Epsom Derby 2019

Andrew00 · 01-06-2019 4:20pm

Why does Brian gleeson keep staring down the camera

madmoose · 01-06-2019 4:21pm

Andrew00 wrote: »

Why does Brian gleeson keep staring down the camera

He’s one annoying man.

WicklowBrave · 01-06-2019 4:24pm

Some unreal names on these nags it has to be said.

BorneTobyWilde · 01-06-2019 4:26pm

Sovereign 66-1 ew for me

This has staying ability to challenge.

SonOfGoat · 01-06-2019 4:29pm

The wait is over finally. Good luck to everyone in their selections. The arse will be out of my trousers if Sir dragonet wins. Layed for the win and also the place. Had a small few bob on Telecaster. Not a great fan of murphy but shur who knows.

Andrew00 · 01-06-2019 4:38pm

Hon the dyck

Angliru · 01-06-2019 4:38pm

F*cking written in the stars Van Dyck/Van Dijk :pac:

PhuckHugh22 · 01-06-2019 4:39pm

Hon the Dyck

WicklowBrave · 01-06-2019 4:41pm

WicklowBrave wrote: »

The Dyke and Madhmoon. C’mooon.

Let’s gooooo

Mostly Harmless · 01-06-2019 4:44pm

WicklowBrave wrote: »

Let’s gooooo

Good darts

Mgoraf · 01-06-2019 4:46pm

Would really fancy Japan for the Irish derby on the back of that run

Andrew00 · 01-06-2019 4:46pm

Can't wait to back Madhmoon wherever he goes next time

Mostly Harmless · 01-06-2019 4:47pm

Mgoraf wrote: »

Would really fancy Japan for the Irish derby on the back of that run

Not sure, looks a bit slow, would like him in Leger but given amount of staying types Coolmore have this year be hard to know what gets aimed at it

IAMAMORON · 01-06-2019 4:51pm

Andrew00 wrote: »

Can't wait to back Madhmoon wherever he goes next time

He ran brilliant. I am genuinely shocked by the run, I didn't think he would get the trip at all. Chris Hayes looks gutted.

I would go to Sandown for the Eclipse with him.

razorhead · 01-06-2019 4:55pm

WicklowBrave wrote: »

The Dyke and Madhmoon. C’mooon.

Nice forecast

Andrew00 · 01-06-2019 4:58pm

Madhmoon over 1m2f in the Eclipse would be great

tryfix · 01-06-2019 5:05pm

A smashing piece of entertainment, the winner ( looked like he could tighten up again ) and Broome impressed me most. 2yo group form to the fore today and John Gosden had TDH sitting at home, the twit.

TheMilkyPirate · 01-06-2019 5:21pm

readysetgo wrote: »

99/1 double on Van Dyck and anytime goalscorer Van Dijk.
Sometimes the stars align... €10 that I have to throw on my faith in fate.

Sound for this I never even noticed it. Threw a tenner on it and have half the place here on it as well.

Van dijk header 90th minute I'll be in the nude

TheMilkyPirate · 01-06-2019 5:28pm

Watching the race again, Madhmoon traveled better than anything into the race he'll be a serious bet at Sandown

Angliru · 01-06-2019 6:15pm

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Sound for this I never even noticed it. Threw a tenner on it and have half the place here on it as well.

Van dijk header 90th minute I'll be in the nude

@AftertimeAnsell

tryfix · 01-06-2019 6:27pm

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Watching the race again, Madhmoon traveled better than anything into the race he'll be a serious bet at Sandown

Been trying to work out what it all means, the form, and it's pretty dire. The winner ran to about OR 117-118, the next 3 were within 3/4L of the winner putting them on OR 115-116. That's probably officially the worst Derby form of the modern era. Trainers of the older horses won't be afraid to take on this bunch.

A bit of juice in the ground at the Curragh should sort out the pecking order between this bunch. Would like to see Sir Dragonet again with a bit of give in the ground.

Mostly Harmless · 01-06-2019 6:41pm

My general conclusion would be that they're all relatively average. Madhmoon could come into his own over 10f but it's not a vintage crop of 3yos on available evidence.

