Will Britain piss off and get on with Brexit II (mod warning in OP)

theological

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It's become like a religion at this stage. Devoid of sense and meaning, it only exists to justify their sense of entitlement and outrage.

And the selfishness of some of these people is simply brobdingnagian. They're happy to see whole communities devastated for their xenophobia or illusions of sovereignty but the government needs to build a lorry park nearby or the EU decides they need to pay a pittance for a tourist visa and they lose their minds.

I prefer to follow a real God, in whom I find much more meaning than in anything secular.

I think the apocalyptic predictions and the unwavering faith in a human institution belongs to the hard-core continuity remainers.

Donald Trump

theological wrote: »

I prefer to follow a real God, in whom I find much more meaning than in anything secular.

I think the apocalyptic predictions and the unwavering faith in a human institution belongs to the hard-core continuity remainers.

Ah sure as it says in the Bible:


"Put up thy borders against thy neighbours"

theological

Donald Trump wrote: »

Ah sure as it says in the Bible:


"Put up thy borders against thy neighbours"

I don't suggest that my views and outlooks on politics are specifically Christian. Other Christians of course disagree with me on this and other issues. That's fine, we agree on more important matters.

Let's stick to discussing Brexit, and let's avoid the ad hominems. We should be able to discuss this respectfully, as opposed to using ad hominems.

davedanon

theological wrote: »

I don't suggest that my views and outlooks on politics are specifically Christian. Other Christians of course disagree with me on this and other issues. That's fine, we agree on more important matters.

Let's stick to discussing Brexit, and let's avoid the ad hominems. We should be able to discuss this respectfully, as opposed to using ad hominems.

'Ad hominem' is name-calling. Who has resorted to that?

declanflynn

steddyeddy wrote: »

You may say that P but I live in England now and Brexiters generally will admit nothing when it comes to the cost of Brexit. They're utterly delusional.

Cut them loose and the sooner the better, we will be far better off without them, what did Alex Ferguson do anytime he got a sniff of a trouble maker in the club?

weisses

theological wrote: »

I prefer to follow a real God, in whom I find much more meaning than in anything secular.

There is no real god

davedanon

weisses wrote: »

There is no real god

I decided not to go there with him, because as much as he can't prove anything, deity-wise, neither can I\you, really. At least, not when they have FAITH as their hole card. Plus the sky-fairy brigade tend to get awfully huffy when their mad beliefs are questioned. And as religion is the one mad belief that is state-and-society sanctioned, I find it's just not worth the bother. When he dies he won't even get to realise his mistake, anyway. As we won't get to empirically discover how right we were.

Not that we need it...

joseywhales

davedanon wrote: »

I decided not to go there with him, because as much as he can't prove anything, deity-wise, neither can I\you, really. At least, not when they have FAITH as their hole card. Plus the sky-fairy brigade tend to get awfully huffy when their mad beliefs are questioned. And as religion is the one mad belief that is state-and-society sanctioned, I find it's just not worth the bother. When he dies he won't even get to realise his mistake, anyway. As we won't get to empirically discover how right we were.

Not that we need it...

reminds me of pascal's wager

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal%27s_wager

Peregrinus

Lookit, lads. This thread is meandering enough. If God had intended you to discuss His existence here, He would not have created the Atheism and Agnosticism forum. Maybe take it outside?

Meanwhile, back at the (secular) ranch: the economic consequences of Brexit.

davedanon wrote: »

You're doing it again. I'm not saying that. YOU'RE ALLEGING I'm saying that. When you know damn well that the hit to the Uk's economy could be 10% or more. Bad faith. But, it seems it's your way.

theological wrote: »

Really, over how long a period? That number is significantly higher than what I've read people project.

Can you cite something?

So the answer is I don't know this because it seems to be a pretty big outlier.

HMG declined last January to publish its economic assessment of the oven-ready deal. They reckoned - correctly, as it turns out - that MPs would endorse it without troubling their pretty little heads about its economic consequences. And, now that MPs have endorsed it, the government sees even less need to publish information about its macroeconomic effect. What would be the point of that, you silly creature? Now run along and buy yourself a new hat or something.

However HMG did publish some modelling in 2018 on the economic impact of various Brexit scenarios, including one which is more or less the same as the oven-ready deal. If they consider that their modelling is no longer relevant or no longer accurate, they haven't SFAIK bothered to say so publicly.

If that modelling is still relevant, it suggests that the long-term effect of the oven-ready deal will be a hit to GDP of 6.7% (as against a no-deal Brexit hit of 9.3%).

(Note: this does not mean that UK GDP is projected to fall by 6.7%. It means that UK GDP is projected to be 6.7% lower than it would have been, had the UK remained in the EU.)

