Property Market 2020

Hubertj · 27-04-2020 5:21pm

bubblypop wrote: »

But cant afford to buy?
Anyway, the housing crisis in Ireland involves homeless people.
Families in hotels etc
It's a social housing crisis.
People who are on lists for social houses are not going to start buying private houses.

You’re incorrect. There is a shortage of accommodation to support new home/household formation. That covers all sectors of the population

0gac3yjefb5sv7 · 27-04-2020 5:27pm

At some point, people have to buy. There's rarely an ideal property on the market, at the perfect time. Maybe for a handful at most. Buy when you can afford it and see yourself living there for at least 5-10 years. You'd drive yourself nuts on this thread trying to get everything right and end up with nothing.

27-04-2020 5:58pm

Hubertj wrote: »

You’re incorrect. There is a shortage of accommodation to support new home/household formation. That covers all sectors of the population

where is the proof of this though? and where are these new home/household formations coming from?

thomas 123 · 27-04-2020 6:04pm

bubblypop wrote: »

But cant afford to buy?
Anyway, the housing crisis in Ireland involves homeless people.
Families in hotels etc
It's a social housing crisis.
People who are on lists for social houses are not going to start buying private houses.

Not true at all.

Of all houses in new estates 10% are assigned to social housing.

Landlords are holding onto properties they would have sold otherwise to cash in on lucrative rents.

Just those two things drive up the price of a home for anyone looking to buy.

Not to mention because of supply the price of land has increased drastically.

For a small house in the country I’ll be looking at 300k if I’m lucky.

SozBbz · 27-04-2020 6:06pm

bubblypop wrote: »

where is the proof of this though? and where are these new home/household formations coming from?

???

We've been doing this little thing called a census for a while now, it tells us about demographics and such. It means we know how many people of a certain age are likely to want to set up their own household.

Covid 19 aside, people are living longer and single person households are more common. And we've a fair few young people wanting somewhere to live thats not with their parents.

hometruths · 27-04-2020 6:14pm

Have seen very little comment about what the impact of the PPR will have, if any. I think the price transparency we have now, that we didn’t have in 08/09, will be significant.

So there is feck all supply because anybody who doesn’t have to sell a house will just wait it out and see what happens.

And there is feck all demand because anybody who doesn’T have to buy, or can no longer afford to, will just wait it out and see what happens.

For most people, waiting and seeing will consist of keeping a close eye on post Covid19 PPR entries.

The first entries will be those who got sale agreeds over the line during lock down. Seems reasonable that a lot of these will accept a small discount to close a sale. Let’s say 5%.

The selling wait and seers, will see this 5% drop on the PPR and think, hmm, prices could drop further, or could recover, I’ll wait and see.

The buying wait and seers, will see this 5% drop on the PPR and think, hmm, prices could drop further, or could recover, I’ll wait and see.

Meanwhile the only transactions taking place are from those who have to sell for whatever reason and cash rich bottom feeders.

The sellers will see the PPR prices and adjust their asking accordingly. The bottom feeders will see the PPR prices and adjust their offers accordingly.

Now bottom feeders are not known for worrying that they will look like an idiot if their 20% below asking is refused. If it is refused, they’ll just, you guessed it, wait and see what happens.

So the only transactions are taking place between forced sellers and bottom feeders at whatever they can agree, let’s say 10% below asking,

PPR is now showing prices nearly 15% down from pre Covid19 asking prices.

Meanwhile media is going on about job losses, recession, falling rents and falling prices, where will it all end. There will be global crashes in other frothy property markets, because every country will be in recession and because other countries do repossess properties, this will feed into the fear that now is not the time to buy or sell property.

So the only transactions that appear on the PPR are those from forced sellers and bottom feeders.

And on and on it goes until at some point the majority of would be buyers decide that prices have reached such a point that they are better off buying and will stop waiting and seeing.

I would not be so sure that a shortage in supply means a soft landing.

Hubertj · 27-04-2020 6:15pm

bubblypop wrote: »

where is the proof of this though? and where are these new home/household formations coming from?