TheMilkyPirate · 01-06-2019 7:49pm

Angliru wrote: »

@AftertimeAnsell

It's a tenner mate.. **** me like.

Angliru · 01-06-2019 7:54pm

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

It's a tenner mate.. **** me like.

Enough for you to still aftertime though...

TheMilkyPirate · 01-06-2019 8:30pm

Angliru wrote: »

Enough for you to still aftertime though...

Couldn't give a **** tbh

Francie Barrett · 01-06-2019 8:42pm

When reading through the form and breeding today, if there were two horses that I thought were place lays, the two were Sir Dragonet and Madhmoon. For Madhmoon to come within a half length of winning the Derby was extraordinary. When stepped back in trip, surely Madhmoon is a serious, serious player.

Francie Barrett · 01-06-2019 8:48pm

Francie Barrett wrote: »

When reading through the form and breeding today, if there were two horses that I thought were place lays, the two were Sir Dragonet and Madhmoon. For Madhmoon to come within a half length of winning the Derby was extraordinary. When stepped back in trip, surely Madhmoon is a serious, serious player.

Here's some anti-after-timing in case anyone gets angst. Here's what I wrote about the winner to a friend.

Anthony Van Dyck - Interesting contender. The youngest horse in the race by far, born May 19th. Not only the youngest horse in the race, but also the one with the most runs under its belt (8). Having a lot of runs previously is a negative statistically. Recent decent form for its Derby trial puts it at odds with breeding for me (surely having Exceed and Excel on the damsire side disqualifies it from ever winning a Derby?). Just too many question marks on this one for me.

Kauto · 01-06-2019 10:22pm

Though Broome was given a stinking ride. If he held onto him later he would nearly have won. Made a big move as the race was hitting up.

Always Tired · 01-06-2019 10:31pm

tryfix wrote: »

A smashing piece of entertainment, the winner ( looked like he could tighten up again ) and Broome impressed me most. 2yo group form to the fore today and John Gosden had TDH sitting at home, the twit.

Too Darn Hot had no chance of winning this he's no stamina

tryfix · 01-06-2019 11:15pm

Always Tired wrote: »

Too Darn Hot had no chance of winning this he's no stamina

That'd be the same TDH that kept on and finished 4L clear of Japan and co in the Dante despite his trainer John Gosden stating that he was only 85% fit that day. The same TDH that got outpaced in his 2yo races before eating up the fields as stamina came into play.

The same TDH who's a full brother to last year's St Leger 2nd Lah Ti Dar, the same TDH whose mother Dar Re Mi was an Arc standard 12f Gp1 winner by the noted stamina influence Singspiel out of the top class mare Darara a 12f G1 Prix Vermeille winner by the noted stamina influence Topville.

The same TDH who has a Dosage Index of 0.75, that TDH.

Beware of trainer BS, like listen, he has so much speed, etc etc.

madmoose · 01-06-2019 11:24pm

tryfix wrote: »

That'd be the same TDH that kept on and finished 4L clear of Japan and co in the Dante despite his trainer John Gosden stating that he was only 85% fit that day. The same TDH that got outpaced in his 2yo races before eating up the fields as stamina came into play.

The same TDH who's a full brother to last year's St Leger 2nd Lah Ti Dar, the same TDH whose mother Dar Re Mi was an Arc standard 12f Gp1 winner by the noted stamina influence Singspiel out of the top class mare Darara a 12f G1 Prix Vermeille winner by the noted stamina influence Topville.

The same TDH who has a Dosage Index of 0.75, that TDH.

Beware of trainer BS, like listen, he has so much speed, etc etc.

He looked fast though over 10f that day at York, wouldn’t of won today.

tryfix · 01-06-2019 11:58pm

madmoose wrote: »

He looked fast though over 10f that day at York, wouldn’t of won today.

Showing a turn of foot and staying on when supposedly 85% fit isn't not staying. He sure as hell didn't look overly fast in the Irish 2,000 Guineas when staying on.

He's bred to be a 12f horse despite Gosden's protestations about his lack of stamina and none of his races have ( not at peak in Dante ) shown the truth of any doubts about his stamina.