Is the government's 2018 modelling still relevant? As noted, the government ain't saying, but other modelling suggests that yes, it is. Independent modelling of the oven-ready deal in October 2019 projects a GDP hit of 6.4% (as opposed to 8.1% for a no-deal Brexit). This is slightly less of a hit than the government's own modelling from the previous year, but the difference is probably within the margin of error, and in any event would be partly accounted for by the fact that some of the economic impact of Brexit projected in November 2018 would have already accrued by the time the September 2019 was produced. SFAIK the government hasn't commented on the newer modelling; they are disciplined in their adherence to the policy that, the less said about the economic consequences of the oven-ready plan, the better.

All of this, of course, predates the Covid-19 pandemic and its expected economic hit. Early on in the crisis some Brexiters could be heard expressing the view that, from a Brexity point of view, this was a blessing; the economic impact of Brexit would not be noticed because it would be eclipsed by the much bigger economic impact of Covid.

You don't hear so much of that nowadays. Common sense suggests that two adverse economic events happening at the same time will compound one another, leading to an especially torrid time for the UK. But the line that it's all due to Covid won't wash; the direct impact of new trade barriers on UK importers and exporters will be pretty plain to see. Not even the slow-witted will buy the line that those barriers are an unfortunate but inevitable consequence of the pandemic, and only the most loyal and self-sacrificing of the Brexit fanboys will be prepared to humiliate themselves by advocating the view that they are.

Tokyo

Mod: Not sure why we are dragging theological debate into this, but it's dragging the thread off topic.

davedanon

We digress. Back on topic now, boss.

RobMc59

davedanon wrote: »

We digress. Back on topic now, boss.

Yes,back on topic,you want Britain to piss off but you're obsessed with Britain-was'nt that the gist of it?
Edit:not you personally!

davedanon

RobMc59 wrote: »

Yes,back on topic,you want Britain to piss off but you're obsessed with Britain-was'nt that the gist of it?
Edit:not you personally!

We aren't so obsessed that we are cheerleading for a foreign country to leave our common trading bloc and by implication act against the interests of our own country.

ambro25

RobMc59 wrote: »

Yes,back on topic,you want Britain to piss off but you're obsessed with Britain-was'nt that the gist of it?
Edit:not you personally!

Not really.

The gist of it (it = your dichotomy above) may still be best explained by the slow car crash analogy: it's horrifying for the poor souls trapped in the wreck and you want it to end quick for their sake...but it's so fascinating to observe that you can't not look at it unfolding ever second of every day.

davedanon

Chris Grey addresses the latest treachery: the concerted attempt to put renegotiation or maybe just repudiation of the WA on the agenda.

https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2020/07/brexit-gets-more-real-brexiters-get.html

trashcan

ambro25 wrote: »

Not really.

The gist of it (it = your dichotomy above) may still be best explained by the slow car crash analogy: it's horrifying for the poor souls trapped in the wreck and you want it to end quick for their sake...but it's so fascinating to observe that you can't not look at it unfolding ever second of every day.

To extend the metaphor, if I may, it's they themselves who chose to drive the car headlong into the upcoming train.

landofthetree

Ireland will be net contributor to EU recovery fund - Martin

https://www.rte.ie/news/europe/2020/0718/1154061-eu-meeting/

They are mad to leave. They should be like us. Handing over money to other countries so that can take business off us.

Nate--IRL--

landofthetree wrote: »

Ireland will be net contributor to EU recovery fund - Martin

https://www.rte.ie/news/europe/2020/0718/1154061-eu-meeting/

They are mad to leave. They should be like us. Handing over money to other countries so that can do business with us.

Short sighted opinion.

Nate

Seth Brundle

landofthetree wrote: »

Ireland will be net contributor to EU recovery fund - Martin

https://www.rte.ie/news/europe/2020/0718/1154061-eu-meeting/

They are mad to leave. They should be like us. Handing over money to other countries so that can take business off us.

Maybe think about what you're criticising before posting.
Why are we in a position to be a net contributor?
Why are not receiving more back than we put in?
Do we get anything else in return for helping out our fellow EU members?
What business are they taking off us?
Do you see no advantages to our position?

davedanon

landofthetree wrote: »

Ireland will be net contributor to EU recovery fund - Martin

https://www.rte.ie/news/europe/2020/0718/1154061-eu-meeting/

They are mad to leave. They should be like us. Handing over money to other countries so that can take business off us.

Mate, do yourself a favour. Go away, do some research. Come back when you know what you're talking about, there's a good lad.

Irish Praetorian

landofthetree wrote: »

Ireland will be net contributor to EU recovery fund - Martin

https://www.rte.ie/news/europe/2020/0718/1154061-eu-meeting/

They are mad to leave. They should be like us. Handing over money to other countries so that can take business off us.

