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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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Get Real

sarahzxe wrote: »

Hey looking for advice. Myself and husband have mortgage approval both incomes not affected thankfully. We viewed a house we both love and had an offer on it accepted for 325k.
However we decided to hold off as it was the week lockdown started. The house has actually been on market since last August and unoccupied originally up for 345k but seller has reduced it gradually this year.
We are wondering how to approach this and how much to negotiate off? We are keen to buy this year as paying high rent and husband nearly 35. House is outside of Dublin. Thanks all.

I wouldn't be too concerned if in your position. Try for lower if you want, it might pay off. But if there's no budge on their part, it's to be your family home.

Say you walk away, another year of high rent, and uncertainty, or who knows if banks will be lending in a years' time?

If you can afford the repayments, it's cheaper than renting, and provides certainty for the next 40years, what does it matter to you that in 2 years' time on paper it's worth 295k. In 30 years time it'll be worth more than you paid for it, and you'll own it.

Short term fluctuations, up or down, don't matter a bit, as you're not buying it to make money, you're buying it to live in.

[Deleted User]

Paulownia wrote: »

My mother died recently and she left me the house we live in and I’ll have to pay tax on the value when she died which seems very unfair because I have another house

Paulownia wrote: »

The other property is in rural Laois and worth about 70k and too far away to commute

Just to add some context........

Rock77

snotboogie wrote: »

32 posts over 10 years and every single one of them asking for something. Why not contribute to the forum once in a while?

Of all the posts I’ve read on Boards, this is the worst.....

Marius34

sarahzxe wrote: »

Hey looking for advice. Myself and husband have mortgage approval both incomes not affected thankfully. We viewed a house we both love and had an offer on it accepted for 325k.
However we decided to hold off as it was the week lockdown started. The house has actually been on market since last August and unoccupied originally up for 345k but seller has reduced it gradually this year.
We are wondering how to approach this and how much to negotiate off? We are keen to buy this year as paying high rent and husband nearly 35. House is outside of Dublin. Thanks all.

Was offer accepted in March or before? That could make a different to the value expected on the house. If it's before Match it would be reasonable to offer for 300K, and hope to get for 310K-315K. If it was during March, seller may have already accounted for downturn, and probably would not be willing to slice it more, although still try reduce the offer to some extent would still make sense.

KaiserSochez

snotboogie wrote: »

32 posts over 10 years and every single one of them asking for something. Why not contribute to the forum once in a while?

Lockdown clearly getting to ya....you should go for a walk instead of “contributing” such a ridiculous response.

GreeBo

bubblypop wrote: »

In a recession, where does demand come from?

A recession doesnt change the fact that people need somewhere to live.

Padre_Pio

GreeBo wrote: »

A recession doesnt change the fact that people need somewhere to live.

It changes their ability to buy.

I'm sure thousands would love to go on holidays, but there's zero demand right now.

combat14

GreeBo wrote: »

A recession doesnt change the fact that people need somewhere to live.

Exactly and that's why there were almost 10,000 homeless before this recession started and why tens of thousands had to emigrate in the last recession as they couldn't pay rent, buy or even afford to live at home with mammy and daddy.

Recessions fundamentally affect people's income, taxes and a whole host of other variables.. including ..people's ability to pay and ... ultimately ... house prices and rents naturally as we saw all to well in the recent past.

Just because we at present might think we have the ability to pay that's not necessarily the case for the majority of people during a recession whether they want to buy/rent or not.

Zenify

GreeBo wrote: »

A recession doesnt change the fact that people need somewhere to live.

You ridicule posts on here with a lack substance towards a view of price drops. Then you come out and say something like this.

eagle eye

Zenify wrote:

You ridicule posts on here with a lack substance towards a view of price drops. Then you come out and say something like this.

There's nothing wrong with his statement. It's just common sense.

zweton

Can I assume if both of us are on covid payment we wont be entertained?

Have deposit saved and was hoping to buy june/july time. Have been approved in principle.

Padre_Pio

zweton wrote: »

Can I assume if both of us are on covid payment we wont be entertained?

Have deposit saved and was hoping to buy june/july time.

I think you need to be permanently employed for banks to entertain you. People on probation, temp contract and self employed usually have issues.
AIP is just so you know what you can offer when looking at houses.

zweton

yeah seems its changed for anyone on covid payment now so. great!

Padre_Pio

zweton wrote: »

yeah seems its changed for anyone on covid payment now so. great!

