Will Britain piss off and get on with Brexit II (mod warning in OP)

swampgas · 11-09-2020 11:10pm

Deleted User wrote: »

So are Greece.

That's been done to death in other threads. You might ask the Greeks why they decided to stick with the EU rather than "Grexit". (Hint: they threw themselves under a succession of buses, but unlike the English were smart enough to realise that leaving the EU was not a wise move.)

First Up · 12-09-2020 9:42am

swampgas wrote:

That's been done to death in other threads. You might ask the Greeks why they decided to stick with the EU rather than "Grexit". (Hint: they threw themselves under a succession of buses, but unlike the English were smart enough to realise that leaving the EU was not a wise move.)

Yes, the evil EU told the Greeks to stop paying themselves pensions at 52. How cruel.

The only bus in view is the one with the NHS nonsense smeared on the side. The Brexiteers are queuing up to throw themselves under that one.

Donald Trump · 14-09-2020 4:32pm

EU not signing off on allowing London to clear trades.

Lets see how they react to that!

Leroy42 · 14-09-2020 5:01pm

Donald Trump wrote: »

EU not signing off on allowing London to clear trades.

Lets see how they react to that!

You already know.

They will star the whole "EU needs us more', 'CoL is the only way the EU even works', 'CoL survived the blitz, a bit of bureaucracy is nothing' (that was actually an opinion piece at the weekend!).

It will be labelled as the EU trying to punish the Uk for simply looking to reclaim sovereignty and proves why it is better to leave since something or other.

Donald Trump · 14-09-2020 8:10pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

You already know.

They will star the whole "EU needs us more', 'CoL is the only way the EU even works', 'CoL survived the blitz, a bit of bureaucracy is nothing' (that was actually an opinion piece at the weekend!).

It will be labelled as the EU trying to punish the Uk for simply looking to reclaim sovereignty and proves why it is better to leave since something or other.

Well there will be a lot of people and organisations with deep pockets who will be sweating a little more and putting pressure on the politicians.

GazzaL · 14-09-2020 8:51pm

All five living former British Prime Ministers have spoken out against the proposed Internal Market Bill. https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-david-cameron-admits-misgivings-about-boris-johnsons-plan-to-override-withdrawal-agreement-12071531

ambro25 · 15-09-2020 9:20am

Donald Trump wrote: »

Well there will be a lot of people and organisations with deep pockets who will be sweating a little more and putting pressure on the politicians.

Would still more finservices' pressure on the Tories, have better prospects of success now, relative to the last 4+ years?

They're anything if not pragmatic, and Dublin, Paris, Luxembourg and Frankfurt (also others in & outside EU27) have all done well out of brexoding CoL entities so far -Dublin best amongst them all, by some reports- and with a fair bit left to brexode still.

Brexit supporters and assorted other red top readers can all get excited by EU-blaming messaging: at the end of the day (...financial year...) it's national Ministries of Finance in Ireland, France, Germany <etc> who will be reaping the dividends of that rhetoric, not No.11 Downing Street, still less the average taxpaying John Smith in GB.

Donald Trump · 15-09-2020 9:51am

ambro25 wrote: »

Would still more finservices' pressure on the Tories, have better prospects of success now, relative to the last 4+ years?

They're anything if not pragmatic, and Dublin, Paris, Luxembourg and Frankfurt (also others in & outside EU27) have all done well out of brexoding CoL entities so far -Dublin best amongst them all, by some reports- and with a fair bit left to brexode still.

Brexit supporters and assorted other red top readers can all get excited by EU-blaming messaging: at the end of the day (...financial year...) it's national Ministries of Finance in Ireland, France, Germany <etc> who will be reaping the dividends of that rhetoric, not No.11 Downing Street, still less the average taxpaying John Smith in GB.

If there is one thing that financial services hate it's regulation.

There was an arrogance on the ground over there that being blocked wasn't really ever going to happen because the EU needed the City to provide financial services. So plenty thought that they would be definitely continuing on as normal - just with less regulations and bureaucracy

ambro25 · 15-09-2020 10:04am

Donald Trump wrote: »

If there is one thing that financial services hate it's regulation.

There was an arrogance on the ground over there that being blocked wasn't really ever going to happen because the EU needed the City to provide financial services. So plenty thought that they would be definitely continuing on as normal - just with less regulations and bureaucracy

Is it?

We can't be talking about the *same* financial services here.