Sorry to dog pile but this is a pet peeve of mine - there seems to be a new 'libertarian writ large' attitude abroad at the moment, where everyone who is not claiming more in government services than the amount of taxation they pay is suddenly convinced that big government spending is utterly terrible, and that they should either do away with that spending, lower taxes (or both) or they should relocate themselves to a low tax regime. This ballsy atomization seems like an affront to the old adage about a society being made great when old men plant trees they will never see fruit. Now I have no problem with people questioning how government spending is done, or the process behind disbursing state largess, but this continual assault on the mere notion of a common or public good, seems like one of the most serious diseases infecting our society these days. The ongoing 'outsourcing' of labour to save a few pennies, the 'contracting' of things like cleaning and maintenance, the continual race to shift profits around to avoid taxation, thereby increasing the burden on those few unable or unwilling to shirk such a burden. Now I wouldn't want to be a complete Luddite about these things, the market cannot just be wished away, but we might do well to think about or incentivize thinking about the long term impact of decisions, rather than continually chasing today's bottom line.

Junkyard Tom

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

this continual assault on the mere notion of a common or public good, seems like one of the most serious diseases infecting our society these days.

We see its stark manifestation in people refusing to wear masks because 'I'll be okay' and 'I have a right to not wear one'. My freedom from having to wear a mask trumps your freedom from getting infected by me.

These are the type of people who had to be told to close their blinds during the Blitz in London, the types who have to told not to smoke in a petrol station, the types who have to be told not to drive on bald tyres, the embodiment of the limits of selfish individualism.

I don't think it's a coincidence that England and the US are two of the worst hit countries on the planet.

landofthetree

davedanon wrote: »

Mate, do yourself a favour. Go away, do some research. Come back when you know what you're talking about, there's a good lad.

A national debt of 200billion+

A deficit of 23-30billion for 2020.

Now we have to pay into a fund to aid other countries.

Donald Trump

landofthetree wrote: »

A national debt of 200billion+

A deficit of 23-30billion for 2020.

Now we have to pay into a fund to aid other countries.

Yes.


You are part of a club. It is better for everyone in that club that all its members are functioning and in good health. Sometimes you have to help each other in order to help yourself.


Unfortunately there are plenty of people who can't see past the nose on their face, and they would cut that nose off to spite their face.

landofthetree

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Maybe think about what you're criticising before posting.
Why are we in a position to be a net contributor?
Why are not receiving more back than we put in?
Do we get anything else in return for helping out our fellow EU members?
What business are they taking off us?
Do you see no advantages to our position?

Mainly due to to Leprechaun economics.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leprechaun_economics

Seth Brundle

landofthetree wrote: »

A national debt of 200billion+

A deficit of 23-30billion for 2020.

Now we have to pay into a fund to aid other countries.

Let me guess: you're an Irexit supporter?

banie01

The release of the Russia report, the questions of interference raised by the Intelligence committee along with the lack of any meaningful response by the UK Govt raise serious questions regarding the validity of the results in every UK electoral campaign since 2014.

That the report claims that the UK Govt has actively avoided looking for evidence, despite the involvement of Banks and others in vote leave is quite shocking.
The synergy of the UK Financial services sector, The Tory party and Russian oligarchs and influence peddling is something that needs to be accounted for IMO.

Leroy42

landofthetree wrote: »

A national debt of 200billion+

A deficit of 23-30billion for 2020.

Now we have to pay into a fund to aid other countries.

Do you understand where our economy is driven from? We are an export lead economy, meaning that we need other countries to be doing well so that we can do well. If the UK continues to crash as it is is is actually bad for us. Similarly, if the likes of Spain and Italy continue to flatline due to the effects on C19 and the impacts on their economies then we have less places which to sell to.

So getting a fund to help all countries within the EU27 makes perfect sense. We end up paying into the fund because we are relatively better off than others.

Conversely, we will get more of Brexit bail out and investment due to us being more relatively impact than say, Poland.

theological

banie01 wrote: »

The release of the Russia report, the questions of interference raised by the Intelligence committee along with the lack of any meaningful response by the UK Govt raise serious questions regarding the validity of the results in every UK electoral campaign since 2014.

That the report claims that the UK Govt has actively avoided looking for evidence, despite the involvement of Banks and others in vote leave is quite shocking.
The synergy of the UK Financial services sector, The Tory party and Russian oligarchs and influence peddling is something that needs to be accounted for IMO.

Only if you have the patronising and probably arrogant assumption that the British public can't think for themselves or make their own decisions.

Leroy42

theological wrote: »

Only if you have the patronising and probably arrogant assumption that the British public can't think for themselves or make their own decisions.

It isn't about whether they can make their own decisions, it is about what information they are basing those decisions on.