Sure it's always worth a call, worst they can say no.

Villa05

It was the youth of the country that paid the price for the last recession.

0 hours contracts
Reduced pay in the public service regardless of whether they performed better than their older much higher paid colleagues
Work for free on internships
Temporary contracts
Ever increasing rents

This cohort are the Ftb of today, I just wonder how healthy their finances are and if their really is this pent up demand for entry level houses at current prices

When you take out the bottom rung of the ladder, everything above it falls as well

It's also notable that the government are prepping the youth of today saying that youth unemployment will rise substantially in this coming recession

It seems odd that when older folk are disadvantaged, "we are all in this together" to help get to the other side safely. Eg covid 19, health insurance pricing

When it's our sons and daughters are affected negatively like recessions, spiralling accommodation costs, employment terms and conditions, car insurance this togetherness is lost and we allow a system that pulls up the ladder for the people in it severely affecting new entrants

How long will this continue?

GreeBo

OttoPilot wrote: »

Why do people have to buy? I'm 26. It's possible my house, if I bought now, would not hold (nevermind increase) its value like my parents house has. We aren't going to have the expanding population they had to support house prices. Especially if you are not buying new.

Have you planned your savings, investments, pension around paying rent until the day you die?

If not, then you need to buy a house.

Steer55

Villa05 wrote: »

It was the youth of the country that paid the price for the last recession.

0 hours contracts
Reduced pay in the public service regardless of whether they performed better than their older much higher paid colleagues
Work for free on internships
Temporary contracts
Ever increasing rents

This cohort are the Ftb of today, I just wonder how healthy their finances are and if their really is this pent up demand for entry level houses at current prices

When you take out the bottom rung of the ladder, everything above it falls as well

It's also notable that the government are prepping the youth of today saying that youth unemployment will rise substantially in this coming recession

It seems odd that when older folk are disadvantaged, "we are all in this together" to help get to the other side safely. Eg covid 19, health insurance pricing

When it's our sons and daughters are affected negatively like recessions, spiralling accommodation costs, employment terms and conditions, car insurance this togetherness is lost and we allow a system that pulls up the ladder for the people in it severely affecting new entrants

How long will this continue?

Yes, you right, young people now in their early thirties had it really hard in the last recession. After finally getting on their feet over the last four or five years, they are going to be dealt another blow with the coming recession. More taxes, more unemployment and little chance of emigration this time round.

combat14

GreeBo wrote: »

Have you planned your savings, investments, pension around paying rent until the day you die?

If not, then you need to buy a house.

And that's the problem.. most people havent planned their finances at all.. people will be renting till the day they die .. house prices are too dear .. rents are too high to save for a deposit and in 20 years time when this generation of renters start to retire they are in for a big shock.....

because they wont be able to afford today's 2200+ dublin rents ... and it's too late to buy and something massive will have to give in this country ... I.e. the state will have to somehow pick up the pieces ...

either rents will collapse, state builds houses, emigration or massive old age homelessness

but yes unfortunately most people dont plan their finances at all let alone for paying rent when retired which they wont be able to do (unless maybe sharing with strangers at final stage of life)

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

It was the youth of the country that paid the price for the last recession.

0 hours contracts
Reduced pay in the public service regardless of whether they performed better than their older much higher paid colleagues
Work for free on internships
Temporary contracts
Ever increasing rents

This cohort are the Ftb of today, I just wonder how healthy their finances are and if their really is this pent up demand for entry level houses at current prices

When you take out the bottom rung of the ladder, everything above it falls as well

It's also notable that the government are prepping the youth of today saying that youth unemployment will rise substantially in this coming recession

It seems odd that when older folk are disadvantaged, "we are all in this together" to help get to the other side safely. Eg covid 19, health insurance pricing

When it's our sons and daughters are affected negatively like recessions, spiralling accommodation costs, employment terms and conditions, car insurance this togetherness is lost and we allow a system that pulls up the ladder for the people in it severely affecting new entrants

How long will this continue?

