Property Market 2020

0gac3yjefb5sv7

cd76 wrote: »

It is different to 2008 .. a lot worse!
The shortage will evaporate. Already lots of Googlers/Linkedin/Facebook types who were renting are gone, never to return. Airbnb is gone for at least 2 years thus flooding the market with rentals. Comparing prices to 2006/08 is irrelevant. We are facing mass unemployment akin to the 80s. Likely that there will be an exodus of youth and highly qualified people thus dampning demand.
Great for you if you want to proceed. Having sold and bought multiple times my strong advice to anybody in a position to pull out of a Sale Agreed (on a purchase) is to do so. Go ahead on your sale if the buyer is happy and then rent for a year and then pounce. The EAs are stressed and getting desperate.. even in the past 48 I have got multiple calls from EAs looking for me to bid on some houses I viewed 3 months ago.
It'll be a great opportunity in a years time to buy.

A lot worse, no it's not. Not with regard to the property market. You obviously have vested interest and are trying to push no one to buy, helping to push prices down.

awec

TheSheriff wrote: »

Serious question here, as I am in secure employment and not proceeding, despite numerous EAs following up the past few days.

Why would I commit to say for example a mortgage of 1600 + a month now for 35 years, when I could wait a few months and get maybe the same mortgage for 1400+ or less. (example assumes I am a FTB)

I know the variables are all unknown, the length of time this will go on, the potential downside, the potential rebound after the downside.

I just don't get this basic fact of telling people proceed when people are on the fence about buying now. If you are on the fence, presumably you are in a position to wait it out ( as assuming if you needed a place to live you wouldn't be on the fence), so why would you jump now, at the biggest time of uncertainty in our economy?

The risk of waiting is always the same, the chance that you'll end up with nothing.

If house prices drop significantly, it'll be because demand drops. That happens because people who are in a position to buy a house now are no longer in a position to buy a house. This could be because they've lost their job. Or it could be that they're still employed, but banks are tightening their criteria and they no longer meet the bar for getting a mortgage. For example, the 10% deposit exemption for FTBs gets canned. HTB gets canned.

Imagine there are 5 posters on here, all on the fence, all waiting for their bargain. If prices collapse, it's because of these 5 people, maybe 3 of them are suddenly out of the market. So of the 5 people all waiting for that bargain, 2 will get a cheaper house, 3 will get nothing.

The choice is really buy now, and risk missing out on savings, or wait and risk getting nothing. You have to weigh up what you think is the worse possible outcome for you personally, having a higher mortgage than you otherwise could have, or being stuck renting for the forseeable future. There's no one size fits all answer to this question, depends on your circumstances.

There are other risks like supply in the area you want to live in completely drying up in the case of a crash, but that's dependent on how particular you are about where you want to live.

cd76

cd76 wrote: »

It is different to 2008 .. a lot worse!
The shortage will evaporate. Already lots of Googlers/Linkedin/Facebook types who were renting are gone, never to return. Airbnb is gone for at least 2 years thus flooding the market with rentals. Comparing prices to 2006/08 is irrelevant. We are facing mass unemployment akin to the 80s. Likely that there will be an exodus of youth and highly qualified people thus dampning demand.
Great for you if you want to proceed. Having sold and bought multiple times my strong advice to anybody in a position to pull out of a Sale Agreed (on a purchase) is to do so. Go ahead on your sale if the buyer is happy and then rent for a year and then pounce. The EAs are stressed and getting desperate.. even in the past 48 I have got multiple calls from EAs looking for me to bid on some houses I viewed 3 months ago.
It'll be a great opportunity in a years time to buy.

Very doomsday outlook.

The areas that are struggling now, will bounce back, without doubt. Pubs, hotels, travel, etc. will be the first to have a resounding bounce back. People are sitting at home scratching their holes, but they still have money coming in, and nowhere to spend it. Many are still being paid by employers, some are getting €350 off the dole.

People will be crying out for holidays, nights out and a meal with the family.

Retail in general will come back okay from this, in my view. The Government are already after introducing great measures to tackle exactly the issues you outline above.

House prices will not drop. They'll just remain the same as they are at the moment, as people will look at this as a 'temporary' issue, and many will presume the market will pick up right back where it started. That may not actually be the case, but you could be a long time waiting to prices to come down. Rents in the meantime are unlikely to drop much at all, so for every month you pay rent, you'd have likely been better off buying the house you wanted along the way.

