandrew wrote: »

The five year plan is based on available seats, not number of routes.

I can only assume given the similar style of username that this is the same person as klm617 on airliners.net who went on a much longer rant of the same notion on the Irish aviation thread. Just absurd stuff.

kevinandrew · 13-11-2019 8:45pm

Van.Bosch wrote: »

True but the 3 hour flight time each way might be a push unless there was a bit of slack in the existing fleet. I guess you can always re jig to make it work.

Someone mentioned EI express above, would this replace EI regional?

Aer Lingus Express sounds like a replica of Iberia Express.

Iberia launched IB Express with the idea of transferring loss making short haul routes to a lower cost base operation. It triggered serious industrial unrest as staff and unions feared it would lead to job losses or forced lower conditions.

Iberia Express started with a handful of aircraft and quickly grew to over 40, most from Iberia mainline.

I’m not sure Aer Lingus’ short haul network is large enough to be split in a similar way nor would unions allow it.

The unrest at Iberia resulted in two weeks worth of strike action, massive losses and a CEO resignation. Whether IAG think that’s a price worth to pay at Aer Lingus is something we’ll have to wait and see to find out.

Either way, Aer Lingus short haul has stagnated over the last five years, the network has barely grown and the airline has retreated from certain markets while others expand. If cost is the main concern, an IB Express model would undoubtedly be a tempting proposition.

Van.Bosch · 13-11-2019 8:46pm

OU812 wrote: »

Looks like the 5 year plan for the US has stalled also. Expanding capability is great, but new destinations are needed.

Why are new destinations needed? EI exist to make money, they would fly 10A330’s to Boston rather one to 10 destinations if it made them more money.

From an observer point of view, it’s great to see new routes etc but EI are focussed on profit

Jamie2k9 · 13-11-2019 9:58pm

Locker10a wrote: »

Could it possibly be space in the schedule due to the 321LRs doing some morning Euro rotations?

Not a massive amount of extra capacity available. Only 2 A321LR based one doing 7.30 LHR. Question is will the second do a LHR like in winter.

Other than that FAO goes A333 daily and FUE is dropped for summer only.

One to watch out for is if the 5th CDG service will resume and if they get other A321LRs over summer will they be put into short haul service or will there be a backup for T/A.

Aer Lingus Fleet/Routes Discussion

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