Simple google tells you. This report summarises CSO numbers

https://www.propertyindustry.ie/Sectors/PII/PII.nsf/vPages/Publications~estimating-irelands-long-run-housing-demand---april-2019-05-04-2019/$file/Estimating+Ireland’s+long-run+housing+demand+-+April+2019+FINAL.pdf

combat14 · 27-04-2020 6:27pm

people may want to buy .... (we all want to buy!)
people may have to buy ...

but it still doesn't mean that they can afford to buy amply priced houses during a serious global recession/ depression ..
where banks are starting to row back on lending/ valuations and exemptions ..

wages are cut are or now non existent, government debt ballooning and tax rises in some shape or form potentially again on the cards

at some point ... something has to give!

awec · 27-04-2020 6:35pm

bubblypop wrote: »

But cant afford to buy?
Anyway, the housing crisis in Ireland involves homeless people.
Families in hotels etc
It's a social housing crisis.
People who are on lists for social houses are not going to start buying private houses.

This is literally what has been happening the past few years.

OttoPilot · 27-04-2020 11:50pm

Adelyn Late Sportsmanship wrote: »

At some point, people have to buy. There's rarely an ideal property on the market, at the perfect time. Maybe for a handful at most. Buy when you can afford it and see yourself living there for at least 5-10 years. You'd drive yourself nuts on this thread trying to get everything right and end up with nothing.

Why do people have to buy? I'm 26. It's possible my house, if I bought now, would not hold (nevermind increase) its value like my parents house has. We aren't going to have the expanding population they had to support house prices. Especially if you are not buying new.

0gac3yjefb5sv7 · 27-04-2020 11:53pm

OttoPilot wrote: »

Why do people have to buy? I'm 26. It's possible my house, if I bought now, would not hold (nevermind increase) its value like my parents house has. We aren't going to have the expanding population they had to support house prices. Especially if you are not buying new.

Well no one has to buy. I'm talking about people in this thread who want to buy, eventually they will have to do so at some point. Any property now will be worth more in 20 years, especially in Dublin.

kevinc565 · 27-04-2020 11:55pm

OttoPilot wrote: »

Why do people have to buy? I'm 26. It's possible my house, if I bought now, would not hold (nevermind increase) its value like my parents house has. We aren't going to have the expanding population they had to support house prices. Especially if you are not buying new.

rent is dead money, in general. for temp workers or a falling market perhaps.

Hulk Hands · 28-04-2020 1:19am

OttoPilot wrote: »

Why do people have to buy? I'm 26. It's possible my house, if I bought now, would not hold (nevermind increase) its value like my parents house has. We aren't going to have the expanding population they had to support house prices. Especially if you are not buying new.

Why wouldn't we have the expanding population? Have you seen project 2040? We're planning for an extra million in population by then. We're open to immigration as a society and Ireland will likely become more desirable to live in future, especially with climate concerns worldwide. While property prices may not stay high for other reasons (covid, normal downturns, our low density), it won't be for population reasons.

Limpy · 28-04-2020 1:38am

The gov/housing department purchased 3 houses in my estate last year. 2 are occupied now, they put plenty of money into the 3rd one. Its been idle for 4 month's.

Its was the first time in awhile I heard of housing dept buying houses, I wonder how many and how much they spent (Nationaly). Two were auctions AFAIK.

James 007 · 28-04-2020 4:08am

Limpy wrote: »

The gov/housing department purchased 3 houses in my estate last year. 2 are occupied now, they put plenty of money into the 3rd one. Its been idle for 4 month's.

Its was the first time in awhile I heard of housing dept buying houses, I wonder how many and how much they spent (Nationaly). Two were auctions AFAIK.

What value do you believe your house is worth, or if you don't know do a quick check online

Villa05 · 28-04-2020 5:52am

The Future of Work

Today with Sean O Rourke discuss and expand many of the points raised here in relation to Work and Education from home

ittakestwo · 28-04-2020 8:28am

Adelyn Late Sportsmanship wrote: »

Well no one has to buy. I'm talking about people in this thread who want to buy, eventually they will have to do so at some point. Any property now will be worth more in 20 years, especially in Dublin.

How do you know that?