In the Dante beat Derby 3rd 4L, beat Derby winner by 4L in Dewhurst etc.

madmoose · 02-06-2019 12:06am

tryfix wrote: »

Showing a turn of foot and staying on when supposedly 85% fit isn't not staying. He sure as hello didn't look overly fast in the Irish 2,000 Guineas when staying on.

He's bred to be a 12f horse despite Gosden's protestations about his lack of stamina and none of his races have ( not at peak in Dante ) shown the truth of any doubts about his stamina.

In the Dante beat Derby 3rd 4L, beat Derby winner by 4L in Dewhurst etc.

Maybe his best trip is 10f and i wonder if he goes the Eclipse? I think skipping Ascot could be a benefit.

tryfix · 02-06-2019 12:39am

madmoose wrote: »

Maybe his best trip is 10f and i wonder if he goes the Eclipse? I think skipping Ascot could be a benefit.

Wherever he goes I hope he bounces back to near his 2yo form. He might even thrive at Ascot track over the mile, the English Champion stakes over 10f in October on easier ground would seem to be a good target for him if he comes up short again over a mile. For some reason those Dubawis seem to struggle a bit at this time of year.

famagusta · 02-06-2019 1:44am

Kauto wrote:

Though Broome was given a stinking ride. If he held onto him later he would nearly have won. Made a big move as the race was hitting up.

Looking back at it again, with the overhead camera on itv, a great addition, I think Broome is the one to take out of the race.

Always Tired · 02-06-2019 2:56am

madmoose wrote: »

Maybe his best trip is 10f and i wonder if he goes the Eclipse? I think skipping Ascot could be a benefit.

10f is his trip. You'll never see him over 1m4f again.

readysetgo · 02-06-2019 1:06pm

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Sound for this I never even noticed it. Threw a tenner on it and have half the place here on it as well.

Van dijk header 90th minute I'll be in the nude

pity it didnt work out. for a crap game it was worth the tenner for the excitement and hope at every liverpool corner.
Virgil a thoroughbred horse of a man. The FAI could do worse for the future of irish football than Ryanair him over here and put him to stud.

BumperD · 02-06-2019 1:53pm

5 horses finished within a length at finish probably a substandard renewal though the winner finished well . No hard luck stories yesterday

Slattsy · 02-06-2019 2:11pm

I thought Japan the one to take out of it. I know I keep banging on about him.

But he drifted from 10s to 20s on the day. That's massive. Not an ounce of confidence behind him. They clearly thought he needed the run after a rushed preparation. He's a serious horse.

coolshannagh28 · 02-06-2019 2:30pm

Slattsy wrote: »

I thought Japan the one to take out of it. I know I keep banging on about him.

But he drifted from 10s to 20s on the day. That's massive. Not an ounce of confidence behind him. They clearly thought he needed the run after a rushed preparation. He's a serious horse.

Have to agree with that , he was finishing well and looked like he needed a run , was very highly rated early on and must have had a setback.

WicklowBrave · 02-06-2019 3:12pm

I thought AvD hated the track so to still win was a serious performance. The 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th should all have cause for optimism aswell, however, I wouldn’t be suprised if none of them won an open age Group I between em this season.

Slattsy · 02-06-2019 3:15pm

I'm absolutely pissed by the way. Mon Liverpool!

The Tetrarch · 02-06-2019 3:25pm

The Tetrarch wrote: »

The Racing Post Predictor says
1. Anthony Van Dyck 7/1
2. Sir Dragonet 5/2
3. Line Of Duty 25/1

:pac:

Not the best week for me, a treble.
I backed the last in the Oaks and the last in the Derby.
Have an infection raging that I picked up at a hospital procedure last Monday.
I am a Spurs fan for over 50 years.

The going at Epsom should have been described as firm (or possibly faster) based on race times.
There was more chance of the clerk of the course streaking down the straight than taking the word "good" out of the Derby going description.

In Nick Mordin's book Winning Without Thinking, he compared going descriptions to races times, comparing the times to standard time for the distance.
Firm was reported 0.8% but actual firm based on times was ten times that, or 8%. Hard was recorded 0%.
Mordin used a second a mile as the guide. Races all run about a second a mile slower than standard it was good/soft, races run two seconds a mile slower it was soft.