I'm talking about insurers and asset managers (mostly gone to Lux), investment banks (mostly gone to Paris & Frankfurt), day traders (mostly gone to Amsterdam), corpo law firms (sprinkled everywhere)...'above-board' services in need of permanent MIFID, DAC6 <etc> compliance, and hundreds of entities and hundreds of €billions' worth of assets (emerging rumours of €tn threshold reached, actually) already moved out of the CoL in the name of commercial pragmatism. The FT is full of notices over the past couple of years at least, and that is the visible part of the brexoding CoL iceberg.

Might you be talking about tax advisers/structurers with permalinks to offshore Crown territories and the like? For those, I can well conceive that regulation must be horrendous indeed, and that they would be pushing/underwriting the ERG's notion of Singapore on Thames.

Donald Trump · 15-09-2020 10:29am

ambro25 wrote: »

Is it?

We can't be talking about the *same* financial services here.

I'm talking about insurers and asset managers (mostly gone to Lux), investment banks (mostly gone to Paris & Frankfurt), day traders (mostly gone to Amsterdam), corpo law firms (sprinkled everywhere)...'above-board' services in need of permanent MIFID, DAC6 <etc> compliance, and hundreds of entities and hundreds of €billions' worth of assets (emerging rumours of €tn threshold reached, actually) already moved out of the CoL in the name of commercial pragmatism. The FT is full of notices over the past couple of years at least, and that is the visible part of the brexoding CoL iceberg.

Might you be talking about tax advisers/structurers with permalinks to offshore Crown territories and the like? For those, I can well conceive that regulation must be horrendous indeed, and that they would be pushing/underwriting the ERG's notion of Singapore on Thames.

I think you might be getting confused.

Edit: Just to add. You should have a read of this to get an idea of how some people think there https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-01-13/the-city-of-london-wants-to-have-its-brexit-cake-and-eat-it

ambro25 · 15-09-2020 2:10pm

Donald Trump wrote: »

I think you might be getting confused.

Edit: Just to add. You should have a read of this to get an idea of how some people think there https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-01-13/the-city-of-london-wants-to-have-its-brexit-cake-and-eat-it

No, I don't think so.

Having such office neighbours, and occasional fag break compadres, as Columbia Threadneedle's brexoded lot, I'm well aware that Brexit hasn't killed off the CoL's preeminence as a capital turnplate, nor is it going to short-term at least.

But 'financial services' covers an awfully large scope of activities, and this plus ça change take on the future of the CoL (-by the CoL itself) reminds me an awful lot about the misplaced 'they need us more than we need them' ideological take on the Brexit balance of power in other activity sectors.

The byline of your linked article is well-phrased, in that respect: This is confidence (ND: of Carney/the CoL) bordering on complacency. Particularly in view of the current situation (and Dombrowski's latest), some 9 months after that Bloomberg article.

15-09-2020 2:45pm

There’s a reason why (ignoring Gibraltar) the strongest remain votes came from London. Forget Scotland, London is the most pro Eu part of the uk.

Donald Trump · 15-09-2020 2:57pm

ambro25 wrote: »

No, I don't think so.

Having such office neighbours, and occasional fag break compadres, as Columbia Threadneedle's brexoded lot, I'm well aware that Brexit hasn't killed off the CoL's preeminence as a capital turnplate, nor is it going to short-term at least.

But 'financial services' covers an awfully large scope of activities, and this plus ça change take on the future of the CoL (-by the CoL itself) reminds me an awful lot about the misplaced 'they need us more than we need them' ideological take on the Brexit balance of power in other activity sectors.

The byline of your linked article is well-phrased, in that respect: This is confidence (ND: of Carney/the CoL) bordering on complacency. Particularly in view of the current situation (and Dombrowski's latest), some 9 months after that Bloomberg article.

There is a flaw in your logic. You point to an article that Luxembourg are the biggest beneficiaries of Brexit. That is a relative measure (how much of that pie they obtained relative to other countries) not an absolute one.

The Banks were always going to have to move, or set up, some operations within the EU. That was a given. Of those operations, you can identify which locations benefited most.

What is at stake here is the clearing of Euro trades. There was never a real belief in the City that that was realistically at threat. Or do you think that they have already accepted that they won't have this going forward? Because it isn't actually decided yet and is likely that they will keep it. If it goes from London, that has huge implications for jobs and business there.

If the City was given what it wanted, on the terms that it wanted, it would have free range to profit from regulatory arbitrage.

ambro25 · 15-09-2020 3:58pm

Donald Trump wrote: »

There is a flaw in your logic. You point to an article that Luxembourg are the biggest beneficiaries of Brexit. That is a relative measure (how much of that pie they obtained relative to other countries) not an absolute one.

The Banks were always going to have to move, or set up, some operations within the EU. That was a given. Of those operations, you can identify which locations benefited most.