OttoPilot · 28-04-2020 9:51am

Adelyn Late Sportsmanship wrote: »

Well no one has to buy. I'm talking about people in this thread who want to buy, eventually they will have to do so at some point. Any property now will be worth more in 20 years, especially in Dublin.

Have pre boom peaks been reached yet, in real terms?

Hubertj · 28-04-2020 9:59am

OttoPilot wrote: »

Have pre boom peaks been reached yet, in real terms?

what does realt terms mean? I think 1 of the recent reports said something like prices were still 17% below 2007 rates. I can't remember if that was for nationwide or Dublin prices etc...

ittakestwo · 28-04-2020 10:21am

Hubertj wrote: »

what does realt terms mean? I think 1 of the recent reports said something like prices were still 17% below 2007 rates. I can't remember if that was for nationwide or Dublin prices etc...

In real terms means when adjusted for inflation.

Pivot Eoin · 28-04-2020 10:30am

Interesting Web Visitor Stats of Mortgages.ie, DAFT.ie, MyHome.ie and Bonkers.ie over last few months:

Been slated a little here before for using web stats to back up a point, but there is a common 15-20% drop off for March usages and Sometimes 30% Year on Year Drop off. Be interesting to see if April is the same.

With a 15-20% decrease in people looking, coupled with a probable 20-30% increase in Mortgage Rejections, you have to imagine you will see a drop in competition for houses in certain sectors (Prob the affordable fixer upper 3 bed market).

I still think the good properties, turn-key 3/4 beds will hold the majority of their value though, which is the market I'm in.

sarahzxe · 28-04-2020 10:32am

Hey looking for advice. Myself and husband have mortgage approval both incomes not affected thankfully. We viewed a house we both love and had an offer on it accepted for 325k.
However we decided to hold off as it was the week lockdown started. The house has actually been on market since last August and unoccupied originally up for 345k but seller has reduced it gradually this year.
We are wondering how to approach this and how much to negotiate off? We are keen to buy this year as paying high rent and husband nearly 35. House is outside of Dublin. Thanks all.

BillyBiggs · 28-04-2020 10:44am

sarahzxe wrote: »

Hey looking for advice. Myself and husband have mortgage approval both incomes not affected thankfully. We viewed a house we both love and had an offer on it accepted for 325k.
However we decided to hold off as it was the week lockdown started. The house has actually been on market since last August and unoccupied originally up for 345k but seller has reduced it gradually this year.
We are wondering how to approach this and how much to negotiate off? We are keen to buy this year as paying high rent and husband nearly 35. House is outside of Dublin. Thanks all.

I’d offer them 300k and if they don’t take it walk away.

snotboogie · 28-04-2020 10:56am

sarahzxe wrote: »

Hey looking for advice. Myself and husband have mortgage approval both incomes not affected thankfully. We viewed a house we both love and had an offer on it accepted for 325k.
However we decided to hold off as it was the week lockdown started. The house has actually been on market since last August and unoccupied originally up for 345k but seller has reduced it gradually this year.
We are wondering how to approach this and how much to negotiate off? We are keen to buy this year as paying high rent and husband nearly 35. House is outside of Dublin. Thanks all.

32 posts over 10 years and every single one of them asking for something. Why not contribute to the forum once in a while?

BluePlanet · 28-04-2020 11:05am

snotboogie wrote: »

32 posts over 10 years and every single one of them asking for something. Why not contribute to the forum once in a while?

What does that contribute?
This is a public forum, not a meet snotboogie's standards forum.

fliball123 · 28-04-2020 11:07am

Pivot Eoin wrote: »

Interesting Web Visitor Stats of Mortgages.ie, DAFT.ie, MyHome.ie and Bonkers.ie over last few months:

Been slated a little here before for using web stats to back up a point, but there is a common 15-20% drop off for March usages and Sometimes 30% Year on Year Drop off. Be interesting to see if April is the same.

With a 15-20% decrease in people looking, coupled with a probable 20-30% increase in Mortgage Rejections, you have to imagine you will see a drop in competition for houses in certain sectors (Prob the affordable fixer upper 3 bed market).