I think of the big issues with people and property from the 'bubble', was that everyone was hellbent on 'trading up' and working their way up the property ladder. So they got stuck with houses and apartments they would never have wanted to stay in. Instead, this time around, most people are still looking just to buy their lifelong home, and as a result, things like negative equity won't mean as much this time around as people won't be actively looking to sell as much.

No I'm not saying Covid19 won't have any lasting impact. But It won't be the end of the world predictions that many are making it out to be, in my opinion.

awec

cd76 wrote: »

It is different to 2008 .. a lot worse!
The shortage will evaporate. Already lots of Googlers/Linkedin/Facebook types who were renting are gone, never to return. Airbnb is gone for at least 2 years thus flooding the market with rentals. Comparing prices to 2006/08 is irrelevant. We are facing mass unemployment akin to the 80s. Likely that there will be an exodus of youth and highly qualified people thus dampning demand.
Great for you if you want to proceed. Having sold and bought multiple times my strong advice to anybody in a position to pull out of a Sale Agreed (on a purchase) is to do so. Go ahead on your sale if the buyer is happy and then rent for a year and then pounce. The EAs are stressed and getting desperate.. even in the past 48 I have got multiple calls from EAs looking for me to bid on some houses I viewed 3 months ago.
It'll be a great opportunity in a years time to buy.

Complete nonsense.

cd76

Pheonix10 wrote: »

A lot worse, no it's not. Not with regard to the property market. You obviously have vested interest and are trying to push no one to buy, helping to push prices down.

Yes, I am very vested. I am a property investor. Are you an EA by any chance ?
I have seen multiple cycles here and in the UK. This is one of the biggest. As I said go ahead if you /others want. It's crashing and the calls are there to prove it.
Best of luck. Buyer opportunity in Spring 2021.

cd76

awec wrote: »

Complete nonsense.

Respect your view, but they are the facts. Best of luck.

cal naughton

Facebook are building a huge HQ in ballsbridge pure fantasy to think that they are not going to fill that building to the rafters with staff once it is built.

KilOit

cd76 wrote: »

Yes, I am very vested. I am a property investor. Are you an EA by any chance ?
I have seen multiple cycles here and in the UK. This is one of the biggest. As I said go ahead if you /others want. It's crashing and the calls are there to prove it.
Best of luck. Buyer opportunity in Spring 2021.

Will banks be as keen to loan? i agree if you are a cash buyer looking for investment property you are golden but doubt many turn key homes will be coming onto the market if a huge dip occurs

Graham

cd76 wrote: »

Already lots of Googlers/Linkedin/Facebook types who were renting are gone, never to return.

Holy crap, Google/LinkedIn and Facebook all closed down while nobody was looking.

:eek:

awec

cd76 wrote: »

Respect your view, but they are the facts. Best of luck.

Is that so?

Can you share a link to your source please?

pearcider

TheSheriff wrote: »

Serious question here, as I am in secure employment and not proceeding, despite numerous EAs following up the past few days.

Why would I commit to say for example a mortgage of 1600 + a month now for 35 years, when I could wait a few months and get maybe the same mortgage for 1400+ or less. (example assumes I am a FTB)

I know the variables are all unknown, the length of time this will go on, the potential downside, the potential rebound after the downside.

I just don't get this basic fact of telling people proceed when people are on the fence about buying now. If you are on the fence, presumably you are in a position to wait it out ( as assuming if you needed a place to live you wouldn't be on the fence), so why would you jump now, at the biggest time of uncertainty in our economy?

Four types of people bullish on property in here. Property investors eager to ensure their investments keep going up or at least don’t fall. Estate agents and builders whose wages depend on property market. Landlords eager to ensure continued steady rental stream. Recent buyers hoping to find confirmation that they didn’t buy at the peak.

Fact is property prices have pretty much doubled in 8 years. So unless you believe wages have doubled in 8 years too you are mad to buy now.

Browney7

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Very doomsday outlook.

The areas that are struggling now, will bounce back, without doubt. Pubs, hotels, travel, etc. will be the first to have a resounding bounce back. People are sitting at home scratching their holes, but they still have money coming in, and nowhere to spend it. Many are still being paid by employers, some are getting €350 off the dole.

People will be crying out for holidays, nights out and a meal with the family.

Retail in general will come back okay from this, in my view. The Government are already after introducing great measures to tackle exactly the issues you outline above.

