Aer Lingus Fleet/Routes Discussion

Tenger

OU812 wrote: »

Looks like the 5 year plan for the US has stalled also. Expanding capability is great, but new destinations are needed.

You must have some insight into EI head office so. I didn't realise the "5 year plan" guaranteed new routes each year.

Adding capacity is still expansion, granted not as interesting as new routes.

sherology

kevinandrew wrote: »

Aer Lingus Express sounds like a replica of Iberia Express.

Iberia launched IB Express with the idea of transferring loss making short haul routes to a lower cost base operation. It triggered serious industrial unrest as staff and unions feared it would lead to job losses or forced lower conditions.

Iberia Express started with a handful of aircraft and quickly grew to over 40, most from Iberia mainline.

I’m not sure Aer Lingus’ short haul network is large enough to be split in a similar way nor would unions allow it.

The unrest at Iberia resulted in two weeks worth of strike action, massive losses and a CEO resignation. Whether IAG think that’s a price worth to pay at Aer Lingus is something we’ll have to wait and see to find out.

Either way, Aer Lingus short haul has stagnated over the last five years, the network has barely grown and the airline has retreated from certain markets while others expand. If cost is the main concern, an IB Express model would undoubtedly be a tempting proposition.

Isn't EI short haul 'express' already? It's just a std. cabin with buy-onboard. Perhaps with LR/XLR long haul cabins coming into the fray on early Short haul routes, they may want to rebrand the current 'all economy seating' fleet as 'express' so folks know what they're flying on/getting cabin-wise. Don't see EI disrupting unions and agreements for all pain/no gain. Just a fleet distinguisher IMO - if at all true.

Locker10a

sherology wrote: »

Isn't EI short haul 'express' already? It's just a std. cabin with buy-onboard. Perhaps with LR/XLR long haul cabins coming into the fray on early Short haul routes, they may want to rebrand the current 'all economy seating' fleet as 'express' so folks know what they're flying on/getting cabin-wise. Don't see EI disrupting unions and agreements for all pain/no gain. Just a fleet distinguisher IMO - if at all true.

Yeah, I’d see pretty much the whole short haul product becoming EI express, with expansion coming on smaller regional jets through Stobart/Hibernia/CityJet

kevinandrew

sherology wrote: »

Isn't EI short haul 'express' already? It's just a std. cabin with buy-onboard. Perhaps with LR/XLR long haul cabins coming into the fray on early Short haul routes, they may want to rebrand the current 'all economy seating' fleet as 'express' so folks know what they're flying on/getting cabin-wise. Don't see EI disrupting unions and agreements for all pain/no gain. Just a fleet distinguisher IMO - if at all true.

Iberia Express (and presumably any Aer Lingus Express) is less about the on board product and more about the cost base. It was a way to transfer loss making routes and staff to a lower cost operation. The product remained pretty much the same as Iberia apart from a watered down euro business class up front similar to Vueling and now Aer Lingus’ own Aer Space.

As I said, I agree it might be a bit much to split the short haul operation and anger unions in the process just to achieve lower costs. However, Aer Lingus are clearly struggling to grow short haul, the network has been stagnant for a while bar the odd addition every other summer or so.

It wouldn’t surprise me to see them attempt something like Express. Whether it would be wise or not, is another thing.

alancostello

kevinandrew wrote: »

Iberia Express (and presumably any Aer Lingus Express) is less about the on board product and more about the cost base. It was a way to transfer loss making routes and staff to a lower cost operation. The product remained pretty much the same as Iberia apart from a watered down euro business class up front similar to Vueling and now Aer Lingus’ own Aer Space.

As I said, I agree it might be a bit much to split the short haul operation and anger unions in the process just to achieve lower costs. However, Aer Lingus are clearly struggling to grow short haul, the network has been stagnant for a while bar the odd addition every other summer or so.

It wouldn’t surprise me to see them attempt something like Express. Whether it would be wise or not, is another thing.

I think it might be inevitable, BA has Mixed Fleet, IB has IB Express, Vueling and Level are again attempts at the same, they interline and feed the main carriers but just at a lower cost base. If it means routes that were otherwise financially inoperable or cancelled are launched or come back, I'm all for it. If EI take back Regional ops and blend them in to an Express-style operation, all the better!

Locker10a

alancostello wrote: »

I think it might be inevitable, BA has Mixed Fleet, IB has IB Express, Vueling and Level are again attempts at the same, they interline and feed the main carriers but just at a lower cost base. If it means routes that were otherwise financially inoperable or cancelled are launched or come back, I'm all for it. If EI take back Regional ops and blend them in to an Express-style operation, all the better!