I think there was a following breeze down the straight at Epsom.
The commentator mentioned that a filly won a race before the Derby 0.03 outside record time.
That suggests to me that the Derby time was slow for the conditions, and ended in a sprint.

The 13 Derby runners had run 63 times before the race.
I always calculate the seconds per furlong for each race (adjusting extra yards e.g. 7f 44y is 7+44/220 = 7.2f, and for beaten lengths, 5 lengths a second).
These were the fastest pre-race at 7f, 8f, 10f, 10.2f.
No adjustment for going. I just want to know who ran the fastest.

Name ....................... Furlongs ... Seconds/fur
Anthony Van Dyck (1) ..... 7.00 ....... 12.05
Anthony Van Dyck (1) ..... 7.00 ....... 12.15
Anthony Van Dyck (1) ..... 7.00 ....... 12.16
Bangkok (12) ................. 7.00 ...... 12.19
Humanitarian (7)............. 8.00 ...... 12.19
Madhmoon (2) ............... 8.00 ...... 12.22
Bangkok (12) ................. 8.00 ...... 12.23
Circus Maximus (6) .......... 8.00 ...... 12.24
Circus Maximus (6) .......... 8.00 ...... 12.24
Telecaster (13) .............. 10.00 ..... 12.69
Norway (8) .................... 10.00 ..... 12.79
Hiroshima (11) ................ 10.00 ..... 12.83
Broome (4) .................... 10.00 ...... 12.92
Bangkok (12) ................. 10.20 ...... 12.65
Telecaster (13) .............. 10.20 ...... 12.67
Telecaster (13) .............. 10.25 ...... 12.70

tryfix · 04-06-2019 8:26am

Hope that Japan fulfils the promise he showed in the Derby but it's probable that 10f will see him at his best. His full Sister ( Secret Gesture ) and Brother ( Sir Isaac Newton ) were best at 10f which would point him towards races like the Eclipse.

On the plus side for him at 12f, he has already stayed 12f in the Derby and he has posted a 118 rpr there which makes him better already than his siblings with 112 rpr for Secret Gesture and 117 rpr for Sir Isaac Newton at their best trip of 10f.

Nearly everything by Galileo stays, even the brilliant miler Rip Van Winkle stayed 12f at Epsom where he was a fine 2L 4th to Sea The Stars but he blossomed when brought back in trip.

Mostly Harmless · 04-06-2019 8:41am

Be amazed if Japan drops back in trip myself, looks very much a stayer and not blessed with pace (I have been amazed before and will be amazed again)

RivetingRoger · 04-06-2019 9:22am

RivetingRoger wrote: »

AVD and Madhmoon done
7/1 and 12/1
So now ye know who to swerve lads!!

@slattsy !!!!!

GET IN THERE!
First and Second.....Silence Slattsy....SILENCE

:)

tryfix · 04-06-2019 9:51am

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Be amazed if Japan drops back in trip myself, looks very much a stayer and not blessed with pace (I have been amazed before and will be amazed again)

True, maybe the other pair are the black sheep of the family and he's the normal one ( they have a 12f+ pedigree on Dosage anyway ). They don't come much odder than Sir Isaac Newton. :pac:

The rematch at the Curragh will be great craic. Ryan back on board AVD and everyone wondering whose turn it will be on the day.

PhuckHugh22 · 04-06-2019 10:22am

PhuckHugh22 wrote: »

Lads stop worrying yer minds. AVD wins this. He was all the rage in the antepost last year and has only enhanced his claims since then. Throw out the Breeders cup run.
He should be favourite and id nearly say he will go off favourite.

Forgot i put up this a few weeks back.

Easy Game!! :cool:

Slattsy · 04-06-2019 10:46am

RivetingRoger wrote: »

@slattsy !!!!!

GET IN THERE!
First and Second.....Silence Slattsy....SILENCE

:)

Giddy up!

Slattsy · 04-06-2019 10:47am

RivetingRoger wrote: »

@slattsy !!!!!

GET IN THERE!
First and Second.....Silence Slattsy....SILENCE

:)

Giddy up!

Epsom Derby 2019

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