I still think the good properties, turn-key 3/4 beds will hold the majority of their value though, which is the market I'm in.

Well there is not exactly a great selection currently up there at the moment so this is to be expected new properties coming in are not exactly great I have been keeping an eye on them. But if you want to gauge the Irish love affair with property count how many posts are on this thread. Then count how many threads are related to properties on boards and then count how many property websites there are in relation to the price of property. I don't think google's analytical engine takes this into consideration. Be under no illusion the Irish are mad for property for some reason

mcbert · 28-04-2020 11:07am

snotboogie wrote: »

32 posts over 10 years and every single one of them asking for something. Why not contribute to the forum once in a while?

Bit harsh. So they dont use the site much. I dont see the problem.Thats how you drive away users

awec · 28-04-2020 11:09am

sarahzxe wrote: »

Hey looking for advice. Myself and husband have mortgage approval both incomes not affected thankfully. We viewed a house we both love and had an offer on it accepted for 325k.
However we decided to hold off as it was the week lockdown started. The house has actually been on market since last August and unoccupied originally up for 345k but seller has reduced it gradually this year.
We are wondering how to approach this and how much to negotiate off? We are keen to buy this year as paying high rent and husband nearly 35. House is outside of Dublin. Thanks all.

If you got it for 300 would you be happy with that? Offer it and see how it goes. Might end up meeting in the middle.

combat14 · 28-04-2020 12:12pm

offer 270-275k .. end up at 300k
Still only 10% drop at that given the chaos at the moment and it hasn't sold since last august .. I am seeing quite a few nice properties in my estate that havent sold since last summer either ....

Paulownia · 28-04-2020 12:15pm

The other property is in rural Laois and worth about 70k and too far away to commute

Get Real · 28-04-2020 12:24pm

sarahzxe wrote: »

Hey looking for advice. Myself and husband have mortgage approval both incomes not affected thankfully. We viewed a house we both love and had an offer on it accepted for 325k.
However we decided to hold off as it was the week lockdown started. The house has actually been on market since last August and unoccupied originally up for 345k but seller has reduced it gradually this year.
We are wondering how to approach this and how much to negotiate off? We are keen to buy this year as paying high rent and husband nearly 35. House is outside of Dublin. Thanks all.

I wouldn't be too concerned if in your position. Try for lower if you want, it might pay off. But if there's no budge on their part, it's to be your family home.

Say you walk away, another year of high rent, and uncertainty, or who knows if banks will be lending in a years' time?

If you can afford the repayments, it's cheaper than renting, and provides certainty for the next 40years, what does it matter to you that in 2 years' time on paper it's worth 295k. In 30 years time it'll be worth more than you paid for it, and you'll own it.

Short term fluctuations, up or down, don't matter a bit, as you're not buying it to make money, you're buying it to live in.

28-04-2020 12:29pm

Paulownia wrote: »

My mother died recently and she left me the house we live in and I’ll have to pay tax on the value when she died which seems very unfair because I have another house

Paulownia wrote: »

The other property is in rural Laois and worth about 70k and too far away to commute

Just to add some context........

Rock77 · 28-04-2020 12:48pm

snotboogie wrote: »

32 posts over 10 years and every single one of them asking for something. Why not contribute to the forum once in a while?

Of all the posts I’ve read on Boards, this is the worst.....

Marius34 · 28-04-2020 12:53pm

sarahzxe wrote: »

Hey looking for advice. Myself and husband have mortgage approval both incomes not affected thankfully. We viewed a house we both love and had an offer on it accepted for 325k.
However we decided to hold off as it was the week lockdown started. The house has actually been on market since last August and unoccupied originally up for 345k but seller has reduced it gradually this year.
We are wondering how to approach this and how much to negotiate off? We are keen to buy this year as paying high rent and husband nearly 35. House is outside of Dublin. Thanks all.

Was offer accepted in March or before? That could make a different to the value expected on the house. If it's before Match it would be reasonable to offer for 300K, and hope to get for 310K-315K. If it was during March, seller may have already accounted for downturn, and probably would not be willing to slice it more, although still try reduce the offer to some extent would still make sense.