What is at stake here is the clearing of Euro trades. There was never a real belief in the City that that was realistically at threat. Or do you think that they have already accepted that they won't have this going forward? Because it isn't actually decided yet and is likely that they will keep it. If it goes from London, that has huge implications for jobs and business there.

If the City was given what it wanted, on the terms that it wanted, it would have free range to profit from regulatory arbitrage.

I agree with your initial distinction (and Luxembourg isn't the main beneficiary of CoL relocations to date: it's Dublin), but not with your counter-argument of a logic flaw, since my original post took issue with (my understanding of-) your argument that (Brit) finservices would put more pressure on (Brit) politicians, in response to the EU stalling on a decision to allow London to clear (Euro) trades post-Brexit.

Clearing of Euro trades is heavily EU-regulated. Given the palpable absence of traction gained by the private sector (the portion with a vested interest in the status quo) over British politicians in the last 4 years, I'm struggling to see what further traction they could achieve in the few months left to try and arrange something that supersedes the EU27's best interests as maintained under the EU's unilateral measures.

Jizique · 18-09-2020 5:48pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

True but what shocks me is the complete death of base self-interest from these people. They've placed themselves directly in the firing line just before this either blows up or they capitulate. Someone I know in DIT told me that Liam Fox was apparently quite reasonable but his replacement, Liz Truss never shows up there at all.

They're supposed to be "levelling up" the UK but they're on course to trash what remains of its manufacturing sector.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/09/18/credit-global-britain-liam-foxs-wto-candidacy-has-got-far/

Interesting to see the Telegraph claiming the success of Fox in getting to the second round is a confirmation of the success of Global Britain

GazzaL · 18-09-2020 8:12pm

I've had British businesses and their solicitors tell me over the last few weeks that Britain hasn't left the EU. I've almost given up trying to explain that they've already left, and the transition period is up in just over 3 months.

blinding · 18-09-2020 8:26pm

GazzaL wrote: »

I've had British businesses and their solicitors tell me over the last few weeks that Britain hasn't left the EU. I've almost given up trying to explain that they've already left, and the transition period is up in just over 3 months.

Tis hard to get out of Empires ~ ~ Even Mentally.

Has the 26 Counties ever actually mentally left the British Empire ?

GazzaL · 18-09-2020 8:42pm

blinding wrote: »

Tis hard to get out of Empires ~ ~ Even Mentally.

Has the 26 Counties ever actually mentally left the British Empire ?

Not sure what my post has to do with the British Empire or Irish attitude towards Britain.

It's crazy that they don't realise that they've left the EU, particularly people dealing with commercial contracts.

ancapailldorcha · 18-09-2020 8:43pm

Jizique wrote: »

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/09/18/credit-global-britain-liam-foxs-wto-candidacy-has-got-far/

Interesting to see the Telegraph claiming the success of Fox in getting to the second round is a confirmation of the success of Global Britain

I wouldn't call that interesting. I'd call it a pathetic attempt at trying to portray Brexit as some sort of nationalistic triumph. Fox isn't going to win and even if he does, it's an apolitical position in a toothless organisation.

blinding · 18-09-2020 8:45pm

GazzaL wrote: »

Not sure what my post has to do with the British Empire or Irish attitude towards Britain.

It's crazy that they don't realise that they've left the EU, particularly people dealing with commercial contracts.

Its hard to get away from the Mentality of Empire !

Has the 26 Counties ever really come to grips that it left the British Empire.

There is something about Empires that is hard to get out of mentally ! !

First Up · 18-09-2020 9:03pm

blinding wrote:

There is something about Empires that is hard to get out of mentally ! !

Speak for yourself.

Leroy42 · 18-09-2020 9:16pm

Sorry, what empire were the UK part of?

lawred2 · 19-09-2020 8:54pm

blinding wrote: »

Its hard to get away from the Mentality of Empire !

Has the 26 Counties ever really come to grips that it left the British Empire.

There is something about Empires that is hard to get out of mentally ! !

huh?

davedanon · 25-09-2020 11:29am

Chris Grey's Brexit blog:

https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2020/09/less-than-hundred-days-left.html

Leroy42 · 25-09-2020 12:00pm

His thoughts on the refusal to extend the transition period

It is becoming clearer by the day, especially in the light of the predictable resurgence of coronavirus, that Johnson’s refusal to extend the Transition Period when he had the chance was a major and possibly catastrophic error of judgment. Far from putting pressure on the EU to ‘blink at the last minute’, it has left Britain woefully unready to cope even if there is a deal. As with the inevitability of an end to frictionless trade, the government was warned over and over again by business bodies and others that this would be the case but chose to ignore them.

