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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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Hubertj

bubblypop wrote: »

But cant afford to buy?
Anyway, the housing crisis in Ireland involves homeless people.
Families in hotels etc
It's a social housing crisis.
People who are on lists for social houses are not going to start buying private houses.

You’re incorrect. There is a shortage of accommodation to support new home/household formation. That covers all sectors of the population

0gac3yjefb5sv7

At some point, people have to buy. There's rarely an ideal property on the market, at the perfect time. Maybe for a handful at most. Buy when you can afford it and see yourself living there for at least 5-10 years. You'd drive yourself nuts on this thread trying to get everything right and end up with nothing.

[Deleted User]

Hubertj wrote: »

You’re incorrect. There is a shortage of accommodation to support new home/household formation. That covers all sectors of the population

where is the proof of this though? and where are these new home/household formations coming from?

thomas 123

bubblypop wrote: »

But cant afford to buy?
Anyway, the housing crisis in Ireland involves homeless people.
Families in hotels etc
It's a social housing crisis.
People who are on lists for social houses are not going to start buying private houses.

Not true at all.

Of all houses in new estates 10% are assigned to social housing.

Landlords are holding onto properties they would have sold otherwise to cash in on lucrative rents.

Just those two things drive up the price of a home for anyone looking to buy.

Not to mention because of supply the price of land has increased drastically.

For a small house in the country I’ll be looking at 300k if I’m lucky.

SozBbz

bubblypop wrote: »

where is the proof of this though? and where are these new home/household formations coming from?

???

We've been doing this little thing called a census for a while now, it tells us about demographics and such. It means we know how many people of a certain age are likely to want to set up their own household.

Covid 19 aside, people are living longer and single person households are more common. And we've a fair few young people wanting somewhere to live thats not with their parents.

hometruths

Have seen very little comment about what the impact of the PPR will have, if any. I think the price transparency we have now, that we didn’t have in 08/09, will be significant.

So there is feck all supply because anybody who doesn’t have to sell a house will just wait it out and see what happens.

And there is feck all demand because anybody who doesn’T have to buy, or can no longer afford to, will just wait it out and see what happens.

For most people, waiting and seeing will consist of keeping a close eye on post Covid19 PPR entries.

The first entries will be those who got sale agreeds over the line during lock down. Seems reasonable that a lot of these will accept a small discount to close a sale. Let’s say 5%.

The selling wait and seers, will see this 5% drop on the PPR and think, hmm, prices could drop further, or could recover, I’ll wait and see.

The buying wait and seers, will see this 5% drop on the PPR and think, hmm, prices could drop further, or could recover, I’ll wait and see.

Meanwhile the only transactions taking place are from those who have to sell for whatever reason and cash rich bottom feeders.

The sellers will see the PPR prices and adjust their asking accordingly. The bottom feeders will see the PPR prices and adjust their offers accordingly.

Now bottom feeders are not known for worrying that they will look like an idiot if their 20% below asking is refused. If it is refused, they’ll just, you guessed it, wait and see what happens.

So the only transactions are taking place between forced sellers and bottom feeders at whatever they can agree, let’s say 10% below asking,

PPR is now showing prices nearly 15% down from pre Covid19 asking prices.

Meanwhile media is going on about job losses, recession, falling rents and falling prices, where will it all end. There will be global crashes in other frothy property markets, because every country will be in recession and because other countries do repossess properties, this will feed into the fear that now is not the time to buy or sell property.

So the only transactions that appear on the PPR are those from forced sellers and bottom feeders.

And on and on it goes until at some point the majority of would be buyers decide that prices have reached such a point that they are better off buying and will stop waiting and seeing.

I would not be so sure that a shortage in supply means a soft landing.

Hubertj

bubblypop wrote: »

where is the proof of this though? and where are these new home/household formations coming from?

Simple google tells you. This report summarises CSO numbers

https://www.propertyindustry.ie/Sectors/PII/PII.nsf/vPages/Publications~estimating-irelands-long-run-housing-demand---april-2019-05-04-2019/$file/Estimating+Ireland’s+long-run+housing+demand+-+April+2019+FINAL.pdf

combat14

people may want to buy .... (we all want to buy!)
people may have to buy ...

but it still doesn't mean that they can afford to buy amply priced houses during a serious global recession/ depression ..
where banks are starting to row back on lending/ valuations and exemptions ..

wages are cut are or now non existent, government debt ballooning and tax rises in some shape or form potentially again on the cards

at some point ... something has to give!

awec

bubblypop wrote: »

But cant afford to buy?
Anyway, the housing crisis in Ireland involves homeless people.
Families in hotels etc
It's a social housing crisis.
People who are on lists for social houses are not going to start buying private houses.