House prices will not drop. They'll just remain the same as they are at the moment, as people will look at this as a 'temporary' issue, and many will presume the market will pick up right back where it started. That may not actually be the case, but you could be a long time waiting to prices to come down. Rents in the meantime are unlikely to drop much at all, so for every month you pay rent, you'd have likely been better off buying the house you wanted along the way.

I think of the big issues with people and property from the 'bubble', was that everyone was hellbent on 'trading up' and working their way up the property ladder. So they got stuck with houses and apartments they would never have wanted to stay in. Instead, this time around, most people are still looking just to buy their lifelong home, and as a result, things like negative equity won't mean as much this time around as people won't be actively looking to sell as much.

No I'm not saying Covid19 won't have any lasting impact. But It won't be the end of the world predictions that many are making it out to be, in my opinion.

There's some truth no doubt in what you say but to think that house prices in an already flat market won't drop after this shock is fantasy. I'm not expecting a major crash but a 10 to 20% fall in the next 18 months.

Pay rise and bonus next year? "Sorry mate lost a full quarter's worth of earnings, need to tighten things up". Those stock options you were given a few years ago you were banking on - worth nothing now, sorry. Tax cuts we promised, sorry, we all have to tighten our belts and marginal rate has to go up.

Very difficult to see other European governments continuing to tolerate our race to the bottom tax haven model for the likes of Facebook and Google after this. God knows what "America First" policies Trump is going to do in the run up to the election.

This is a transformational black swan event.

Logan Roy

I'm actually amazed how many economists there are on Boards. Is there somewhere I can go to read their work in depth or do they only post on here?

Pheonix10

Pheonix10 wrote: »

A lot worse, no it's not. Not with regard to the property market. You obviously have vested interest and are trying to push no one to buy, helping to push prices down.

The whole economy is going to go down, of course property will be affected. How anyone thinks otherwise is beyond me.

TheSheriff

Deleted User wrote: »

Very doomsday outlook.

The areas that are struggling now, will bounce back, without doubt. Pubs, hotels, travel, etc. will be the first to have a resounding bounce back. People are sitting at home scratching their holes, but they still have money coming in, and nowhere to spend it. Many are still being paid by employers, some are getting €350 off the dole.

People will be crying out for holidays, nights out and a meal with the family.

Retail in general will come back okay from this, in my view. The Government are already after introducing great measures to tackle exactly the issues you outline above.

House prices will not drop. They'll just remain the same as they are at the moment, as people will look at this as a 'temporary' issue, and many will presume the market will pick up right back where it started. That may not actually be the case, but you could be a long time waiting to prices to come down. Rents in the meantime are unlikely to drop much at all, so for every month you pay rent, you'd have likely been better off buying the house you wanted along the way.

I think of the big issues with people and property from the 'bubble', was that everyone was hellbent on 'trading up' and working their way up the property ladder. So they got stuck with houses and apartments they would never have wanted to stay in. Instead, this time around, most people are still looking just to buy their lifelong home, and as a result, things like negative equity won't mean as much this time around as people won't be actively looking to sell as much.

No I'm not saying Covid19 won't have any lasting impact. But It won't be the end of the world predictions that many are making it out to be, in my opinion.

Somewhat agree with what you are saying above, but some counterpoints.

Many are still being paid by employers, some are getting €350 off the dole. I dont think anyone who lost their job and is getting the above will be rushing out to blow money on holidays/clothes/meals once this is over.

People will be crying out for holidays, nights out and a meal with the family. There will not be a point in time at which we are all told life goes back to normal, and suddenly pubs, holiday resorts, restaurants are packed out again. The recovery is going to be an extremely slow drag - people will be fearful of getting/spreading this virus until a vaccine is developed. This will have ongoing effects on the economy. Its likely even after measures are lifted many more businesses will go under because of the economic drag. You will not be pushing through a crowded bar to get a drink anytime soon.

Retail in general will come back okay from this, in my view. Agree with retail as its less social interaction, but it will still suffer an economic hangover.

Rents in the meantime are unlikely to drop much at all, so for every month you pay rent, you'd have likely been better off buying the house you wanted along the way Rents are dropping, there was evidence of this before C19. We are renters, and have kept our eye daily on the rental market in areas we would like. What we have observed is we now regularly see two bedroom apartments at a price point previously exclusively containing one beds.