. https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2020/09/less-than-hundred-days-left.html

Seth Brundle · 25-09-2020 12:58pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

His thoughts on the refusal to extend the transition period

. https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2020/09/less-than-hundred-days-left.html

To be fair to Johnson, it wasn't his decision to reject an extension. Johnson would have little input into big decisions like that. Cummings makes all of the important decisions

Leroy42 · 25-09-2020 1:04pm

Seth Brundle wrote: »

To be fair to Johnson, it wasn't his decision to reject an extension. Johnson would have little input into big decisions like that. Cummings makes all of the important decisions

To be fair? He is the PM, if he didn't have much input then that is, even more, his fault.

It will, I believe, no matter who took the decision, go down as one of the worst political decisions for many years. PM makes the final decision, regardless of who told him to.

TM was going to go down as one of the worst PM's ever, but this could tip the balance in favour of Johnson. They knew they weren't, and couldn't be ready in time. They knew COVID-19 was causing massive problems. But they ignored all of that on the gamble that the EU would fold.

davedanon · 25-09-2020 1:21pm

Grey says that Brandon Lewis' shocking admission that the UK was intending to break international law was basically dictated to him by one of Cummings' main guys from the Leave campaign, Oliver Lewis. He also says that the Leave crowd are basically running things, displaying open contempt for cabinet ministers whose opinions are not considered of any value. So Boris is lolling around uselessly, like Theoden in LotR, while Grima Cummings whispers in his ear and has his lackeys running the government for him. There are also many rumours (not in Grey's blog) that Johnson has had enough and wants to quit in January.

fly_agaric · 25-09-2020 2:29pm

davedanon wrote: »

He also says that the Leave crowd are basically running things

I wonder will the shower running the UK ever wake up from the dream?

They seem to be fighting in their sleep with the "enemies" they have already dispatched.

"Vote leave" won (congrats), the UK has left the EU, the "remoaners" were all vanquished and banished to the outer darkness.

However much they might wish it were not so, the EU is still going to exist & be around tomorrow for them to deal with & hammer out some sort of compromise.

As I've thought before, perhaps the anti-EU leading Tory politicians are just too old and stuck in their ways now to do anything else?

Nate--IRL-- · 25-09-2020 2:35pm

An "enemy" is required for them to stay relevant. The Specifics don't matter, so it's constantly shifting.

Nate

davedanon · 25-09-2020 2:43pm

Chris Grey says that the reason for that is that they don't know what Brexit means - apart from 'Brexit'. They don't know what they want, except that whatever is proposed is never enough. That's why they can't tell the EU what they want. It's a bit like 1984, where the state is constantly at war, always has been at war, and always will be at war, with Eurasia. Brexiters are always fighting for Brexit but they don't actually want to implement Brexit, because Brexit is a chimera, a phantom. Similarly Boris wanted to be PM, want to have been PM, but not do the actual PM'ing. Donald's the same. He can't govern. He can only campaign for himself.

Leroy42 · 25-09-2020 3:02pm

Exactly, and the recent Japan trade deal shows up the fairy tale that is BRexit. They didn't achieve much in the way of better results than with the EU deal, and were forced to agree to more state aid rules than had been the case with the EU.

So far from UK bestriding the world again like the empire of old, the world has changed and the very reason for the EU, that of being able to provide a combined might to stand up to the US and others, is the very reason they have found that Brexit is not what they all dreamed it would be.

Padre_Pio · 25-09-2020 3:44pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

Exactly, and the recent Japan trade deal shows up the fairy tale that is BRexit. They didn't achieve much in the way of better results than with the EU deal, and were forced to agree to more state aid rules than had been the case with the EU.

So far from UK bestriding the world again like the empire of old, the world has changed and the very reason for the EU, that of being able to provide a combined might to stand up to the US and others, is the very reason they have found that Brexit is not what they all dreamed it would be.

Woah woah woah, there is no Japan trade deal.
There is an agreement in principle, we have yet to see what the final document looks like.

ohnonotgmail · 25-09-2020 4:01pm

I think somebody needs to look at a map

The Port of Liverpool is “ideally placed” to help overcome potential major Brexit delays that could soon hit Dover, Peel Ports has said.

https://www.business-live.co.uk/ports-logistics/peel-ports-says-liverpool-ideally-18988067

25-09-2020 8:35pm

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

I think somebody needs to look at a map

https://www.business-live.co.uk/ports-logistics/peel-ports-says-liverpool-ideally-18988067

Its not a bananas idea.
From the article:
'The Port of Liverpool has in recent weeks seen new ferry routes launched, with Spain and Portugal with CLdN in addition to more capacity being added to existing services.'
These are the same services calling to Dublin. The population center of the UK is much closer to Liverpool than Dover, making distribution practical.

ohnonotgmail · 25-09-2020 8:56pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Its not a bananas idea.
From the article:
'The Port of Liverpool has in recent weeks seen new ferry routes launched, with Spain and Portugal with CLdN in addition to more capacity being added to existing services.'
These are the same services calling to Dublin. The population center of the UK is much closer to Liverpool than Dover, making distribution practical.