This is literally what has been happening the past few years.

OttoPilot

Adelyn Late Sportsmanship wrote: »

At some point, people have to buy. There's rarely an ideal property on the market, at the perfect time. Maybe for a handful at most. Buy when you can afford it and see yourself living there for at least 5-10 years. You'd drive yourself nuts on this thread trying to get everything right and end up with nothing.

Why do people have to buy? I'm 26. It's possible my house, if I bought now, would not hold (nevermind increase) its value like my parents house has. We aren't going to have the expanding population they had to support house prices. Especially if you are not buying new.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

OttoPilot wrote: »

Why do people have to buy? I'm 26. It's possible my house, if I bought now, would not hold (nevermind increase) its value like my parents house has. We aren't going to have the expanding population they had to support house prices. Especially if you are not buying new.

Well no one has to buy. I'm talking about people in this thread who want to buy, eventually they will have to do so at some point. Any property now will be worth more in 20 years, especially in Dublin.

kevinc565

OttoPilot wrote: »

Why do people have to buy? I'm 26. It's possible my house, if I bought now, would not hold (nevermind increase) its value like my parents house has. We aren't going to have the expanding population they had to support house prices. Especially if you are not buying new.

rent is dead money, in general. for temp workers or a falling market perhaps.

Hulk Hands

OttoPilot wrote: »

Why do people have to buy? I'm 26. It's possible my house, if I bought now, would not hold (nevermind increase) its value like my parents house has. We aren't going to have the expanding population they had to support house prices. Especially if you are not buying new.

Why wouldn't we have the expanding population? Have you seen project 2040? We're planning for an extra million in population by then. We're open to immigration as a society and Ireland will likely become more desirable to live in future, especially with climate concerns worldwide. While property prices may not stay high for other reasons (covid, normal downturns, our low density), it won't be for population reasons.

Limpy

The gov/housing department purchased 3 houses in my estate last year. 2 are occupied now, they put plenty of money into the 3rd one. Its been idle for 4 month's.

Its was the first time in awhile I heard of housing dept buying houses, I wonder how many and how much they spent (Nationaly). Two were auctions AFAIK.

James 007

Limpy wrote: »

The gov/housing department purchased 3 houses in my estate last year. 2 are occupied now, they put plenty of money into the 3rd one. Its been idle for 4 month's.

Its was the first time in awhile I heard of housing dept buying houses, I wonder how many and how much they spent (Nationaly). Two were auctions AFAIK.

What value do you believe your house is worth, or if you don't know do a quick check online

Villa05

The Future of Work

Today with Sean O Rourke discuss and expand many of the points raised here in relation to Work and Education from home

ittakestwo

Adelyn Late Sportsmanship wrote: »

Well no one has to buy. I'm talking about people in this thread who want to buy, eventually they will have to do so at some point. Any property now will be worth more in 20 years, especially in Dublin.

How do you know that?

OttoPilot

Adelyn Late Sportsmanship wrote: »

Well no one has to buy. I'm talking about people in this thread who want to buy, eventually they will have to do so at some point. Any property now will be worth more in 20 years, especially in Dublin.

Have pre boom peaks been reached yet, in real terms?

Hubertj

OttoPilot wrote: »

Have pre boom peaks been reached yet, in real terms?

what does realt terms mean? I think 1 of the recent reports said something like prices were still 17% below 2007 rates. I can't remember if that was for nationwide or Dublin prices etc...

ittakestwo

Hubertj wrote: »

what does realt terms mean? I think 1 of the recent reports said something like prices were still 17% below 2007 rates. I can't remember if that was for nationwide or Dublin prices etc...

In real terms means when adjusted for inflation.

Pivot Eoin

Interesting Web Visitor Stats of Mortgages.ie, DAFT.ie, MyHome.ie and Bonkers.ie over last few months:

Been slated a little here before for using web stats to back up a point, but there is a common 15-20% drop off for March usages and Sometimes 30% Year on Year Drop off. Be interesting to see if April is the same.