KaiserSochez · 28-04-2020 1:49pm

snotboogie wrote: »

32 posts over 10 years and every single one of them asking for something. Why not contribute to the forum once in a while?

Lockdown clearly getting to ya....you should go for a walk instead of “contributing” such a ridiculous response.

GreeBo · 28-04-2020 5:51pm

bubblypop wrote: »

In a recession, where does demand come from?

A recession doesnt change the fact that people need somewhere to live.

Padre_Pio · 28-04-2020 5:54pm

GreeBo wrote: »

A recession doesnt change the fact that people need somewhere to live.

It changes their ability to buy.

I'm sure thousands would love to go on holidays, but there's zero demand right now.

combat14 · 28-04-2020 7:13pm

GreeBo wrote: »

A recession doesnt change the fact that people need somewhere to live.

Exactly and that's why there were almost 10,000 homeless before this recession started and why tens of thousands had to emigrate in the last recession as they couldn't pay rent, buy or even afford to live at home with mammy and daddy.

Recessions fundamentally affect people's income, taxes and a whole host of other variables.. including ..people's ability to pay and ... ultimately ... house prices and rents naturally as we saw all to well in the recent past.

Just because we at present might think we have the ability to pay that's not necessarily the case for the majority of people during a recession whether they want to buy/rent or not.

Zenify · 28-04-2020 7:17pm

GreeBo wrote: »

A recession doesnt change the fact that people need somewhere to live.

You ridicule posts on here with a lack substance towards a view of price drops. Then you come out and say something like this.

eagle eye · 28-04-2020 7:59pm

Zenify wrote:

You ridicule posts on here with a lack substance towards a view of price drops. Then you come out and say something like this.

There's nothing wrong with his statement. It's just common sense.

zweton · 28-04-2020 8:04pm

Can I assume if both of us are on covid payment we wont be entertained?

Have deposit saved and was hoping to buy june/july time. Have been approved in principle.

Padre_Pio · 28-04-2020 8:07pm

zweton wrote: »

Can I assume if both of us are on covid payment we wont be entertained?

Have deposit saved and was hoping to buy june/july time.

I think you need to be permanently employed for banks to entertain you. People on probation, temp contract and self employed usually have issues.
AIP is just so you know what you can offer when looking at houses.

zweton · 28-04-2020 8:11pm

yeah seems its changed for anyone on covid payment now so. great!

Padre_Pio · 28-04-2020 8:23pm

zweton wrote: »

yeah seems its changed for anyone on covid payment now so. great!

Sure it's always worth a call, worst they can say no.

Villa05 · 28-04-2020 8:43pm

It was the youth of the country that paid the price for the last recession.

0 hours contracts
Reduced pay in the public service regardless of whether they performed better than their older much higher paid colleagues
Work for free on internships
Temporary contracts
Ever increasing rents

This cohort are the Ftb of today, I just wonder how healthy their finances are and if their really is this pent up demand for entry level houses at current prices

When you take out the bottom rung of the ladder, everything above it falls as well

It's also notable that the government are prepping the youth of today saying that youth unemployment will rise substantially in this coming recession

It seems odd that when older folk are disadvantaged, "we are all in this together" to help get to the other side safely. Eg covid 19, health insurance pricing

When it's our sons and daughters are affected negatively like recessions, spiralling accommodation costs, employment terms and conditions, car insurance this togetherness is lost and we allow a system that pulls up the ladder for the people in it severely affecting new entrants

How long will this continue?

GreeBo · 28-04-2020 8:47pm

OttoPilot wrote: »

Why do people have to buy? I'm 26. It's possible my house, if I bought now, would not hold (nevermind increase) its value like my parents house has. We aren't going to have the expanding population they had to support house prices. Especially if you are not buying new.

Have you planned your savings, investments, pension around paying rent until the day you die?

If not, then you need to buy a house.

Steer55 · 28-04-2020 8:50pm

Villa05 wrote: »

It was the youth of the country that paid the price for the last recession.