It is also 10-20 times the distance. If the route was such a great idea they would be using it already.

astrofool · 26-09-2020 11:18am

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

It is also 10-20 times the distance. If the route was such a great idea they would be using it already.

It'll be a great idea when they're spending longer in a queue in Dover than they would on a ferry to Liverpool.

Sorry, I meant to say it was probably less awful than Dover post brexit, just like every deal they make will end up being an awful version of what they had pre-brexit. But they get to keep all those people out...

Padre_Pio · 26-09-2020 11:41am

astrofool wrote: »

It'll be a great idea when they're spending longer in a queue in Dover than they would on a ferry to Liverpool.

Sorry, I meant to say it was probably less awful than Dover post brexit, just like every deal they make will end up being an awful version of what they had pre-brexit. But they get to keep all those people out...

Takes 3 hours longer driving in the wrong direction to get to Liverpool from London

blinding · 26-09-2020 12:07pm

I just don’t know how Ireland is going to get anything at all through the British Land Bridge ! !

The British will obviously Prioritise all the British Stuff, so all the Irish stuff might as well wait on the Island of Ireland.

Forget about Irish part drop offs in Britain and Irish part pickups . There will be no point in any Irish Lorries what so ever going to Britain. The British will just have to Prioritise all of the British Lorries. Irish Lorries would just be a Nuisance in such Circumstances ! !

26-09-2020 12:22pm

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Takes 3 hours longer driving in the wrong direction to get to Liverpool from London

I don't follow?
Depending on what the product is and where the customer is, Liverpool or Immingham on the east coast could be valid alternatives if Dover is overloaded.

The population center of the UK is near Derby.

ohnonotgmail · 26-09-2020 7:43pm

astrofool wrote: »

It'll be a great idea when they're spending longer in a queue in Dover than they would on a ferry to Liverpool.

Sorry, I meant to say it was probably less awful than Dover post brexit, just like every deal they make will end up being an awful version of what they had pre-brexit. But they get to keep all those people out...

Not as bad as an absolute cluster**** is not a glowing recommendation.

J Mysterio · 10-10-2020 10:45am

Absolute state of this tweet from Home Office.

https://twitter.com/ukhomeoffice/status/1314551192505081864?s=20

'Foreign National Offenders'
'Foreign Criminals'

McGiver · 10-10-2020 11:12pm

J Mysterio wrote:

Absolute state of this tweet from Home Office.

Hungarian regime language but what's worse Hungary would use it for asylum seekers or migrants, not for EU citizens. So HMG took it further. Well done.

J Mysterio · 16-10-2020 9:48pm

https://twitter.com/GaspardWinckler/status/1317108947745198084?s=20

Donald Trump · 16-10-2020 9:57pm

J Mysterio wrote: »

https://twitter.com/GaspardWinckler/status/1317108947745198084?s=20

It's life Jim, but not as we know it

Padre_Pio · 16-10-2020 10:24pm

Donald Trump wrote: »

It's life Jim, but not as we know it

Parcel motel is going to make a killing on both sides of the border now :pac:

ltd440 · 17-10-2020 3:13pm

J Mysterio wrote: »

https://twitter.com/GaspardWinckler/status/1317108947745198084?s=20

"Set phasers to shun" is the best reply on that feed ðŸ˜€

3d4life · 17-10-2020 3:18pm

So anyway,

Seems BoJo has had to pull back on telling the people of Manchester what to do as the local polis have made it clear they will not be enforcers.

Will he still be PM at the end of the year ?

joeguevara · 17-10-2020 9:46pm

J Mysterio wrote: »

https://twitter.com/GaspardWinckler/status/1317108947745198084?s=20

Must be very disappointing for UK Trekkies that Shatner didn’t attempt to Klingon. Big worry is Boris will retaliate and instruct military to ‘fire at will’.

droidman123 · 18-10-2020 1:27am

joeguevara wrote: »

Must be very disappointing for UK Trekkies that Shatner didn’t attempt to Klingon. Big worry is Boris will retaliate and instruct military to ‘fire at will’.

The days of those scumbags "fireing at will" are well gone

Will Britain piss off and get on with Brexit II (mod warning in OP)

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