With a 15-20% decrease in people looking, coupled with a probable 20-30% increase in Mortgage Rejections, you have to imagine you will see a drop in competition for houses in certain sectors (Prob the affordable fixer upper 3 bed market).

I still think the good properties, turn-key 3/4 beds will hold the majority of their value though, which is the market I'm in.

sarahzxe

Hey looking for advice. Myself and husband have mortgage approval both incomes not affected thankfully. We viewed a house we both love and had an offer on it accepted for 325k.
However we decided to hold off as it was the week lockdown started. The house has actually been on market since last August and unoccupied originally up for 345k but seller has reduced it gradually this year.
We are wondering how to approach this and how much to negotiate off? We are keen to buy this year as paying high rent and husband nearly 35. House is outside of Dublin. Thanks all.

BillyBiggs

sarahzxe wrote: »

Hey looking for advice. Myself and husband have mortgage approval both incomes not affected thankfully. We viewed a house we both love and had an offer on it accepted for 325k.
However we decided to hold off as it was the week lockdown started. The house has actually been on market since last August and unoccupied originally up for 345k but seller has reduced it gradually this year.
We are wondering how to approach this and how much to negotiate off? We are keen to buy this year as paying high rent and husband nearly 35. House is outside of Dublin. Thanks all.

I’d offer them 300k and if they don’t take it walk away.

snotboogie

sarahzxe wrote: »

Hey looking for advice. Myself and husband have mortgage approval both incomes not affected thankfully. We viewed a house we both love and had an offer on it accepted for 325k.
However we decided to hold off as it was the week lockdown started. The house has actually been on market since last August and unoccupied originally up for 345k but seller has reduced it gradually this year.
We are wondering how to approach this and how much to negotiate off? We are keen to buy this year as paying high rent and husband nearly 35. House is outside of Dublin. Thanks all.

32 posts over 10 years and every single one of them asking for something. Why not contribute to the forum once in a while?

BluePlanet

snotboogie wrote: »

32 posts over 10 years and every single one of them asking for something. Why not contribute to the forum once in a while?

What does that contribute?
This is a public forum, not a meet snotboogie's standards forum.

fliball123

Pivot Eoin wrote: »

Interesting Web Visitor Stats of Mortgages.ie, DAFT.ie, MyHome.ie and Bonkers.ie over last few months:

Been slated a little here before for using web stats to back up a point, but there is a common 15-20% drop off for March usages and Sometimes 30% Year on Year Drop off. Be interesting to see if April is the same.

With a 15-20% decrease in people looking, coupled with a probable 20-30% increase in Mortgage Rejections, you have to imagine you will see a drop in competition for houses in certain sectors (Prob the affordable fixer upper 3 bed market).

I still think the good properties, turn-key 3/4 beds will hold the majority of their value though, which is the market I'm in.

Well there is not exactly a great selection currently up there at the moment so this is to be expected new properties coming in are not exactly great I have been keeping an eye on them. But if you want to gauge the Irish love affair with property count how many posts are on this thread. Then count how many threads are related to properties on boards and then count how many property websites there are in relation to the price of property. I don't think google's analytical engine takes this into consideration. Be under no illusion the Irish are mad for property for some reason

mcbert

snotboogie wrote: »

32 posts over 10 years and every single one of them asking for something. Why not contribute to the forum once in a while?

Bit harsh. So they dont use the site much. I dont see the problem.Thats how you drive away users

awec

sarahzxe wrote: »

Hey looking for advice. Myself and husband have mortgage approval both incomes not affected thankfully. We viewed a house we both love and had an offer on it accepted for 325k.
However we decided to hold off as it was the week lockdown started. The house has actually been on market since last August and unoccupied originally up for 345k but seller has reduced it gradually this year.
We are wondering how to approach this and how much to negotiate off? We are keen to buy this year as paying high rent and husband nearly 35. House is outside of Dublin. Thanks all.

If you got it for 300 would you be happy with that? Offer it and see how it goes. Might end up meeting in the middle.

combat14

offer 270-275k .. end up at 300k
Still only 10% drop at that given the chaos at the moment and it hasn't sold since last august .. I am seeing quite a few nice properties in my estate that havent sold since last summer either ....

Paulownia

The other property is in rural Laois and worth about 70k and too far away to commute