My other half works for large multinational tech company in Dublin. The entire company is WFH now. Many have left Dublin (some have left Ireland) and are all working remotely- very successfully I might add. This has been a total game changer for us in terms of where we have to live. If our respective jobs successfully allow WFH going forward we will leave Dublin - no other reason to be here. Several friends in our circle who were pursuing properties across Dublin are now thinking the same - one who has been based in Dublin for years is working remotely from their home (UK). Its totally changed our perception of where we want to buy and I suspect we are not alone.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

cd76 wrote: »

Yes, I am very vested. I am a property investor. Are you an EA by any chance ?
I have seen multiple cycles here and in the UK. This is one of the biggest. As I said go ahead if you /others want. It's crashing and the calls are there to prove it.
Best of luck. Buyer opportunity in Spring 2021.

No I'm not an EA. But property prices will not fall even close to 50pc this time. 20pc at a maximum. You may have a different opinion on it.

Logan Roy

I also work for a massive MNC, WFH is going well but there's no way it's going to be extended beyond what the government deems necessary.

The majority of companies will expect employees back in the office 5 days a week once this blows over.

dubrov

Logan Roy wrote:

I'm actually amazed how many economists there are on Boards. Is there somewhere I can go to read their work in depth or do they only post on here?

I wouldn't be relying on economists to predict the future.

They are great at telling you why things happened afterwards though

PommieBast

pearcider wrote: »

Four types of people bullish on property in here. Property investors eager to ensure their investments keep going up or at least don’t fall. Estate agents and builders whose wages depend on property market. Landlords eager to ensure continued steady rental stream. Recent buyers hoping to find confirmation that they didn’t buy at the peak.

Quite a few bears in here as well wishing for the opposites. Dublin's property market is so dysfunctional is probably could go either way.

cnocbui

pearcider wrote: »

Four types of people bullish on property in here. Property investors eager to ensure their investments keep going up or at least don’t fall. Estate agents and builders whose wages depend on property market. Landlords eager to ensure continued steady rental stream. Recent buyers hoping to find confirmation that they didn’t buy at the peak.

Fact is property prices have pretty much doubled in 8 years. So unless you believe wages have doubled in 8 years too you are mad to buy now.

Property prices have been increasing after they first fell 50%; you left out that tiny detail. Now you are perfectly entitled to think that that fire sale market bottom actually represents where the true value of properties should lie, but I think you are deluding yourself. Those 2009-12 prices were at below replacement cost, which is just not economically sustainable or healthy. Fortunately it's a self correcting problem so prices have been rising.

Outside of Dublin prices were just getting back to where they should be, which is a market value at least equal to the cost of buying the land and building a house on it. There are three planning notices near me that went up recently, obviously because it has become worthwhile to build again. Earthworks have started on one, so that one will probably go ahead, but the other two might not if prices do fall for any length of time.

The real problem, if you ask me, is wage stagnation that has been rife for a decade. That is the problem behind the lack of affordability, not prices.

Donald Trump

cnocbui wrote: »

Outside of Dublin prices were just getting back to where they should be, which is a market value at least equal to the cost of buying the land and building a house on it.

"The cost of buying the land" is the very very grey area.

Agricultural land is about 10k an acre and is overpriced at that (relative to the return).

There is no fundamental reason why an acre of land which is being sold as a site or has been designated as a rural cluster should be worth 100k. There is no fundamental reason why a 4 acre site at the edge of a small town or village should be being priced at 2 million Euro.

We rezone it, let the developers battle against each other to push up the price, then quietly subsume that into the "cost of housing".

Sean Dunne and his 50m an acre in Ballsbridge. Wasn't that it? 50m an acre. It only made that because the thicks bid each other up to it, in the hopes that they could in turn squeeze it out of the punters.

There simply needs to be a punitive use-it-or-lose it approach to zoned land. Obviously with reasonable conditions in terms of use - maybe 5 years after being rezoned you get a 10% levy on its value per annum, rising year on year thereafter.

El Gato De Negocios

Was on to our bank earlier. We got AIP in January with an exemption on deposit as second time buyers. The bank (PTSB) told me that our AIP and exemption will remain valid until early July however they have pulled all exemptions ie new applicants cannot get one and if we apply for an extension on the AIP in june, we wont get the exemption again. Thats as it stands today and is subject to change but we have pretty much decided we are going to sit tight for 12 months and see how things play out.

voluntary

Fitch downgraded AIB and BOI with such a comment:

But it also predicts that the quality of the institutions’ assets will weaken more than it had expected and revenue will be challenged due to reduced levels of business and charges arising from bad loans.