You make some good points here. FG had a tough job when they took office in 2011. They did some things very very well getting the country going again.
However, they missed opportunities such as proper public sector reform instead of just cutting pay etc. No government in this country will have the balls to on the vested interests In the public service.
Regarding accommodation I believe they were starting from a low base in that there was no construction industry for a few years? Added to that FF stopped building social housing a long time ago? What could they have done better here? Is there not a shortage of tradesmen to build houses at a faster rate? Is planning a sh*t show? There seems to be objections to everything everywhere.

snoopboggybog

combat14 wrote: »

And that's the problem.. most people havent planned their finances at all.. people will be renting till the day they die .. house prices are too dear .. rents are too high to save for a deposit and in 20 years time when this generation of renters start to retire they are in for a big shock.....

because they wont be able to afford today's 2200+ dublin rents ... and it's too late to buy and something massive will have to give in this country ... I.e. the state will have to somehow pick up the pieces ...

either rents will collapse, state builds houses, emigration or massive old age homelessness

but yes unfortunately most people dont plan their finances at all let alone for paying rent when retired which they wont be able to do (unless maybe sharing with strangers at final stage of life)

The whole of Ireland doesn't revolve around Dublin. People can get houses but just need to commute. Its a crap situation but that's the reality of it it at the moment.

A young person is better off house sharing and saving for a mortgage that way or living at home with parents until they have a deposit saved.

You can get a house in Portlaois for well under 200K

awec

Hubertj wrote: »

You make some good points here. FG had a tough job when they took office in 2011. They did some things very very well getting the country going again.
However, they missed opportunities such as proper public sector reform instead of just cutting pay etc. No government in this country will have the balls to on the vested interests In the public service.
Regarding accommodation I believe they were starting from a low base in that there was no construction industry for a few years? Added to that FF stopped building social housing a long time ago? What could they have done better here? Is there not a shortage of tradesmen to build houses at a faster rate? Is planning a sh*t show? There seems to be objections to everything everywhere.

They built social houses.

The problem was they were also selling them by letting social tenants buy the public stock! FF were particularly bad for this.

The houses were sold far below market value, thanks to the nature of the scheme, which meant they cannot be easily replaced.

beanyb

Steer55 wrote: »

Yes, you right, young people now in their early thirties had it really hard in the last recession. After finally getting on their feet over the last four or five years, they are going to be dealt another blow with the coming recession. More taxes, more unemployment and little chance of emigration this time round.

To be honest this is a big reason why I am going to go ahead with my planned purchase, in spite of the potential price falls. I'm 34. I graduated from college in 2007 and was faced with years of internships, low pay, high rent, etc etc. I've finally gotten to the point where I earn enough (still not a huge amount) to have saved a deposit and have been approved for a mortgage I can afford that will get me somewhere I can live for the foreseeable in a location that suits me. If I don't do it now, who knows if I ever will be able to! I have been living in house shares since my mid 20s and am just in need of my own space.

combat14

beanyb wrote: »

To be honest this is a big reason why I am going to go ahead with my planned purchase, in spite of the potential price falls. I'm 34. I graduated from college in 2007 and was faced with years of internships, low pay, high rent, etc etc. I've finally gotten to the point where I earn enough (still not a huge amount) to have saved a deposit and have been approved for a mortgage I can afford that will get me somewhere I can live for the foreseeable in a location that suits me. If I don't do it now, who knows if I ever will be able to! I have been living in house shares since my mid 20s and am just in need of my own space.

sounds like my sister 12 years ago in 2008 and she is still in negative equity... cant even get the house revalued to get a better interest rate ....

guess it doesn't matter if it is the house for life .. very best of luck with it

GreeBo

combat14 wrote: »

And that's the problem.. most people havent planned their finances at all.. people will be renting till the day they die .. house prices are too dear .. rents are too high to save for a deposit and in 20 years time when this generation of renters start to retire they are in for a big shock.....

because they wont be able to afford today's 2200+ dublin rents ... and it's too late to buy and something massive will have to give in this country ... I.e. the state will have to somehow pick up the pieces ...

either rents will collapse, state builds houses, emigration or massive old age homelessness

but yes unfortunately most people dont plan their finances at all let alone for paying rent when retired which they wont be able to do (unless maybe sharing with strangers at final stage of life)

Unless people stop having babies, rents wont collapse just because current renters retire...
Whats more likely is that todays Dublin renters become tomorrows Clare renters once they retire.