0 hours contracts
Reduced pay in the public service regardless of whether they performed better than their older much higher paid colleagues
Work for free on internships
Temporary contracts
Ever increasing rents

This cohort are the Ftb of today, I just wonder how healthy their finances are and if their really is this pent up demand for entry level houses at current prices

When you take out the bottom rung of the ladder, everything above it falls as well

It's also notable that the government are prepping the youth of today saying that youth unemployment will rise substantially in this coming recession

It seems odd that when older folk are disadvantaged, "we are all in this together" to help get to the other side safely. Eg covid 19, health insurance pricing

When it's our sons and daughters are affected negatively like recessions, spiralling accommodation costs, employment terms and conditions, car insurance this togetherness is lost and we allow a system that pulls up the ladder for the people in it severely affecting new entrants

How long will this continue?

Yes, you right, young people now in their early thirties had it really hard in the last recession. After finally getting on their feet over the last four or five years, they are going to be dealt another blow with the coming recession. More taxes, more unemployment and little chance of emigration this time round.

combat14 · 28-04-2020 9:01pm

GreeBo wrote: »

Have you planned your savings, investments, pension around paying rent until the day you die?

If not, then you need to buy a house.

And that's the problem.. most people havent planned their finances at all.. people will be renting till the day they die .. house prices are too dear .. rents are too high to save for a deposit and in 20 years time when this generation of renters start to retire they are in for a big shock.....

because they wont be able to afford today's 2200+ dublin rents ... and it's too late to buy and something massive will have to give in this country ... I.e. the state will have to somehow pick up the pieces ...

either rents will collapse, state builds houses, emigration or massive old age homelessness

but yes unfortunately most people dont plan their finances at all let alone for paying rent when retired which they wont be able to do (unless maybe sharing with strangers at final stage of life)

Hubertj · 28-04-2020 9:17pm

Villa05 wrote: »

It was the youth of the country that paid the price for the last recession.

0 hours contracts
Reduced pay in the public service regardless of whether they performed better than their older much higher paid colleagues
Work for free on internships
Temporary contracts
Ever increasing rents

This cohort are the Ftb of today, I just wonder how healthy their finances are and if their really is this pent up demand for entry level houses at current prices

When you take out the bottom rung of the ladder, everything above it falls as well

It's also notable that the government are prepping the youth of today saying that youth unemployment will rise substantially in this coming recession

It seems odd that when older folk are disadvantaged, "we are all in this together" to help get to the other side safely. Eg covid 19, health insurance pricing

When it's our sons and daughters are affected negatively like recessions, spiralling accommodation costs, employment terms and conditions, car insurance this togetherness is lost and we allow a system that pulls up the ladder for the people in it severely affecting new entrants

How long will this continue?

You make some good points here. FG had a tough job when they took office in 2011. They did some things very very well getting the country going again.
However, they missed opportunities such as proper public sector reform instead of just cutting pay etc. No government in this country will have the balls to on the vested interests In the public service.
Regarding accommodation I believe they were starting from a low base in that there was no construction industry for a few years? Added to that FF stopped building social housing a long time ago? What could they have done better here? Is there not a shortage of tradesmen to build houses at a faster rate? Is planning a sh*t show? There seems to be objections to everything everywhere.

snoopboggybog · 28-04-2020 9:26pm

combat14 wrote: »

And that's the problem.. most people havent planned their finances at all.. people will be renting till the day they die .. house prices are too dear .. rents are too high to save for a deposit and in 20 years time when this generation of renters start to retire they are in for a big shock.....

because they wont be able to afford today's 2200+ dublin rents ... and it's too late to buy and something massive will have to give in this country ... I.e. the state will have to somehow pick up the pieces ...

either rents will collapse, state builds houses, emigration or massive old age homelessness

but yes unfortunately most people dont plan their finances at all let alone for paying rent when retired which they wont be able to do (unless maybe sharing with strangers at final stage of life)

The whole of Ireland doesn't revolve around Dublin. People can get houses but just need to commute. Its a crap situation but that's the reality of it it at the moment.

A young person is better off house sharing and saving for a mortgage that way or living at home with parents until they have a deposit saved.

You can get a house in Portlaois for well under 200K

Property Market 2020

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