In fairness EI are a very different scale compared to BA and IB, and have already really scaled back staff costs over the past 15 years. Their cabin crew operate mixed fleet just like BA and are used to their maximum productivity with FTLs, it’s not unheard of for crew to be grounded due to exceeding their hours. Pay is on a par with the cost of living here in Ireland, certainly not excessive and whatever you’re paid in EI you earn it!

I see EI express as a new arm of regional jet flying. The unions (crucially the pilots) have agreed to outsourced regional jet flying already. This is how CityJet wearing the shamrock came about. There’s nothing to prevent this expanding with Ejets or CRJs, and EI express would be the brand but operate similar to KLM cityhopper for example.
Would be useful for increasing frequency and making thinner routes more viable

Van.Bosch

Locker10a wrote: »

In fairness EI are a very different scale compared to BA and IB, and have already really scaled back staff costs over the past 15 years. Their cabin crew operate mixed fleet just like BA and are used to their maximum productivity with FTLs, it’s not unheard of for crew to be grounded due to exceeding their hours. Pay is on a par with the cost of living here in Ireland, certainly not excessive and whatever you’re paid in EI you earn it!

I see EI express and a new arm of regional jet flying. The unions (crucially the pilots) have agreed to outsourced regional jet flying already. This is how CityJet wearing the shamrock came about. There’s nothing to prevent this expanding with Ejets or CRJs, and EI express would be the brand but operate similar to KLM cityhopper for example.
Would be useful for increasing frequency and making thinner routes more viable

I assume you mean you see EI express AS a new arm, not AND?

I agree - do you think they would take all the EI regional stuff back in house or combine all outsourced ops into EI express?

Locker10a

Van.Bosch wrote: »

I assume you mean you see EI express AS a new arm, not AND?

I agree - do you think they would take all the EI regional stuff back in house or combine all outsourced ops into EI express?

Sorry yes, edited.
I’m not sure but logically I think it would make more sense to have everything under the one “express” umbrella so both ATR and regional jets. It’s all pie in the sky at the moment but it would be a good way for them to expand and up frequency. Regional Jets could open up new routes maybe to Scandinavia and add frequency to other key euro markets. Would also free up mainline flying to add capacity where it’s demanded.

EIMH

Next A330 first flight today

EI-EIM Aer Lingus Airbus A330-302
Manufacturer Serial Number (MSN) 1950
Aircraft Type Airbus A330-302
First Flight 21 Nov 2019
Age 0.0 Years
Test registration F-WWCR

kevinandrew

The next A321LR has also been spotted in Hamburg, EI-LRD is in primer with its tail painted. Still a good few months away at this stage.

flange888

kevinandrew wrote:

The next A321LR has also been spotted in Hamburg, EI-LRD is in primer with its tail painted. Still a good few months away at this stage.

February I suspect...

EIMH

EIMH wrote: »

Next A330 first flight today

EI-EIM Aer Lingus Airbus A330-302
Manufacturer Serial Number (MSN) 1950
Aircraft Type Airbus A330-302
First Flight 21 Nov 2019
Age 0.0 Years
Test registration F-WWCR

Won’t be seen in Ireland for quite some time. I’m told she’s going in to storage in Malta till Feb/Mar. Where as the 2nd one due is coming to Dublin, I think to be stored for a while.

Jamie2k9

Deleted User wrote: »

Won’t be seen in Ireland for quite some time. I’m told she’s going in to storage in Malta till Feb/Mar. Where as the 2nd one due is coming to Dublin, I think to be stored for a while.

Asset Depreciation at play here. Think they did this a few years ago as well.

Hotblack Desiato

Waiting for the 201 plate

Tenger

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Asset Depreciation at play here. Think they did this a few years ago as well.

Yup. Parked up an A333 near the tower in Dublin for about 3 months.

goingnowhere

Its nice and dry in Malta...

The question is it is leased and when does the lease actually start. EI have no need of a new bird until March at the earliest.

basill

Time will tell. These types of plans have been employed over the years only to quickly be reversed when something breaks down and hire ins are required. It then inevitably ends up in tears and additional costs that would have otherwise not been incurred had they just entered the aircraft into service in the first place and used it as a spare.

EI321

I suspect a shortage of Pilots is playing a role in this.

0lddog

EI321 wrote: »

I suspect a shortage of Pilots is playing a role in this.

Also, how is the headcount in engineering ?

adam88

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Asset Depreciation at play here. Think they did this a few years ago as well.