GreeBo

combat14 wrote: »

sounds like my sister 12 years ago in 2008 and she is still in negative equity... cant even get the house revalued to get a better interest rate ....

guess it doesn't matter if it is the house for life .. very best of luck with it

negative equity is irrelevant as long as you obey rule #1
"somewhere I can live for the foreseeable in a location that suits me"

combat14

GreeBo wrote: »

negative equity is irrelevant as long as you obey rule #1
"somewhere I can live for the foreseeable in a location that suits me"

up to a point.. when you are paying a higher interest rate than you need to 12-13+ years later because your house is still in negative equity it has some bearing

there is always some economic cost

The_Conductor

combat14 wrote: »

And that's the problem.. most people havent planned their finances at all.. people will be renting till the day they die .. house prices are too dear .. rents are too high to save for a deposit and in 20 years time when this generation of renters start to retire they are in for a big shock.....

Unfortunately, most people don't have the luxury of 'planning' their finances- a significant majority of people live from paycheque to paycheque- where any unexpected expense can cause serious financial hardship.

We do need a coherent discussion and planning for our aging population- which will have to account for the needs of people as they retire and how they plan to live their twilight years.

combat14 wrote: »

because they wont be able to afford today's 2200+ dublin rents ... and it's too late to buy and something massive will have to give in this country ... I.e. the state will have to somehow pick up the pieces ...

Its all well and good suggesting the state will somehow pick up the pieces. The fact of the matter is- a sizable cohort of our electorate do not want the state to pickup the pieces and are not willing to pay for it.

We have a very generous social welfare system- which even before the Covid crisis was only in positive territory because of our low unemployment rate- but our dependency ratio was increasing- to the extent that even with 'full employment' our social welfare system was going to be broke by 2028.

The state has been living beyond its means- and into this mix we have to try and figure how to fund retirement for generations to come, including the provision of residential accommodation to evolve to meet people's changing needs.

It just doesn't add up. Its a political hot potato though that no-one is willing to acknowledge.

combat14 wrote: »

either rents will collapse, state builds houses, emigration or massive old age homelessness

The current policy has been to boot the issue down the road- however, we've run out of road in a big way.

Come what may- taxation will increase, people's standard of living will fall, the dependency ratio is about to hit a rapid incline.

What I imagine will happen- is the construction of blocks of apartments for the elderly- in a sort of assisted living communities- akin to our recent forays into this experiment- but on a large scale.

It is politically poison for the state to provide these- so they'll probably end up in the for-profit sector, unless this is hit on the head and the implications are spelt out to the electorate in cold hard facts.

combat14 wrote: »

but yes unfortunately most people dont plan their finances at all let alone for paying rent when retired which they wont be able to do (unless maybe sharing with strangers at final stage of life)

Its not a solution. In any event- and contrary to the prevailing commentary- we don't have a massive shortage of accommodation- we have accommodation- its a case of where is the accommodation physically located, what services, facilities and amenities does the accommodation have at its disposal- and can we migrate these services, facilities and amenities to reflect people's changing requirements as they age.

I'd argue that the answer is 'yes' we can evolve to meet the needs of an aging population- the bigger question is- how do we pay for it.

Mad_maxx

Villa05 wrote: »

It was the youth of the country that paid the price for the last recession.

0 hours contracts
Reduced pay in the public service regardless of whether they performed better than their older much higher paid colleagues
Work for free on internships
Temporary contracts
Ever increasing rents

This cohort are the Ftb of today, I just wonder how healthy their finances are and if their really is this pent up demand for entry level houses at current prices

When you take out the bottom rung of the ladder, everything above it falls as well

It's also notable that the government are prepping the youth of today saying that youth unemployment will rise substantially in this coming recession

It seems odd that when older folk are disadvantaged, "we are all in this together" to help get to the other side safely. Eg covid 19, health insurance pricing

When it's our sons and daughters are affected negatively like recessions, spiralling accommodation costs, employment terms and conditions, car insurance this togetherness is lost and we allow a system that pulls up the ladder for the people in it severely affecting new entrants

How long will this continue?

the elderly have always been uber prioritised in this country, often at the expense of the youth

masculinist

GreeBo wrote: »

Have you planned your savings, investments, pension around paying rent until the day you die?

If not, then you need to buy a house.

If you start to look longingly at lifestyles in other countries and worry about your future in Ireland and are still young enough to move then maybe you shouldn't.
If you emigrate but service a mortgage at home, then doesn't your mortgage status also change from home owner to investor ?

hometruths

Mad_maxx wrote: »

the elderly have always been uber prioritised in this country, often at the expense of the youth

hasn't stopped some people suggesting forcing the elderly out of their homes to make way for the young which is utter madness.