Fitch also assesses that a permanent rise in unemployment and distress in the SME sector, leading small firms to require overdrafts and credit facilities, leaves the two big Irish banks more vulnerable.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0401/1127933-fitch-downgrades-outlook-on-boi-and-aib/

GreeBo

TheSheriff wrote: »

Serious question here, as I am in secure employment and not proceeding, despite numerous EAs following up the past few days.

Why would I commit to say for example a mortgage of 1600 + a month now for 35 years, when I could wait a few months and get maybe the same mortgage for 1400+ or less. (example assumes I am a FTB)

I know the variables are all unknown, the length of time this will go on, the potential downside, the potential rebound after the downside.

I just don't get this basic fact of telling people proceed when people are on the fence about buying now. If you are on the fence, presumably you are in a position to wait it out ( as assuming if you needed a place to live you wouldn't be on the fence), so why would you jump now, at the biggest time of uncertainty in our economy?

What if you wait and then can't find s house you want until fixing prices prices leave you paying 1800 a month?
How do you think prices recovered from the last crash?

mees2020

Villa05 wrote: »

So ye are both correct

A There is demand for housing

B if the housing is too expensive then that demand is not met and deemed unaffordable

Market in Dublin had stalled for sometime prior to Corona virus
If supply was less than affordable demand. Prices would have continued to rise in that period

A recession would impact affordable demand and prices would need to fall to meet that demand to achieve a sale

Fully agree.
Property market is not a heterogeneous, but there are categories and subcategories. Each have own price/demand/affordability criteria. There is an expensive category of nice houses in posh areas, which cost a fortune, but may stay on the market for years. There is a mid level, which could be either a large quality built houses in commuter belt or cheaper builds in a high density Dublin estate and demand is much higher for these, but they are not really affordable for families with single income or 2 low incomes. There could be some cheap ~200k houses in some dodgy Dublin suburbs, but nobody wants it.
The price for each category will be shifting at its own pace, again because of different demand/affordability. You can probably find some average numbers, but this will be like "the average human has one breast and one testicle" or "average temperature in a hospital, including the morgue".
Imho, we are now dealing with 3 types of crisis at once - biological, sociological and economical. We were about to have a political - Brexit, but luckily avoided it for now. This makes me think there will be a downshift in prices. How much it will depend on how long these three crisis will last. Property prices will certainly look like a \/ graph, mirroring the coronavirus /\ graph.

pearcider

GreeBo wrote: »

What if you wait and then can't find s house you want until fixing prices prices leave you paying 1800 a month?
How do you think prices recovered from the last crash?

House prices recovered because the Federal Reserve printed 29 trillion dollars and bought all the mortgages off the banks. It cost Ireland around 80 billion which is around 2 years of tax revenue...The question is did that fix the problem and can we do that again. The answer is look at the share prices of the banks. Also the unemployment rate in this recession is going to make 2008 look great.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Anyone who was considering selling or is currently on the market selling, will likely now not sell unless forced to. Just like buyers, they can wait a year or five for things to come back.

Graham

voluntary wrote: »

Fitch downgraded AIB and BOI with such a comment

also went on to say

GDP contraction also highly likely in Ireland, before recovering in 2021

also noted that the EU has approved compensation via state aid for losses arising from the Covid-19 crisis and therefore this could lead to the financial impact on the banks being reduced

they should be reasonably isolated from the risk of higher wholesale funding costs

pearcider

Julissa Bitter Jeep wrote: »

Anyone who was considering selling or is currently on the market selling, will likely now not sell unless forced to. Just like buyers, they can wait a year or five for things to come back.

What individual people want is meaningless in a free market. In 2012 there was 4600 properties up for sale at any one time in Dublin.

https://www.daft.ie/report/ronan-lyons-2012q2?fr=touch

Who would sell in such a terrible market? Loads of people.

Donald Trump

Julissa Bitter Jeep wrote: »

Anyone who was considering selling or is currently on the market selling, will likely now not sell unless forced to. Just like buyers, they can wait a year or five for things to come back.

Of course. Sellers can wait. But they can always wait. If your house had doubled in price from 200k last year to 400k this year and you thought it was going to go up to 500k ne4xt year and 1m in 5 years you could still wait. It doesn't matter what the level is at today if you are going to think like that always. Nobody would ever sell unless they thought they were at the top of the market

If you are selling one house to buy another, the impact is less than for the buyers who are perhaps first time buyers.