What’s the rationale behind this ??

Jamie2k9

adam88 wrote: »

What’s the rationale behind this ??

At a high level, once an asset is brought into use it loses value over it's lifetime and instead of the company waiting to write it off in 15 years they write a small amount off each year. Shareholders wouldn't be pleased if in 15 years there was a 100 million loss because the asset leaves the company, instead they will write off 66k each year.

In this case if they brought it into service on 31 December (year end 31 December) that 24 hours would result in them writing down 66k in it's value because the policy is generally a full year's deprecation in the year it's brought into service. I have not checked what EI's but they will always prefer assets to arrive earlier rather than later in a financial year.

Goingnowhere is probally right here and they could be leased.

Van.Bosch

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

At a high level, once an asset is brought into use it loses value over it's lifetime and instead of the company waiting to write it off in 15 years they write a small amount off each year. Shareholders wouldn't be pleased if in 15 years there was a 100 million loss because the asset leaves the company, instead they will write off 66k each year.

In this case if they brought it into service on 31 December (year end 31 December) that 24 hours would result in them writing down 66k in it's value because the policy is generally a full year's deprecation in the year it's brought into service. I have not checked what EI's but they will always prefer assets to arrive earlier rather than later in a financial year.

Goingnowhere is probally right here and they could be leased.

There would still be depreciation if it’s used or not though.

Jamie2k9

Van.Bosch wrote: »

There would still be depreciation if it’s used or not though.

Not if they don't sign ownership.

kevinandrew

The same was done with EI-GCF;

20/11/17 - Delivered TLS-DUB
15/02/18 - Test Flight DUB-DUB
03/03/18 - Entered Service DUB-JFK

As you’d expect, the aircraft wasn’t needed in mid-winter so went into storage for a few months until it was required. I’m guessing it’s the exact same situation this time around.

California Dreamer

Out of curiosity has there been any mention of SH fleet replacement? 34 A320's with an age of 9-20 years old.

Anyone know the cycles on the oldest birds?

VG31

California Dreamer wrote: »

Out of curiosity has there been any mention of SH fleet replacement? 34 A320's with an age of 9-20 years old.

Lufthansa have plenty of A320s as old as 30 years.

California Dreamer

VG31 wrote: »

Lufthansa have plenty of A320s as old as 30 years.

Yes I get that, and airlines in the US have fleets that are older but thats not what I asked.

Also on closer inspection of the LH fleet it shows replacements as well.

kevinandrew

I'm going to hazard a guess that IAG is holding the cards when it comes to the short haul fleet replacement, I'd expect Aer Lingus will need to issue a request for proposals from the manufacturers, chose the successful proposal and then build a business case for IAG to consider whether the investment will deliver a desired return.

Aer Lingus short haul is likely quite marginal, they'll need to work hard to make a case for brand new aircraft. I wouldn't be surprised to see the previously discussed 'Aer Lingus Express' model or something similar to appear when fleet renewal is considered.

sherology

kevinandrew wrote: »

I'm going to hazard a guess that IAG is holding the cards when it comes to the short haul fleet replacement, I'd expect Aer Lingus will need to issue a request for proposals from the manufacturers, chose the successful proposal and then build a business case for IAG to consider whether the investment will deliver a desired return.

Aer Lingus short haul is likely quite marginal, they'll need to work hard to make a case for brand new aircraft. I wouldn't be surprised to see the previously discussed 'Aer Lingus Express' model or something similar to appear when fleet renewal is considered.

I'm all for newy-newness, but as a passenger, the EI SH cabins I've been on look brand new - even the oldest a321s, and there have rarely been tech issues (although they do happen).

Newer toilet modules would be nice - same for a330 - as they always show 'wear'. Larger bins would be a great addition to stop the 'up-down' cabin trawlers... But I think EI will just lease non-new aircraft if they grab a good deal... The a321lrs and XLRs will mop-up the early morning routes over time, leaving the older-frames on the LCC routes perhaps. Keep'em maintained (proactively preferably - time-limited items), and have a spare.

Locker10a

California Dreamer wrote: »

Out of curiosity has there been any mention of SH fleet replacement? 34 A320's with an age of 9-20 years old.

Anyone know the cycles on the oldest birds?

Pure guess work here, but if IAG go ahead with their MAX order to be distributed to Vueling and BA(LGW) some of the newer 320s even neos ex Vueling might find themselves coming over to EI.
Alternatively older frames might be replaced with second hand birds, I think EI-FNJ/GAL/GAM were previously owned